Board 8 > Rigged Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1275

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haloiscoolisbak
05/21/17 1:58:57 AM
#101:


Team Rocket Elite posted...
2000 just being Majora's Mask was due to the picture. It's not something you could have known before the contest started. It's similar to how 2006 was missing it's second ace in KH2. Like if 2001 randomly lost FF10 against 1995 and 1997 runs the same Round 4 picture, I would be in the running for a prize. I would also be the first person in line to say I was super lucky because how could anyone predict 2001 would go up to bat without FF10? I certainly didn't.


you would not be first in line to say that if everyone was already saying it for you. you'd feel the need to defend your picks to some extent as they are now deemed by most to be the wrong pick that got lucky.
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LeonhartFour
05/21/17 2:01:37 AM
#102:


There's nothing wrong with admitting you got lucky. Luck is a large part of contest success.
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haloiscoolisbak
05/21/17 2:03:43 AM
#103:


ill admit luck for 2011 > 2006


i think 94 > 91 was a clutch pick and im not gonna pretend i got lucky
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LeonhartFour
05/21/17 2:04:51 AM
#104:


Nah, 1994 was probably the smart pick, really. I went with 1991 thinking it would be the upset and was kinda surprised when it ended up the favorite.
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_SecretSquirrel
05/21/17 2:06:21 AM
#105:


Yeah, I always felt 94 was the favorite, but thought that 91 could end up as proxy for the Mario vs. Sonic rivalry.
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Linkzcap
05/21/17 2:29:10 AM
#106:


dood I'm not yet convinced 91/94 was a confirmed win for 94. There is an inkling in my mind squirmin around believing 91 was the winner and it's never left
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creativename
05/21/17 2:50:15 AM
#107:


haloiscoolisbak posted...
people can cry pic unfairness all they want but 94 > 91, 96 > 00 and 01 > 97 all had something in common, 2 super strong gamefaqs games over just 1 and i stuck to that idea when making my bracket


Super Metroid + FFVI > SMW
SM64 + SMRPG > Majora's Mask
FFX + SSBM > FFVII


like i'm not saying the people who got these matches wrong made bad picks, but I wish everyone would stop pretending the 'wrong year' won these tight matches and those who successfully picked these matches right got super lucky or something.

I don't think most think 1991/1994 was the pic, do they?

I'm quite confident 1996 and 2001 won because of the pics though.

I had both 1996 and 2001 in my bracket. I will readily admit there was nothing more to getting those right than dumb luck. No "pretending" here.

I was rooting for 1996 and feel dirty about its win, but I was rooting for 1997 and am extremely salty it lost :(
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creativename
05/21/17 2:52:54 AM
#108:


haloiscoolisbak posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
2000 just being Majora's Mask was due to the picture. It's not something you could have known before the contest started. It's similar to how 2006 was missing it's second ace in KH2. Like if 2001 randomly lost FF10 against 1995 and 1997 runs the same Round 4 picture, I would be in the running for a prize. I would also be the first person in line to say I was super lucky because how could anyone predict 2001 would go up to bat without FF10? I certainly didn't.


you would not be first in line to say that if everyone was already saying it for you. you'd feel the need to defend your picks to some extent as they are now deemed by most to be the wrong pick that got lucky.

TRE is very honest and I see no reason to doubt his words.

One should be able to openly admit when they got lucky. People who picked 1996 and 2001 got lucky, that's all there is to it.
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CaptainOfCrush
05/21/17 7:21:01 AM
#109:


Did some looking, and 1998 has a chance to be the first contest champion to never fall under 60%.

The most dominant champ thus far was Seph in the Villains contest, whose smallest % win was 58% in the final.
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Not_Wylvane
05/21/17 8:58:31 AM
#110:


Back on the leaderboard for the third time. Looks like I'll actually stay on it, too!
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Not_Wylvane
05/21/17 9:00:00 AM
#111:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
Did some looking, and 1998 has a chance to be the first contest champion to never fall under 60%.

The most dominant champ thus far was Seph in the Villains contest, whose smallest % win was 58% in the final.

While we're waiting for this snoozefest to end, how different would a 2017 Villains Contest be? As far as Sephiroth has fallen he's still got to be the heavy favorite, right?
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LinkMarioSamus
05/21/17 9:26:13 AM
#112:


Definitely. It's not like Bowser and Ganon have exactly held up since then either.
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Lightning Strikes
05/21/17 10:04:30 AM
#113:


Mario/Bowser looked better than Cloud/Sephiroth in Rivalry Rumble (rSFF and finals hype helping), and they narrowly lost to Red/Blue. Sephiroth could lose in a finals match.

Anyway, I think 2001 will overperform in the finals.
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GoldSlime35
05/21/17 12:01:59 PM
#114:


Debated 91/94 for a while and only took 91 because I figured it would get an SNES pick. Oops. Would be top 25 had I taken 94, and won a prize had 2000 beaten 1996 as well. Also got 2006 wrong, but so did most people.

