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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/22/20 1:13:57 PM
#357
Jakyl25 posted...
Wait...you think arguing for free market capitalism is a trait of RINOs?

The Republican Party frequently changes its position. The same position that used to be a Republican position could now be a RINO position. At this point the Republican Party is fully on the socialism train (only in their case, it's a socialist private jet).

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/22/20 1:08:30 PM
#363
StartTheMachine posted...
AVCT shot up to 4.70 this morning and is back down to just over 4 now. She'll be back!

Does anyone else here borrow on margin? If you sell for a loss on Ameritrade, even if it's a tiny one, they make you wait for funds to settle. But if you sell a winning trade, again, even a tiny win, you can immediately use those funds on something else. Not waiting for the settlement period is why I like margin trading as long as you carefully calculate risk. I just wonder if every broker has these rules or if it's only a TDAmeritrade thing.

Basically I should just make multiple accounts.

Saw an ad for a margin interest rate below 1% from IBKR and am considering opening a margin account. The appealing thing about it is you can pyramid (when your stocks go up, you can borrow more and use the funds to buy more shares). In a rising market with this strategy you can make a lot more than 2x what you make without margin. For example:

Suppose you bought 10 shares of Tesla at 200, using $1000 of your own money and $1000 from the broker. The stock rises to $400, and you now have 10 shares of Tesla worth $4000 and owe $1000 to your broker. You can now borrow an additional $2000. Now you use that to buy 5 more shares of Tesla. Now you hold 15 shares of Tesla, worth $6000, and you owe your broker $3000.

Then Tesla doubles again to $800. Now you have 15 shares of Tesla worth $12,000 and owe your broker $3,000. This entitles you to borrow another $6000, which you again use to buy 7.5 more shares of Tesla. Now you have 22.5 shares of Tesla worth $18,000 and you owe your broker $9000.

Finally Tesla doubles to $1600. Now you have 22.5 shares of Tesla worth $36,000 and you owe your broker $9,000, leaving you with equity of $27,000, and you would have 27x your original capital. Notice how if you didn't use margin you would have 8x and if you used margin but didn't pyramid you would have 15x.

The scary thing about it is that if you use a max pyramid strategy, one -50% fall will wipe you out, even if you previously made absurd amounts of money, as long as you keep going with the pyramiding strategy.

So to continue the example, suppose you borrow an additional $18,000 and buy another 11.25 shares of Tesla at $1600. Now you have 33.75 shares worth $54,000 and owe your broker $27,000. Now suppose Tesla falls back to $800. You get a margin call and are completely wiped out! Whereas with no margin you would still have 4x your original capital, and with only one use of margin with no pyramiding you'd still have 7x your original capital.

So yeah, pyramiding is lucrative but super risky and if you keep repushing the leverage no amount of success will protect you from future risk.


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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/22/20 12:24:04 PM
#362
Yeah I don't think anyone in this topic lost money on GNUS or LK. Speaking of swing trades, HTZ jumped like 30% this morning before falling back the majority of the way on news that they've reached a deal with creditors to keep their cars and continue operating. Of course, that doesn't mean the bankruptcy isn't going forward, just that a liquidation probably won't.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/22/20 2:03:35 AM
#359
I've been checking in on LK every day. I kinda want to trade the pattern of buying below $2 and selling above $4 but don't have high confidence that the bouncing pattern it's been in since the trading halt will continue.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 6:14:31 PM
#339
Trump is prosecutor in chief of the country (the attorney general gives advice, Trump gives the commands). The Ghislaine Maxwell case is a federal case. If Trump wants a successful investigation, not politicizing it at this point would be a reasonable strategy.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 6:08:19 PM
#335
Corrik7 posted...
Uh, illegal immigrants shouldn't contribute to shit. They should be referred to the proper authority for deportation.

Well, it costs money to deport them. So if a state has a lot of them, shouldn't it get more money so it can hire more police and judges and court clerks to handle all the removal cases?

