Current Events > Really good analysis on the Grinch leak for Smash

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Muffinz0rz
10/31/18 3:11:01 PM
#1:


https://www.videogameaccountant.com/2018/10/29/grinch-leak/

Long but worth it
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TerrifyingRei
10/31/18 3:11:38 PM
#2:


wait, why the fuck would they use the Grinch in Smash Bros?

i haven't played a smash game since Melee but... the Grinch? Really?
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The Trent
10/31/18 3:12:35 PM
#3:


there is simply no way in hell that reading that is worth it
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Muffinz0rz
10/31/18 3:15:35 PM
#4:


The Trent posted...
there is simply no way in hell that reading that is worth it

Here's the conclusion:

In closing, lets review our fake scenario one last time.

Mr. Nasty Troll wants to trick people. He picks 7 characters that will fit the CSS, account for the 108 stages (4 new series plus a Super Mario RPG stage), account for the gun, and account for the music menu. Then, he makes two murals as well as a diagram. First, he makes 7 unique drawing, adding in little detail like characters interacting. He moves most of the characters, even across different layers. He also redraws parts that were obscured before. He does this in about 26 days (Chad Dorf was posted Sept 29 and the leak came out Oct 24). He then uses his company equipment to make all of this. Then he uploads it onto Snapchat rather than doing it directly to Reddit or 4Chan and hopes people will catch it and upload it where it can reach people.

What detractors try to do is argue each and every little point. However, they fail to look at the evidence holistically. As a result, they fail to see the big picture. It is possible for any one of these to be faked, but not all of them at the same time. A reason I have presented my argument in such a way is to show the absurdity of this idea. Perhaps you could criticize me of being hyperbolic, and thats somewhat true; however, the facts presented and the relation between them is enough to show why the leak being a fake is, well, silly. Consider Occams Razor. The theory that requires the least explanation is the better one. With that in mind, let me tell you what I think really happened.

ACP PLV is working on both Smash Bros and The Grinch material as both come out around the same time. Someone at the company took a Snapchat of it, maybe because they were disgruntled, quitting, or hoping they wouldnt get caught. Some friends pick it up and share it in a private Discord thinking it wont get out. Someone leaks it onto 4Chan. The reason this agrees with the Chad Dorf post is because he had legit information (as happens sometimes on 4Chan). Things like the CSS and the music menu fit into place because its real and Namco Bandai meant for it to be that way.

Now, I ask you reader, between those two, which sounds more plausible given what we know. Which one seems believable. Which requires less to explain. I figure you will say the latter.

I think by this point Ive developed a strong enough case for why the Grinch Leak is indeed real. Nevertheless, Im sure there are some people who will still disbelieve it because I can not fully prove its really. These people require that I either drive to their house and so them the material in the leak or Sakurai to descend from the heaven and tell them its real. Still, to these people I would say do you really believe that you can hand wave away all of the evidence together. Do you believe that someone went through all this effort, put all these pieces into place, planned this for a month, and did it in such a way as they wouldnt be recognized. Detractors like to claim it is very easy, and if thats so why have we not had something like this until now? Why have we not had someone trying to make a fake of the mural. Why has nobody tried to sneak other references into their fakes to make them real. Moreover, why are we to believe that when people cant even predict what characters will be in Smash that somehow someone did for a fake.

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Not removing this until Pat Benatar is in Super Smash Bros. (Started 8/31/2010)
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Muffinz0rz
10/31/18 3:15:43 PM
#5:


To those who are still unsure of this, I ask you: why are you doubtful of this. Step back and ask why you dont believe it. I wouldnt be a lack of evidence. So whats the reason then? If the evidence has yet to convince you, what is preventing you from accepting that it very well might be real? I understand that some people like to say that you should check your hype at the door, but when we are going to admit something is true even if it run contrary to the collective pessimism?

To the reasonable people left in the room, consider the following. The video mentioned earlier in this essay about ACP PLV has been taken down over the weekend. The company has yet to make any statement on it. Almost every insider is denying it or has not reported on it. Likewise, GameXplain spent 20 minutes on the ESRB leak yet spoken about this leak (despite the insurmountable evidence) for no more than 5 minutes. So, considering the evidence I presented in this essay, Ill leave it to your imagination of what all this could mean.

---
Not removing this until Pat Benatar is in Super Smash Bros. (Started 8/31/2010)
2018 NFLB Autumnsim (3-5): https://imgur.com/MZ9KYms
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AvantgardeAClue
10/31/18 3:22:39 PM
#6:


This game has to be out in less than two months. The game carts are probably already pressed somewhere. A leak this close is bound to happen.
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#7
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legendarylemur
10/31/18 3:29:23 PM
#8:


TerrifyingRei posted...
wait, why the fuck would they use the Grinch in Smash Bros?

i haven't played a smash game since Melee but... the Grinch? Really?

