Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 207: Sinema Vérité

(+) Yeah! (+)

CelesMyUserName posted...

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1061965651470925825

... wha

Can this bear be a primary challenger for Trump?
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Arizona elections only go into recounts when the vote count is fewer than 200 votes or 0.001% of the total, whichever is lower. So McSally would need to make up significant ground to even force a recount.
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Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa should all be dropping today. Pinal and Pima should be most of the rest of their non-provisional votes. Maricopa will likely have one more day after today.

We should know which way the race is going within the next four hours!
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I just realized the genius of the Trumpy Bear

They never EXPLICITLY tie it to Trump.

So theyre making money off of his pseudo-likeness without permission

In this case I approve

(I also like how its not an American Flag blanket, its an American Flag themed blanket. No flag code violations now!)
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https://twitter.com/jules_su/status/1061863141720637440?s=21

Pretty scary thread that will take you from That cant be what it is; youre overreacting to yep this school has major major problems with bigotry.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Arizona elections only go into recounts when the vote count is fewer than 200 votes or 0.001% of the total, whichever is lower. So McSally would need to make up significant ground to even force a recount.

That's only for automatic recounts. McSally could sue for a recount and potentially get it.
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ChichiriMuyo posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Arizona elections only go into recounts when the vote count is fewer than 200 votes or 0.001% of the total, whichever is lower. So McSally would need to make up significant ground to even force a recount.

That's only for automatic recounts. McSally could sue for a recount and potentially get it.

https://twitter.com/Eric_Spencer/status/1062035219681697792
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/jules_su/status/1061863141720637440?s=21

Pretty scary thread that will take you from That cant be what it is; youre overreacting to yep this school has major major problems with bigotry.

.
...

what
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https://www.azleg.gov/viewdocument/?docName=https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00672.htm

16-672. Contest of state election; grounds; venue

A. Any elector of the state may contest the election of any person declared elected to a state office, or declared nominated to a state office at a primary election, or the declared result of an initiated or referred measure, or a proposal to amend the Constitution of Arizona, or other question or proposal submitted to vote of the people, upon any of the following grounds:

...

5. That by reason of erroneous count of votes the person declared elected or the initiative or referred measure, or proposal to amend the constitution, or other question or proposal submitted, which has been declared carried, did not in fact receive the highest number of votes for the office or a sufficient number of votes to carry the measure, amendment, question or proposal.

I'm not sure how you can be denied a recount if you sue on these grounds, but I'm not a lawyer. This was the provision which led me to believe that was a viable option.
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Yeah, understandable, but the guy I just posted has this listed in his Twitter bio:

State Election Director for Arizona Secretary of State; election law attorney; former U. S. Army infantry officer and Iraq War veteran

So I'm just going to trust he knows what he's talking about until I see someone saying otherwise! Even then, I'd probably trust the election director for the Arizona SoS. Like if he's wrong here he should be fired.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Yeah, understandable, but the guy I just posted has this listed in his Twitter bio:

State Election Director for Arizona Secretary of State; election law attorney; former U. S. Army infantry officer and Iraq War veteran

So I'm just going to trust he knows what he's talking about until I see someone saying otherwise! Even then, I'd probably trust the election director for the Arizona SoS. Like if he's wrong here he should be fired.

I agree that he should know, that's supposed to be his job. But I don't know the guy, and I tend to find political statements on Twitter to be open to questioning. He may well be right, but from a legal standpoint it seems ridiculous that any law could be exempt from challenge.
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Really good Pima numbers just dropped and Sinema is up almost 36k now. Still like 20k outstanding from Pima too. Race might be called depending on Maricopa in roughly 15 minutes.
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/jules_su/status/1061863141720637440?s=21

Pretty scary thread that will take you from That cant be what it is; youre overreacting to yep this school has major major problems with bigotry.

Burn the whole fuckin school down.

...and please god let the AZ election be called, so this topic can stop being about every update for it lol
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I like this topic being about the AZ election more than yelling at each other and certain person claiming that the Republicans losing the House was part of a "Red Wave".
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Nevermind they are only updating 19k of the outstanding ballots in Maricopa. AMAZING holiday and love our troops and country. It is frustrating that the ballots aren't coming in at the rate I'd like, but I would like to emphasize that this holiday is wonderful and anyone who says otherwise is a filthy commie.
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Stupid holiday is a bit harsh. Its not like this is Columbus Day
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Suprak hates the troops confirmed.
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No idea what you guys are talking about.
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For real though, I would like to wish a Happy Veterans Day to any veterans on B8

Not any veterinarians though
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Tony is a veteran! I know that for sure.

Ulti is a veterinarian. Just more proof VETS>vets suck it Ulti

I used to enjoy FFD's yearly "hey I'm going to try and get as much free food as I can today watch out" summaries, but sadly he has disappeared off the board.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/jules_su/status/1061863141720637440?s=21

Pretty scary thread that will take you from That cant be what it is; youre overreacting to yep this school has major major problems with bigotry.

Burn the whole fuckin school down.

...and please god let the AZ election be called, so this topic can stop being about every update for it lol

What is this not enough Chaos for ChaosTony
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FINE

I'll stop posting updates if it is annoying.

You guys can go back about yelling at each other about who can and cannot be responded to.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

FINE

I'll stop posting updates if it is annoying.

You guys can go back about yelling at each other about who can and cannot be responded to.

I like hearing about the updates.
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So I wonder what happens if Palm Beach and Broward cant complete their recounts in time.
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Trump invades, demolishes the entire county, and builds a country club over it.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

Trump invades, demolishes the entire county, and builds a country club over it.

