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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 10:01:33 PM
#277
I will get back to you when Lolo flips scum
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:59:31 PM
#275
Occulam's Razor says Gmabler's Fallacy doesn't apply either
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:55:05 PM
#270
Also you weren't even on the scumteam then you were Baron Corbin
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:53:09 PM
#269
You didn't bus red you whined that red threatened you with abuse, made no legitimate attempt to get him lynched, and tried to steal the credit
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:39:45 PM
#265
I blame the real cop for our inevitable loss. Wherever he is.
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Day 4
Lopen
06/28/19 9:25:25 PM
#57
Loki
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:22:24 PM
#257
benjamin3740 posted...
Day 3 when Pez was favoring lynching him over Mzero. And then Sbell's own reactions to the suspicions on him I think are honest


MZero flipped town and that reaction from SBell has been present throughout the game

Try harder
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:20:36 PM
#255
Lopen posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
I thought Sbell was town


Explain when and how you came to this conclusion when you've not shifted any of your other scum reads

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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:10:44 PM
#246
I like how you post all that stuff with glaring contradictions, particularly on SBell (made more,amusing when Ben claimed he thought SBell was TOWN in this very page)

Makes me want to do my own iso under suspicion you conveniently skipped some stuff
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 9:07:18 PM
#244
benjamin3740 posted...
I voted dowolf to pressure him to claim


benjamin3740 posted...
htaeD posted...
Whats everyone's take on dowolf btw?

Scum

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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:58:23 PM
#238
benjamin3740 posted...
I thought Sbell was town


Explain when and how you came to this conclusion when you've not shifted any of your other scum reads
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:57:06 PM
#236
You want the real tinfoil hat theory? Ben was going to name 3 scum scans, with the third being SBell, until he saw the reaction to the absurdity of 3 scum scans.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:54:31 PM
#234
SBell has appeared on every list of scum he's made. Interesting he chose to scan Tom over SBell night 3. Especially since SBell was on the confirmed town lynch
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:48:47 PM
#231
Ben posted...
Day 1 Townies:
Tom
Dowolf


Ben journal entry posted...
Okay now I really want to scan Dowolf


Also day 3 scan on Tom.

V consistent logic from this guy
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:43:38 PM
#229
NIGHT 2

*sees Sultan flip Mayor*

Okay now I really want to scan Dowolf. ..Nah, he'd be the equivalent of the FD scum mayor if he's scum. Can just let him be and if he's alive at end game then he'll be obvious. So that one I feel is too self-resolving down the road to be good scan.

HOWEVER...I think I want to figure out the roommates. I also want to make sure to actually scan someone on my "non-town reads" list. Gotta commit to that. And since Tom is calling Pez scum and Pez is calling Tom town, the obvious scan here is Pez. I dont see a world where it's reversed and Tom is scum but Pez is town. So either they're both scum, both town, or this is the right choice. Also I'm looking at the end of day 1 when Chris recieved Conch powers to try and get some reads from that and Pez didnt post AT ALL. Maybe he was busy I dont remember. But since I am getting nothing from him there, my urge to scan him increases!


Further, read Ben's fabricated journal entry on Pez. He actually doesn't mention the red lynch at all. To me that's a natural first thing to weigh, but it isn't even considered. I imagine because he forgot about it and just remembered day 3.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:33:07 PM
#226
Also Pez is a really hard sell as scum to me. Do you think he busses Red like he did? He was part of the reason that case got off the ground, and part of the reason it wasn't necessarily a lost cause before 5tar came in.

Just doesn't seem likely to me.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:20:14 PM
#224
Corrik7 posted...
benjamin3740 posted...
htaeD posted...
Ben
1: You posted a list of not town reads and included me on it. (also I am pretty sure you called me scummy before that)

2. I thought that specifically when I woke up and saw posts discussing why scum would keep red alive. But to be more loosely accurate, I do always wonder who the nightkill is going to be every time. Because sometimes I either fear of getting killed as townpower, or I want to get killed as town nilla.

List of not town reads doesn't equate to saying you're scum. It's just posting the names not on my town list since my town list is bigger than those not on it. You seem either paranoid, or reaching to be able to say you're worried about me!

htaeD posted...
Sure sounds like it to me!
You even said all the scum were likely in your list (of 7 players)

Then again I somehow confused your past towngames for scumgames too, largely due to what I remember is you trying to get me to crack. So maybe a little paranoid.

