LogFAQs > #980807475

foolm0r0n posted...

Because it's impossible, as town, to be on the right track when tunneling a townie based on some diction choices. Even the best town players only have like a 25% success rate with that, and sbell isn't one of them.

Your question should be why we should trust in a heavily weighted dice roll on D1? Oh, and why it's worth it to force claim 2-3 town along the way? Why aren't you worried about these things, which put town in a terrible position D2 nearly every single time?

You fucking don't lol. Unless there's something that obviously reveals someone as scum, it's not worth the 75% chance to mislynch D1. Town gets exponentially more powerful the more days there are, and chance to mislynch exponentially drops. Scum only gets linearly more powerful, so they are the ones with the time pressure. Even if there's an SK, the biggest time pressure is against scum.

I get why Corrik shuts up during D1 if this needs to explained every time.

There is mathematically way less of a chance of hitting town day 1 than this. With 13 and 25-33% scum, you can eliminate yourself from being scum if town. Which already makes the odds higher. Usually you can pressure a response to at least reasonably find one or two people likely to be town. And thus, you are basically at 50/50 almost. It's less worse to lynch and get information, even if wrong, generally. But, hey.