Lurker > Lopen

PunishedBen posted...

I was out of state on vacation day 1. We should all know this

Not saying you made it up

Saying you may have leaned into it more than needed

Ben as gf tracks with an inactive d1 too. I could absolutely see him playing that way to draw cop scan.

Ben not doing a dumb claim d1 was totally suspicious-- hey Ben why didn't you do that

Chaeix posted...

and it can just as equally be them trying to block his scan and succeeding, with me still being town

you should change your game state to be based on that one

Why would scum bus ever use their bus drive on someone that isn't their team. You are not the obvious scan target by any stretch

PunishedBen posted...

Oh. If he literally got back that Plum was town then that must be the role block in effect. He literally got Plummoxxed

This is Ben suggesting a theory that it's the scum rb to explain it away.

Chaeix posted...

That wouldnt explain why plum is still alive and wasnt roleblocked, unless we think mafia doesnt have an RB.

I think a more likely situation is they tried to RB him, shot red, and the RB was redirected to me where it fizzled.

JC making the idea that it's bus to bring out idea that bus is in game but without thinking scum bus was possible

Ben is probably innocent scanning scum bus who wanted to claim bus or not bus depending on how stuff played out

Chaeix posted...

Im fully open to a scum driver situation. It would make sense. Aint me though!

Bus can't drive itself so yeah it isn't you it was protecting you

Ben is definitely scum

Claims he had me on any sort of list day 1 which he was not here for

Then today he says "where has Lopen been!?!?!" one hour into today like missing day 2 was weird when it was only 4 hours

Better theory than town bus

3 scum team
One scum gf
One scum bus driver (probably gf), uses bus on non gf (JC) to stop plum from scanning him

Safe to let plum live one day, hope people hate the plum claim that he scanned himself

Scum gf probably planning to claim town bus driver with jc setting the seeds

Also now there is town Bus in the setup

So scummy gameplan was to rb plum forever just as I said but this way you're confirmed town if I'm understanding right

Chaeix posted...

I have suggested bus driver at least twice now, and Lea quoted me suggesting it on the last page!

So if there is bus explain to me the exact actions that occurred

Chaeix posted...

There is a lot wrong with this post. You cant retroactively justify something by saying well it didnt go bad for scum. They dont know that. Theyre hedging their bets.

So what do you think happened to make plum target himself if this isn't to scum calculation.

In game

I'm not day doc.

Tracker and weak doc that is. Weak doc is basically a scanner

Chaeix posted...

And youre betting that scum thinks that plum was an easier mislynch than red? Really?

With tracker flipped and him suspecting Han absolutely. I protected plum day 1 for a reason

Chaeix posted...

Fair point, careless language.

Gameplan start right here btw

Chaeix posted...

Anyways Lopen I would like you to explain why plum was left alive and with a scan given your current interp of the game state

Did he get a usable scan? No. Ergo.

I'm thinking red seemed like a tougher mislynch. I'm guessing the play is to leave plum alive till endgame and try to say it's a bus and there is no cop.

Chaeix posted...

If Im 3P I dont believe a scumteam of 4 so Im not sure what this is getting at.

That you're faking it

Lopen posted...

Scum hammer on one town on town vote is really bad setup.

On Day 2. With no mislynches

Chaeix posted...

If I was SK/3P I wouldnt have made my oopsie with Corriks role last day. I made a dumb mistake by not thinking about the setup properly but if I was 3P (who likely had the extra shot) theres a 0% chance I believe it and the thought doesnt even cross my mind

Nope.

Once gambler was revealed to have shot you throw out corrik as vig, because you think 4 scum team in 14 before yesterday's lynch hijack.

10/4

Mzero desperado on town 8/4
Scum shot 7/4
Corrik shot on town 6/4
Doctor on scum 5/4

If you're seriously wondering if Corrik is vig and not just pretending to wonder you've already worked this out when Mzero reveals on suicide doctor. Scum hammer on one town on town vote is really bad setup.

PunishedBen posted...

Assuming that was Corrik, that was one of the most hilarious moments I've ever seen.

This reaction only ever comes from someone who directly benefits from the shot in some way.

Either scum who is amused or the one who directly made the shot

Like being honest that humor was not lost on me when I was catching up. But with like 16 hours to sit on it I didn't really feel it needed reiterating.