It's called a Grinch leak because the proof was a Grinch promotional material that wasn't released until a few days later after the leak
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Dathrowed1
10/31/18 4:34:50 PM
#9:


He should have said the reason why I believe it's real is because of logical fallacy and error, not logic.
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#10
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#11
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Muffinz0rz
11/01/18 10:50:47 AM
#12:


Conflict posted...
To those who are still unsure of this, I ask you: why are you doubtful of this. Step back and ask why you dont believe it. I wouldnt be a lack of evidence. So whats the reason then? If the evidence has yet to convince you, what is preventing you from accepting that it very well might be real? I understand that some people like to say that you should check your hype at the door, but when we are going to admit something is true even if it run contrary to the collective pessimism?


This guy looks so fucking dumb right now

I didn't read the whole thing but that sounds just as cocky as the leakers tbh
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Not removing this until Pat Benatar is in Super Smash Bros. (Started 8/31/2010)
2018 NFLB Autumnsim (3-5): https://imgur.com/MZ9KYms
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Master_Bass
11/01/18 11:13:06 AM
#13:


AvantgardeAClue posted...
This game has to be out in less than two months. The game carts are probably already pressed somewhere. A leak this close is bound to happen.

Yeah, I imagine they are. The Smash branded Switch comes out tomorrow, but that only comes with a code for a digital copy.
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Zack_Attackv1
11/01/18 11:14:09 AM
#14:


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CyricZ
11/01/18 11:15:30 AM
#15:


Goodness this gave me a chuckle.
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CyricZ
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Dathrowed1
11/01/18 11:38:05 AM
#16:


Muffinz0rz posted...
The Trent posted...
there is simply no way in hell that reading that is worth it

Here's the conclusion:

In closing, lets review our fake scenario one last time.

Mr. Nasty Troll wants to trick people. He picks 7 characters that will fit the CSS, account for the 108 stages (4 new series plus a Super Mario RPG stage), account for the gun, and account for the music menu. Then, he makes two murals as well as a diagram. First, he makes 7 unique drawing, adding in little detail like characters interacting. He moves most of the characters, even across different layers. He also redraws parts that were obscured before. He does this in about 26 days (Chad Dorf was posted Sept 29 and the leak came out Oct 24). He then uses his company equipment to make all of this. Then he uploads it onto Snapchat rather than doing it directly to Reddit or 4Chan and hopes people will catch it and upload it where it can reach people.

What detractors try to do is argue each and every little point. However, they fail to look at the evidence holistically. As a result, they fail to see the big picture. It is possible for any one of these to be faked, but not all of them at the same time. A reason I have presented my argument in such a way is to show the absurdity of this idea. Perhaps you could criticize me of being hyperbolic, and thats somewhat true; however, the facts presented and the relation between them is enough to show why the leak being a fake is, well, silly. Consider Occams Razor. The theory that requires the least explanation is the better one. With that in mind, let me tell you what I think really happened.

ACP PLV is working on both Smash Bros and The Grinch material as both come out around the same time. Someone at the company took a Snapchat of it, maybe because they were disgruntled, quitting, or hoping they wouldnt get caught. Some friends pick it up and share it in a private Discord thinking it wont get out. Someone leaks it onto 4Chan. The reason this agrees with the Chad Dorf post is because he had legit information (as happens sometimes on 4Chan). Things like the CSS and the music menu fit into place because its real and Namco Bandai meant for it to be that way.

Now, I ask you reader, between those two, which sounds more plausible given what we know. Which one seems believable. Which requires less to explain. I figure you will say the latter.

I think by this point Ive developed a strong enough case for why the Grinch Leak is indeed real. Nevertheless, Im sure there are some people who will still disbelieve it because I can not fully prove its really. These people require that I either drive to their house and so them the material in the leak or Sakurai to descend from the heaven and tell them its real. Still, to these people I would say do you really believe that you can hand wave away all of the evidence together. Do you believe that someone went through all this effort, put all these pieces into place, planned this for a month, and did it in such a way as they wouldnt be recognized. Detractors like to claim it is very easy, and if thats so why have we not had something like this until now? Why have we not had someone trying to make a fake of the mural. Why has nobody tried to sneak other references into their fakes to make them real. Moreover, why are we to believe that when people cant even predict what characters will be in Smash that somehow someone did for a fake.

In conclusion, the Grinch leak was fake
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Calwings
11/01/18 12:08:43 PM
#17:


If I were back at my computer, I'd flood this topic with laughing anime girl gifs. But since I'm on mobile, I'll just post one.

pGwHJjk
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