Lurker > Thorn

So, at risk of opening up the polling discussion again, I finally got a tweet that put all the special election data together so I can post that instead of just saying it.

This is the reason why I think "dooming" is the wrong take right now: In 2023 Special Elections across the country Dems have been overperforming Biden 2020 by over 6 points across a variety of types of states (red, blue, swing) capped just now with flipping a Trump 2020 NH state district with a 12 point win and holding onto their one-seat majority in Pennsylvania with a 7.5 point overperformance against 2020.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1704308533527712140

So despite the media narrative around Biden polls, Dems have been doing considerably better in 2023 than they did in 2020. And to my knowledge special election results going significantly in favor of a party is a better major election year predictor than over-a-year-out Presidential polls. And I don't mean that in a snarky way or even a "President Kerry, President Hillary, Reagan losing in '84" one-liner way, pretty sure the data supports that (and that in general Prez polling this far out does not have a strong correlation with results at all really.)

And because I know it'll come up if I don't put up this disclaimer, and still might anyway, but do not mistake me saying this as complacency or "consider it called." Just that "doom" is just straight up wrong from a data standpoint.

Jets aren't watching Caleb Williams tape they're listening to Eye of the Tiger with Rodgers hoping he somehow returns this season which is absolutely ridiculous.

Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom beated (finally after like 3.5 months lol)

Endgame was really, really good. The Depths section leading up to it could have been better even if I think the sage powers ceasing to work was a good idea. Once you return to the point you started the game at it's A+ atmosphere with the music and being able to clear the debris off the rest of the murals, etc. Big brawl between the enemies and Link + Sages was neat, if simple. Final boss fight so good though. Might be my favorite Ganon fight in the series (previous was probably TP) Mostly the first two phases. Oh man when Ganondorf could also use bullet time in the second form I almost flipped LOL. The super gloom completely eating your hearts like they did at the start of the game was a nice touch as well. I had a tough time getting used to some of the timing on flurry rushes here. Like it's mostly the same moveset as Phantom Ganon but I swear the timing is a bit different. And I never learned how to avoid getting hit when he pulls out his bow LOL. I somehow made it out one time but completely by accident. Dragon phase is anime af and my least favorite but I treated it more as a victory lap.

The Ending Sequence had its ups and downs, but mostly ups. When Dragondorf exploded I feel like the explosion went right through the Forest. Did we just kill the Deku Tree and all the Koroks lol? Reaching out to grab Zelda's hand and the "Find Princess Zelda [Complete]" was excellent. During the credits I went through a rollercoaster. See, you always knew Zelda would be restored because Nintendo wouldn't be that grim, but my very first reaction was not liking how it was done with Rauru and Sonia's Force Ghosts coming back to do so. Talking to Impa after the geoglyphs have all been found has her say she refuses to believe she can't be restored and will look into the ancient texts they have. I realize you can't really cut back to the game after Ganon and have this be an honest-to-god quest without killing the flow but I think it'd be more satisfying if this was DLC or god forbid a 3rd game plot lol. But then during the credits towards the end when it showed the images of Link giving a handshake to all the sages when they made their vows I started thinking "wait is the implication that Zelda also achieved this with Link at the very start and maybe unknowingly pulled some BS to enable her restoration? I can vibe with that. ...Only for the post-credits scene to happen and Mineru throw cold water on my theory with her own lol. It was otherwise a very nice scene though.

A+ Zelda game again. Very hesitant to try to rank it because god it's been like 3.5 months how I can do this fairly? Top 2-3 though? Probably above BOTW?

oh no have to root against my bonus because i need pittsburgh to win

Oh I could have gotten it ages ago, before I even did the Dragon Tears since I just happened to stumble on it when during a Sky Island exploration the Light Dragon was right there and I landed on it and found it, I just didn't do anything with it and was waiting to see if the plot would ever point me towards it - which it finally did.

Zelda: And all of a sudden I think I'm at endgame. I'll break this up into three "parts" given how you can do things in any order.

Hyrule Castle: Given how BOTW Hyrule Castle was probably the GOAT Zelda dungeon/area this was always going to be an impossible bar for TOTK to meet and yeah it's definitely not as good even though it's the same area. The boss cutscene was really cool though when Fake Zelda transformed the Sanctum and started warping around talking to Link. Missed opportunity to have the boss *be* Fake Zelda a la TP's Puppet Zelda fight. A bunch of Phantom Ganons was lame in comparison, but may have been more intimidating if I hadn't fought them (albeit 1v1) a bunch of times now. Ganondorf talking shit afterwards unearned tbqh, I won without taking any damage bro put some respect on my name. also how did the sages get here. outside tulon of course.