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 6:01:59 PM
#328
Watching Trump's press conference now. He's gotten to the point where I'm starting to have trouble constructing consistent, meaningful, sentences out of what he's saying. I think he just said it's a bad thing that people got more money than they were expecting. And that we're going to keep the same amount of aid but we're going to cut it to 70%.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 5:48:48 PM
#323
Corrik7 posted...
To be fair, the framers probably intended it the way that Trump interprets it. However, conservative law backs the letter of the law and not the intent and precedent over interpretation.

It is funny that progressives who always back intent over precedent and interpretation over letter of the law now will flip when it is convenient however.

It would be good if the law could be amended to make it clear illegal inhabitants are not here in actuality and not to be counted, but it is what it is as of now unfortunately.

Oh, if we're going by intent the framers most certainly did not intend to only count citizens. They expressly said:

which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons

So they said to apportion representation based on noncitizens. The 14th Amendment then got rid of the part about 3/5 representation.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 5:45:21 PM
#322
LordoftheMorons posted...
Fucking disgusting.

The 14th Amendment seems pretty unambiguous, though??

https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1285625104202956801?s=21

Unless the argument is that they can change apportionment within, but not between, states.

It says:

Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed

There's some ambiguity regarding whether it includes travelers. Also, the term "Indians not taxed" also introduces some ambiguity.

Congress and the Federal Government does not have the power to change apportionment within states. That power is reserved to the state legislatures.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/21/20 4:14:12 PM
#355
Fairly good earnings report for AMTD and IBKR. Beats analyst expectations by a wide margin on both earnings and revenue.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/21/20 2:39:50 PM
#350
Just watch airlines soar now.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/21/20 2:16:43 PM
#347
Congrats. Your faith was rewarded.

Long live the CLOUD and long live SPACE!

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 1:07:38 PM
#313
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Good to know you're in favor of the US and UK effectively becoming Russian puppet states.

The US and UK both have bigger economies than Russia and the US has more world influence. That they can be influenced somewhat does not make them puppet states.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/21/20 12:41:06 PM
#309
I mean of course Russia tried to influence the Brexit referendum. The US and UK have influenced other countries' internal politics for like centuries. They, and the EU, are still doing so today. It's really emblematic of nationalistic exceptionalism to act like the US/UK somehow have a right not to be influenced by other countries.

If Russia was stuffing votes, that would be a very different thing, but if it amounted to running ads on Facebook, it's not a big deal and doesn't make the outcome of the vote less legitimate.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/21/20 11:22:59 AM
#342
SPCE is such a champ. Another +10% day.

Today AMTD and IBKR are reporting earnings after the close. I bought some IBKR as well.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/21/20 9:35:27 AM
#339
Nice green day today.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 8:27:23 PM
#330
Moonroof posted...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-20/u-s-airlines-face-the-end-of-business-travel-as-they-knew-it

I know that many articles are often dramatic but this one is surprisingly logical. I am seriously considering selling AAL for a $10k loss. I'm sure it's possible if not likely that AAL will go up another 25% at some point, but who knows when. It's also possible (and maybe more likely) that it goes lower and either bankrupts or stays at $8 - $12 forever.

As much as itd suck to lose $10k, Id still be net positive from trading and also this would slightly offset my taxable income. Am I being crazy?

You could sell it and buy DAL or LUV. Realize some taxable losses now and aim to sell DAL or LUV after 12 months so the gain is a long-term gain and taxed lower.

I mean it's not 100% guaranteed that DAL is not going bankrupt but before the coronavirus hit, DAL had a surplus of like 14 billion of assets over debts. AAL was already at negative 2 billion or so. DAL has been building up cash reserves and is now at something like 15 billion in cash on hand. I feel pretty safe about it.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 6:06:08 PM
#326
Lopen posted...
If you invested in tech in 2000 and didn't invest in Apple or Microsoft you're a fool. Not gonna call Amazon a total gimme back then but one of those two surely was.

Apple was doing pretty badly then. This was before the ipod, and after Microsoft basically pushed Apple out of the personal computer market.

