LogFAQs > #956362720

Reigning_King posted...

...and what was it a month ago compared to the beginning of the year or this time last year? Tripeling a small number isn't really that impressive.

The 7-day average on June 22, 2021 was 11,365. On June 22, 2020, it was 28,329. Yesterday (July 21, 2021), it was 41,310, and given that there were 60,000 new cases yesterday, you can expect that today's 7-day average will be even higher once that data has been collected. On July 21, 2021, that average was 66,406, so proportionately, this is actually a larger spike than was seen then (2.34x then vs 3.63x now), especially considering that that wave peaked around mid-late July (that day's case count was 65,277, and being that close to the 7-day average means the case rate had plateaued) and this one is still climbing. This is consistent with extra-virulent variants running amok and so many unvaccinated people giving up on precautions altogether.

If you went from an average of 1 daily case to an average of 3 daily cases, you might have a point (though even then, using the 7-day average instead of individual days corrects for random variations such that any observed trend is much more likely to be an actual trend, even with such small numbers), but these numbers are much, much too large to explain away that trend by blaming random variation. This is a clear, measurable surge in cases, and it's not slowing down.

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