Spirit Temple (well mostly the leadup to it but easiest way to classify it): Returning to Purah and our next task is to find the fifth sage because apparently only Purah kept track of the fact that there were 6 and we've only accounted for 4 + Zelda because the other sages were shocked. She vaguely tells us to investigate ruins. Now since I know where the Spirit Temple is, know the Thunderstorm Islands, Tobio's Hollow, and Construct Factory have unique music which is a characteristic of temple stuff I "know" where we're going but I pretend I don't. Weirdly Yunobo point you towards Tarrey Town because he wants to make sure he has worst sage on lock. I humored him but I think it's a total dead end and no one there even acknowledges anything about this. So I head to Kakariko since apparently it took fighting Fake Zelda to get people to believe that she *was* a fake despite Link knowing damn well she was. And Paya trusts him implicitly and lifts the ban on the Ring Ruins so it's like we could have done this ages ago. This starts a kinda neat scavenger hunt in Faron that eventually dispels the thunderstorms around those last sky islands. I find the final shrine up there and eventually reach the end. LOOOOOL back during my big exploration I actually tried to fly into this area and stumbled upon the Shrine at the very end based only on radar pings but immediately bailed because visibility was basically zero. I was like 10 feet from Mineru. Though I dunno if I had the hearts to open the door at that time. Anyway this opens up a chasm to the Construct Factory and we put Mineru together. At one of the depots I think I couldn't figure out how you were supposed to get the part across the various lava portions but you can just send it most of the way with Ultrahand and then pick it up from the other side. I realize at the very end that the Construct Factory *is* the "Dungeon" and to my disappointment the Spirit Temple is literally just a boss arena. Mineru's power is interesting but Link is just a lot more effective on foot I think. Also I found it weird the Construct at the Construct Factory never reacted to any of this happening during or after.

Master Sword: Finally Link is told to go get it. Since I started the first part of this kinda on accident by saving the Deku Tree so I could access the Korok Forest I get to skip the beginning part of this but talking to Purah she just says "go see the Deku Tree" so I don't think I missed much. Seeing how I found out the Master Sword was on the Light Dragon a long time ago when I also learned you could land on the dragons now it was just a matter of opening the quest log to see where it currently was and dropping on to it. Huh, a Stamina check. Wasn't expecting that. Seemed like you needed 2 wheels too. Not sure you can cheat that with Bonus Stamina but that's actually a bit higher than I expected even if it's "only" 5 upgrades.

I return to Purah and the next item on the agenda is locating Ganondorf but again we've already solved this by doing the Josha quest about Kohga. So Purah then says all preparations are complete and the only thing left to do is defeat Ganondorf and I get a new main quest for just that. And seeing as how I've completed every quest I've been given with the exception of that new one and the original "Find Princess Zelda" (Haven't we done this technically? lol) I think it's endgame time next.

Probably tomorrow though.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

is this the biggest dungeon in the series so far? because it feels like it

If you count Liber Ark as one big dungeon, absolutely not LOL. If you don't... I think so?

ZeldaTPLink posted...

The game tries to hype Guenter by having Josh say he's crazier than Weissmann. I can buy it, but I need to see it first. Weissmann was something else.

I love all the smack talk Estelle and Joshua casually drop here that only they would get by comparing Joachim unfavorably to Weissmann. Like you know it's bad when these two are like, "Weissmann had more of a moral center than this guy."

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Oh shit he went alt-right. He went alt-right! Take him down!

I LOL'd when you said it could have been worse if they'd been taking red pills back in Chapter 4 when Lloyd foudn the Gnosis on the gambling miner knowing this would come.

Trails of Azure hype. It's sooooooo good.

lmfao washington

edit: booooo shouldn't get to win after that hail mary that didn't even reach the endzone but still worked

That's a turnover on Cook I think. And basically game ending if confirmed.

Edit: oh, down by contact so maybe not game ending if the defense holds

Weak roughing call against the Jets IMO but eh they have only themselves to blame for that drive.

jets needed that would-have-been pick 6 from sauce

okay maybe dak has to play out the first half

cowboys should rest their starters on offense now. they've done their job. no need to risk an injury in garbage time.

Saleh should be fine, none of this shit is on him and he's helped coach this defense into a Top 5 one. Honestly I feel like the Rodgers stuff, which is the root cause of this, came from ownership so there will be no accountability.

They probably just write this off as a wasted year because of Rodgers's injury but if there are firings it'll be the wrong people.

idk about the giants

Crescent-Moon posted...

Jets are so desperate for offense that they fake a punt on their own 19 in the first quarter.

