Lurker > KanzarisKelshen

Sheep007 posted...

The problem with that model is that Neab gets shot and Han claims roleblocked every time.

Then we get info because we know Neab is town and can reanalyze votals in that light

That is a win for us. It shrinks our suspect pool tinier and tinier and gets us either close to the point of PoE, or damn near it. The scum is running out of time, Sheep. Unless they pull an extra kill out of their asses, we are going to stomp them so long as we don't melt down. I seriously can't overstate how big it is that we have three (or if you subscribe to my trust in DYL, 4) townies that are generally above suspicion no matter what the scum do going into Day 4 with 10 players. We can match the scum's votes blow for blow and just need to sway whoever the unconfirmed townies are to put them in a hole they probably can't recover from.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But why does Neab not pick the option that confirms him in the first place?

Because bad, but now that he claimed we can fix that. Like...everyone tell me if you see anything wrong with this model:

If Neab sends anything but a doublevote chance to Johnbobb predicated on not voting me: We lynch him, gg no re.

If Neab claims roleblocked: Han gets a scan off unless the scum shoots him.

If John gets shot: Low priority townie died and we get good info and force scum into a bad play.

If Neab gets shot and Han RB'd: We find out for sure that he was town and force scum to shoot a weaker (albeit powered) player just to avoid having to deal with semi-confirmed town.

Like...somebody walk me through how this isn't a slam dunk for us. Every way I look at it, we have the scumteam forked and they have to choose between giving up a bishop or a queen. This glad challenge shouldn't even be debatable in the slightest.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Corrik posted...

Kanz's idea in no way confirms neab and I am at a loss for how he thinks it does. Pretty sure he is low-key deflecting from discussing the lynch here.

It confirms the role and in turn brings scrutiny to Neab (and if he can hand out doublevotes, he becomes a scum priority lynch because that's a powerful-ass effect). It's a gambit I cannot see the scum abiding by. Like, a lot of my play works off the Scumlord Theory, which is that while a town is about as good as the average of its playerbase, the scumteam is about as good as its best player. You're not the best player on a team unless you can get them to listen, thus, scumteams follow the lead of their scumlord. And what scumlord would ever tell Neab 'hey you should gambit with your mafia inventor role and try to look town', especially after he's in a position where handing JB a doublevote is such an obvious move? It requires immense trust in his ability to fake his townineness and, no offense to Neab, but I don't see any veteran player making that call. Hence, I strongly believe Neab to be town now. That Sheep would ever think confirming a role is not important is baffling. It's such a moronic play that I can barely even begin to make any sense of it.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sheep007 posted...

Didn't you answer that yourself? It was worthless, and I felt it was a better vote which was more likely to be beneficial. I don't like being on complete splinters at EoD.

But you have to to confirm neab

and confirming neab is a huge fucking deal because it makes both you and him much more likely to be town

like

why wouldn't you take the opportunity to confirm yourself like I did by going after (and then supporting) Han???????
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Even if it's useless, why not just take the flavor scan, there?

This imo
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sheep007 posted...

Dangit ronpaul

And yes this game has been rather dramatic and fun so far

joke name fully intentional I assure you

I bet this is exactly what the scum said when they woke up to no kills
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

htaeD posted...

Gladiator makes sense as a counter to the contracts though..

Making it even more ideal that this match is between the two.

This game has played like an actual dangit ronpaul game every step of the way so far, I wouldn't even be surprised in the slightest if things just worked out like that once again
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sheep007 posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

there's not going to be another daykill

Scum is atrociously overpowered if they get two shots we can't counter

how many games have you played where scum got two assassin kills? Same principle

Also that's fair but I am very very paranoid about scum being OP right now. Although if Han is scum as I think that means there's less need to balance it out.

Why would scum be that overpowered

We have oneshot jailkeep, cop, weak catched inventor, maybe watcher, day hider

That's not exactly a super OP set of roles
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

there's not going to be another daykill

Scum is atrociously overpowered if they get two shots we can't counter

how many games have you played where scum got two assassin kills? Same principle
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Corrik posted...

They could just kill John? Like if Neab is scum he could just kill John then say he gave him an invention?

This doesn't make sense on how it is supposed to confirm someone.

If they snipe john that's one more shot that's not going towards me or Han and I'm OK with that because it gives more time to unravel them. I'm OK with forcing scum into a weaker play just to cover their asses and throw some shade on Neab.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sheep007 posted...

Corrik posted...

