Lurker > Meow1000

It's still actually really annoying how you guys think I would play such a disgustingly poor game as scum.

I'll gladly take the shot from Ctes ONLY under the stipulation that Kirby roleblocks Ulti.

Because Ctes shooting me actually does give you a way to win the game if you're scum. After a mislynch, you shoot me tonight and Kirby misses his block. You end up in a 50/50 with FD or Chang and Kirby who has sheeped you forever.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Like, you should be BEGGING ctes to confirm you. Begging. Youve voted him 4 days straight.

If Ctes shoots me Kirby roleblocks you. That's the deal.

changmas posted...

also like why has blade never suggest FD scum in the past two days its super weird

It's hard to see how FD's fits, or why FD would claim he was redirected on something so innocuous.

ctesjbuvf posted...

But you would not die from the shot if you are town.

The point is being the obvious shot tonight if the kill isn't stopped.

The only roleblock Kirby should ever make tonight in that shit is Ulti for suggesting it

UltimaterializerX posted...

Blade REALLY doesnt want you to target him.

If I was town and Id been voting you for 4 days Id offer the entire game a blowjob if it meant you could kill yourself with a dayvig gamble to confirm me.

Honestly, Im stunned you could be town with this instead of 3P.

By the way if Ctes confirms me town I'm ordering Kirby to roleblock you tonight.

UltimaterializerX posted...

People are calling it a GOOD play if youre scum.

@Kirby321 , come verify your action so ctes can pop off.

Those people are all morons.

ctesjbuvf posted...

Is that a bad thing?

It's completely disingenuous. By suddenly swapping to Chang being town, it serves only as a mechanism to force the shot onto me.

"I still think Chang is scum but I want to make sure. Makes sense. That's not what he said.

I actually only care because it came from Ulti suddenly going from calling Chang scum to calling Chang town which effectively forces me to be scum for the purposes of being shot.

It's disingenuous as hell.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

The thought has crossed my mind as well, but it would have to be sort of a "I'm going to NK infinity times and STILL win the game to assert dominance" type of play on your part, and not because you were being dumb at mafia on accident.

I am a chessmaster, not a fool.

I have never played that way as scum, and I never will.

Y'know what's funny though? The "Perfect Role Stealing Godfather intentionally no killing every day " nonsense applies to Kirby just as much as it applies to me, yet he always tunnels the argument onto me.

It's just how bad the argument and poorly thought the argument is.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

That's not the first time you've said this. How on earth is neighborizer similar to pineapple vendor?

They're.. Not remotely similar.

It's actually rather insulting that you think scum Blade would ever play so poorly.

Suddenly calling Chang town feels like blatantly attempting to bait Ctes into me though.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Im at a loss what happened on the night IGCD was saved, or whatever it was.

My theory is still that scum accidentally bus drove a save onto their kill. Chang's immediate reaction was to come out of nowhere to attack this theory.

Killing Death, killing Ben, and No Killing all seem like impossible decisions for the scumteam to have made.

Phone wtf was that.

In fact I think scum could r up winning the game if he does that.
Meow1000 posted...

And yes, I considered IGCD a high EV save on night 5. If one more kill were stopped his shot was practically free.

IGCD should've had the balls to shoot someone other than Death. Sacrificing himself to kill Kirby, kill me that night, and leaving innocent scanning Chang with just 1 more Ulti scan would've been his best EV play by a mile.

Shooting Death was so tame and generally unhelpful for scum I didn't think scum him would do it.

In fact I think scum could've ended up winning if he did that.

And yes, I considered IGCD a high EV save on night 5. If one more kill were stopped his shot was practically free.

IGCD should've had the balls to shoot someone other than Death. Sacrificing himself to kill Kirby, kill me that night, and leaving innocent scanning Chang with just 1 more Ulti scan would've been his best EV play by a mile.

Shooting Death was so tame and generally unhelpful for scum I didn't think scum him would do it.

I mean, aside from my one blip night 5 (Scum having two EKs is still wtf and I regret nothing, figured he might get shot before he could fire his own shot), all I've really done this entire game is make the objectively obvious save.

I saved Ulti 3 times despite not trusting he was town at all.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

yeah, hell if I know. That means either Kirby was the NK target, or I was the NK target, or there was another deliberate NoKill, but if you hadn't saved Kirby and he died then we would have had a false clear on chang based on our assumption that he was supposed to be Jailed.

Why do you think my save was locked onto Kirby

ctesjbuvf posted...

I suppose that's all actions in already.

No, we wait for Kirby to confirm what he did.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

I was roleblocked, apparently.

Tried to give Chang love, as usual.

Kirby blocked you what

UltimaterializerX posted...

This quote is why I scanned Kirby. Hes innocent. I 100% trust FD and Chang has basically told us that if hes scum, hes godfather. Ergo, only one player left to look at.

I actually thought you might scan Kirby so that checks out.

My save is pretty much locked onto him at this point.

