Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1267

(+) Yeah! (+)

I took 1991 due to a rather significant console release.
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transience posted...

so do you think Super Metroid is the top game of 94?

I'm open to that argument, just curious

Yeah, probably. Majora beat Wind Waker pretty easily in GOTD. I guess you could argue SFF made it a wider margin or something, but I don't buy that.
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I love the idea, but FF6 is royalty on this site. I just can't believe Super Metroid jumped THAT much. if you were gonna take it over FF6, that would mean taking it over Mario World in my eyes.
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but you saying that makes me even more surprised that you went with 91!
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I haven't been around, so sorry if this has been answered, or was in the vote-ins, but are console releases gonna be mentioned in the pics/matches at all? My picks were kind of banking on that. Woops.

Keeping my fingers crossed for my 85 > 87 upset still. If there's an "intangible year factor" for any entrant it's gonna be '85. I'm probably overestimating how many voters imbue it with any kind of meaning though. Oh well.
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I don't buy FFVI being royalty either. FFVII walked all over it, and so did CT.

I mean, "prince" is still royalty, I guess, but I don't regard it as highly as you do.

I'd take Mario World over both without sweating it too much, really. I'd sooner regard that game as royalty than FFVI.
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eh, it's been in the super seven since 04 or so, 05 at the latest. that's royalty in my book. then again, mario 3 has fallen.. but it's also 27.
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Eh, I don't take those 2004 stats for much outside of the top 4, maybe 5. There's so much SFF all over that bracket.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Hmm...The poll updater stopped working about an hour ago, looks like.

@creativename

Thanks. The updater IP has probably been blocked. I've sent a feedback.

HeroicSpiderPig posted...

I haven't been around, so sorry if this has been answered, or was in the vote-ins, but are console releases gonna be mentioned in the pics/matches at all? My picks were kind of banking on that. Woops.

Keeping my fingers crossed for my 85 > 87 upset still. If there's an "intangible year factor" for any entrant it's gonna be '85. I'm probably overestimating how many voters imbue it with any kind of meaning though. Oh well.

We don't know. No one knows what will be in the match picture until it gets put up. The NES might be in the 1985 match picture and it might not.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

HeroicSpiderPig posted...

I haven't been around, so sorry if this has been answered, or was in the vote-ins, but are console releases gonna be mentioned in the pics/matches at all? My picks were kind of banking on that. Woops.

Keeping my fingers crossed for my 85 > 87 upset still. If there's an "intangible year factor" for any entrant it's gonna be '85. I'm probably overestimating how many voters imbue it with any kind of meaning though. Oh well.

We don't know. No one knows what will be in the match picture until it gets put up. The NES might be in the 1985 match picture and it might not.

The Game Boy wasn't in 89's pic and probably really should have, so I wouldn't have much hope for 85 getting the NES.
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it's not going to be there.

but you've got the mushroom and mario 1. as long as it gets first billing -- and it will -- it's got a shot. I can't make a judgment on that one until I see what we get.
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The way the pictures are presented favors 1985 by a lot because Mario 1 is such a widely respected game that it'll get a lot of votes for that reason alone, if people don't bother to stick around to see that 1987 actually has a lot more going for it.
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yeah, those first pictures being found was a real tease. it looked like 87 was an easy pick but man.
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Well, we are assuming 85 gets the Mushroom right?

What if 85 got dysentery instead?
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_SecretSquirrel posted...

Well, we are assuming 85 gets the Mushroom right?

What if 85 got dysentery instead?

"Here lies andy
peperony and chease"

1985 to the finals
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LeonhartFour posted...

The way the pictures are presented favors 1985 by a lot because Mario 1 is such a widely respected game that it'll get a lot of votes for that reason alone, if people don't bother to stick around to see that 1987 actually has a lot more going for it.

ALl people need to see is a Triforce or Link sprite and 1987 will run away with it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

ALl people need to see is a Triforce or Link sprite and 1987 will run away with it.

