Lurker > TsunamiXXVIII

MAX on Crono/Samus
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Crono with 53.4%
Samus with 55.6%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Remember how I said Mega Man's win over Pikachu set a new record for smallest max lead by a character who never trailed, and how Pikachu's earlier win over Mega Man was the 24-hour record for smallest max lead by either side?

Yeah, this match could challenge both records. I don't foresee Zelda's lead ever exceeding Mega's max from his win so that record should be hers unless Mario actually takes the lead at some point. The max lead by either side in Pikachu's win was 237, which is still in Zelda's reach but her lead hasn't been in the 200s since midnight.

... Yeah I suck at predicting things.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Remember how I said Mega Man's win over Pikachu set a new record for smallest max lead by a character who never trailed, and how Pikachu's earlier win over Mega Man was the 24-hour record for smallest max lead by either side?

Yeah, this match could challenge both records. I don't foresee Zelda's lead ever exceeding Mega's max from his win so that record should be hers unless Mario actually takes the lead at some point. The max lead by either side in Pikachu's win was 237, which is still in Zelda's reach but her lead hasn't been in the 200s since midnight.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

So apparently Zelda is now an elite just like Link. A legitimate threat to win a contest in his absence, even. So why not run with the idea of gaming's power couple?

Yeah, and you thought Rivalry Rumble was stupid.

But while the winner of a couples' contest would be obvious, the journey would probably be pretty hilarious. Remember, each character is only able to be part of one entry. That's no problem for Link--Zelda should easily draw the lion's share of the nominations--but what about, say, Cloud? Would he be paired with Tifa or Aerith? (Answer: probably Tifa, because we saw a lot of smart nominations in Rivalry Rumble--e.g. saddling Crono with Lavos because Magus is really Frog's rival; pairing Snake with Liquid instead of Big Boss so that Big Boss could get in as a hero vs. The Boss. Aerith and Tifa can both get in if you pair the former with Zack!)

And Tifa vs. Aerith for Cloud's partner is just the tip of the iceberg. Waifu Emblem, anyone? I'd be very surprised if FE:A got shut out completely (less so for Fates, because there's a lot more chaos there), but I'm honestly not sure which pairing(s) will get the nod. My best guess is Chrom/Sumia and M!Robin/Lucina, but I wouldn't be surprised if they both got blocked by Chrom/F!Robin. Honestly, the entire contest would probably be a bit of a letdown from the chaos that the nomination phase would be. And shipping is Serious Business, so don't be surprised if the nomination period itself is full of rallies--which means that Link/Zelda's inevitable championship might not be so inevitable after all!

But wait, there's more! Through the magic of fourways, despite having never faced him in a pure 1v1, Sora has faced Squall five times in contests, and lost five times. But the closest he's ever come was in Rivalry Rumble when it was Sora/Riku vs. Squall/Seifer. Part of that could be that Riku had actually won a match before, while Seifer was making his contest debut. Given what we saw from Seifer in 2013, it seems clear that he would've been holding Squall back. And yes, he was expected to get second in his match and got third, but that was in a match where the non-FF character was expected to win. Isn't falling to third when you're expected to get second in spite of the expected winner being FF as well even worse? (Not that I ever understood why that was the expectation). And thanks to the 2006 Female Bracket, Sora's partner in this would again be a character who has won a 1v1 match in a contest before. I really think that Sora/Kairi could beat Squall/Rinoa. And anyone who looked at the history and saw Squall's past domination of Sora would get their brackets busted. See, doesn't this sound like fun now? No, it doesn't? *shrug* It's silly. But it'll fit right in with all the other silliness of the SBAllen era, and we need something to tide us over until late 2020 when we get the next GotD. I'm thinking maybe Winter 2020? Because a Couples Contest has to take place in part during February, right?
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Week 15:

Weber State -7
Colgate +25.5
South Dakota State -7.5
Army -7
Eastern Washington -9
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yeah, we're just going to put the bowl season in with the Week 15 topic.

Also, I accidentally let the topic purge. I recorded everyone's picks, but anyone who didn't make a pick, I'm working from memory on where they were.

Rules
- Deadline for making a pick is the start of the earliest game that you're picking. This means that if you are on a level that involves picking multiple teams, ALL of your teams are locked as soon as one of your teams has kicked off. If you don't have a pick in by the start of the early games, you can just pick later games, but if you can't make an eligible pick out of the games that haven't started yet, you can't advance that week.
- The bowl season will be broken up into groups. Pick all games against the spread. You must get greater than 50% correct to advance a level, so if you get one push, you need more than half of the remaining games correct (groups will normally be an odd number of games.)

