Current Events > New poll shows Democrats leading the race for congress by 15 points!

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Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 1:44:46 PM #1:	https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521 Even with gerrymandering, 15 points is enough for them to pick up around 40 to 50 seats. They only need 24 for a majority. --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896502789] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521 Even with gerrymandering, 15 points is enough for them to pick up around 40 to 50 seats. They only need 24 for a majority.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 1:47:44 PM #2:	Up --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896502974] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Up</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Muffinz0rz 02/21/18 1:48:26 PM #3:	why did you up your topic literally less than 3 mins of it being posted --- Not removing this until Pat Benatar is in Super Smash Bros. (Started 8/31/2010) 2018 NFLB Summersim team: https://i.imgur.com/nj2rziP.png <cite>Muffinz0rz posted [p:896503013] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>why did you up your topic literally less than 3 mins of it being posted</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
voldothegr8 02/21/18 1:48:31 PM #4:	Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. --- Oda break tracker 2018- 1 (1) \| THE Ohio State: 11-2 \| Oakland Raiders: 6-10 Super Mario Maker Profile: 1237-0000-0073-02FE <cite>voldothegr8 posted [p:896503017] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Antifar 02/21/18 1:49:31 PM #5:	voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. If I told you had a 90% chance of surviving the next 24 hours, would you take those odds? --- kin to all that throbs <cite>Antifar posted [p:896503078] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> If I told you had a 90% chance of surviving the next 24 hours, would you take those odds?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 1:50:44 PM #6:	voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2% --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896503153] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2%</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
StucklnMyPants 02/21/18 1:50:56 PM #7:	Thinks back to the 2016 polls --- Who looks outside, dreams; who looks inside, awakes. <cite>StucklnMyPants posted [p:896503168] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Thinks back to the 2016 polls</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 1:51:30 PM #8:	StucklnMyPants posted... Thinks back to the 2016 polls Genocet_10-325 posted... voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2% --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896503211] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>StucklnMyPants posted...</cite> <quote>Thinks back to the 2016 polls</quote> <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2%</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BLAKUboy 02/21/18 1:52:07 PM #9:	StucklnMyPants posted... Thinks back to the 2016 polls The polls that were well within the margin of error you mean? --- Aeris dies if she takes more damage than her current HP - Panthera http://signavatar.com/26999_s.png <cite>BLAKUboy posted [p:896503246] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>StucklnMyPants posted...</cite> <quote>Thinks back to the 2016 polls</quote> The polls that were well within the margin of error you mean?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
voldothegr8 02/21/18 1:55:03 PM #10:	Genocet_10-325 posted... voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ --- Oda break tracker 2018- 1 (1) \| THE Ohio State: 11-2 \| Oakland Raiders: 6-10 Super Mario Maker Profile: 1237-0000-0073-02FE <cite>voldothegr8 posted [p:896503408] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2%</quote> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 1:56:10 PM #11:	voldothegr8 posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ A 28% chance is still over 1 in 4. --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896503467] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2%</quote> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote> A 28% chance is still over 1 in 4.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
southcoast09 02/21/18 1:56:34 PM #12:	Lol --- Stand for the anthem or sit for the game! <cite>southcoast09 posted [p:896503496] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Lol</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Antifar 02/21/18 1:57:24 PM #13:	voldothegr8 posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit. --- kin to all that throbs <cite>Antifar posted [p:896503554] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote> Hillary had a 2% lead in the polls and she won the popular vote by 2%</quote> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/</quote> .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 1:58:42 PM #14:	Muffinz0rz posted... why did you up your topic literally less than 3 mins of it being posted StucklnMyPants posted... Thinks back to the 2016 polls voldothegr8 posted... Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls. --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896503635] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Muffinz0rz posted...</cite> <quote>why did you up your topic literally less than 3 mins of it being posted</quote> <cite>StucklnMyPants posted...</cite> <quote>Thinks back to the 2016 polls</quote> <cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>Remember when Hillary was 90% to win? LOL polls.