Did I miss something? How does johnbobb confirm him?

I think Kanz says John confirms him as inventor, since he doesn't think scum have a full time inventor. I think if he does have such a crappy ability as Jack, he does something actually useful like hitting Sultan with it.

This

I believe John is town and don't buy scum getting a random-ass dead role like inventor just for mindgames

Thus, I assume that if Neab is confirmed by someone I trust for now, then he can be potentially also town - which would clear the scumspect list a bunch
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

On a basic level, ignoring everything else (for a moment, it matters still), this is how this goes:

A) Doop is scum, Neab is town: We kill Doop, neab lives and confirms himself with JB or draws a roleblock/shot. Town comes out ahead.

B) Doop is (terrible) town, Neab is town: We kill Doop, curse him out for panic-gladding, Neab plays out the same as above.

C) Doop is town, Neab is scum: We kill Doop, Neab doesn't confirm himself with JB, we smash him.

D) Doop is scum, Neab is scum: lol mafia

Saving Doop is a good move in literally no circumstances because Neab can't survive tomorrow if scum. He can't claim RB'd unless Han gets a scan off, so he just dies horribly and we go 1:1 with the scum which strongly favors us. If somebody has a good reason to spare Doop that isn't gutfeels, I'd love to hear it, because he's a vanilla now and thus less valuable than a power.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

I don't think so

Neab?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Was Type 0 popular? Cause I know 3rd Birthday is hated. Its considered to have killed Parasite Eve permanently. So I'm not sure Tabata's games have had such a good reception aside from Crisis Core.

(I agree Square is prolly not gonna get better tho. It'd be a major miracle if they pulled and Id Software and resurrected themselves with a megagame, but Id was busy getting top talent and Square's alienated it instead. We're probably not seeing a good FF in the next decade.)
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Not really

Bad product hurts you, particularly lots of it and square has shoveled out a ton of shit. Square needs less but higher quality volume to keep their brand sustainable before it allows itself to crank out turds again. Tabata leaving is a good thing because it means new directors to make games come together better.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

I reiterate that the only reason I see DYL as not Scum is that it was weird for him to claim so readily that he was the other person to visit FD.

Sheep posted

Corrik, I was given a contract from Neab, and was notified I would have a flavour cop if I voted Puns.

Did it say it was from Neab?

And Corrik, I tried to scan Neab again.

Not that he had the hammer vote on sbell?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Sheep007 posted...

Flavour Cop is pointless, I agree, which is why I think it's legit. There's no way Town would have anything which gives powerful abilities our given the already tipped balance

Also scum definitely have 5 or are very overpowered and 4. I'm leaning 5.

The fact I find myself agreeing with you leaves me worried sheep, but I can't find fault in this reasoning. I cant see neab risking his ass like this for nothing after hinting so long, and doop's mega early glad doesn't track as a town move (can explain more in a min). There's also no upshot at all to lynching neab so I can't see a reason not to vote doopliss instead.

##Vote: Doopliss
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

htaeD posted...

Uhm yeah.. wouldnt scum have to use their own flavor?

I didnt check. Is that what Sbell did?

He gave no flavor iirc

just role
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

htaeD posted...

Scum dont have RB to counter towns protection, but to counters towns everything.
(Though whether its one-shot or not doesnt matter in that overall setup)

This

The RB is the lynchpin of scum's actions

Losing RB early is for them as devastating as us losing cop

it's why I think there has to be one. They'd have to be outrageously OP to make up for it - even more than having an assassin shot that is a daykill.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

oh btw

Neab if you live give Johnbobb a gift. I am dead serious about this and it's your optimal play if town.

I can justify this later (have to leave for work soon) but I am 100% confident in this. It's by far the best choice.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

BTW, let's do a bit of role meta for Doop/Neab

We KNOW scum has:

-A godfather/commuter
-A daykiller (as no townies have shown up to counter this, it is the only reasonable assumption for how Chris died)
-A roleblocker (standard mafia setup requirement)
-At most, five players.

