I'm really tempted to go with Hopkins for the big upset of the night, but I'm not sure. This definitely feels like a circumstance where the media is driving a narrative ("We have to give Boseman a sympathy Oscar") that is not felt to the same extent in the industry itself.
This isn't a great comparison, but I'm reminded of Stallone being the favorite to win for "Creed," with a narrative being built up in the media that it would be a great personal accomplishment for Stallone. This completely ignored the fact that within the industry itself, Stallone is very disliked, and on a personal level many people in the Academy were in no rush to reward him, like the media thought they were.
Now, Boseman is actually very well liked in the industry itself, so in this case personal factors might be enough to help him win, but I am not sure if he is as *beloved* as he is in the press. So the question is, how well liked was he, and is it enough for people to overlook one of Hopkins's greatest performances, and the desire to give Hopkins a legacy Oscar of his own?