</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 02/21/18 1:59:30 PM #15:	Antifar posted... .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit. I always think about one of my fellow interns who worked for the professor that was responsible for the huffpost's polling averages he would constantly bitch about how nate silver was misleading people into thinking Trump had more of a chance than he did. I think huffpost at one point had Trump as low as 1% though I dont know if that was his final score lol --- He would make his mark, if not on this tree, then on that wall; if not with teeth and claws, then with penknife and razor. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:896503677] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote>.286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit.</quote> I always think about one of my fellow interns who worked for the professor that was responsible for the huffpost's polling averages he would constantly bitch about how nate silver was misleading people into thinking Trump had more of a chance than he did. I think huffpost at one point had Trump as low as 1% though I dont know if that was his final score lol</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:01:07 PM #16:	Antifar posted... .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit. .286 average would be horrible in basketball --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896503759] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote> .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit.</quote> .286 average would be horrible in basketball</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 2:02:17 PM #17:	KingCrabCake posted... Antifar posted... .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit. .286 average would be horrible in basketball 538 had it at 28% Trump 73% Hillary in terms of chance of winning. You recognize that a 28% chance is still a pretty decent chance do you not? --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896503828] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote> .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit.</quote> .286 average would be horrible in basketball</quote> 538 had it at 28% Trump 73% Hillary in terms of chance of winning. You recognize that a 28% chance is still a pretty decent chance do you not?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
voldothegr8 02/21/18 2:03:55 PM #18:	LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats? --- Oda break tracker 2018- 1 (1) \| THE Ohio State: 11-2 \| Oakland Raiders: 6-10 Super Mario Maker Profile: 1237-0000-0073-02FE <cite>voldothegr8 posted [p:896503927] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 2:04:44 PM #19:	voldothegr8 posted... LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats? So are you saying 28% chance to win is actually 0? --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896503971] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats?</quote> So are you saying 28% chance to win is actually 0?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Antifar 02/21/18 2:09:06 PM #20:	voldothegr8 posted... LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats? The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7 --- kin to all that throbs <cite>Antifar posted [p:896504216] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats?</quote> The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 2:10:53 PM #21:	Antifar posted... voldothegr8 posted... LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats? The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7 I think they think the 72\28 was supposed to be an actual poll and not a % chance to win, lol --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896504312] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats?</quote> The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7</quote> I think they think the 72\28 was supposed to be an actual poll and not a % chance to win, lol</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:11:43 PM #22:	Genocet_10-325 posted... KingCrabCake posted... Antifar posted... .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit. .286 average would be horrible in basketball 538 had it at 28% Trump 73% Hillary in terms of chance of winning. You recognize that a 28% chance is still a pretty decent chance do you not? I was making fun of the poster who used a baseball analogy....not sure how you didnt catch that --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896504372] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote> .286 would be a very respectable batting average in baseball, only some sort of innumerate moron would pretend that player had no chance of getting a hit.</quote> .286 average would be horrible in basketball</quote> 538 had it at 28% Trump 73% Hillary in terms of chance of winning. You recognize that a 28% chance is still a pretty decent chance do you not?</quote> I was making fun of the poster who used a baseball analogy....not sure how you didnt catch that</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:12:31 PM #23:	Antifar posted... voldothegr8 posted... LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats? The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7 But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896504421] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote><cite>voldothegr8 posted...</cite> <quote>LOL why are liberals trying to compare poll results with baseball stats?</quote> The projections made by 538 and outlets like NYT and Huffpo are not poll results; they're based on formulas that take aggregated poll results into account. A poll =/= a polling average =/= a projection Probability is probability. