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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 333: Biden out The Storm [2020 Edition]
xp1337
11/01/20 4:05:39 PM
#292:


Charitably, I think you can claim there's a chicken and egg type argument over which action needs to take place first if your goal is actual power for third parties: Actually voting for them under the current system or trying to reform the system from within first.

I have varied on what I thought was the better answer over the course of my life but if you ask me now I think it's the latter. As has been diagnosed here the ultimate barrier that enshrines the two party system is the Electoral College and FPTP. It is possible to address the latter to some extent locally - Maine has implemented Ranked Choice Voting despite the fit Republicans threw about it (and LePage being ultra petty and handwriting in that a victory under RCV was illegitimate to the winner) However the former is far more entrenched and outright eliminating it is unlikely in the short-to-medium term (by this I mean a Constitutional Amendment. It was almost there under Nixon but obviously these days Republicans will cling to their ability to maintain minority rule with all they have.) You can weaken it with things like the Interstate Popular Vote Compact... provided the courts don't try to strike it down but that's not a lasting fix - lose state governments within the compact at any time to Republicans and they could repeal it and make it fall out of effect again.

Where I fall on this is that as long as those systems are in place, they provide an overwhelming pressure and incentive to maintain themselves. If, for example, the Libertarian Party got 5-6% this cycle and you could conclusively point to it as the reason Republicans lost (big ifs both, especially the former) I rather think that rather than some great questioning of the two-party system, the Republicans would just either ignore it/blame Trump not themselves or at best pay lip service to Libertarians without really changing course. I feel like that's borne itself out pretty well over time from both major parties. The Democrats are more of a "big tent"/coalition style party so you might see them budge an inch or two but you're just as likely to see it backfire and have them run the other way to chase Republican votes.

All that to say I don't really think a third party getting 5 or 6 or hell even 18% really changes much. We've seen it not do that before and there's no compelling reason to think "well this time it'll be different! The change is coming!" So that leaves you with trying to reform the system itself first from within the two-party system and on that point there's not really a debate. Democrats have supported it (RCV in Maine, IPVC, etc.) and Republicans strenuously oppose it. I think there's a fair chance they become a lot more resistant if you get to a point where you're really reforming the system because I'd expect both parties to resist weakening themselves from their preferred status as is in the status quo but I think there's a foothold you can at least start from inside the Democrats to build momentum and get some victories before you get to the point where the fight becomes even tougher.

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