Then you have Ben and JC pushing the shot owner to claim and asking if Corrik is really vig.

Then you have a lot speculation about why plum targeted himself

Really just think JC/Ben early today is theatre.

JC as SK and Ben as Scum or vice versa I could also see. They both seem to be sk hunting early today with their posts. So it's either fake (by the sk itself) or from scum trying to trick the sk out of hiding.

SK or town vig who doesn't want to claim due to expecting people to think they're SK.

While 3 man scum team with one being able to do that is plausible, I do not think scum uses it on Han. I think Han was shot because the shooter thought he was scummy. Because I thought he looked super scummy yesterday.

What are we whatting?

Alright so here's my analysis of the game, that I did mostly yesterday after Han had died and I was unable to post anything.

First of all, game has to be 3 scum. It might be 10/3/1 or it might be 10/3 where the scumteam is balanced by being OP and/or town having suicidal roles. My reasoning for this is that consider this game state, 9 alive, 5 to lynch. Consider an alternate reality that instead of MZero blowing himself up on our weak doctor, he blows himself up on let's say plum. So we still have 2 kills d1. Now let's say n1 that Marth targets scum and dies. Everything else about the game would be the same, except now Marth killed himself and MZero killed another town. So we'd have today but with one more person dead. That would mean town would lose the game today without a single lynch having occurred.

I don't want to hang my hat on Chris balancing but this is very basic stuff that I'd expect even Sultan to realize. So it has to be a 3 person scum team.

So now that we're solving for a game state of 3 scum how do we approach this.

My big avenue was reactions to Plum's claim. To me once Isquen said "well I'm actually MILLER PROSTITUTE!!!" there was nothing further to really discuss.

4 people I thought were weird about it. Han, JC, Ben, Red. Probably in order of weirdness. Han and Red I don't care to make the case for because they're town obviously (unless they're Death Masons !!), but if you want it I can give it. As I was reading I was DREADING having to run back my promise on Han but good lord. Dude was very concerned about seeming VERY smart there and not just boiling it down to the obvious. Han if you're reading this, if a case is simple you don't need to build on it even further by diving into flavor it just makes you look scummy. I'm sorry but that's probably why you got shot.

So like to me the stuff that stuck out as weird was like... talking about flavor, talking about "why did Isquen sleep with blah blah" after he'd run back the claim of miller prostitute. JC engages in a lot of discussion with Isquen and I'm not really sure why. It feels disingenuous to me. JC also humors the possibility of Corrik being vig, when anyone could do the same analysis I just did and realize that vig makes very little sense in the setup.

Ben actually the big thing he looks for is not anything he did, but what Isquen did. Rather than thinking about whether Plum, the guy who has claimed a scan of him as scum, is scum. There are definitely ways this could happen-- say scumteam had a rolecop of some sort, realized they got busted but found the prostitute out of sheer luck. This is absolutely where my head would be at as town-- I wouldn't randomly vote some dude in the game. This feels like Isquen desperately distancing.

Lea and Corrik were also posting. I thought they for the most part looked fine. Lea looked a bit worse due to doing the same thing I got on Han for doing to a lesser extent but I think she was mostly just kinda dunking on scum. Corrik immediately suspected Han coming in late, which is exactly how I felt during catchup. There was good material there to suspect Han on.

So yeah, Isquen, Ben, JC.

I want to be able to explain why in case I get nked. Can still run an early day but don't want it to end now.

Isquen Ben JC scumteam I think.

##Unvote:

Rare footage of rocks being useful

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/2/4/AAAlMSAAEC2A.jpg

You get about $35 worth of credits. Better deal than spidey and sandman imo

PunishedBen posted...

Where the heck has Lopen been anyway?

Lol

##Vote: Isquen

Random thoughts tomorrow if day is still up

masterplum posted...

No, but it matters so little that the people who care are weird

Depends what you're listening to honestly and for what purpose.

Jakyl25 posted...

Token dump? Or was that a 1 time thing based on your CL when they first created the Token Shop?

One time. Logic was to account for the Tokens obtained on the way up I believe since they got added to the rewards track too.

I thought this was the coolest flavor victory ever

Turn 5 I played Spider-Man off of his Wave and he dropped Giganto into the left which he was already winning

I suspect and blind drop Charles Xavier into onslaught's citadel turn 6
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/8/3/1/AAAlMSAAECgP.jpg
He drops Master of Magnet into the citadel. Xavier taps his head.

