| Board List | |
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| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 6:06:27 PM #102 | The mainstream investing media has turned into a joke, ascribing every significant move in stock prices to Reddit. Today Reddit is supposedly causing a surge in biotech. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 4:37:34 PM #87 | Also, I am not sure what has gotten into Elon Musk. This is almost like a Trump tweetstorm. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 4:33:56 PM #86 | Sunroof posted... So apparently Snapchat exceeded expectations on everything (earnings, revenue, user growth). But the stock is falling because they expect light Q1 numbers. What a crock. What I've noticed is that the market's expectations are usually higher than that of the analysts. Sometimes even higher than the most optimistic analyst. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 4:11:13 PM #78 | VGAC (an SPAC) went up 30% today after they announced they are merging with 23 & Me. This SPAC investment paid off a lot faster than I was expecting. I guess I should invest in more SPACs going forward. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 4:07:59 PM #75 | My impression of WSB is that despite calling themselves stupid, they are fairly smart in choosing trades in the sense that if they bought stock instead of short-term call options, those trades would probably be +EV. However, they choose levels of risk so high (almost always options) that the variance blows up their accounts most of the time even if the trade is +EV. As a whole, WSB likely outperformed an index fund (but not this topic) in 2020. However, probably at least 90% of users there lost money. Probably another 9% of users broke even or made a small amount of money and 1% or so of users made a lot of money when their lotto ticket options hit (more than the combined losses of the first 90%). These numbers are pulled out of thin air, but I do believe they are a fairly good description. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 2:53:02 PM #63 | The fact that Ryan Cohen is already on board and they have already started hiring senior tech talent from companies like Amazon means that the company should already be worth a lot more than before. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 12:11:18 PM #33 | Jakyl25 posted... So the bandwagoners were weak when it got to around $300? I would expect it's more early investors locking in large gains. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 12:05:35 PM #28 | Jakyl25 posted... So in the end why didnt the GME thing work? It cant just be because of the fucking with retail traders. Assuming the numbers from S3 are accurate, they bought north of 40 million shares on Thursday and Friday last week. The average price they paid would probably have been around $300 average, for losses probably in the 11 billion range. So they did get squeezed, just not infiniti squeezed. Enough people were willing to sell around $300 for them to escape. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 20 |
| red sox 777 02/04/21 11:55:08 AM #23 | Looks like GME collapsed - now I really regret my limit sell order yesterday not executing at $111. On the other hand, the magic of limit orders allowed me to sell 2 batches of SPCE at $59.80 and $61.80 today. The amount of time it was up there was so short that it doesn't even show up on the Google graph. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 11:24:07 PM #452 | Question for the topic: How many stocks do you own at a time? Right now I'm at 15, which is the highest it's been since I started. SPCE is the biggest holding at 37%. I will probably decrease SPCE to 20% or so before the test flight and maybe increase the number of stocks held to 20 or so. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 7:11:52 PM #414 | I think it's a good idea to put a small percentage of assets in crypto. Don't forget about it for decades though - check in once in a while to see how it's doing. No need to check every day but the situation can definitely change on a timescale much less than decades. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 6:52:58 PM #409 | Yeah, on the bright side, that commission might teach you the feeling of holding for months or years. After you've done it, you may be able to do it with stocks too, which in the end will probably make you money. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 363: SEC Speed |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 6:27:21 PM #142 | It's 2/3 to expel a member from the House, but I didn't think it was the same for committees. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Politics Containment Topic 363: SEC Speed |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 6:24:28 PM #140 | Probably just majority if it's to remove her from committees. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 5:43:01 PM #400 | Sunroof posted... I wouldnt be day trading, and I live in the US. I plan on throwing $25k into ETH. So with that being said, Binance? LOL I really don't think you can hold. Even Coinbase's huge commissions probably wouldn't stop you from closing out a trade quickly to lock in a gain. So yeah, given that you are going to trade frequently anyway, go for the one with lower commissions. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 5:40:56 PM #397 | I've been using Coinbase for 2 months and I like it except for the commissions and not having DOGE available. All I've used it for is to buy and hold BTC though, with minimal trading. So the commissions aren't a huge deal for me. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 4:42:59 PM #389 | Correction to post #364: that should read "If the number of shares shorted exceeds the number of shares not held by true believers". --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 4:25:46 PM #388 | Also, as has been discussed in this topic over the past few months, I agree that stop loss orders are generally bad. It's a great way to sell low. Don't invest what you're afraid to lose - if you feel so much fear that you need to set a stop loss, it's a sign you put in too much into that investment. Diversify as needed (including with cash if that is necessary for you to feel comfortable). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 3:54:24 PM #383 | I sold a little GME today at $99 and $105. Not really the price points I wanted but it felt overly risky so I cut the position a bit. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 3:31:55 PM #369 | ExThaNemesis posted... But they have infinite money to play with and all of the institutions in their pocket. Retail can't afford to sit and throw money at a manipulated stock price forever. The time is limited on the short side by the time it takes for the long shares to be concentrated in the "diamond hands" as they put it. As long as there are shares held by people like you or me who are willing to sell at a non-infiniti-squeeze price, the shorts can keep buying and selling. But it's possible that as this trading goes on, weak hands get shaken out and more and more of the float ends up being owned by the true believers. As this happens we would expect volume to go down. In the extreme mathematical theoretical case, if 100% of the shares are in the hands of people who will only sell for absurdly high prices, one single market order to buy 1 share will send the price to the lowest ask on the price ladder, which would be somewhere between Mars and Jupiter, instantly putting the shorts into a margin call and forcing them to submit market orders to buy back all their shares. It's a very interesting dynamic problem. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 3:19:43 PM #364 | StartTheMachine posted... What's so sad about what's going on right now is that WSB is just pouring all of their cash into trying to continue to pump these, probably very few people selling (since they're likely all bagholders at this point), and they're just making institutions and HFT algos all the money. Giving it right back to them. That depends on how much short interest there still is. You don't need 100% short interest for a stock to squeeze. It also depends on the willingness to sell of the holders. In some senses the situation is more dangerous for the shorts now, because anyone who has not sold at this stage is probably a true believer and is not going to sell except at a much higher price. If the number of shares shorted exceeds the number of shares held by true believers, the shorts are in trouble. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 1:49:00 PM #331 | StartTheMachine posted... Well the only way I learned the market was dipping my toes in. And buying calls and covered calls the same way. But I've only ever done that for stocks that I'm long in and ones that aren't really volatile at all. Sooo...I assumed buying puts was basically the same thing except you're obviously betting against the stock, and I didn't realize that when the Implied Volatility value goes down puts lower in value too. I'm still confused about what strategy to use where but I think I actually grasp it enough that I can put it together if I had slept recently. Yeah, sometimes these things can only be learned by experience, but when you are learning, you don't need to do it with too much money. Raise your stakes as you get better at it. The nice thing about straight stocks is anyone can make some money in it without much effort or skill at all, provided you are willing to hold long term and aren't significantly unlucky. That's because the long run direction of the stock market is higher. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 1:36:07 PM #328 | Options trading is hard because it's a zero sum game. Winners are taking money directly from losers. By contrast, investing in stocks is a positive-sum game because there is a real business there that is generating value. You wouldn't play poker for high stakes after just learning the rules and I think it's a good idea to treat options the same way. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 1:20:07 PM #322 | Keep in mind GME has had a huge catalyst in Ryan Cohen becoming a large shareholder (I think the largest single shareholder) and joining the board. He has been very active in demanding that the GME board transition the company into a mostly online business for months, and now they've put him on the board so it is likely they are going to do just that. While the transition hasn't happened much yet, the market is usually willing to pay quite a lot for potential. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 1:05:19 PM #312 | You need it to break the strike price to make money. I mean you can theoretically sell it to someone else before the stock has broken the strike price, but why would they buy it from you unless they expected it to break the strike price later? Here, the problem is the strike price is ludicrously low to the point of being nearly impossible. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 12:55:05 PM #306 | Yes I would suggest you get out of that put ASAP. I really wouldn't be surprised if that thing halves in value if GME hasn't cratered by tomorrow. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 12:48:55 PM #299 | StartTheMachine posted... Goddammit I don't understand. It's a good thing only 15 orders filled lol I'll sell it. The time decay chart is not a schedule baked into the put contract. The value of this put entirely depends on other people believing that GME may fall below $5. That can change, and will probably do so quickly if GME doesn't crater immediately. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 12:45:13 PM #296 | $5 strike? Okay, I won't feel sorry for you if that $6,200 goes to zero. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 12:42:30 PM #293 | Yeah, Coinbase has the commissions set high enough that day trading is going to lose a lot of money quickly. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 11:50:02 AM #279 | Watching day traders on YouTube fascinates me endlessly. Their hustle is so disciplined and so much harder than what I'm doing. Yet I doubt any of them have 10xed (okay 8xed now) their accounts recently. I respect the hustle but damn I don't get these guys It's like gamblers working very hard to figure out how to win at roulette. The work is there, but it's being applied to a game that's impossible to win (or at least impossible with the methods they have available). --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 11:45:15 AM #277 | The PDT rule is unfair and everyone should be allowed to choose their own trading techniques but it is true that most day traders lose money and most investors make money. Part of that is because the returns for day traders are distributed very unequally - the small percentage of day traders who make money tend to make a lot while many lose. If you had 10 day traders, I expect the first 8 would lose money, the 9th would make less than an average investor with his starting capital, and the 10th would make more than an average investor with his starting capital. But even on average (arithmetic mean, not median), a day trader will do substantially worse than an investor. Part of that is bad human psychology, part of that is lack of time in market (a day trader has his money in cash a rather large percentage of the time - all the time between trades), and part of that is being constantly front run by HFT algorithms. The last one is not fair, and is a big deal, even if it looks invisible. A few cents a share per trade is not a big deal to an investor who doesn't trade often but to a day trader it is calamitous. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 11:11:14 AM #264 | Also Extha I'm sorry it turned out like this. I still think buying GME at $250 was positive EV, but it was very risky. Don't let this experience color your perception of the stock market, because these past couple weeks are once in a decade or more event. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 11:04:42 AM #261 | StartTheMachine posted... And yeah I hopped out of AMC earlier this morning. Took my 5k up for the day and got out. 27k+ total I think I think the way to avoid this is constant position resizing. I.e. when AMC was at $4 it was a good idea to put 25% of your portfolio in it. At $18 by its own growth it is now more like 60% of the portfolio, which is too high. At $18 it's a worse investment than at $4 so it should not even be 25% of the portfolio. So there is nothing inconsistent with selling off the majority of the position even if you believe it's still going higher. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 10:48:04 AM #255 | Yesterday was brutal, but I'm back in the green for this week again, with a little cushion, with this strong showing by SPCE today. Hopefully, it'll stay there. I have started to sell off some SPCE to lower its weight as it has gotten to the point where the daily account swings are too wild for me. I don't think I want to go through the test flight with it having more than 25% allocation. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 10:15:19 AM #247 | I think a $20 strike for any time period is still a bad play. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 10:07:27 AM #244 | Colegreen_c12 posted... he buying it a few months out so hes got time. March 5 right? The thing is GME was at $20 before all this short squeezing started. So there isn't much chance of going below that, and the best chance is probably the crash triggering overly pessimistic capitulation. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 10:04:08 AM #242 | Oh it's a $20 strike? I didn't even notice that, I was just looking at the chart. Okay, well in that case IMO buying it is almost like throwing your money away. If GME doesn't collapse in the next 2 days that put is probably going to be destroyed by IV crush. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 10:01:26 AM #240 | I am pretty annoyed that my limit order to sell GME at $111 didn't execute. It opened at $113.40, so what gives? Probably that my broker wasn't fast enough to catch it, but there's another advantage for rich people using prime brokers with HFT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 9:20:15 AM #235 | StartTheMachine posted... So yes why would I want to sell puts instead of buy then. GME ain't gonna last for multiple months That's what I thought about NKLA. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," as the saying goes. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 9:07:43 AM #231 | That said, GME making moves in pre-market. $114 currently. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/03/21 9:06:14 AM #230 | That's the chart for buying puts right? It's a zero sum game so for selling you flip all the green to red and the red to green. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 9:41:58 PM #200 | StartTheMachine posted... I definitely fell victim to it too. I was content cashing out my huge 50k win on AMC and making fun of the HODL diamond crew and then I started buying shares back and suddenly kinda became one. It's pretty easy to get swept up in these manias. Most likely a hedge fund short AMC protecting themselves in case the infiniti squeeze happens. There was also a lot of action on the GME $800 strike 2/5 call. With those calls in place, that fund's loss is limited to the $800/share level which they can manage. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 9:39:18 PM #198 | Seanchan posted... So I know there's a bunch of you in this topic that this is a hobby, so you get personal enjoyment out of the time spent and there's the thrill of "hitting it big". I also get the sense that, at least here, people are only playing with money they could afford to lose. All the regulars in this topic has gotten better rates of return than that BUT this topic series was started in March 2020 at the bottom of a deep bear market and we have had an amazing bull market since then. I think it's very hard to make fair comparisons until we see how this topic does in something other than a record setting bull market. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 6:22:33 PM #181 | Short volume ratio for GME today was 23%. That's higher than it's been for while. It was in the 17-19% range all through last week and yesterday. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 4:19:57 PM #164 | Jeff Bezos stepping down as CEO of Amazon. Well that was unexpected! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 2:17:56 PM #135 | Nanis23 posted... A misclick once caused me a $200 loss just because it snowballed Hey, it could have been worse. You could have tried to buy GME at $4 and sold instead, and then one day you get a call saying your account has been wiped out and you owe your broker money. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 11:53:21 AM #89 | DoomTheGyarados posted... I literally have made massive money on a GME put <_< Seconded. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 11:44:14 AM #81 | https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/short-squeeze-stockbrokers-and-hedge-funds-face-proposed-antitrust-class-action-2021 An antitrust class action has been filed on behalf of retail investors against 35 defendants on the short side or apparently working with them. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 11:33:11 AM #75 | Back over $140 we go. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Stock Topic 19 |
| red sox 777 02/02/21 11:22:06 AM #69 | GME share position has been nearly tripled today from yesterday. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
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