Level 7
jcgamer107

Level 6
KCF0107
Paratroopa1
TsunamiXXVIII
turbopuns2

Level 5
ShatteredElysium
5tarscream

Week 15 Games:
Maine (+7) @ Weber State (Friday Night)
Colgate (+25.5) @ North Dakota State
South Dakota State (-7.5) @ Kennesaw State
Army (-7) vs. Navy (Philadelphia, PA)
UC Davis (+9) @ Eastern Washington
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

CaptainOfCrush posted...

I feel like BotW would still need to deal with the anti-modern bias inherent on GameFAQs, but it's probably the one game that could overcome it.

Sounds about right. Of course, given the infrequency of contests these days, GotD 2010-2019 is probably going to be our next contest of any kind anyway, and I have to imagine it'll be the favorite to win that.

Other games likely to finish highly in the next GotD include Skyrim and Mass Effect 2. And...I honestly don't even know what the fourth member of our Final Four would be assuming the bracket is set up properly to get the four best games all alive then. Odyssey? Smash Ultimate?
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Samus was at her absolute breast.

SlugSh0t posted...

A cornered snake is more dangerous than a hedgehog!

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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

transience posted...

I should bring back my 2-11 poll (and leave out sephiroth/sonic)

Cloud
Crono
Samus
Mario
Zelda
Pikachu
Mega Man
Snake

Oh, I plan on making a Top 25 poll when this is over. Like in college sports.

SlugSh0t posted...

Crono projected to beat MM based on today's cloud performance..he might even go up a good deal more in the night.

Is that considered surprising? I thought we figured as soon as Mega lost to Pikachu that he was the new weakest Noble Niner. I guess there's still a chance it's Sonic, but I don't feel like Crono > Mega Man would be an upset based on what they've done so far.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I wonder how strong Cloud would be if Final Fantasy used the same cast for every game like Zelda

Technically Zelda doesn't. It's more of a legacy title.

There have been like 10 different Links or something. Probably more.

In order of their games' releases, since I can never remember the timeline:

Z1/Z2
ALttP/LA/OoS/OoA (and there's some debate that that's actually two Links)
OoT/MM
FS
WW/PH
MC
FSA
TP
ST
SS
ALBW
BotW

That's 12, not counting the non-canon CDi games, and I've probably forgotten at least one. Also there's a second one in ALBW.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Big Bob posted...

Dammit Board 8, Link's supposed to be the bad guy now.

Never.

Link is like Superman. He's basically invincible under normal circumstances and can only be beaten by exploiting a specific weakness, but despite how easily he defeats any challenger in the absence of said weakness, it's hard to root against him.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I'm surprised Snake was the pre-contest favorite against Samus despite Metal Gear being dead and Metroid having just been resurrected.

I'm not. Bracketmakers remember the last known values; they tend to assume some boost from a new game/decline in the absence of a new game, but the latter is something that we expect to happen gradually. Of course, we forgot to account for the fact that contests are far more infrequent. (Obligatory reminder that CBVIII started closer to CBI than to CBX.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Safer_777 posted...

@FinalFantasyVII Don't forget about Pikachu though. No NN'er ever was from the Pokemon franchise. However if you think about the Smash franchise then it is fair game.

Not just Pikachu. Mewtwo and Squirtle both beat Noble Niners in 2013, and Missingno beat Crono in 2010 (though it also falls under "one-time fad powers", unlike the other members of its franchise.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX on Link/Zelda
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Name of match, followed by years in which each one won. 1v1 only. If lifetime matchup is not tied, the one with the advantage in the series is listed first; otherwise, the one who won first is listed first.

Mario vs. Crono
Mario: 2002, 2003, 2005
Crono: 2004

Link vs. Cloud
Link: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010
Cloud: 2003

Mega Man vs. Solid Snake
Mega Man: 2003, 2004
Solid Snake: 2006

Sephiroth vs. Mario
Sephiroth: 2003, 2005
Mario: 2018

Final Fantasy VII vs. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
FFVII: 2004
OoT: 2009

Final Fantasy VII vs. Super Smash Bros. Melee
FFVII: 2004
Melee: 2015

Sephiroth vs. Tifa
Sephiroth: 2010
Tifa: 2018

Charizard vs. Bowser
Charizard: 2010
Bowser: 2018

Pikachu vs. Mega Man
Pikachu: 2018
Mega Man: 2018

There are plenty of other results that have flipped between years but one or both of the contests involved were 3- or 4-ways. Both in Characters and in Games. But I think that's all the 1v1s for now.