But it still feels different.


Btw who thinks that exchange Corrik posted looks like an exchange between someone who has a guilty scan on them and a cop. Does anyone? We've had no reactions to this.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:17:44 PM
#223
I'm not actually being contrarian looking at the votes.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:16:46 PM
#221
Day 1 we had a dowolf lynch before kingmaker

Day 2 we have reactions to the scum lynch before the scan

Day 3 Lolo isn't confirmed yet, and is likely scum, but we can call that one pending

You are being intentionally obtuse here, I think.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:13:39 PM
#217
We have 3 major wagons we can gauge. Ben joined and exited them at really unflattering times for him. I believe based on those Wagons Ben looks the worst in the game overall.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:11:27 PM
#213
Sure. If Pez and Death flip scum I was wrong because I don't buy a scum killing 2 scum to townclear himself.

Now what if they don't?
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 8:06:13 PM
#209
The big strikes against Ben are

1. In his votes. Town isn't often going to be wrong that many times in a row, statistically

2. It's not logical to hold two scum scans till today with 2 mafia down. Yesterday just makes more sense. Imagine if today we have a dead on scum scan, and yesterday we were right. It would basically be impossible to lose.

3. Ben's scan target for night 3 does not follow from his suspicions or the result of day 3 in a way that makes sense.

4. Ben has generally played a very passive game otherwise. He did not push for lynches on his scans in any meaningful way, and has basically just been "town clearing" with poor justification.

My other theories frankly have no bearing on Ben's scumminess. He exists as his own thing.
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TopicGauntlet Crew Ranks 90s Horror Films - Do you like ranking scary movies?
Lopen
06/28/19 7:59:40 PM
#165
Well there are movies on this list that are hard to take seriously on overall tone or premise, but if you can get past that the antagonist generally feels dangerous I'd say. Like "if this were real" I'd be afraid. But I just can't find a murder doll threatening is what I meant. Conceptually Child's Play as a series is just kinda broken to me. In a way it's not better than downranking Arachnophobia because of the spiders, it's just the reverse version of it.
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Topic^King of the Mountain^ - Save My Shapeshifter - Day 4
Lopen
06/28/19 7:54:22 PM
#23
Dante
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 7:53:47 PM
#204
Learning to read people and not claims is a significant step to getting better at mafia

Don't just take a claim as it stands on paper. Figure out why it would be claimed now as opposed to a different time, whether the claim is consistent with the player's behavior over the course of the game, what the player stands to gain as either alignment to claim, the overall probability that they actually are that claim with their results, and of course weigh the player's overall contributions to the game.

Scum outnumber any given power role at a rate of 5 or 6:1, just remember that when considering whether a player could be lying.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 7:07:08 PM
#197
If you wanna sift through a pile of triceratops dung be my guest

Not being a mindless person who just believes the scummiest cop claim I've ever seen doesn't make me scummy though.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 5:46:12 PM
#183
I think there are a few ways to take it. I'd be interested in what people who don't have a horse in the race make of it.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 5:37:58 PM
#181
I'm curious what Corrik is implying it means.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 5:09:37 PM
#179
Corrik what topic is that from?
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TopicFinal Fantasy 7 Remake Pre-Order $41.99 (30% off) on Amazon
Lopen
06/28/19 4:47:47 PM
#36
Yeah I'd rather have a new game myself. Just HDifying FFVII wouldn't really be too interesting.