Wow.

Romo trying so hard to will this into a game.

"huge moment for the jets"

is it, though?

edit: lol yep just delayed the punt by 3 plays

sorry romo

we already saw that zach wilson is the same zach wilson he always was last week with that atrocious int

Oh wow, this week really snuck up on me. Nearly missed the Sunday games! ...not that it matters i hate all my options here lol

Level 2: Steelers
Bonus: 2

Yeah, Randy's Bond Scene is definitely the best of the Zero ones IMO.

But this is the start of Falcom gating crucial character stuff behind bond events. I'd actually argue that Azure might be the worst of them in that regard lol.

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Oh nice the country's army has been zombified too

Fun Fact: Either earlier that day or maybe the day before, if you go to Bellguard and talk to Mirelle she mentions that St. Ursula sent them some new supplements.

Also in what I think is one of the odder moments where the game remembers what you did, IIRC the dialogue is changed during the scene where the party is running through Crossbell when you run into Ilya. If, during the Intermission, you brought KeA with you to Ilya's apartment you find her sleeping and KeA remarks on it again here calling her something like "the lady who sleeps funny!"

On a more serious level, I absolutely love how the game's BGM changes to Ancient Pulsation (the Ancient Battlefield music) once the SSS and Dudley figure out Joachim's involvement. Such a good song and I love the atmosphere it gives at that moment.

ExThaNemesis posted...

If there's enough good Fate content within that, I could probably be talked into playing it.

oh god no

it's too late for me but you can still save yourself

Seriously though, it would take a lot of time to get there and much of that time will not be fun.

Haven't accomplished much in Zelda since last update but something I've meant to say but haven't is that it's really cool some of the little things you can do that aren't quests but there are reactions to.

Stuff like that one Gerudo who was throwing love letters in bottles into the river and if you bring one over to her she reacts, thinks Link is her fated partner, claims she isn't ready yet, but then will give you free meals (bad ones because she's not good at cooking) from then on. Or Zonai Research Team members staring at the gacha like machines that give out Zonai devices, wondering what they're for who will then react when you use it, now knowing what they do. (though at least one of them has since forgotten it seems)

Neat stuff.

As for story, turns out Purah wants me to go to Hyrule Castle because no one has learned that's a fake Zelda despite everything we've gone through. Also aw yeah Lookout Landing Town Theme changing - one of my favorite music tropes. Love the new elements added to it now.

Fate/Grand Order's Lostbelt 6 might be peak Fate content.

sooooo good

but yeah that's a lot of investment to get there

pyresword posted...

Dudley definitely has the best S-Craft in the series and no I will not be taking questions or comments.

Kevin in 3rd.

And also CS3+ Machias.

Kenri posted...

Is this not just because everyone got like $2k from the government in 2021?

Also Manchin refusing to renew the Child Tax Credit.

But yeah, standing by my Biden odds for now. As for VPs, Biden replacing Harris would be such an own goal regardless of our actual feelings about her. Even for Whitmer you're getting the ~optics~ of switching from a black woman to a white woman. It's just needlessly causing problems with a vital component of the base. And I say that as someone who has repeatedly been high on Whitmer's future - but the path for her would be to run in 2028 (against Harris if necessary), not becoming Biden's VP.

Leonhart4 posted...

That's what you were supposed to do, actually! But I kept trying to find the "legitimate" way to get there and eventually looked up the solution. I was pretty annoyed!

oh.

well... lol.

that's pretty silly

Speaking of Zelda.

Goron City/Fire Temple beated. Felt a lot more straightforward and shorter than the Zora and Gerudo ones, not that I'm complaining. Fire Temple though I feel like I cheesed at the end with climbing and Ascend and that I didn't get to the last two gongs the intended way, but oh well, I did look around for a bit before resorting to that! Think I finished up the Goron City quests as well. Guess next time I'll go report back to Purah and see what she wants me to do next.

Xiahou_Shake posted...

Gotta wonder what kind of rampant delisting we might see if this doesn't get walked back due to absolutely universal backlash.

But even if you delist on Steam isn't it still "there" for people who bought it prior? If some bad actor chose to just write a script to install/uninstall it repeatedly would the dev even have a recourse other than appealing to Steam and hoping they stop it?

but foolmo they believe the number is accurate

JonThePenguin posted...

The former EA guy who was once quoted as suggesting they could charge for reloads in an FPS is the CEO.

well if nothing else he's living out his dream now

bold strategy, cotton

KommunistKoala posted...