Mario 1 beat Zelda 1 twice in 2009
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Anybody seen DaGeneticFreak yet? His topic is usually one of my favorites during Contest time!
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any Dorami sightings yet?
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I wonder if the trends indicate that the early vote will be "aware" and vote based on knowledge of the years, causing the results to be a bigger blowout than later, when results will be more random and towards a more even split.

BTW, can someone ask Allen too add a games list if you hover over the match? Or even better, text with a list below the match? Not having a list is a significant problem IMO. Most people won't wait for the pics to change, and then won't recall the games shown if they do wait.

Is there a board for feature requests where one can suggest this? If there is and someone makes a suggestion topic, please link to it here so we can sign it.

creativename posted...

BTW, can someone ask Allen too add a games list if you hover over the match? Or even better, text with a list below the match? Not having a list is a significant problem IMO. Most people won't wait for the pics to change, and then won't recall the games shown if they do wait.

Is there a board for feature requests where one can suggest this? If there is and someone makes a suggestion topic, please link to it here so we can sign it.

Someone posted a topic on this board about adding a games list:

https://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/75302233
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Match III – Wildcard – 1981 vs. 2006

Notable Releases – Adjusted X-Stats (Year)

1981
Games
Donkey Kong – 10.47% (2009)
Ms. Pac-Man
Galaga – 5.24% (2009)
Ultima

Platforms
IBM PC
Sinclair ZX81
VIC-20

2006
Games
Okami – 27.92% (2015)
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion – 31.19% (2015)
Gears of War – 23.28% (2010)
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess – 36.22% (2015)

Platforms
Playstation 3
Wii

Analysis

1981 was always going to be the strongest year from the vote-ins. The year has multiple memorable games. I would ignore the x-stat values for Donkey Kong and Galaga as they were from a contest where games were grouped by eras and in the early eras SFF was rampant and impossible to calculate. Given the right match 1981 could have won against some of the weaker years.

Sadly it was not given the right match. I know we have no information on the strength of these years, but it is surprising to see 2006 in a wildcard match, I’d probably take it over half the field. While Twilight Princess may not be the strongest anchor the year has some pretty good depth and a wide range of fanbases it could tap into. While it may not matter this round 2006 has gotten the short end of the stick in terms of its picture. Kingdom Hearts II and Final Fantasy XII failed to make the rotation while Twilight Princess is stuck as the fourth game. I have a feeling this might be its picture against 2011 as well.

It’s a shame that Tetris was the only pre-1990 game to have made the 2015 games contest, it would have been interesting to see how the old school games would perform against newer competition. Can Twilight Princess grab some SFF against Donkey Kong and the other arcade games which tend to have an overlap with Nintendo fans? Perhaps. Though it is unlikely we’ll get another best year in gaming contest any time soon to know for sure.

charmander6000’s Bracket: 2006 > 1981

charmander6000’s Prediction: 2006 wins, 75.17% - 24.83%
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Match IV – Wildcard – 1978 vs. 2005

Notable Releases – Adjusted X-Stats (Year)

1978
Games
Atari Football
Space Invaders – 5.39% (2009)
Super Breakout
Canyon Bomber

Platforms
Bally Astrocade
Odyssey2

2005
Games
God of War – 33.29% (2010)
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney – 23.32% (2015)
Resident Evil 4 – 33.17% (2015)
Shadow of the Colossus – 30.17% (2015)

Platforms
Playstation Portable
Xbox 360

Analysis

This is the final match of our wildcard matches. 1978 is likely the weakest of the pre-1985 games and may have only made the bracket because SBAllen wanted two years from the 70s, third place 1984 could have finished ahead of it IMO. Space Invaders is the only game to have made a GameFAQs contest though its true strength is unknown due to SFF.

Despite not having any decent Nintendo or Square games 2005 isn’t that bad. Resident Evil 4 and Shadow of the Colossus both have decent strength. God of War is likely overrated in the 2010 stats due to Fallout 3 overperforming against Brawl in that contest. Using 2015 stats a better adjustment would place the game in the 26.5-29.5% range depending on which game you use, though to be fair the game may be weaker now given Kratos’ 2013 performance.

