LogFAQs > #880521949

Zeus posted...

idk, savvy gamers wrote off the Wii but it sold like hotcakes. Savvy gamers questioned the Switch, which seems to be doing okay so far.

Yeah, but that's a shaky analogy.

People questioned the Wii at first because there was a strong undercurrent of "Why would I want this? How does it improve gaming?" And a lot of actual gamers DIDN'T buy into it (whether because of the gimmicky motion controls or because it didn't have any of the games they wanted to play). The majority of the Wii's success was its lightning-in-a-bottle success with casual gamers or non-gamers, who bought it more as a novelty experience or even a toy than they did as a gaming console.

But those types of owners had a tendency to buy the console, play a few of the motion control games for the first few hours, or every once in a while when they were having a party/were drunk/etc, and just stuff it into a closet when they were done. Install base for the console never really translated into follow-through purchases on most games afterwards (which would have made the Wii a catastrophic failure for Nintendo if they followed the same business model Sony and Microsoft do, where they basically sell their consoles at a loss and hope to recoup their money through software sales. Nintendo's strategy of selling cheaper consoles for profit and then maximizing software profit by mainly relying on first party titles allows them to thrive even under conditions that would ruin other companies).

Those owners also tended to feel a little burned by the Wii (most of them thought they'd get more out of it than they did, then felt like they'd overpaid for what they did get). When the Wii-U came out, Nintendo couldn't really sell it on novelty (it's sole selling point was that it had a tablet, which tons of people already had). That, combined with incredibly piss-poor marketing, meant that there was no real push for anyone to buy the console, and it withered and died on the vine. As much as they'd gained the casual audience for the Wii, they lost it again almost immediately.

With the Switch, the main question was whether or not people would want a handheld console at all, and it seems like the answer is yes... but it's appealing to a very different demographic than the Wii did. Nearly everything we know about the Switch paints it VERY much as a "handhold console that you can also play on your TV" rather than "a TV console you can also take on the go" (which is how Nintendo seems to want to market it). In other words, Nintendo desperately wants to sell it as the successor to the Wii-U, but most gamers seem to be buying it more as a successor to the 3DS (which has ALWAYS been Nintendo's strongest market share anyway).

Most of the casual audience likely ARE sticking with their tablets or smart phones for "on the go" interactivity rather than dedicated gaming handheld. The Switch isn't pulling in people who are wowed by the novelty of it (which isn't even that novel, considering the Wii-U tried to do something similar, and the Nvidia Shield basically WAS the Switch 4 years ago), as much as it's pulling in the same people who buy every successive handheld from Nintendo because they're dedicated Nintendo handheld gamers (which is why the Switch could sell so well when all it really had at launch was a Zelda game and the whispered promise of a Mario game at some point eventually).

If you look at the Switch as the successor to the Wii-U (which is how Nintendo was marketing it, and how most "savvy gamers" were evaluating it before launch), then yes, it's success defies most expectations and makes the doubters look foolish - but if you look at it as a successor to the 3DS (which is what it basically is), its success makes perfect sense, and isn't all that surprising at all.


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