This gives us three out of four or five roles. At this point, we have to ask ourselves if scum has a ninja. That'd be 4/4 powered mafiosi, or 4/5, all to cancel out a single Watcher role that already has a miller counter if we take DYL at his word. Does this make sense to you guys? It kind of doesn't to me. Then we have to ask ourselves if scum has a glad - this does seem more plausible, especially if it's a 4 man scumteam, as it gives them a vote control tool. They'd get an assassinlike role, a godfather role, a roleblocker role (the ol standbys in other words) and one weird role to do plays with, which would be needed against a town with a day hider AND cop. Does anyone see a reason why Glad wouldn't fit in with the other mafia roles we know they have?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Also also

If han is lying sbells godfather is totally worthless

Han is town he just is. Stop trying to cast shade on the cop.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Also sheep on my scumlist again for suggesting mass on gladday

Cmon son
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Han lying doesnt track with last night's votes

Think with votals my dudes, he's town
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Xiahou Shake posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Good

Getting rid of bad dev heads forces square to bring in new talent

Maybe this will allow for some renovation and renaissance

This would be on the money except that Tabata was the bloody miracle worker that salvaged FFXV from Nomura's decade-long fumbling of the ball. He was by all rights a very talented director and probably the sort that Squeenix desperately needs right now, and they turned him away. Meanwhile, Tetsuya "what deadlines" Nomura is still at the company poisoning every non-KH game he touches. If KH3 isn't any good either then they're going to be in an amazingly bad place.

He was also the guy who did Third Birthday, which was actual garbage. His record is Not Good. Nomura meanwhile got BBS, Dream Drop Distance and now KH3 (soon) out the door while helping with other projects. I'll take the guy who produces good games, even if he needs editorial control, over the guy who doesn't. It wasn't Nomura who contributed to tanking Square's reputation. Tabata has exactly one good game to his credit, Crisis Core, and everything else has been misses.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Actually they did learn something - the games director, Hajime Tabata, has left the company.

Good

Getting rid of bad dev heads forces square to bring in new talent

Maybe this will allow for some renovation and renaissance
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Corrik posted...

Kanz are you still 1 shot like u claimed on your roleblock? I know you changed your actual role to Jailkeeper afterwards.

Yes, that jailkeep was a one-off.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

##Vote: Doopliss

Feeling this now. Doop, I want you to gladiate Sultan. If you're town, I don't think you have much to fear here. How's that sound?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Alright! We're in a great position now. I was fully expecting Han to show up dead, but it looks like the scum wants to play a dangerous game. Hey, it's their funeral.

I'm going to make a big post of reads, because I think we're close to narrowing down who the remaining scum are by process of elimination. Going from top to bottom...

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Confirmed Town

Kanzaris (Me): Obvious, really.

Strongly Lean Town

Han: He's not 100% because I can't be completely sure of anyone who isn't myself, but I would be very surprised if he was scum after yesterday.
DYL: He had absolutely nothing to gain if scum from hopping onto SBell, and it was his vote that allowed us to bag him. I know Han doesn't buy into him, but he's looked very, very town since the end of day 1.
Johnbobb: The mafia specialed onto him in a transparent attempt to save SBell and he went on SBell and stayed there when it counted. He could be scum but he's way down my list after the shenannes of last night. Votes don't lie that easily.

Lightly Lean Town

Puns: Followed me onto Han, had a solid take on him, but his votehops are kind of weird. I have better vibes from him than most though, regardless.
Corrik: Has played lazy, but hasn't felt scummy. This is a gut read, not one with evidence backing it up, but I'm content keeping him here until I have more reasons to suspect him.

Lightly Lean Scum

Neab: Not very good votes including a vote on JB, was shady Day 1. Sbell landing on him is a mild credit to him though.
Death: I can never read Death and I feel like the scum HAS to have at least one strong player. He fits the bill, and his hesitance to chase Han and leave his vote there is kind of a nulltell leaning towards scum covering its ass on what was going to be a town on town lynch, but I don't have good evidence here.
Sheep: Try rereading Sheep's attacks on me yesterday after I dropped the bomb. I was offering a plausible explanation and a potential scumcatch, yet he kept trying to cast doubts without really committing and saying 'no I don't believe you, I think you're lying'. That's a scummy weakass callout, as is the fact he voted Han at the end with a '#YOLO', wanting to kill him after spending so long not being convinced.
IGCD: NOTE: God voted SBell at the end and his vote was not counted. This is just a host error probably, but worth noting because EoD votals say he didn't end day on anyone and that isn't true. Regardless, he was very noisy when the lynch was on Han saying it was bullshit then suddenly went super quiet later on and disappeared. Considering how busy EoD was, I don't like this at all.

Strongly Lean Scum

Sultan: Tried to special Johnbobb on weakass reasoning. Has acted rather scummy.
Doop: "SBell hasn't come off as super scummy to me, but better than an uncountered cop claim. Anyone want to finish JB?". Yeah no.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah, Squall is already making moves. His number is going to look normal by the end of the day.

