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TopicStar Wars and Pokemon Mafia Topic 13 - The Last Topic
DoomTheGyarados
06/11/22 10:19:08 PM
#87:


So the answer to why someone who knew Ulti had a night action but didn't kill him could be several things. One, Ulti had expressed suspicion of me as early as day 2 so it could have been reasonable to think ulti was't protection but some sort of scanner. In hindsight we know that's wrong but also day 3 it was revealed Mewtwo was his pokemon. Does scum immediately think "Ah mewtwo, protection role then!" or do they look at the fact that ulti expressed suspicion of me and think "well he could be a lot of different roles." There is, to me, a very clear and understandable path why a scum team with that information could decide to leave Ulti be. That doesn't mean it has to be true, it isn't the only reality that exists, but it is a vibrant and easily understood one.

Next let's move onto 'Simpler than Ctes being scanned Godfather'

Sure. Although if I said 'simpler' I may have been pushing the definition of that word. Let's talk about what Godfather is countering in this game. A single Cop. Now let's look at what Two Flavor Cops for town was countering on the scum side. Not only Ditto who could mess with their scans very badly but also a scum who would roleblock them any time they tried to check in on them. Having two innocent scanning mafia members for one town cop isn't the same level of care as the situation with the flavor cops and scum's way to counteract that. That feels very different, which shouldn't be the case in within the same game.

Isquen not using the poison or redirect is actually very obvious. In the position they were in at that juncture it makes all of the sense of the world to hold onto poison until later on and try to screw town with it late. By the numbers they had pretty good odds of having at least two ways of confounding the flavor cop every single night. It was a bit of bad luck for scum that Isquen was so inexperienced that he fell under suspicion so heavily (Which by the way before arti I was pushing Isquen quite a bit early day 4 and HB scanned him night 4, we'll add that to my list of 'why the fuck would scum chris do this to his godfather/backup) and ended up dead. So the answer here is 'scum felt like they were in a bad spot and wanted to hoard power.' Which is easily believable to me but again doesn't have to be true. Maybe they just valued redirect more for some reason, you're telling the truth, and I should be voting ctes. It's a baffling decision in my view though if that's true, but also hey I spent a lot of this game punking the scum team so maybe they were whacky. For sure a possibility.

... Also why did they kill death night 4 when they still had an unscanned godfather. That's actually a point in your favor, HB. Killing Death night 4 makes much more sense if scare was godfather and they felt like death had done them enough of a solid and they wanted to remove him. Scum has much higher equity this game if isquen managed to be scanned innocent.

If you are scum you had a plan. By the time you posted day 5 Isquen was super dead and so you saw an opportunity to 'confirm' yourself by mentioning that you were redirected. I believe my response to you being redirected was, ah yes, "Kirby I am omega levels of concerned." It would have been one thing if we didn't know Isquen was cooked at that point, but by the time you claimed redirected your potential scumbuddy was cooked. Things were looking even worse now for the team. Risks have to be taken and frankly if you are scum those risks have paid off very well for you. You can't sit here and say it is a foolish theory because if it is right you are a hair's breath from winning a game that started off miserably for scum so yes, I have the gall to give these plays their due consideration. Every time, Kirby. I always have the gall.

As for your claim, by the time you claimed it you would have known that town had two flavor scanners. Having a scum role like Ditto counter 3 different people (the two scanners plus potential watcher) is actually kind of absurdly powerful. A single role just doing whatever the fuck it-

...

Why do you think they redirected you night four with Mzero's role in play? Sorry if this has been answered at some point.

As for this being simpler, fair enough it isn't. I actually , to be honest, could not give a fuck less about simple or not I am just concerned about right. In my mind's eye it takes a lot to impeach an innocent scan but it is possible and should be considered and I go back and forth. As I said, I have lost at end game before because I trusted a scan so believe me it is weighing heavily on my mind.

I hope this is satisfactory.


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Sir Chris
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