Like Final Fantasy IV DS was the closest thing to a new game from the Final Fantasy series, as far as remakes go, and it converted one of my least liked FFs to one of the better ones.
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TopicIYO the most overrated Final Fantasy that's not names VII
Lopen
06/28/19 3:28:34 PM
#22
I dunno how you can hate VI's gameplay. Like, don't get me wrong, I don't really see how you could absolutely love it either. It's sorta just the standard "gets the job done" in an RPG.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 3:07:56 PM
#169
And the fact that this is the one thing you've been passionate about this entire game speaks to me being on the right track and you being on edge.
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TopicIYO the most overrated Final Fantasy that's not names VII
Lopen
06/28/19 3:04:57 PM
#17
VI is basic but the plot and gameplay are brisk. More than you can say for IX
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 2:56:16 PM
#166
There are also some people I think are hidden power roles based on their play to this point and the claimed roles, and I'm tempted to just out them to force it because I figure scum knows it if I do now that all the claims are on the table because I think it's actually smart to tell the truth here, but yeah
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 2:51:03 PM
#163
I think multiple scanning roles make sense with the setup and I believe Ben is clearly lying
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TopicGauntlet Crew Ranks 90s Horror Films - Do you like ranking scary movies?
Lopen
06/28/19 2:39:16 PM
#161
Child's Play is terrible. I just can't take the murder doll seriously. Almost certainly a bottom 5 for me.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 2:35:20 PM
#161
I think Death is town, but that's pretty much only because he joined in pressuring the hb lynch in day 1 in a way that seemed organic to me, and because he was fakescanned by Ben. Without the Ben fake scan with that claim I'm probably eyeing him suspiciously at this point. I thought he was a hidden power but now with all the claims on the table I don't think he's one of the lying villagers.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 2:32:07 PM
#160
If the actual cop wants to claim, please don't do it in the last hour of the day that's all I ask. The sooner the better.
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TopicIYO the most overrated Final Fantasy that's not names VII
Lopen
06/28/19 1:30:04 PM
#6
IX by miles even if VII was included
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 1:18:09 PM
#112
Corrik7 posted...
There isn't really a scenario where 7 scum can exist cuz they had an extra kill.


Who even brought that up
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:54:15 PM
#106
If the real cop has some town clears that could honestly be useful I think. Probably already would've countered if you had some scum.

I think we have a hiding protection role too so you probably won't die tonight.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:50:32 PM
#102
My theory is that there are 2-3 lying town power claiming villagers. I feel like they're pretty obvious at this point but whatever.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:49:47 PM
#99
The cool thing about my list is we get a lot more hints if it's right or not tomorrow

If Lolo doesn't die and flip bodyguard, Lolo is almost certainly scum, and the non-kill is almost certainly Cam being recruited, meaning kill him too.

Then it's basically down to SBell and Corrik, which you can just go for them. The game is close enough to solved at that point that you can just sorta shotgun the suspects.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:43:48 PM
#93
5tar, after seeing all claims and digesting all information

Town reads in order of confidence:
5tar
Tom
Hb
Pez
Death
puns
Ulti
Lea

Scum reads in order of confidence:
Ben
Lolo
Cam
SBell
Corrik

So I think if we go through the scum list we probably win. I think Ben screwed up and towncleared 3. Tom I think he cleared as town to get people looking at him once Ben inevitably is found out, as Tom has had suspicion from many, or to do a stupid "no I must have been insane!!" play.

I think lynching Ben is probably the +EV play the more and more I think about it. If he's lying scum, which seems more way likely at this point, you have no mislynches and don't distract the doc. If he's telling the truth, the flip tells us and we bag his two scum scans anyway.
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TopicMost Quotable Media: The Matrix / Hamlet ||| Pulp Fiction / Princess Bride
Lopen
06/28/19 12:23:57 PM
#22
Matrix
Pulp Fiction
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:18:07 PM
#77
It really ceases being a viable scum gambit if only one of the two are scum. Unless you're saying you think he's going to try to force a lynch on the town of the two and indirectly clear his scummate when it fails.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 12:12:31 PM
#70
Tom Bombadil posted...
what do you think he is trying to accomplish by obsessing over me


If I thought he was scum I'd say he's scum doing something worthless to appear to be useful

I don't think he's scum though. I think he's just more concerned with "aha! look at these deductions I made!" than winning the game at this point. There's no reason to laser focus that hard on you that long unless he was legit having doubts on you. Which I guess could be the case we did manage to get some support on you.
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TopicFinal Fantasy Record Keeper Topic 45: Now with 100% more Odin
Lopen
06/28/19 11:55:36 AM
#219
Did another 11 draw with the 30 myth from today's gift dungeon

Alph Glint + Shantotto LMR

zzzzzzzzzz
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 11:53:37 AM
#63
How many villagers do we think are in a standardish setup of 21? I count 12 claims + reveals which seems on the high side. I think at least 2, maybe 3 of our villagers are lying town, which may clear all the remaining villagers but maybe not.
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TopicEnglish Literature Mafia Topic 16: Conflict Resolution
Lopen
06/28/19 11:31:11 AM
#50
Now can the liars that are town (aka not Cam) please post their actual roles

I'm pretty sure keeping it secret will do more harm than good at this point
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