Definitely got lucky on 2001 though. Too bad pictures had such a big influence.
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Yuri_LowelI
05/21/17 12:15:43 PM
#115:


94 is probably on par or maybe slightly weaker than 95 but super metroid/ff6 combo looks solid.

Either way it will be interesting to see if 2001 can break 40%.

If it was a match in a previous round I'd say no chance. But it's a final and 98 being in two polls consecutively might count against it.

I might be bold and pick a 58-42 win for 98. 98 being a bit weaker due to poll fatigue.
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LinkMarioSamus
05/21/17 12:21:06 PM
#116:


Watch '01 fare worse against '98 than '94.
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SwiftyDC
05/21/17 1:43:41 PM
#117:


What if RBY or OOT are absent in the finals match pic, does 1998 still win?
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Lightning Strikes
05/21/17 1:47:36 PM
#118:


SwiftyDC posted...
What if RBY or OOT are absent in the finals match pic, does 1998 still win?


Yes because everybody knows those games came out in 98.
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charmander6000
05/21/17 1:50:20 PM
#119:


Which is why 1998 is going up against 1997 in the final.


Though to be serious, for 1998 to lose it would need to be missing both games and even then it might not matter since I hope enough people would remember yesterday's match.
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SwiftyDC
05/21/17 1:56:40 PM
#121:


Something tells me Allen is gonna pull an Allen.
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charmander6000
05/21/17 1:58:34 PM
#122:


Well SBAllen is planning to include 10-12 games. Maybe he'll put OoT and Red/Blue in the last rotation.
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charmander6000
05/21/17 2:07:25 PM
#123:


Like what if the picture was this

2001
Super Smash Bros. Melee / Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid 2 / Paper Mario
Golden Sun / Grand Theft Auto III
Sonic Adventure 2 / Devil May Cry
Halo / Silent Hill 2
ICO / Advance Wars

1998
Panzer Dragoon Saga / Gran Turismo
Fallout 2 / Resident Evil 2
Banjo-Kazooie / Starcraft
Xenogears / Half-Life
Final Fantasy Tactics / Metal Gear Solid
Pokemon Red/Blue / LoZ: Ocarina of Time
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KamikazePotato
05/21/17 2:10:15 PM
#124:


charmander6000 posted...
Like what if the picture was this

2001
Super Smash Bros. Melee / Final Fantasy X
Metal Gear Solid 2 / Paper Mario
Golden Sun / Grand Theft Auto III
Sonic Adventure 2 / Devil May Cry
Halo / Silent Hill 2
ICO / Advance Wars

1998
Panzer Dragoon Saga / Gran Turismo
Fallout 2 / Resident Evil 2
Banjo-Kazooie / Starcraft
Xenogears / Half-Life
Final Fantasy Tactics / Metal Gear Solid
Pokemon Red/Blue / LoZ: Ocarina of Time

I'd take 2001 there.
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Safer_777
05/21/17 2:30:09 PM
#125:


Me too.
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SwiftyDC
05/21/17 2:33:07 PM
#126:


I'm hoping some type of pic sabotage happens now, just to throw a curveball for the Oracle.
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FFDragon
05/21/17 2:37:20 PM
#127:


1998 could just have a picture of Red Comrades Save the Galaxy and still break 60% on any other year.

It's so far ahead of everything else.
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WhiteLens
05/21/17 2:38:54 PM
#128:


The only way 2001 could win is if NintendoFAQs vote Melee enough to sap votes from OoT and R/B, while SquareFAQs is on full-force voting for FFX, while ignoring FFT and Xenogears.
All with pic sabotaging.

Not likely gonna happen though.
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BlAcK TuRtLe
05/21/17 2:39:26 PM
#129:


CaptainOfCrush posted...
I now think there are four matches where, even within the constraints of SBAllen's chosen format, the loser may at least plausibly bring up the point of pictures costing them the match:

2006 vs 2011
1996 vs 2000
1991 vs 1994
2001 vs 1997

I'm sure somewhere, there exists a person whose only four misses are the ones above. You have my sword, sir.

(I'm 2-2 myself so I'll hereby stop complaining about that 2000 match)


I have 6 misses in my bracket, the 4 you listed, 1987 > 1995 (also arguably ruined by pic sabotage) and 2015 > 2005 (which is more an example of GameFAQs awful taste than anything else. With fair pictures, I would be in contention for a prize.
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CaptainOfCrush
05/21/17 2:46:16 PM
#130:


Are you suggesting that 1987 was hurt by its match picture? It got its four best games while its opponent clearly didn't...
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LeonhartFour
05/21/17 2:49:28 PM
#131:


BT won't admit he made a wrong pick if he doesn't have to.
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BlAcK TuRtLe
05/21/17 3:13:50 PM
#132:


Aside from the fact that the contest was ruined by terrible match pictures, I take solace in the fact that my only misses were the most obviously rigged matches, and 2015/2005 which is just a terrible terrible result.
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charmander6000
05/21/17 3:26:37 PM
#133:


^ Literally had 1987 > 1995
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Current Bracket Score: 53/60
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lightsout06
05/21/17 3:36:33 PM
#134:


A contest with a terrible entrant like Draven gets rallied and everyone complains that some other site ruined the contest.

