Current Events > IQ Test

(+) Yeah! (+)

1/2. This isn't the Monty Hall illusion.
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Why isn't it 1/3? There's only one box that will pull out another gold once you pulled a gold from it. So you're sol if you chose the wrong box hence 1/3.
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25 percent? Its one of two boxes. So it's either zero or 50 percent. Am I right? I think i was right the first time when i looked at it for 2 seconds but started overthinking it. It would be 25 percent. yes?

Sayoria posted...

1/2. This isn't the Monty Hall illusion.

Nope, it's betrand's, and you're wrong.
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kg88222 posted...

25 percent? Its one of two boxes. So it's either zero or 50 percent. Am I right? I think i was right the first time when i looked at it for 2 seconds but started overthinking it. It would be 25 percent. yes?

In that case it would be 20% because it's the 1/3 chance then the chance to pull the other gold ball which is 1/2 so probability adding and you get 20%
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yeah because it could be zero percent. It's either 50 or 0. None of the selections are correct here. It's 50 or 0. Thank you. I am a genius lol. if you want to average that out it's 25 percent. But yeah. I would have to think about it more again.

MelzezDoor posted...

Why isn't it 1/3? There's only one box that will pull out another gold once you pulled a gold from it. So you're sol if you chose the wrong box hence 1/3.

If you stick with your current box, you have a 1/2 chance. Since it will either be a second gold or a silver within.

If you change boxes, you are giving up one you know has a gold in it. At that point, the odds would skew far lower.
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Yeah it's much better to stay with your box but you're still not gonna get that other gold if you didn't choose right the first time.
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It says if you pick from the same box though. so it's 50 or zero. If you average that out it's 25 percent. The actual probability is 50 or zero. But it's also 25 percent. So if you average all that out it's 33 percent? I don't know.

kg88222 posted...

It says if you pick from the same box though. so it's 50 or zero. If you average that out it's 25 percent.

Normally this would be true but you wouldn't average it out if the third box was involved. Since it isn't you're only concerned with the 3 golds in the two boxes so it's only 50%.
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2/3 makes no sense. It says you picked from the same box, and already have a gold from the first pick. Therefore it CANNOT be the third box.
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my guess out of those answers would be 33 percent after i think about it. That's just a guess though.

The 3rd box doesnt really matter because it never had any ballls in it and you didn't select from that box. The actual probability is 50 or 0 percent but it depends on if you have to average that out then include the average or something. Forget about the 3rd box because it's irrelevant. You are choosing from 2 boxes basically.

I keep re-reading the explanation and I still don't understand how it isn't 1/2, lol.

"What is the probability you'll get another gold ball?"

Well, it's either Box A, in which case I will, or it's Box B, in which case I won't.
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2SweetforTurtle posted...

2/3 makes no sense. It says you picked from the same box, and already have a gold from the first pick. Therefore it CANNOT be the third box.

It does make sense. There are a total of 3 gold balls. If you take 1 golden ball from a random box, the odds that you took it from the box with 2 gold balls is 2/3, while the odds of taking it from the one with just 1 gold ball is 1/3. Thus, once you take 1 golden ball you know that there is a 2/3 chance that it's from the box with 2 golds.

It's not going to be 100 percent either because you either chose from 1 or the other. It's going to be 50 or zero and you are choosing from the same box.

So 33 percent i guess if one of those answers is correct that is given it has to be 33 percent after parsing all of that. Its not going to be 50 or 0. It's going to be one or the other. So 33 percent is the only answer that can possibly be true. maybe 2/3. I dont know.

Choco posted...

@Rika_Furude posted...

Choco posted...

Rika_Furude posted...

50/50

You could only have drawn a ball from box 1 or 2. Since box 3 does not have a gold ball, you can dismiss it entirely from the equation.

The only question now is if you drew a ball from box 1 or 2.

So, its a 50/50 chance.

Not that hard.

please be joking

you have 5 words to explain how i'm wrong, otherwise you're trolling.

5 words aren't enough because you have a fundamental misunderstanding of stochastics

if you draw a ball from the gold+silver box, the chance of getting the gold ball is only 50%

if you draw a ball from the 2gold box, the chance of getting a gold ball is 100%

the boxes themselves have equal probability when we don't know the result of drawing, but since we know a gold ball was drawn, we have more information and know it was more likely the 2gold box

tl;dr: see the post tc made above this one

you pick a box, then a ball. not the other way around.
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right you are picking a box so it's either the one with 2 or 1. i could have it backwards. It could be really complicated math or very simple. And if you do the math it could be any of those answers. I'll have to think about it.

CrestedTax posted...

2SweetforTurtle posted...

2/3 makes no sense. It says you picked from the same box, and already have a gold from the first pick. Therefore it CANNOT be the third box.

It does make sense. There are a total of 3 gold balls. If you take 1 golden ball from a random box, the odds that you took it from the box with 2 gold balls is 2/3, while the odds of taking it from the one with just 1 gold ball is 1/3. Thus, once you take 1 golden ball you know that there is a 2/3 chance that it's from the box with 2 golds.