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, which is equivalent to a .286 hitter's chance of getting a hit in any given at bat. It's about 2 in 7</quote> But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Great Muta 22 02/21/18 2:14:18 PM #24:	No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXezjbuzh14 <cite>The Great Muta 22 posted [p:896504529] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 2:15:35 PM #25:	The Great Muta 22 posted... No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber Lol if you ask the Republicans on CE they say Democrats have 0 chance. @r4X0r comes to mind --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896504608] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Great Muta 22 posted...</cite> <quote>No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber</quote> Lol if you ask the Republicans on CE they say Democrats have 0 chance. @r4X0r comes to mind</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Antifar 02/21/18 2:15:40 PM #26:	KingCrabCake posted... But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy Yes, in basketball you would want a player who shoots better than .286 from the floor. But that player would still be hitting more than one out of every four shots. Better than I could do. Kobe shot .250 in Game 7 against the Celtics in 2010. In football, you would want a QB with better than 28.6% completion. But the probability is the exact same. --- kin to all that throbs <cite>Antifar posted [p:896504617] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote>But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy </quote> Yes, in basketball you would want a player who shoots better than .286 from the floor. But that player would still be hitting more than one out of every four shots. Better than I could do. Kobe shot .250 in Game 7 against the Celtics in 2010. In football, you would want a QB with better than 28.6% completion. But the probability is the exact same.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:25:38 PM #27:	Antifar posted... KingCrabCake posted... But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy Yes, in basketball you would want a player who shoots better than .286 from the floor. But that player would still be hitting more than one out of every four shots. Better than I could do. Kobe shot .250 in Game 7 against the Celtics in 2010. In football, you would want a QB with better than 28.6% completion. But the probability is the exact same. Exactly its all about context. --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896505231] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Antifar posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote>But thats horrible in basketball. Such a bad analogy </quote> Yes, in basketball you would want a player who shoots better than .286 from the floor. But that player would still be hitting more than one out of every four shots. Better than I could do. Kobe shot .250 in Game 7 against the Celtics in 2010. In football, you would want a QB with better than 28.6% completion. But the probability is the exact same.</quote> Exactly its all about context.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Anteaterking 02/21/18 2:27:19 PM #28:	KingCrabCake posted... Exactly its all about context. No one is saying that in the abstract 28% is good or bad. We're just talking about how likely it is. --- http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg <cite>Anteaterking posted [p:896505334] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote>Exactly its all about context.</quote> No one is saying that in the abstract 28% is good or bad. We're just talking about how likely it is.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Anarchy_Juiblex 02/21/18 2:30:07 PM #30:	Cool but we need people to actually fucking vote in the midterms instead of spending more energy coming up with excuses. --- "Tolerance of intolerance is cowardice." ~ Ayaan Hirsi Ali <cite>Anarchy_Juiblex posted [p:896505469] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Cool but we need people to actually fucking vote in the midterms instead of spending more energy coming up with excuses.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Great Muta 22 02/21/18 2:30:45 PM #31:	Genocet_10-325 posted... The Great Muta 22 posted... No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber Lol if you ask the Republicans on CE they say Democrats have 0 chance. @r4X0r comes to mind As you said the other day, let them feel that way. Things like the mass exodus of Republicans retiring early, actual election votes resulting in Democrats flipping places for the first time in forever and over preforming across the board, and Congressmen like Scott Walker freaking out on Twitter pleading his followers to go vote mean a hell of a lot more than "muh fake polls" --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXezjbuzh14 <cite>The Great Muta 22 posted [p:896505499] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>The Great Muta 22 posted...