The most surprising thing about this list in my opinion? That Cloud has never gotten a chance to avenge his loss to Mario in 2002. They'll probably meet up this year, either in Battle 148 if Zelda upsets Mario or in Battle 149 if Mario holds true and beats Zelda (and Cloud doesn't blow it by losing to Zelda in Battle 148)--except this might be the first time since 2002 where I feel that Mario would actually be favored.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Heh. Looks like we did, in fact, just have one for the record books.

With a maximum lead of 478, Mega Man's win over Pikachu is the closest wire-to-wire match in which the loser never led past the freeze. (In fact, the wiki section on wire-to-wire leaders only requires that the eventual winner take the lead for good in the first hour, not that they do so before the freeze, but Mega Man had the lead at the freeze and never relinquished it.) This narrowly breaks the record set by Ike in 2013 in his Round 1 win over Proto Man (which was a 12-hour match)

The maximum lead of 478 is #19 overall, #12 among 1v1 matches, #9 among 24-hour matches, and #8 among 24-hour, 1v1 matches. 5 of the 8 24-hour matches ahead of it were also from this contest, including Pikachu > Mega Man which is in fact the current 24-hour record (1v1 or otherwise).

The final margin of 373 is at least briefly good for a spot in the top 25 for closest 1v1 matches by final margin, tying StarCraft's win over Halo for 25th place.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LusterSoldier posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

If this is a proxy for Samus/Link, we might have one heck of a Grand Final coming up.

In all seriousness, this poll will probably tell us a ton about Link, Mario, and Samus's strengths and where they come from. If we can figure out how to read it right.

This poll seems worthless in judging character strength because we currently have results such as Mario getting more than doubled by Samus happening in the poll and Ness beating Pikachu.

Well, we're now a good way in, and Ness is no longer beating Pikachu... but he's still beating Mario! Then again, Mario is at his best when he can just be a proxy for Nintendo. He's never fared well in these big multitway polls
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

LeonhartFour posted...

this is why Samus just needed to win

all the more reason to vote for her in the runback

Assuming there'll even be a runback!

UltimaterializerX posted...

In 2005 I do feel that match was obvious. Yesterday proved that moving forward it's no longer obvious.

It kills me to say this but Mario is not what he used to be. Zelda is going to kill him.

...Oh. Huh. Didn't even consider that one. My idea that there wouldn't be a runback was that Zelda would take Samus out before Mario could (though now that I stop to think about it, if Mario gets past Zelda he's in the Legends Finals against Link, which means that Samus would also have to get past Cloud to get another shot at Mario--which given how strong Nintendo seems to be is entirely possible, but I'm still afraid to predict it), but Zelda > Mario would make it happen quickly.

...I don't think I can predict that, either.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

_SecretSquirrel posted...

The last time Sonic was associated with a princess, it didn't exactly go so well.

---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Bowser
Sonic
Snake
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Chrono Trigger DS got outsold by the like 14th re-release of FFIV.

"Why doesn't this company remake very niche games?"

CT dS was a friggin port.

No it didn't. CT DS did very well. Especially in Europe where it made it's Debut

Also CTDS was a friggin Port

I'm talking a FFIV esque Remake or FF3(original)

CTDS wasn't a port, either.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Samus lost because no matter how much things change, Mario SFFing Samus remains the same.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

transcience posted...

Im pretty sure it was done for the purposes of trying to make the contest predictable, as in, you can have Zelda lose in the first round but still get some points if she wins a couple and then goes down to losers later on.

Ah, good point. You get screwed over double if someone you had losing in the first round loses in the second. (Not the third, since proper mixing would have them winding up right back where they are this way.)
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Vivi
Phoenix
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?

I thought KH was FF only?

BEcause SE don't give a shit about Chrono Trigger except making ports.

All that fucking money they wasted on 15 Development and they can't even do a Remake? Fuck that awful company.

It's not FF only; Neku was in one of them.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Ngamer64 posted...

I also voted Seals, seems promising.

Will this be a new team, or is it getting stolen from somewhere (hopefully the South)?

New team. The expansion bid passed unanimously.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

I still think he's doing well overall considering he's the only character in the entire LEgends Bracket that hasn't had new appearances in a game for 20+ Years. Pikachu has bhad millions and even now a movie star, MM has had smash appearance and a few 2D releaes. WE all know about Bowser. The FF characters appear in KH or other games to keep them relevant. Crono? Nothing .

The only thing he has thats of modern appeal is that DBZ AKira Toriyama art style that people can recognise.

You know, that is a very good point. Chrono Trigger remains one of the most popular Squaresoft games ever, at least among their hardcore fanbase. Why hasn't Crono ever been in a Kingdom Hearts game?
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Snake with 52.75%
Samus with 58%
Mario with 55.69%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Pikachu with 50.25%
Crono with 54.11%
Link with 60%
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX on Bowser

I know the right play is a parlay...but I just can't do it.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Those are not the Touhou themes you're looking for.