As for Microsoft, it had the highest market cap of any company in 2000, and there's a very simple reason for not investing in the company with the highest market cap - greed. You feel that it's already gone up so much and is so big, you can get better returns somewhere else. And, it took 16 years before Microsoft recovered its 2000 high. That's a long time to be waiting in the red.

I guess what I'm saying is that I could totally see this topic investing in none of these (and it wouldn't be particularly dumb).

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 5:36:54 PM
#323
That said, if you allocated even 3% of your portfolio to Amazon in 2000, and you didn't throw in the towel when Amazon was down 90% within 2 years, you'd be in the green now even if every single other company you bought went bankrupt.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 5:35:10 PM
#322
I mean if you invested in tech in 2000 you might still be in the red, depending on how much you had in Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. If you didn't have a lot in those and had a lot in Pets.com, Webvan, etc. you'd still be in the red.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 4:55:35 PM
#319
Yeah, the stock market is a hard game. There's a reason 10% a year is considered an excellent long run return. Most people don't even achieve that.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/20/20 3:54:17 PM
#297
Ashethan posted...
Mitch McConnell seen in Oval Office wearing a Tan Suit. Cue outrage from Fox News in... 999,999,999.... 9999,999,9998...

President Trump will be awarding Mitch the newly created Presidential Medal of Hypocrisy when he leaves office in 2025. This is going to be an exclusive medal reserved for only the biggest hypocrites in the country.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 1:11:37 PM
#311
While we're on regrets, I should have bought LK or SOLO this morning when I woke up and they were down big. Would have made 10% in 2 hours. Or ZM and would have made 4%.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 1:02:48 PM
#309
TSLA back on the rise. It's like the market decided the last week since Monday 1 PM should not have happened.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/20/20 12:27:43 PM
#298
Tech and stay-at-home making a hard rebound today.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/20/20 1:42:24 AM
#286
LordoftheMorons posted...
We actually do already do that through the child tax credit (and it's good policy!), just at a much less insane amount than $1 million per kid.

Honestly it probably does cost $1 million to raise a child. It's like 300k to raise a child through age 18, and another 300k for college. Tack on the time spent by the parents which they could be spending working a second job or starting a business, and you could get to $1 million.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/20/20 1:00:56 AM
#284
Think about all the tax money we'll collect from all those children when they grow up and start paying taxes.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/19/20 11:19:48 PM
#281
Peace___Frog posted...
Being principled is only for when a Democrat is president

Ron Paul voted against the Iraq War when George Bush was president. And buying into conspiracy theories (assuming this is true, I haven't heard from him since he retired) has nothing to do with being principled.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/19/20 5:54:42 PM
#266
Trump is even less of a libertarian than Obama. He openly advocates giving money to the poor. At first he tried to dress it up as a respectable non-socialist plan by calling it a refundable tax credit but they aren't even putting in any effort to maintain that pretense now. He's a full-on socialist in terms of his belief in using government to directly direct the economy.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/18/20 4:08:45 PM
#235
Jakyl25 posted...
Benevolent Dictator/Philosopher Kings and Queens

Yes this comes with its own set of issues

Are you ready for His Imperial Majesty Donald I?

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/18/20 7:56:08 AM
#281
Apparently AMTD and SCHW are merging, and shareholders of both companies will get shares in the combined company when the merge closes. That must be why AMTD dropped 4% yesterday on no news - because SCHW reported earnings, and they were a bit disappointing. I might switch over to IBKR since I'm not sure I want to invest in SCHW and I wasn't intending to when I bought AMTD.

That said, still bullish on the whole sector. SCHW's earnings report shows big gains in the important areas, with 550k new clients not counting acquisitions and retail trading activity and total assets under management way up. The reason revenues haven't followed yet is that they very recently went to zero commissions and they of course lost out on a lot of commissions. That should be priced in at this point though - I don't think there's going to be a price war between brokerages on order flow and things like that because retail traders don't really see that, unlike the commission which is very obvious and used to be ruinous for small scale active traders.