Also I just remembered something. Sultan had an Indy role in that FOL place in one of the games she played there that automatically won the game no matter what if he made it to final 4 alive.

I'm not sure if there's precedence for that kind of role here, but it is something that would work alongside Ben.

Oh also. FD hammered just before I noticed this:

changmas posted...

4 nights with no kills and just a single stroke of coincidence, huh.

scum godfather lawyer? lmfao. embarrassing that you're town saying all this tbqh.

i'll leave it at that and see myself off to bed

Hello there perspective slip from someone who had no interest in anything but self-pres and theorybusting.

It's also not even an unreasonable assessment. Given the crazy shit we've seen scum flip, the last scum having 2-3 powers would fit.

So yeah I saved Kirby just in case Chang isn't and scum wanted to try to kill Kirby off just to stop him from confirming people. There CANNOT be 5 scum. 5 scum with 2 EKs would make this the most imbalanced game in B8 history.

But yeah scum really got screwed by Knightz having such a powerful role and throwing it away.

MZero posted...

As a Suns fan I'm not sure I agree with this

I'm still recovering from 2022

All the Suns did this year was roll over and die so

Shattered posted...

Seen a lot of Knicks fans say 'But injuries!' as if that isn't a by product of Thibs running his key players into the ground all season long

^

A 20 point blown lead (15 at halftime) in a Game 7 at home is hard to swallow. You'd much rather lose the way the Knicks just rolled over and died.

First a bad hockey game last night, an anti-climactic Championship Sunday this morning, and now this series has it's 4th consecutive blowout.

Bad day for sports.

Spoke too soon.

This day just refuses to be interesting.

So here's what's should happen if you flip town.

Kirby blocks Ulti, and I save Kirby. This prevents Ulti from using his vote block to win the game. I 100% get shot in this scenario.

5 players left. Town then lynches Ulti, and Kirby blocks Ctes. If there is a kill, you lynch Chang in final 3. If there is no kill, you lynch Ctes.

While Ulti/Chang still makes limited sense as a team, with Chang/FD/Kirby left, Kirby blocks Chang the next night. After the resulting no kill, town still wins.

So long as FD is town and Kirby doesn't punt, town cannot lose this game to anything but an Indy regardless of your flip.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

Ulti even started wavering on the "conviction" of his fucking scan, this is such a fucking trap and you're pulling such fucking stretches to justify his scan. You know it's a fucking lie. Don't make this mistake Blade.

Night 5 is the only night that has tenuous logic.

However, I believe what has been done has sufficiently proven that, barring some legitimately crazy gambitry, the team is Ulti/Ctes or Ctes/Chang on your Indy flip, and that the team is specifically Ulti/Ctes on your Town flip. In both cases, town only loses if Kirby punts.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

I have zero fucking faith in Kirby because his play has been fucking shit.

Oh I don't have faith in Kirby at all, but we get a literal confirmed scumteam of Ulti+Ctes if you flip town. I think he's still more likely to roleblock me than roleblock Ulti even in the situation where Ulti gets hard confirmed as scum, but if Kirby wants to throw it from there, I doubt Kirby would have allowed us to win the game in the first place.

IfGodCouldDie posted...

This is actually fucking horse shit. In not fucking scum and you guts are going to fucking hammer and lose. Good fucking job saving me Blade and then turning around and throwing the fucking game because you ended up buying Ulti's bullshit. This is fucking dumb, fuck this shit.

If you flip town and Kirby doesn't block Ulti the town deserves the loss. I would think by now that Kirby realizes you town flipping hard confirms Ulti scum, and scum can only win the game tonight if Ulti isn't blocked tonight. If he fails to roleblock a literal confirmed scum Ulti, then this town never had a chance anyway because Kirby was never giving it one.

Like the scumteam is 100% confirmed to be Ulti and Ctes if you flip town.

It is at halftime.

Luton now requires a 15 goal swing in the second half to defeat Forest.

THE DREAM

UltimaterializerX posted...

My biggest fear is Chang scanning innocent tonight. That creates endless problems.

And given his behavior today, he will scan innocent. I have zero doubts on this.

There are so many similarities between his play and her play as "self-confirming scum godfather" that I've continued to see the behavioral link since day 2. It's such an oddly specific role that I doubt many copies of it have ever existed.

That's why Kirby roleblocks him. There cannot be more than one scum remaining if IGCD flips scum. With one scum left, scum is forced to confirm a town if they fire a kill. Chang is the biggest wild card in the game by a lot. Kirby either locks him down or confirms him town.

Forceful_Dragon posted...

So I'm clear on what happens tonight if IGCD flips scum, but what about if he flips 3p?

Kirby just does whatever?

I have no ulterior motives with my pineapples so Chang is just going to keep collecting sperm regardless

If IGCD flips 3P it still means Ulti can only be scum if he shot at IGCD on both night 5 and night 6 or if he no killed on both nights. IGCD was protected both of those nights. For the record I 100% believe scum Ulti shoots at IGCD night 5, but I don't know about night 6.