I feel this match will be the largest blowout of this wildcard round. 1978 has a decent argument of being the weakest year in the bracket while 2005 will likely have decent strength. The only positive 1978 can take in this match is that its opponent does not have anything that could old-school SFF it. 2005 has a debatable match in the second round, but we won’t get much information out of this match unless the year performs worse than 2009 against 1979.

charmander6000’s Bracket: 2005 > 1978

charmander6000’s Prediction: 2005 wins, 87.32% - 12.68%
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LeonhartFour posted...

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

ALl people need to see is a Triforce or Link sprite and 1987 will run away with it.

Mario 1 beat Zelda 1 twice in 2009

List of things that make that a useless match:

- that match was 8 years ago
- that match has way more votes than this one
- 1987 has a better supporting cast
- Breath of the Wild is hot and I think Zelda will have a very strong showing in general this year
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Supporting cast doesn't help that much due to the picture format. In fact, it likely increases the chances that LoZ won't get slot 1 while SMB almost certainly will.
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I honestly don't think the order of the pictures matters as much as you think it does.

Now certain games being down-right excluded from the match picture i could definitely see as a concern.
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20 seconds is a long time and that's how long it takes before the 4th game on the image will show up. I might be underestimating the patience of the voters but I think a large number of them will never even see the third game. At least early on in the contest. Maybe by the time 2006 vs 2011 occurs, voters will figure out their are four games and they should wait for TP to show up.
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I don't think a lot of people are going to sit around and wait for all the pictures, and that's a problem for some years.
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I can't view the match pictures. Was the URL changed?

What games are on the match pics, and in what order? (if someone would be so kind)
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Haste_2 posted...

I can't view the match pictures. Was the URL changed?

What games are on the match pics, and in what order? (if someone would be so kind)

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/1981.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/2006.jpg

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/1978.jpg
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/byg/r1/2005.jpg

Those pictures don't work for you? They work just fine for me.
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It's all President Trump's fault I can't view them!

I can view yesterday's pics, so it's not like it's a compability issue.

I am on my desktop where I can view the pics. No need to list them all for me now!
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2005 is looking for 90%
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2006 kinda sucking
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LOL 1978

time to panic for 2006 against 2011
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nevermind, we have recovery

it's a good thing no one will overreact to 2005/2003 based on 1978
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Phoenix Wright is cleaning house
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2006 is getting close to falling below 70% here.
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feeling better about 1985
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those early sprites are much better representations of years than the 3d era. what is that 2006 mark? Oblivion I think?

I can only imagine what we'll see for 1990/2000.
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transience posted...

what is that 2006 mark? Oblivion I think?

Pretty sure, yeah.
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At the freeze 2006 is expected to get 65.18% against 1989.
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These early vote totals are even worse than yesterday's poll. The freeze at yesterday's poll had 280/283 while we've got only 238/235 today.

Hearing some reports of today's match pictures not working for some people, which might explain the lower vote totals at the start of today's matches.
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Flowey for 2015
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transience posted...

I can only imagine what we'll see for 1990/2000.

Banking on Majora's Mask for 2000. 1990...come on, Kuribo's Shoe.
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leaf is probably better than the shoe. well, maybe not. nothing beats the shoe
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transience posted...

leaf is probably better than the shoe. well, maybe not. nothing beats the shoe

Mario in the shoe would be the gamechanger.
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For the longest time I had no idea that Kuribo was just the Japanese name for Goomba and it wasn't translated when referring to Kuribo's shoe for some reason. Same with Jugem's Cloud and Jugem being the Japanese name for Lakitu.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

For the longest time I had no idea that Kuribo was just the Japanese name for Goomba and it wasn't translated when referring to Kuribo's shoe for some reason. Same with Jugem's Cloud and Jugem being the Japanese name for Lakitu.

Holy fuck, mind = blown
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BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

For the longest time I had no idea that Kuribo was just the Japanese name for Goomba and it wasn't translated when referring to Kuribo's shoe for some reason. Same with Jugem's Cloud and Jugem being the Japanese name for Lakitu.

Holy fuck, mind = blown

I'm also cleaning up the pieces here. Whoa.
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