In the future, they'll get better at extracting profit from customers without the commission, and the number of customers and the amount of money they're investing should increase. The average retail trader probably made like 30% last quarter and that's a lot better than the 9% per year that they've been told is an excellent return and you should pay big fees to a fund manager for achieving. They're going to transfer in money from funds they had put in mutual funds, index funds, and managed retirement accounts and manage their own investments.

Casino management has always known that the best thing that can happen for the house with a new player is for that player to win. If he loses he may never come back. If he wins, he'll come back, and bring more money. Same applies here, only the player actually can win long-term in the stock market, so they'll come back with a lot more money. By lowering the commission to 0 and catching a wave of retail trading right as the market goes on a tremendous run I think the brokerages are going to create customers for years.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 8:51:18 PM
#279
I actually kind of like SOLO. It may be a good buy now, and if it goes below $3 I think it'll look very attractive. I'd buy it but I have no idea about their product.

Same sort of deal with Amazon - if it falls some more it may be a good buy. I kinda don't think Monday was an all-time high. While there are a lot people touting it as a "buy and hold forever" stock and saying that it will never go down, which is a sign of an incoming top, the overall sentiment isn't that euphoric compared to some other stocks (just look at Tesla). Plus, it was trading stably between $1,500 and $2,000 or thereabouts for a year and a half from the September 2018 top to February 2020. $3,000 isn't that much higher than $2,000, percentagewise, and $2,000 was seen by the market as a fairly stable valuation. I think if it goes into blowoff top mode it can maybe briefly touch $5,000 before it bursts.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/17/20 6:49:52 PM
#187
Jakyl25 posted...
Nice to see him admitting Obama was not a Marxist Communist

If he was, he'd have gotten rid of the regressive payroll tax. And he'd have raised taxes on people who make 250k a year.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/17/20 4:49:22 PM
#183
Anyway, Trump isn't going to be taking elections advice from his enemies, and certainly not from the Democrats (who have a real mastery of the art of losing elections they should win). We'll see over the next 3 and a half months what happens with the virus and the economy and the election.

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/17/20 4:47:10 PM
#182
TheRock1525 posted...
Rush Limbaugh, without any sense of irony, referred to Biden as possibly our first "Marxist Communist" president.

It's like Republicans want to lose at this point. Literally not a single person outside those who were already voting for Trump believes this.

It would be more believable accusing Biden of being an extraterrestrial.

Next step: Think the Senate should have confirmed Merrick Garland? It's Joe Biden's fault. He created the Biden Rule!

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/17/20 4:34:45 PM
#179
Jakyl25 posted...
Thats how it logically has to be on their part though

The number one threat/issue facing the nation by far is COVID-19. So, either Trump can handle it or he cant, and if he cant, then why would anyone re-elect him?

So he has to claim he handled it.

Oh Trump has been very clear that the virus is not the greatest threat facing our country. He says the greatest threat is the economy shutting down.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 2:19:40 PM
#274
Note that the risk premium concept only applies where the person on the other side of the trade is lowering their risk. Effectively they are paying you to lower their risk. If you choose to artificially increase your risk (by using leverage), you generally don't get an improvement to your edge.

So here's an example. Let's say we have a biotech company. There's a 50% chance it'll have a successful test in which case it'll be worth $30 and a 50% chance of failure in which case it'll be worth $10. What's the price before the test results come out? Most likely, it'll be a little below $20. That's because you'd rather have $20 in dollars with no risk than a 50% chance of $30 and a 50$ chance of $10. If you have a lot of money at stake and not much risk tolerance (say, you are retired) you'd might even prefer $19 with no risk to this stock. Maybe even $18. Maybe lower!

So let's say the stock is trading at $19. You buy. Now you have a 50% chance of making $11 and a 50% chance of losing $9. That averages out to a gain of $1, or just over 5%. That's your risk premium, that the market is paying you for holding this stock through the news release about the test.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 2:03:14 PM
#272
Yeah, not knowing is exactly what gives you a profit opportunity. If you wait until everything is known the price will have already gone up by the time you get in. When others are basing their decisions on fear and you are not you gain an advantage over them. Of course it's risky, and you could lose, but you could also win. On average, when you take on more risk you get a higher average return because people are risk-averse and will pay a price (called risk premium) to avoid risk.