The real issue is Zelda going god mode.

Is this zelda godmode, or is this MGS collapse? It's kinda hard to say so far because most of MGS has just looked like total garbage it seems. If it's the latter Squall has a very serious shot at beating Zelda here
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

JB has seemed scum

but this splinter attempt is sorry and I'm not letting it happen

Three of the most towny-looking guys atm are on Sbell. If you're splintering, you're trying to hand the mafia a freebie, and screw that.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

turbopuns2 posted...

Chris's role was fully posted there is no mention of blocking a day kill

why call it a hider then

Hiders block kills (aimed at them)

like you might as well call it by a custom name if it doesn't actually do what the role does

No. Bodyguards block kills and hiders die when targeting scum plus if scum shoots a player that was targeted by the hider both that player and the hider will die.

no as in

if a hider hides behind town and is targeted by a kill, it misses them

that's the theory behind hiders (sometimes assassins and shit can kill through the hide, not always tho)

so a day hider should be able to duck the daykill, which would make sense if it and the omniblocker can both foil it - introduce some failchance to what is otherwise a singularly OP role.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

turbopuns2 posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

turbopuns2 posted...

Chris's role was fully posted there is no mention of blocking a day kill

why call it a hider then

Hiders block kills (aimed at them)

like you might as well call it by a custom name if it doesn't actually do what the role does

Why are you asking me

cause im pretty sure monokuma is not gonna answer this question, mostly
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

turbopuns2 posted...

Chris's role was fully posted there is no mention of blocking a day kill

why call it a hider then

Hiders block kills (aimed at them)

like you might as well call it by a custom name if it doesn't actually do what the role does
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Obellisk posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Don't believe that. Day Hider (to block the daykill?), 1shot omniblocker (which would also cancel the daykill), 1shot jailkeeper and whatever puns might be if he's for real? That's a shitload of defensive power. Feels way overkill.

We know that the omni blocker blocks a day kill?

Day hider doesn't block anything.

What?

And yes this game is way OP I said that already

Do you see a reason why it wouldn't? AFAIK; BP always blocks kills (except arguably SK kills). Same concept for defensive auto-RBs. And yes, a day Hider would, assuming it was used early enough, block the daykill. I can't see it not working like that because it just seems obvious.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Don't believe that. Day Hider (to block the daykill?), 1shot omniblocker (which would also cancel the daykill), 1shot jailkeeper and whatever puns might be if he's for real? That's a shitload of defensive power. Feels way overkill.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Corrik posted...

I don't believe this claim but lynching uncountered cop claim... Ughhhhhh.

Uncountered cop claim with a full action claim that solves the mystery of how he survived, no less

There's no reason to disbelieve Han anymore. This solves the mystery and clears him for now, so we can finally start doing something good and stop sitting around twiddling our thumbs. I think we got something real out of this day, because we finally have solid material to work with. That vote train on Han is basically our goldmine.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

dammit kanz you not actually lying about saying you could protect me to but it just being for that is the corniest dumb shit I've had to deal with in weeks

It's Danganronpa man

Let me have my plot twist when I'm making a play

I wanted to energize town and get us out of stagnation, I wanted to know if you were for real, and I wanted to get a good read on other people. Now I've got it because I know, I KNOW we have at least two scum on the train I made and we can catch em. I got as much out of a oneshot jailkeep as anyone possibly could've, I think, and now we can take momentum back from the scum.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

(For those not keeping score: what this means is that my RB was a jailkeep. Sheep was right about there being something off about my action, because I needed to push Han to make sure he was honest. It was a double-edged sword, but it paid off because now I am extremely positive of where to hunt assuming this SBell chase pays off.)
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

All I wanted to know. Because I didn't just roleblock you. My roleblocking action...was also an action to protect you from nightkills!

##Unvote
##Vote: Sbell

I kept this in my pocket because I needed to know, beyond reasonable doubt, that I could trust you Han. Now I do. Let's chase this lead and see where it goes.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

If you're town, you have to trust me on this. I led this lynch because I was confident it had to be pursued and was willing to bet my life on it needing to be said and cleared. I'm not listening for kicks and giggles. If you're town, if you think you can win us this game still, I need you to claim. It's not for naught, just do it.