</cite> <quote>No need to look at polling anymore, actual election results are showing that Democrats are likely to take the House come Novemeber</quote> Lol if you ask the Republicans on CE they say Democrats have 0 chance. @r4X0r comes to mind</quote> As you said the other day, let them feel that way. Things like the mass exodus of Republicans retiring early, actual election votes resulting in Democrats flipping places for the first time in forever and over preforming across the board, and Congressmen like Scott Walker freaking out on Twitter pleading his followers to go vote mean a hell of a lot more than "muh fake polls"</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 02/21/18 2:30:59 PM #32:	A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:896505513] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Anteaterking 02/21/18 2:35:57 PM #34:	The Admiral posted... A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational. The 1/6 chance of rolling a 6 on a die is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of rolling a 6 on any particular roll is highly situational. Someone's current batting average is still modeling the latent true batting percentage that they have projected over a range of different batting situations. How do you see something like a prediction of who is winning an election any more innate and not an estimate of a candidate's "true chances" than someone's batting average? --- http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg <cite>Anteaterking posted [p:896505809] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational.</quote> The 1/6 chance of rolling a 6 on a die is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of rolling a 6 on any particular roll is highly situational. Someone's current batting average is still modeling the latent true batting percentage that they have projected over a range of different batting situations. How do you see something like a prediction of who is winning an election any more innate and not an estimate of a candidate's "true chances" than someone's batting average?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Admiral 02/21/18 2:37:35 PM #35:	A 1-in-6 chance absolutely is predictive. What's not predictive is saying you rolled six 1's in a row. That's your historical performance, same as batting average. --- - The Admiral <cite>The Admiral posted [p:896505907] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>A 1-in-6 chance absolutely is predictive. What's not predictive is saying you rolled six 1's in a row. That's your historical performance, same as batting average.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Antifar 02/21/18 2:37:46 PM #36:	The Admiral posted... A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational. Right; it's a bit different. It'd be equivalent to picking a past at-bat at random, and not a future one. --- kin to all that throbs <cite>Antifar posted [p:896505916] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>The Admiral posted...</cite> <quote>A batting average in baseball is not predictive, so the comparison is horrendous. Actual chance of a hit in any particular at-bat is highly situational.</quote> Right; it's a bit different. It'd be equivalent to picking a past at-bat at random, and not a future one.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
EnragedSlith 02/21/18 2:39:23 PM #37:	I could potentially see Trump and a blue congress accomplishing a lot of they can get past the Russia scandal. POTENTIALLY Mind you, he used to be a democrat --- ultimate milf hunter https://i.imgur.com/lCEdce6.gifv https://i.imgur.com/2N1Ezia.gifv https://i.imgur.com/ukJ6sPJ.jpg https://youtu.be/IDYaHvDiTr4 <cite>EnragedSlith posted [p:896505999] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>I could potentially see Trump and a blue congress accomplishing a lot of they can get past the Russia scandal. POTENTIALLY Mind you, he used to be a democrat</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tyranthraxus 02/21/18 2:39:27 PM #38:	Anteaterking posted... Someone's current batting average is still modeling the latent true batting percentage that they have projected over a range of different batting situations. How do you see something like a prediction of who is winning an election any more innate and not an estimate of a candidate's "true chances" than someone's batting average? A batting average is just historical data. Actual chance to hit depends on the skill and current fatigue level of the pitcher. The left/right handedness of the players is also a huge factor.. it's nothing at all like rolling a die or bowling average. --- https://puu.sh/tcLsT/24f4611235.png https://i.imgur.com/dQgC4kv.jpg <cite>Tyranthraxus posted [p:896506001] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Anteaterking posted...</cite> <quote>Someone's current batting average is still modeling the latent true batting percentage that they have projected over a range of different batting situations. How do you see something like a prediction of who is winning an election any more innate and not an estimate of a candidate's "true chances" than someone's batting average?</quote> A batting average is just historical data. Actual chance to hit depends on the skill and current fatigue level of the pitcher. The left/right handedness of the players is also a huge factor.. it's nothing at all like rolling a die or bowling average.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Questionmarktarius 02/21/18 2:39:51 PM #39:	Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. <cite>Questionmarktarius posted [p:896506028] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:49:47 PM #41:	CrimsonRage posted... itt conservatives who failed Statistics in school Itt liberals who make shit analogies --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896506607] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>CrimsonRage posted...</cite> <quote>itt conservatives who failed Statistics in school</quote> Itt liberals who make shit analogies</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:50:20 PM #42:	Sparksfanboy posted... Bye bye Trumpie Yes in 7 years --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896506642] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Sparksfanboy posted...