Now we have a contest where the best two entrants are in the final round and people complain that there wasnt any rallies.

I enjoy both types of contests. Is fun to see joke upsets but it is also great to see the best entrants go against each other.
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Not_Wylvane
05/21/17 3:52:00 PM
#135:


lightsout06 posted...
Now we have a contest where the best two entrants are in the final round and people complain that there wasnt any rallies.

Shit that didn't happen.
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Not_Wylvane
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NowItsAngeTime
05/21/17 3:55:23 PM
#136:


lightsout06 posted...
A contest with a terrible entrant like Draven gets rallied and everyone complains that some other site ruined the contest.

Now we have a contest where the best two entrants are in the final round and people complain that there wasnt any rallies.

I enjoy both types of contests. Is fun to see joke upsets but it is also great to see the best entrants go against each other.


Same.

I guess the only thing is the two things that got rallied I just weren't super fans of (there are much better champions than Draven, L-block's not a character, couldn't get into Undertale)

If something crazy happened for some random game/character Ir eally loved I'd like those rallies more they just werent things I super loved
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creativename
05/21/17 4:15:34 PM
#137:


lightsout06 posted...
A contest with a terrible entrant like Draven gets rallied and everyone complains that some other site ruined the contest.

Now we have a contest where the best two entrants are in the final round and people complain that there wasnt any rallies.

I enjoy both types of contests. Is fun to see joke upsets but it is also great to see the best entrants go against each other.

I didn't see anyone complain there were no rallies.

Most stats regs (not all) hate rallies. Not having rallies is great.

What we're complaining about is unfair pics, in what is likely the most pic sensitive contest ever.

Edit: Also it's highly doubtful the best two entrants are in the final.
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LeonhartFour
05/21/17 4:17:27 PM
#138:


There are a few people who argue that contests without rallies are boring and predictable, even though it was clear Undertale was going to win as soon as it beat ME3 and the contest was worse off for CT losing early.
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Big Bob
05/21/17 4:31:51 PM
#139:


The thing about rallies is that they either happen or they don't. There's no analysis involved, you either called it or you didn't. Like the people who counted on The Witcher III devs to rally for their game, but they weren't aware of the contest. It was a solid bet, but it just didn't happen. Same with the people who thought the Minecraft fanbase would carry it, though it had FFVII in round 2, so I doubt it would have been enough. I got lucky last contest when I predicted Melee rallies would carry it far (and I still think it could have beaten OoT), but I didn't think an Undertale rally was even a thing.

There's predicting trends, and then there's throwing up your hands and going "fuck, I don't know".
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FlyingForever
05/21/17 4:41:13 PM
#140:


Big Bob posted...
The thing about rallies is that they either happen or they don't.


Wow thanks for that insight there bob
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NowItsAngeTime
05/21/17 4:43:34 PM
#141:


creativename posted...
I didn't see anyone complain there were no rallies.


Do you have Ulti on ignore?
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NowItsAngeTime
05/21/17 4:45:14 PM
#142:


Final pics are here

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r5/2001_l.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r5/2001_r.jpg

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r5/1998_l.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r5/1998_r.jpg

A bunch of re-used ones
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Januzaj_Dragon
05/21/17 4:47:54 PM
#143:


that oracle of ages.seasons pic.....man I'm tempted to vote for 2001.
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Januzaj_Dragon
05/21/17 4:49:24 PM
#144:


Why is Links Awakening DX in the 98 pic?

Thats just cheating. Surely. Re-releases shouldn't count. As if One Zelda game wasn't enough for 98.
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Not_Wylvane
05/21/17 4:49:29 PM
#145:


Link's Awakening makes a match pic.
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GranzonEx
05/21/17 4:51:21 PM
#146:


Golden Sun and GTA in the same year wonder how RacistFAQs will vote
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OrangeCrush980
05/21/17 5:01:11 PM
#147:


Whoa, Link's Awakening finally appears but for 1998.

Looks like the pic gods favored 1998 overall then.
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FlyingForever
05/21/17 5:10:41 PM
#148:


2001 gets my vote
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#149
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_SecretSquirrel
05/21/17 5:13:02 PM
#150:


Ha, he actually went for Mass Carriers.

Bummed about no Revenge, though.
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#151
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