I would rather wait to claim tomorrow (given I live through the night)

Not a chance. This is a matter of trust. If you claim (and soon - I don't want any 15 minute scrambles at the last possible moment), I'm willing to consider other options. If you don't, I'm not going anywhere and your odds of dying are through the roof. Gimme something and you'll get something back. Trust me.

I don't trust that I'll be getting anything out of claiming. Unless you're lying about your claim, you have nothing to offer.

What if I said you're wrong? What if I'm truthful and can still give you a chance? I'm giving you until 25. After, the door closes. We can work together and live, or fight each other and die. Your choice.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Corrik posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

If you're town, you have to trust me on this. I led this lynch because I was confident it had to be pursued and was willing to bet my life on it needing to be said and cleared. I'm not listening for kicks and giggles. If you're town, if you think you can win us this game still, I need you to claim. It's not for naught, just do it.

I would rather wait to claim tomorrow (given I live through the night)

You won't make it without a claim. Did no one learn from scare. Jesus. It is like a tape on repeat

Seriously

Han, there's something I can do to save you but it's not happening without a claim. I am as serious about this as I was about the fact I blocked you last night. If you want to live, you have to trust. Do you?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

If you're town, you have to trust me on this. I led this lynch because I was confident it had to be pursued and was willing to bet my life on it needing to be said and cleared. I'm not listening for kicks and giggles. If you're town, if you think you can win us this game still, I need you to claim. It's not for naught, just do it.

I would rather wait to claim tomorrow (given I live through the night)

Not a chance. This is a matter of trust. If you claim (and soon - I don't want any 15 minute scrambles at the last possible moment), I'm willing to consider other options. If you don't, I'm not going anywhere and your odds of dying are through the roof. Gimme something and you'll get something back. Trust me.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But if I don't claim then Corrik will mindlessly push for my lynch, I flip Town, and then people will still claim that Corrik is good at mafia despite evidence showing otherwise :(

Yeah but on the other hand if you're town and you sell me on it, we go for sbell, and if he flips we run a train on the scum, so, like

you win some you lose some, ya know?

Here's the thing though - either I have a night action and you are telling the truth and I have nothing to offer because I was roleblocked, or I have no night action and nothing to offer.

(If I had an action and wasn't blocked I of course would not still be saying I think you're Town)

Han

If you're town, you have to trust me on this. I led this lynch because I was confident it had to be pursued and was willing to bet my life on it needing to be said and cleared. I'm not listening for kicks and giggles. If you're town, if you think you can win us this game still, I need you to claim. It's not for naught, just do it.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

(grabbing food quickly - I would really appreciate that claim Han. Gimme a reason to believe in you.)
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

But if I don't claim then Corrik will mindlessly push for my lynch, I flip Town, and then people will still claim that Corrik is good at mafia despite evidence showing otherwise :(

Yeah but on the other hand if you're town and you sell me on it, we go for sbell, and if he flips we run a train on the scum, so, like

you win some you lose some, ya know?
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

nope

That'd honestly be appreciated right about now Han

If you're really town don't leave us hanging til the last minute
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

Alright.

@turbopuns2 , what's your take on Han's defense so far? @Corrik ?

(Anyone else who wants to comment, by all means go ahead.)
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Yes, especially when enough people said that they supported it. It was like, 3 different people getting votes with 2 votes each. And one of the other people was someone who I have felt bad about. Regardless, there weren't really any emergent trains, especially none for someone I would heavily fight against (like I should have D1), so I've been assuming that DYL was going to be lynched the whole day. No reason to think otherwise.

And I read DYL's posts on SBell. I might just be biased at this point but his arguments seemed mostly senseless and not the correct arguments to make on SBell.

Aight. Sell me on why SBell is the right call, because I do feel DYL is at the very least making real attempts and I don't feel him as a lynch at all.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.

A 3-person 3 vote split is things going your way? Seriously? >_>

IfGodCouldDie posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

IfGodCouldDie posted...

This literally makes no sense. Kanz, claim is bs. The people voting Han are bs. Get back on DYL, lynch scum!

Give reasons because I am not hopping off Han with this weak shit lmao

I'm staking my life on this and you think I'm going to flinch over this?

So you're saying you expect to be lynched tomorrow if he flips town?

Absolutely. If Han's town, it'll lose one of its strongest voices and people will call for my head, and they'll be right to do so. I did not throw this info out lightly, I knew what the risks were. So unless you have something stronger than the risk of death, get the hell outta here with those DYL lynch callouts.
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Shine on, you crazy diamond.