Current Events > Supreme Court ruling could lead to 19 more Republican House seats

(+) Yeah! (+)

Would you be shocked to learn that it is related to racial gerrymandering being allowed?

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/08/republicans-scotus-vra-00597212

Republicans could draw 19 more House seats after an upcoming Supreme Court ruling


Democratic voting rights groups are preparing for a nightmare scenario if the Supreme Court guts a key part of the landmark civil rights-era legislation, the Voting Rights Act a very real possibility this term.


Ahead of the courts Oct. 15 rehearing of Louisiana v. Callais a case that has major implications for the VRA two voting rights groups are sounding the alarm, warning that eliminating Section 2, a provision that prohibits racial gerrymandering when it dilutes minority voting power, would let Republicans redraw up to 19 House seats to favor the party and crush minority representation in Congress.


That calculation, made in a new report from Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter Fund shared exclusively with POLITICO, would all but guarantee Republican control of Congress.


While a ruling in time for next years midterms is unlikely, the organizations behind the report said that its not out of the question. Taken together, the groups identified 27 total seats that Republicans could redistrict in their favor ahead of the midterms 19 of which stem from Section 2 being overturned.


Doing so would clear the path for a one-party system where power serves the powerful and silences the people, Black Voters Matter Fund co-founder LaTosha Brown said in a statement.


Without Section 2, up to 30 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11 percent of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus could be drawn out of their seats, according to the report.


Republicans have long sought to dismantle this portion of the VRA, which generally prohibits race-based discrimination in voting laws and practices, arguing that it gives Democrats a partisan advantage. The Supreme Court has previously rebuffed these arguments, but voting rights advocates are worried the Louisiana case will change that.


Democrats could also find ways to use any changes to the VRA to their benefit. The party could redraw maps in heavily-blue areas with VRA protections to try and expand their margins, but there will be fewer opportunities.


In redistricting, the law is used to protect against racial gerrymandering that would dilute the voting power of racial and ethnic minority voters. States across the country routinely seek to comply with the law by drawing congressional districts where minority voters can elect their chosen candidates.


Many election lawyers expect a narrowing of the VRA, which could lead to sweeping changes to congressional delegations in the south. Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi could have all of their Democratic members ousted. Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Florida would likely each retain at least one Democratic member, but their delegations would get smaller, according to the report.


The report comes as Republicans have embarked on a nationwide map shuffle ahead of the midterms, a move thats being pushed aggressively by the White House and could help the GOP cling to its narrow majority. The mid-cycle redraws which are unusual but not unprecedented have already led to six more GOP-favored seats across two states.


Other Republican-controlled states are poised to jump into the redistricting race, a number that would surely swell if the VRAs protections are eliminated.


That prospect has left the groups who put out the report calling for Democrats to have an aggressive and immediate response to Republican redistricting efforts that are already underway.


Fair Fight Action CEO Lauren Groh-Wargo said in a statement that further tattering the VRA will do permanent damage. The only way to stop it is to play offense aggressively redraw maps wherever possible, focus relentlessly on taking back Congress, and be ready to use that power to pass real pro-democracy legislation and hold this corrupted Court accountable, she said.

So we know the way this ruling is going to go then.

They will not give up power once they have it

Because why not?

Chat are we cooked?

Fortunately gerrymandering based on political affiliation is legal so the Democrats can retaliate. This should be all any ambivalent Democrat needs to overcome their unease.

And anyone worrying that their is no way to reverse this can take comfort in knowing that this could make nationalizing elections seem more attractive.

BlueBoy675 posted...

Chat are we cooked?

We're cooked.

BlueBoy675 posted...

Chat are we cooked?

Nah the more they gerrymander the weaker each area is. If Trump keepsbeing this unpopular they may lose more support than they gain.

"If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy."

- David Frum, former speechwriter for George W. Bush

havean776 posted...

Nah the more they gerrymander the weaker each area is. If Trump keepsbeing this unpopular they may lose more support than they gain.

This is true.

All of their schemes are intended to increase their power beyond what they actually have.

But there arent any laws that will make there be more Republicans than actually exist.

Welre going to have to address Citizens United at the same time.

Civil War 2 happening sometime this century is looking more and more likely

divot1338 posted...

Fortunately gerrymandering based on political affiliation is legal so the Democrats can retaliate. This should be all any ambivalent Democrat needs to overcome their unease.

And anyone worrying that their is no way to reverse this can take comfort in knowing that this could make nationalizing elections seem more attractive.

Right. The Supreme Court has said partisan gerrymandering is fine. Republicans in red states have no problem with using it to their advantage. If Democrats in blue states decide they're going to play by a special set of rules that aren't the real rules then Republicans get a forever majority in the House.

BlueBoy675 posted...

Chat are we cooked?

We've been cooked since November. Hell, at this point, we're currently being cremated.

SpawnShadow posted...

We've been cooked since November.

2016 actually.

Republicans are going to start right after the ruling in June.

Maybe a state or two rushes in a last-minute map that they shouldn't even be able to do. And then the rest announce new maps for 2028.

Not a care in the world about how voters see that for 2026.

While Republicans publicly talk about how the public voted for them and want them in private they do everything to screw over voters to stay in power. Like they know reality doesn't match their words

divot1338 posted...

Fortunately gerrymandering based on political affiliation is legal so the Democrats can retaliate. This should be all any ambivalent Democrat needs to overcome their unease.

In order for Democrats to retaliate, they need uncontested control of the states in which they seek to retaliate (i.e. control of both the governor's mansion and all chambers of the state congress). Democrats have uncontested control in just 15 states (representing 36.5% of the population) versus 23 for Republicans (representing 41.5% of the population).

So no, even if they want to retaliate, the Democrats cannot fully counter the Republicans on this.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/195b7bb4.jpg

UnsteadyOwl posted...

Right. The Supreme Court has said partisan gerrymandering is fine. Republicans in red states have no problem with using it to their advantage. If Democrats in blue states decide they're going to play by a special set of rules that aren't the real rules then Republicans get a forever majority in the House.

It's not only that. Hasn't the GOP already stretched gerrymandering as much as they could to the point of accidently turning solid red seats purple? Blue states haven't really even touched gerrymandering.

Takuya_Lee posted...

It's not only that. Hasn't the GOP already stretched gerrymandering as much as they could to the point of accidently turning solid red seats purple? Blue states haven't really even touched gerrymandering.

That's what the voter suppression is for. Those seats ain't staying purple once the Red states' leaderships just throw out tons of blue ballots and/or prevent their opposition from even being allowed into the polling booths in the first place.

SpawnShadow posted...

That's what the voter suppression is for. Those seats ain't staying purple once the Red states' leaderships just throw out tons of blue ballots and/or prevent their opposition from even being allowed into the polling booths in the first place.

It's equally frustrating to know that your special ballot system isn't honoured or counted in the final tally. They are just tossed like the rest

Yeah, a second civil war or the union breaking up seems more and more likely by the day. The current system of American politics is untenable.

Anyways, the SCOTUS will vote in favor of the GOP slime and probably they'll do it in time for the midterms, make your peace with that.