Youre ignoring the fact that it states youre choosing from the SAME box. The total number of gold balls is irrelevant. Once you choose a box, theres a 50 percent chance that youll get a gold ball (three gold and three silver balls). Picking a gold ball out of the box that you chose eliminates the box that has zero gold balls from the equation.
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none of those poll options are correct
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I'm guessing there are lots of possible outcomes so the answer is probably the highest possible percentage. That's just a guess though.

I think it probably has a lot of debate. What the actual answer is you'd have to do the math and there is an actual answer. Everything else is just theory.

2SweetforTurtle posted...

Youre ignoring the fact that it states youre choosing from the SAME box. The total number of gold balls is irrelevant. Once you choose a box, theres a 50 percent chance that youll get a gold ball (three gold and three silver balls). Picking a gold ball out of the box that you chose eliminates the box that has zero gold balls from the equation.

Exactly. You had to have chosen the right box first so that probability cannot be ignored. The 1/3 it takes will take priority and therefore change the outcome of the last gold ball so 16 2/3% total.
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I wanted to vote 2/3 but went with 1/2 cuz I'm a lyingg cheat and read the first few posts

So fuck y'all and your sound logic
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There are 2 boxes. One has 1 white ball. You just removed one gold ball. So there are now 2 gold balls and 1 white. So 2/3? Again you are picking from the same box though. But i don't think it matters. It's that simple.

MelzezDoor posted...

2SweetforTurtle posted...

Youre ignoring the fact that it states youre choosing from the SAME box. The total number of gold balls is irrelevant. Once you choose a box, theres a 50 percent chance that youll get a gold ball (three gold and three silver balls). Picking a gold ball out of the box that you chose eliminates the box that has zero gold balls from the equation.

Exactly. You had to have chosen the right box first so that probability cannot be ignored. The 1/3 it takes will take priority and therefore change the outcome of the last gold ball so 16 2/3% total.

Im not entirely sure what you mean by taking priority.

Are you basically saying the math of this is 1/3 divided by 1/2? Which in turn is solved by multiplying by the reciprocal, leaving you with 1/3x2/1. Therefore 2/3?

1/3 = possibility of picking the box with no gold balls
1/2 = possibility of drawing a gold ball
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TomNook20 posted...

Sayoria posted...

1/2. This isn't the Monty Hall illusion.

Nope, it's betrand's, and you're wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

That's all it is.
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if you say it's 50 or 0. it's 25 percent. It's a paradox in ways.

Tyranthraxus posted...

TomNook20 posted...

Sayoria posted...

1/2. This isn't the Monty Hall illusion.

Nope, it's betrand's, and you're wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

That's all it is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
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I think none of it has been factually proven though. There could be a way to disprove those theories. Set up a simulation and run it and calculate the percentage. Has anyone actually done this?

There has got to be a way where you can just pick from one box and eliminate all the ones where you pick from the box that has no gold balls from the start. It doesn't need to be that complicated. Just calculate the percentage of every time you pick from one of those 2 boxes and what the probability actually is after that.

You would have to eliminate all the ones where you pick from that box has two somehow and know it's that one. Then after the first try. Calculate that percentage.

2SweetforTurtle posted...

Im not entirely sure what you mean by taking priority.

Are you basically saying the math of this is 1/3 divided by 1/2? Which in turn is solved by multiplying by the reciprocal, leaving you with 1/3x2/1. Therefore 2/3?

1/3 = possibility of picking the box with no gold balls
1/2 = possibility of drawing a gold ball

Precisely. Though the wording of the question could be interpreted differently and if it had asked with respect to the number of wrong choices (silver balls), in other words not limiting to the same box, then you could inverse the reciprocals.
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kg88222 posted...

There has got to be a way where you can just pick from one box and eliminate all the ones where you pick from the box that has no gold balls from the start. It doesn't need to be that complicated. Just calculate the percentage of every time you pick from one of those 2 boxes and what the probability actually is after that.

Stop.

You are not picking a box.

You are picking a ball.

The ball just ends up being gold.

Think of it like this if it helps.

1. Pick a box.
2. Draw a ball from the box.
3. If it's silver, discard the experiment and start over at step 1.
4. If it's gold, how likely was it that you picked it from the box that has 2 gold balls versus how likely is it that you picked it from the box with one gold ball.

You are twice as likely to have grabbed it from the 2 ball box than the 1 ball box.

Because the two ball box has 100% chance of drawing a second gold ball, and the other box doesn't have any, the real question you're asking is "what is the probability that the gold ball I picked came from the 2 ball box?"

That's 2/3 because you're twice as likely to get it there as you are the one ball box.
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Right i get that. there are 3 gold balls and 1 white. You just picked 1 gold ball. So now there are 2 gold and one white. So two thirds. It seems that simple but there are reasons why people are using paradox's and why people think it's bertrand and think it's 2/3's or the boy girl paradox and think it's 50 percent.

Common sense says it's 2/3's. But it's not actually been proven. There are ways to prove that as factual. I'm not saying through brute force. Intellectual means too. But it seems to me like it hasn't actually been 100 percent proven.