Might honestly be an improvement
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Hey if everyone else likes the updates, by all means.
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I like the updates as well
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Please keep posting the updates, Suprak. I keep checking this topic to read them.
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I like teasing Suprak over the updates!
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I enjoy them. Seeing as I live in AZ.
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Well then.

MARICOPA INCOMING.

(Two smaller counties posted but I won't do those as a compromise to Tony and also because they weren't tremendously interesting)
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Here, have this incredibly obtuse headline for dinner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2018/11/11/surging-wealth-inequality-is-a-happy-sign-that-life-is-becoming-much-more-convenient/
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So I wonder what happens if Palm Beach and Broward cant complete their recounts in time.

It goes to the Supreme Court, who cite 2000 precedent of "whatever the will of the people may be, the deadline's more important, current totals stand"?
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Maricopa added 18.6k, so they still have...a lot out there. Roughly 145k or so. They only have two days left to do this so hopefully tomorrow is a huge drop!

Sinema gained 2k votes and now leads by 38,197. Maricopa went to Sinema by +3 on Election Day but +11 in this batch, similar to the numbers she's been pulling down from all mail ins before this.

There are only 174k total ballots left. I can do some quick calculations later tonight when they update final outstanding ballots but...McSally needs a double miracle at this point. Some places might start calling it today, even.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Here, have this incredibly obtuse headline for dinner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2018/11/11/surging-wealth-inequality-is-a-happy-sign-that-life-is-becoming-much-more-convenient/

Uhhh

Who the fuck is his audience here.

Also what "fabulous services" are our 1%currently providing
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Eddv posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

Here, have this incredibly obtuse headline for dinner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2018/11/11/surging-wealth-inequality-is-a-happy-sign-that-life-is-becoming-much-more-convenient/

Uhhh

Who the fuck is his audience here.

Also what "fabulous services" are our 1%currently providing

Driverless Pizza Hut delivery, apparently
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https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1062143663835353089

AP called it. Don't think McSally has conceded yet though.
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Whoops never mind.

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

Classy move!
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Ahem.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Genuinely did not think we'd get this one! I have more thoughts I'll post later since I've been following this and reading up on Sinema/McSally like crazy, but this is a great pickup.

Arizona + Nevada are so much easier to defend than Missouri/Indiana/North Dakota. Like if we could've held on to Florida, you would 1000% take that trade. This won't be an uphill battle to defend in six years for either of those.
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Awesome

Suprak the Stud posted...

Arizona + Nevada are so much easier to defend than Missouri/Indiana/North Dakota. Like if we could've held on to Florida, you would 1000% take that trade. This won't be an uphill battle to defend in six years for either of those.

Depends on your perspective; another way to look at it is that having incumbents in those red state seats is the only way they're not R locks for the next 20 years...!
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Well, McCaskill and Donnelly were only in those seats in the first place due to tremendous mistakes made by the GOP.

You don't just have a "legitimate rape" Akin drop into your laps every election.

But yeah, I get your point. I'd rather take Arizona and Nevada than any of those three I listed but I can see the argument the other way around. You need a really good candidate to hold onto a red state, and they weren't that.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

But yeah, I get your point. I'd rather take Arizona and Nevada than any of those three I listed but I can see the argument the other way around. You need a really good candidate to hold onto a red state, and they weren't that.

Like Tester...!
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Yay! I don't think I could stand it if McSally was ugly about it considering she used to be my house rep and her last election got very ugly.
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Sinema winning is huge there.

Arizonans - is there someone else who can defeat McSally for Syls seat?
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

But yeah, I get your point. I'd rather take Arizona and Nevada than any of those three I listed but I can see the argument the other way around. You need a really good candidate to hold onto a red state, and they weren't that.

Like Tester...!

Please don't make me write another ode to the man, the myth, the legend that is Jon Tester. Because I'll do it.
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Eddv posted...

Sinema winning is huge there.

Arizonans - is there someone else who can defeat McSally for Syls seat?

(Not from Arizona but I've been following very closely)

I'll post later, but Sinema is a uniquely extraordinary candidate that did everything right to somehow beat the very best candidate the republicans could find. Like, McSally is a war hero and has zero blemishes anywhere and Sinema still beat her. There aren't any Sinema's kicking around anymore, which is a problem.

Demographics are changing, but I think it would be a mistake to go too far left in two years just yet. Garcia, who ran as a progressive, just his teeth knocked in, while Sinema who campaigned as an independent moderate managed to win. Someone who is *potentially* interesting that I saw brought up a lot in tweets (and who is clearly interested) is this guy:

https://twitter.com/GrantWoods?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Former republican attorney general who changed party affiliations and endorsed Sinema. He is not as young or dynamic as Sinema but definitely has that appeal to independents that helped Sinema win. I'll let locals chime in if there are any other big names in the wings, but I hadn't seen any.

Then again, I wouldn't have predicted Sinema being as good as a candidate as she was two years ago. So who knows.
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Something semi-interesting is that the seat McSally left to run was on the short list targeted by Democrats for a potential pickup, and the seat Sinema left to run was on the short list targeted by Republicans for a potential pickup.

Democrats held onto Sinema's seat and flipped McSally's. The won the house popular vote in the state as well.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Here, have this incredibly obtuse headline for dinner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2018/11/11/surging-wealth-inequality-is-a-happy-sign-that-life-is-becoming-much-more-convenient/

Jesus, this is the dumbest argument.

Because progress is impossible unless the rich can afford to buy a 5th yacht next year.
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Yeah wow his feed is entirely him thanking people for endorsing his run haha
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