They actually can't at the moment because the pick is still technically a conditional pick that isn't evaluated until the season is over

thank god, saved from their own incompetence (by a different act of incompetence but i will take anything right now)

for trey lance? i think not.

that's the kind of galaxy brain play they'd make for stafford though

I dunno what the Jets front office does in this situation. Thankfully I think they simply don't have many options so they can't do something catastrophic again but knowing them they may still find a way.

Obellisk posted...

why is there an impeachment inquiry into Biden going on? is this just tit for tat politics?

1. Because they want to devalue the weight of impeachments by launching frivolous ones so that Trump's impeachments look less bad (i.e. "oh i guess impeachments are just something that happen now")
2. Because their base demands it because they think Biden is some criminal mastermind (that also isn't aware of his surroundings)
3. Yeah, just plain retaliation ("You did it to us so now we're going to do it to you!") regardless of the reality of the situation.
4. It's possible this is part of the deals McCarthy made to attain the Speakership in the first place and he has to give the more extreme parts of his caucus what they want or they'll refuse to support him as Speaker and force a leadership change. I... kinda.... am skeptical of this, but not impossible.

FWIW, this is just an impeachment inquiry AFAIK which is basically the earlier stage and not an actual impeachment vote. I have my doubts the House could actually pass an impeachment vote if it gets to that stage. Two House GOP members have already stated they oppose it. I believe McCarthy can only afford to lose 4 of his own votes before it would fail a full vote of the House.

Ashethan posted...

My Post Week 1 Overreaction Predictions:

zach wilson leading the jets to the promised land of the 15th pick sounds about right

No way, they let way too much time run off and it quickly became apparent they were playing for OT and not trying to just win it in regulation by going for the TD. I guess if they were afraid Allen would commit another turnover but I'd be pretty livid if I were a fan of theirs that they seemingly settled.

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Egregious missed calls at end of game.

The OPI on the Bills last regulation drive was bad, I agree. OTOH, I feel like their clock management on that drive was also trash so I'm not totally sure it changes the outcome, just a less exciting FG.

LeonhartFour posted...

man why did the Jets call timeout there

that was about to be a delay of game

saleh had yes on the ladder bonus question

zach wilson delivering us the bonus point

zach wilson redemption arc

peyton is correct here. no passes.

"what about a screen-"

no, wilson can't make those either. just run it. actually, can hall throw? if he can i will allow it, but that's literally it.

I should honestly turn off this game because I'm just getting more and more aggravated hearing Peyton, SVP, etc. go "[If you were a Jets fan] you couldn't have imagined this in your worst nightmare."

yes we fucking could

Maybe not at ESPN because that's where Greenberg was running this circus from but anyone who actually gave a fuck about this team knew this was a terrible decision from the very start that was completely in character with Johnson's ownership of playing to whatever gets the most media attention instead of doing what you should be doing from a football perspective.

The OL has been the biggest problem with this team for years, even beyond the QB. Hell, it's arguable many of the QB problems were because of the OL - see Geno last year. Was anything really done about it this year? No. In fact, they gave up their first to the Packers to get Rodgers and guess what? Just like I and Crescent were saying there was an OL at the Jets OG pick and SURPRISE there wasn't with the Packers pick they swapped for.

They brought this on themselves and it was easily telegraphed. Did I think it would implode in four snaps? No, not exactly that fast, but this was so easy to see coming jfc. Even if Rodgers never got injured this season he'd spend it running for his life like every Jets QB in over a decade.

10 points is probably enough to beat the Zach Wilson Jets, so this is over. They needed to hold the Bills to a FG and win like 9-6.

save_us breece hall

Leonhart4 posted...

ESPN, NBC, and Amazon already lamenting all the primetime games they gave the Jets

if bezos can force an ownership change...!

a cart going to the medical tent

jfc i can't even be satisfied that "i called it" because the front office ignored the fucking offensive line for the n-th year in a row because SHINY OBJECTS! RODGERS! DALVIN COOK! but it's just fucking exhausting

i'd like to say it at least ends the media circus but of course it won't

first pass attempt for rodgers and the o-line gives up pressure lmao

edit:

second one - hit while throwing
third - sack... maybe hurt?

one more hour until the circus opens

HaRRicH posted...

Have any of you thought this through beyond the word "disguise?"

excuse me. have you seen ocean's eleven? you go in there with george clooney, brad pitt, and matt damon and i think you're going to get results.

I stumbled into it on my first fight with them back during the major exploration saga (since a few can be found outside the shrouded parts of the desert) because I saw weapon attacks didn't work. Switched to see if this was a slash v blunt type thing, saw it wasn't, then was like "...what about setting it on fire?" and threw a fire fruit at it.