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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 1:32:32 PM
#269
Also, it's not well known, but there is some advantage to being a small-scale investor, in that you have a lot of opportunities in smaller companies that are just too small to make a difference to the bottom line for a big fund. You are also potentially playing against some of the worst investors out there (people who are gambling on stocks simply because there's action in the price). Like everyone here made money on LK I think but you bet there were people who bought at $5 and sold at $1.50......twice.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 1:08:53 PM
#266
Lopen posted...
Like instead of investing say 25k and dumping when it gets to $20 for a profit of around 4k, invest 5k and hold long and profit 10k with much less risk.

But do what you wanna do. Do some research first and believe in it, then commit.

Yeah, this. It's better to invest an amount where you're comfortable enough not to get shaken out quickly if the price moves either up or down. When you sell stock because you feel fear, you are giving up edge to people on the other side of the trade who are thinking rationally. And when you go all-in you're naturally going to feel a lot of fear.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 1:00:11 PM
#263
I did a little reshuffling to add to the AMTD position. Thanks to that and SPCE rocketing upwards, DAL + CAR is below 50% of my portfolio for the first time since May other that week where I was only holding LK.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 12:31:50 PM
#259
SPCE over +15% for the day.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 12:15:27 PM
#256
Moonroof posted...
SOLO? Or SPCE?

He means TCDA I think. I'd say jump in on SPCE but your profits are already going to be 30% lower than they would have been 2 days ago.

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TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 11:02:41 AM
#251
Apparently AZN is headquartered in Cambridge, England, and MRNA is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. This feels like something out of a conspiracy theory...

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TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/17/20 10:57:32 AM
#168
https://finesandfeesjusticecenter.org/articles/hidden-costs-floridas-criminal-justice-fees/

So according to this website, Florida sells unpaid fines to debt collectors after 90 days. The debt collectors can add on up to 40% for collection fees. If you have to find a private debt collection firm that holds your debt and pay them interest, yeah it could be hard to figure out how much you owe.

Plus, it's not clear what happens if you settle the debt with the debt collector for less than what you owe. Debt collectors often buy debt for pennies on the dollar and are then willing to accept a substantial haircut in exchange for payment. But let's say you settle for 50% of your fine - are you now risking committing a crime by voting, even though the creditor entered into a binding contract with you in which they acknowledged full satisfaction of the debt?

In general, I oppose taking away the right to vote from felons, regardless of what crime they committed. If you are going to take it away, I support conditioning it on paying off the fines. But some clarity would be nice, so people aren't in doubt.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 10:49:55 AM
#248
You guys who aren't enjoying this market must be invested in tech stocks.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 10:00:19 AM
#241
Good job catching the dead cat bounce on TCDA Lopen. Reminds me I should keep some cash on hand to play dead cat bounce opportunities when they occur. Or just sell some shares and buy the dead cat bounce stock I guess, but selling shares in a company I'm bullish on, intending to buy back after a couple of days, is psychologically hard.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicStock Topic 8
red sox 777
07/17/20 9:36:17 AM
#237
SPCE up another 10%! Rocketing upwards, which is quite fitting considering their business of launching rocketships.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/16/20 11:08:32 PM
#153
Corrik7 posted...
Interest on fines? What? What state does that stupid shit?

PA you can look up your fines literally at any time and pay them online at any time. It's a statewide database.

Well......without knowing anything specific about Florida courts and fines......we are talking about Florida. The state that brought us the butterfly ballot.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
TopicPolitics Containment Topic 311: Ye says Nay
red sox 777
07/16/20 10:28:32 PM
#151
Corrik7 posted...
How would you not be able to find out if you owe fines and how much?

Sometimes it can be complicated with interest calculations and all. It shouldn't be but sometimes it ends up being so with missing paperwork, slow clerks, etc.

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September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013
Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest!
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