Leonhart4 posted...

Uh, no. The reception to Force Awakens was generally more positive than that. VIII and IX made people retroactively sour on VII.

Agree when it came out

Once people had time to digest (by the time TLJ came out) people had cooled down on it and realized "well we were just kinda excited it wasn't prequel buffoonery hopefully it leads to good stuff"

Good run for my fave

Sure people were probably just proxy voting Bowser but I'd like to think maybe there is another Super Mario Bros Super Show fan or two here.

I will say that it's possible overpowered is sort of a superset of overtuned and anything that is overtuned is overpowered. I do think overtuned is generally parameter specific though.

Maybe

I don't doubt they're mistakenly used as synonyms but I do believe conceptually that was the difference.

It could be one of those things like literally where people misuse the word enough that the meaning is lost over time but yeah.

They're different words

Overtuned means conceptually it's fine but the numbers aren't properly thought out so it's too strong.

Overpowered means the concept itself isn't something that can be balanced because it fundamentally won't work no matter how much you nerf the numbers.

I got Winter Rogue which is really cool cause I don't like her default art. Not that Winter Rogue is amazing but it's an improvement.

Kinda nuts that she doesn't really have any variants I like yet though.

Koopa Klaus

ctesjbuvf posted...

No, back then I claimed as soon as you asked and you said it was too late. Your logic is ass.

Listen in post-game I can go over in detail I don't remember yugioh mafia that well to argue it here and it's not worth the time to unpack right now.

There is a time to claim as vanilla and a time to not. There is a style to claiming vanilla as vanilla that feels more legitimate.

The fact that you are internalizing the differences between this time and last time to me is almost a tell like "oh I could fakeclaim vanilla this way and Lopen will believe it"

BUT this is outweighed that at the same time that you're incredulous about it is giving me flash backs to the game where I was the insane psychic. And I also am not sure why you got votes to begin with.

So let's not lynch ctes. I strike him from my lynch list. Let's do JC.

Corrik7 posted...

Han was wasting time on someone not active. It was unproductive. He knew full well, as did you, that you couldn't make me play. That I am either busy or I am not and me being active had nothing to do with either of you

I disagree. Lots of good data about how people react to your play and try to discern your alignment even if we don't get you to play (which I think we would have if you got to -1)

ctesjbuvf posted...

This is ridiculous. In YGO mafia you were after me for days because a vanilla would not have hesitated to claim.

Completely different game states

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Don't think plum could fake that interaction

Corrik7 posted...

Why not Han?

What's he really done today?

He helped me make you play. Which is more than most town has done.

Are you just mad because he answered questions for Marth when you were grilling him.

Corrik who do we lynch.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Wtf is a good claim to you then? Your track record with me is terrible already. How do you claim that role better?

Explained too much. Also technically you didn't need to say vanilla as you were only being grilled for flavor. I think scum more often tries to squeeze out a vanilla claim when they have an excuse to so they blend in more later game when more start dropping.

Corrik7 posted...

Don't lynch anyone considered good or active. Lynch everyone else. Well, that's easy!

Reductive. I also threw out Mzero Marth and Ben as lynch candidates.

Are you saying we should lynch someone on the never lynch list. Who.

Never lynch
Han
Sbell
Plum
Corrik
Lea
Red

Possible lynch
Ctes
Isquen
Abacus
JC
Marth (never before Ctes)
Mzero (never before Isquen or Abacus)
Ben (never before Isquen or Abacus)

Here is the flowchart. Lynch ctes isquen Abacus or JC. I think JC has the most actual scummy posts today. That may be me having selection bias as he attacked me for a post then I said he read it wrong then he said "you're right I read it wrong" (if youre gonna go hard on me why not check your reading first) but I also feel he's being an albatross right now as we approach end of day.

Ctes had a really bad claim. Bad enough that I hate it more than Marth's. So you never lynch Marth before Ctes. Basically the case on both is the same but at least Marth is promising some sort of resolving quality.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


He is showing signs of engaging imo.

Or faking it. Not sustainable if faking.

Abacus and JC both lightly testing lynches no bueno. No fire in pushes. Why lynch Mzero here.

Always ctes before Marth. Thus never lynch Marth today.