With actual math or through just simulating it somehow and seeing what the percentage is.

People are using theory and not really explaining why in a factual sense.

Its pretty easy to reason your way to 2/3. There are three gold balls that you could potentially pull first, and two of them are in the same box. Thus your second pull will also be gold in two out of three of those scenarios
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There are reasons why people think it's the boy girl paradox and it's actually 50 percent too. It hasn't been factually proven. People are using theory instead of trying to just figure it out factually. I went through it in my head and had the same paradoxes.

There is always that factor that you are picking from the same box that comes into play or doesn't. That doesn't seem to be factually proven.

But yeah 2/3's makes sense to me. There were 3 gold balls and 1 white. There are now 2 gold balls and one white. So 2/3.

But there are reasons people think that is the hopeful probability as well. You are still picking from the same box so it can be said it's either 50 or zero as well where if you average that out it's 25 percent.

If i average out 2/3 and 1/4. The answer is then something else. And I could be looking at it wrong. So could all of you. People could be doing the math in the proper way or they couldn't be.

You are picking from the same box. 2/3 makes the most sense to me. But again an argument could be made that is a hopeful estimate.

If a simulation was done somehow to see what the actual percentage is you could then try to figure out why that is. Or vice versa and just actually prove it somehow through mathematical reasoning.

I get why people think it's bertrands because you have to remove the balls themselves. And then there are basically a certain number of outcomes. It's 2/3 and that probably is the right answer. We could all me morons too. When you first look at it it's different than that. Why it's called bertrands paradox. But people also think it's the boy girl paradox if you take it a step further.

1/3 dude
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kg88222 posted...

If i average out 2/3 and 1/4. The answer is then something else. And I could be looking at it wrong. So could all of you. People could be doing the math in the proper way or they couldn't be.

You are picking from the same box. 2/3 makes the most sense to me. But again an argument could be made that is a hopeful estimate.

If a simulation was done somehow to see what the actual percentage is you could then try to figure out why that is. Or vice versa and just actually prove it somehow through mathematical reasoning.

I get why people think it's bertrands because you have to remove the balls themselves. And then there are basically a certain number of outcomes. It's 2/3 and that probably is the right answer. We could all me morons too. When you first look at it it's different than that. Why it's called bertrands paradox. But people also think it's the boy girl paradox if you take it a step further.

The only difference between this and the boy girl paradox is that there are only 3 total possibilities as opposed to 4 for the boy girl paradox.

If you redo the boy girl paradox assuming that because a genie said so that GB didn't exist, only BB, BG, GG, you end up with the same results.
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It could be 62.228831424 percent and we are all totally missing it is all i'm saying. I think it's 2/3 but people are basing this off theory. And yes some things are factually proven and there is no argument. T his may be too but it seems somewhat sketchy to me.

the world is a sphere. It's not flat. That's factually proven. There is a sun and stars in the sky. Most iq tests are full of stuff that is factually proven and there is an actual answer to as well.

This is beyond the realm of being proven at this point. It's based on theory that could be correct and seems like it is. Maybe it has been proven.

Most iq tests measure intelligence within the realm of things that are already factually proven and have mathematical indisputable evidence that are proven. This iq test is on steroids because as it stands it's still based on theory within the scope of what people can comprehend so far. Some of you may be right but it's not proven.

I'm actually wrong in my math on one part myself. Because if you pick from the box that has 2 gold balls the chances of you getting another one is 100 percent. If you picked from the other box the chances of you getting another ball is 0 percent. So in that case the probability would be 50 percent.

I think that's the answer if you really look at probabilities. The answer woul dbe the middle one here. I think that is the factual answer.

2/3's is the hopeful answer. 1/3 is the negative one. 50 percent is probably the correct one. It's a paradox. When all else fails pick the one in the middle.

If you read the internet there are all these ridiculous explanations too where people think there are tons of different outcomes. I think there are two possible outcomes. 100 percent or 0. The answer is 50 percent. I was right in the first place. Just had the math wrong on what the two possible outcomes are.

Wikipedia and all these sites are wrong.

I got it right but that's only because I'm already familiar with the Monty hall problem, which is very similar.
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It's funny because i was just trying to figure out myself and i'm reading crap on quora where these people are talking like they are rocket scientists and they are all wrong.

I got the right answer though ultimately. I knew something wasn't right there. Even surrounded by stupid people.

I knew it was bit more complicated than I thought. Voted the wrong answer anyways.
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RedZaraki posted...

2/3

You're telling me removing one gold ball from the pool actually increases the odds that the next one will also be gold?

What sorcery is this
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don't smoke cigarettes or read internet drama. It affects your deductive reasoning. This one was kind of tricky though because you have to look at it the right way. But even still. I usually score 150+ on iq tests. I can feel my head is just sick of being lied to by people. Must focus my thoughts and stay away from the internet for a while or something.

RedZaraki posted...

What is the probability that the next ball you take from the same box will also be gold?

I voted 1/2. Are we supposed to put the gold ball back into the box, because if that's the case then sure, 2/3 would be the answer.
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it's 1/2, you either pull it or you don't
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