</cite> <quote>Bye bye Trumpie</quote> Yes in 7 years</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Genocet_10-325 02/21/18 2:50:35 PM #43:	Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. --- Formerly known as The_Great_Geno Conservatism is a plague on society. <cite>Genocet_10-325 posted [p:896506655] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 2:55:59 PM #44:	Genocet_10-325 posted... Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. Trump is winning in 2020 --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896506980] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> Trump is winning in 2020</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 02/21/18 2:57:03 PM #45:	don't get overconfident. never forget 2016. --- Playing: Dark Souls III (PC), Hollow Knight (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:896507030] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote>don't get overconfident. never forget 2016.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SomeonesAlt 02/21/18 2:57:24 PM #46:	KingCrabCake posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. Trump is winning in 2020 The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide. --- But Whose? <cite>SomeonesAlt posted [p:896507053] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> Trump is winning in 2020</quote> The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Giant_Aspirin 02/21/18 3:00:45 PM #47:	SomeonesAlt posted... KingCrabCake posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. Trump is winning in 2020 The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide. you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange. --- Playing: Dark Souls III (PC), Hollow Knight (PC) *(~);} - Get out the pans, don't just stand there dreamin' - {;(~)* <cite>Giant_Aspirin posted [p:896507251] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>SomeonesAlt posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> Trump is winning in 2020</quote> The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide.</quote> you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SomeonesAlt 02/21/18 3:03:29 PM #48:	Giant_Aspirin posted... SomeonesAlt posted... KingCrabCake posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. Trump is winning in 2020 The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide. you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange. Eh, Jerseyproud is actually one of the more reasonable Trump supporters. He's not a cultist and calls out Trump when he doesn't like what he's saying rather than breaking his back bending over like the other ones on here do. --- But Whose? <cite>SomeonesAlt posted [p:896507395] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote><cite>SomeonesAlt posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> Trump is winning in 2020</quote> The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide.</quote> you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange.</quote> Eh, Jerseyproud is actually one of the more reasonable Trump supporters. He's not a cultist and calls out Trump when he doesn't like what he's saying rather than breaking his back bending over like the other ones on here do.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
KingCrabCake 02/21/18 3:03:44 PM #49:	Giant_Aspirin posted... SomeonesAlt posted... KingCrabCake posted... Genocet_10-325 posted... Questionmarktarius posted... Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington. Only until 2020. Trump is winning in 2020 The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide. you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange. Its actually my lack of confidence in the democrats. So shut the fuck up buddy --- [Your sig sucks] Waaaaah <cite>KingCrabCake posted [p:896507406] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Giant_Aspirin posted...</cite> <quote><cite>SomeonesAlt posted...</cite> <quote><cite>KingCrabCake posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Genocet_10-325 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Questionmarktarius posted...</cite> <quote>Good. Let's get back to deadlock in Washington.</quote> Only until 2020.</quote> Trump is winning in 2020</quote> The Democrats could put up almost anyone but Hillary and beat him. He's historically unpopular and has a massive disapproval rating countrywide.</quote> you're arguing with a brick wall. nothing you can say will change KCC's mind about his confidence in Agent Orange.</quote> Its actually my lack of confidence in the democrats. So shut the fuck up buddy</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
COVxy 02/21/18 3:05:27 PM #50:	Tyranthraxus posted... A batting average is just historical data. Actual chance to hit depends on the skill and current fatigue level of the pitcher. The left/right handedness of the players is also a huge factor.. it's nothing at all like rolling a die or bowling average. I mean, we can start listing the physical parameters that lend themselves to a particular outcome of a die roll. --- =E[(x-E[x])(y-E[y])] <cite>COVxy posted [p:896507511] in New poll s... [t:76342913]...</cite> <quote><cite>Tyranthraxus posted...</cite> <quote>A batting average is just historical data. Actual chance to hit depends on the skill and current fatigue level of the pitcher. The left/right handedness of the players is also a huge factor.. it's nothing at all like rolling a die or bowling average. </quote> I mean, we can start listing the physical parameters that lend themselves to a particular outcome of a die roll.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > New poll shows Democrats leading the race for congress by 15 points! (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > New poll shows Democrats leading the race for congress by 15 points!