The only possible scumteams on an IGCD Indy flip are Ulti/Ctes and Ctes/Chang. Ctes being roleblocked night 7 or Ulti being saved night 7 can explain the lack of a kill.

Ulti/Chang cannot explain the lack of a kill on night 7 when scum shouldn't be NKing on purpose unless they're insane.

Actually to sum it up trying to kill Ben would've been worse than a no kill. It's actively removing an easy lynch candidate from the game for no purpose that benefits scum.

Scumteams aren't in the habit of shooting at people no one in the entire game thinks is town on night 5/6 so.

I don't really care what Ben said.

Also Spurs already have a goal on Sheffield.

I'm really not even paying attention anymore. What a wreck.

I will not humoring any notion that scum shot Ben night 5. We don't know if he was BP that night, and he would've been an inexplicably terrible shot like Death would have been.

We also know he wasn't BP night 6 or he doesn't roll over to the scan because he would've been innocent scanning too.

City already wins.

Well, that was anti-climactic.

And this is also before even factoring in that one of the two claimed investigation roles in the game was far more likely to get multiple town mislynched (including itself) than a single scum.

And yeah like.

4+1+1 with those scum roles and two scum EKs in 19 with a town this weak would be pretty high on the list of most imbalanced games we've ever hosted here. 5+1 under those circumstances would probably be bordering on B8 imbalance history.

Under no circumstances are there 5 scum if IGCD is scum. Lea isn't that completely incapable of game balance.

Oh yeah I never did this did I

##Unvote

The entire train of logic completely collapses unless IGCD actually flips scum, though. An Indy flip would mean re-evaluating from the ground up. IGCD Indy+Ulti scum theoretically works only if Ulti shot IGCD on both nights 5 and 6 and IGCD got saved both times.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Finally we realize were both town.

And God lynched before ctes is correct. We have a confirmed data point (guilty scan) there. There is still a small chance ctes actually is town. You go with the guarantees first late game.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Finally we realize were both town.

And God lynched before ctes is correct. We have a confirmed data point (guilty scan) there. There is still a small chance ctes actually is town. You go with the guarantees first late game.

I found the only scenario I can reconcile with IGCD being scum (balance issues aside) and in that only scenario the likelihood of you being scum is almost non-existent unless you've been no killing like a madman. It also lacks a palpable endgame because you could still be dragged into final 3 with a lot of question marks.

And in this scenario scum either shot directly at you on a prayer last night, or Kirby hit Ctes with a roleblock. If the team is IGCD and Ctes, then no amount of bus driving would've ever been able to kill you the last two nights.

However, Chang's day so far has been hideous. Virtually no early reaction, then it really feels like I struck a nerve by mentioning the bus on night 5. I put him on a very specific "if he were scum" profile day 2 and his actions today not only feel like dejected scum, they still fit that specific profile.

I don't believe a 3P is necessary but the likelier Ctes situations are he's either the last scum who got roleblocked last night or he's 3P more or less claiming his own role.

Either way there can't be 5 scum in this game (the balance is already sus as fuck with 4), so Kirby's roleblock is extremely valuable if IGCD flips scum. Scum can't kill without confirming his target as town. An unblockable scum is certainly not a thing here, given the night results.

I have been continuing to run scenarios through my head but it is still the only one that does not involve scum deliberately no killing or a statistical virtual impossibility.

I refuse to humor the notion that scum shot Death with the intent to actually kill Death. I don't think they for some reason shot Ben who was BP at the time.

I don't think any scum in their right mind intentionally no killed night 5 with a living Cop/Doctor/JK.

I don't believe any scumteam ever intentionally no kills night 7 at 2/7 for any reason.

The misfired bus scenario explaining night 5 is the only thing I've got that I can find believable.

I think I'm finally done.

By the way this is why you don't leave me alive until day 8. I've just been distracted by tunneling Ulti because he's made some legitimately bonehead plays and keeps contradicting himself.

And yeah I'm way too wired to sleep. I feel like I found that one missing piece and everything has fallen into place.

And yeah if someone dies on a Chang roleblock then I think the game just ends on the Ctes lynch.

If Ctes flips scum and game isn't over then the remaining Indy is.. FD? Who else would even be left that could be Indy?

But yeah I've been right for so long that Ctes isn't town.

So yeah if that's all accurate.

Lynch IGCD and get a scum flip (6 players left)

Roleblock Chang and hope Ctes isn't Indy who wins the game on the resulting No Kill

Lynch Ctes (5 players left)

Roleblock Chang if Ctes was Indy (No Kill yet again)

Lynch Chang

I think that's as far as this game possibly needs to go.

All you have left is Ulti, FD, Kirby, and myself. FD isn't scum. Kirby isn't scum. Ulti is only scum if he's doing the greatest gambit of all time.

And Kirby STILL gets to roleblock that night if it's somehow still going.

But it won't be.

Because that one little theory plugged up the hole.

Assuming it's right.

But it probably is.