i've mentioned as such in a couple of the politics topics! either what you described OR giving biden only michigan and pennsylvania could result in a tie.
However, a few scenarios would happen before we see a true tie that goes to the house delegates.
One - the special districts in maine and nebraska have to vote just so for it to work, which polling suggests they are not poised to.
Two - there have to be zero faithless electors. If it is really looking that close, it's hard to imagine someone not pulling some strings, or even for some individuals to decide they have a responsibility to vote faithlessly. This works in combination with:
Three- if it's that close, trump will delay the process as much as possible and declare it fraudulent. he's stated as such. This will give more time to pressure, harrass, and cajole electors, murky the waters, or attempt to rule by inertia. Possibly attempting to invoke a house delegate vote even if the votes don't perfectly match
There were quite a few faithless electors in 2016- granted, more protest votes than flips- so there is some precedent.
Granted, all of this is moot. As time goes on it seems more and more likely that all four states (michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, AND arizona) will vote biden, giving him a decisive victory. Even if it's not an exact tie, the most common scenario is that it will be a complete shitshow of delays, obfuscation, and elector manipulation
i think the only way we get out of this swiftly is if florida votes decisively for biden. this is because mail-in ballots are counted on election day. polls give him a 2 point lead there, but that's very much within the margin of error
If there is faithless electors, that is bound to end up at the SC.
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Xbox Live User Name - Corrik Currently playing: Spider-Man (PS4), Quantum Break (X1)