Much better. Also, seconds for other franchises I'd previously posted.



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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yuri_LowelI posted...

CaptainOfCrush posted...

Advokaiser posted...

You know what would be even more epic than Mario vs. Sonic?

Samus vs. Zelda.

It would certainly be the more interesting match. Mario/Sonic would have been a HUGE match before 2002-2005 when it looked like Sonic actually had the chops to make it epic. Once Mario rolled through the 2005 bracket, it was over (and the disparity between them has probably just grown over time). I disagree with it even as a historical clash of 90s icons because it will immediately fall flat once Mario stabilizes at the 63ish percent we all figure he'll get.

Zelda/Samus is actually very interesting. Hell, Zelda/Mario too.

Is it Zelda who is only mustering 56% on Sonic. Mario can get 60+ on SOnic most likely and probably Samus too.

I' sorry Zelda has been one of the sars of the tournament but lets not put her in some sort of Top 5 Elite status when she clearly isn't. She wouldn't have a chance against Mario or Samus.

Lets put her up against Snake again or Cloud. Or even Crono.

Troll.EXE seems to be glitching out.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Hbthebattle posted...

Link is the one Champion Pikachu couldnt beat.

ScareChan posted...

Crono lost to cloud because it doesn't matter how many timelines he searched, a SOLDIER doesnt die

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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Sonic
Samus
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

CATS
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX on Samus
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Link
Phoenix
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Hey if writing lengthy write-ups was all it took to get a permanent spot on the crew I'd have been invited a long time ago. I had a much longer idea for this one, too, but then Link showed up with a Z3 sprite instead of a Z1 sprite and I had to can my entire analysis.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Yoshi
Pikachu
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

INTERWEBUSER posted...

OrangeCrush980 posted...

INTERWEBUSER posted...

I think that's mathematically impossible. Are you sure?

I don't know much about it but I'd guess it might be possible if Bracket A had Character C losing next round while Bracket B had Character C losing much later, Character C winning a match that Bracket A and Bracket B both had Character C winning could be worse for Bracket A if the two brackets are otherwise close enough.

In this case the elimination would have happened prior to this match. Because eliminations can only occur taking into account different picks between Brackets A and B, with the deficit (Score A - Score B) too large to overcome from the remaining picks that are different between the two brackets.

No, no, I get it.

If he had Samus winning that match, but no further matches, while Snake he had losing his first match later and then winning multiple losers' bracket matches, it'd be better for his bracket to get that wrong than to get it right.
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Hbthebattle posted...

The Hentai Market is super competitive nowadays.
"Girl PENETRATED FROM ABOVE by Pretty Boy" just doesn't cut it in today's market

Calintares posted...

Auron lost to Solid Snake
Auron... had a hard afterlife. Now it's time for him to rest.

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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

By percentage, Tifa's win over Sephiroth was the fourth-worst in a 1v1 contest, trailing only Undertale's last three wins. (So yeah, more people had Undertale winning its division than had Tifa winning hers, losing to Samus, and then beating the Mario-Sephiroth loser.) It's tied for tenth overall with L-Block > Sonic, trailing (of course) the aforementioned three Undertale matches and final two L-Block matches, the last three Draven matches (so starting with Draven > Link), and Squirtle > Cloud.

Bowser's LB1 win is also in both top 25s. It's #20 overall and #10 1v1.

It probably won't be the last time we see an incredibly low number this contest. Corrections or not, Zelda was considered the underdog against Snake (both in Second Chance and among those who had her winning her division initially), while Sonic was an underdog against the Division 6 winner (both before and after it was known for certain who that was), so it seems highly likely that the bracket favorite in Sonic-Zelda is Snake. If, as most of us are now presuming, Zelda wins that, the number will be extremely low, but even if Sonic wins it could be pretty low!
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

snake_5036 posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

What if someone waifus a character because they're a good portrayal of a multidimensional woman?

It wouldn't be the first time I've heard of people having waifus for things like this instead of basing it all on having thicc thighs/titties/ass/other physical characteristics

Yeah, it's not like the beneficiaries of this "waifu boost" or whatever you want to call it are just damsels in distress.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Link
Phoenix
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Wow, Texas and Oklahoma actually playing defense. I probably need overtime to salvage this.
---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Limited myself to one per franchise. Some others that I would've put are already here.






---

"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

Vivi
Cloud
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.

MAX on Snake/Sephiroth
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"Someday I'll catch up, and then you'll all be surprised!"
BKSheikah has the power. He is the one.