LogFAQs > #967850116

On February 24th, Russia invaded Ukraine in a "special operation".

Donetsk and Luhansk oblast's supposedly were to be freed by Russia, which was their cassus belli.

The most logical reason for Russia's invasion was to take the Black Sea Coastline from Ukraine, if not all of it, to connect Russia to Crimea, end the Crimea water shortage caused by Ukraine damming the river down to Crimea, connect Russia all the way to Transistria, it's breakaway republic in Moldova they occupy, and to also deny Ukraine, and secure for Russia, all the oil found off the coastline of Ukraine in the Black Sea, to not let their grip on European energy dependence falter.

Russia began quick strikes towards the hearts of cities that they pounded, but could not bring into submission. This caused massive amounts of attrition to Russia as the supply lines couldn't withstand these sustained forward advances through hostile territory, which eventually led to Russia faltering and giving up on this plan of attack.

Russia has failed to gain air superiority. They have failed with their cyber warfare. This has robbed them of the ability to project and defend immensely in this war. Relatively cheap drones have done immense damage, and Russia has lacked this control of the airspace which was supposed to ensure their victory.

Russia eventually in a change of tactics did drive out Ukrainians, at great cost to Ukraine, out of the Donetsk area and secure it. As well as consolidated the Kherson Region, which arguably was handed over mostly to Russia by betrayal in the Ukrainian Ranks.

The last hold out in the south was Mariupol, where Ukraine held out as long as they could but were eventually cornered into a steel mill before eradicated.

From there, Russia has faltered in every line of attack since. Manpower and artillery being depleted, while Ukraine has reinforced with NATO trained men and almost endless equipment from the West.

Ukraine began their counter attack in earnest within this past week. So far, Russia seems to be on their heels in the Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Region, and surprisingly somewhat even in Donetsk. The fog of war is great, and the propaganda on both sides is great. However, there is confirmations of Ukraine retaking villages in this counter offensive, with the ability to cut crucial supply lines of Russia with a little further movement. There is also rumors of large groups of Russians fleeing and of others being encircled.

This is mostly fueled by the ability of HIMARs that are long range artillery supplied by the United States, which has allowed Ukraine to decimate across a long range Russian assets and which seem to make the Russian AA S-300 and S-400s seems inadequate to defend against. Russia has had to flee Snake Island, remove their Black Sea Fleet from port being effectively neutralized, kept central command and ammo depots constantly under fire, Crimea now an actual target for Russia to have to defend, and also has keep pressure on destroying pontoons and bridges into the Kherson region, effectively strangling off supplies and cutting off Russian soldiers from the ability to reinforce properly.

This could be the point where Russia breaks completely and is forced to withdraw back. Or, Russia could stabilize at some point. With Russia trying to turn to Iran for drones and North Korea for ammunition and artillery, Russia may not have much left in the tank, in a drastic turnaround from an operation expected to take a month to topple Kyiv to potentially an unmitigated disaster and perhaps existential crisis for Putin and Russia itself.