Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 457: Unlimited Tariff Works

(+) Yeah! (+)

so thousands of people are getting fired

and companies are in a hiring freeze

and prices on everything are about to shoot through the roof

this is going to end poorly

What happened to DOGE's flowery language encouraging federal employees to take the deferred resignation, get paid, and find a more productive private sector job in the mean time?

It's almost like it was all bullshit and fucking up the entire government at once can cause ripples the fuck up a bunch of other stuff too.

Shattered posted...

She has a 6th interview with a company on Monday but concerned it could be a similar thing

Sidenote, when did all these companies start having such ridiculously lengthy interview processes.

6th interview is fucking nuts. At that point they should already be paying her for her time.

We officially hit bear market territory today.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

6th interview is fucking nuts. At that point they should already be paying her for her time.

Yeah, this also included an assessment and an assignment. It feels crazy

Anything past 3 interviews, including the recruiter screening, is just wasting everyone's time in my opinion.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

6th interview is fucking nuts. At that point they should already be paying her for her time.

Someday soon, companies will "interview" candidates by having them do a full day of unpaid work. Getting hired will take dozens (if not hundreds) of "interviews" held on consecutive business days. Complaining about this system will get you blacklisted from anything except part-time minimum wage jobs.

Xeybozn posted...

Someday soon, companies will "interview" candidates by having them do a full day of unpaid work.

spoilers that happens now

I get the feeling the stock market is gonna be a "slow" bleed over the next few weeks/months of losing hundreds of points because even now I feel like they're trying to cope by thinking this is some 346D negotiation tactic by Trump and the tariffs will come down significantly and that this is not, in fact, him doing exactly what he said he would do.

Heard bits and pieces of an investment call of my mom's (with the firm's guy trying to explain things, it wasn't 1-on-1 but like a call-in thing) and it was almost painful hearing the copium huffing (also think he predicted interest rate cuts from the Fed and then like an hour later the Fed was like 'Uh, because of the tariffs and the threat of stagflation from them no can do") and I suppose it could just be because he "has" to paint a rosy picture so people don't take their money and run but the market in general has been denying reality on this for the longest time. I don't think there'll be a COVID-esque "stock market craters so hard we trip the circuit breakers in three minutes" moment but just a long, slow bleedout as more days pass and the reality sinks in that "yeah this is really happening."

Thorn posted...

I get the feeling the stock market is gonna be a "slow" bleed over the next few weeks/months of losing hundreds of points

100% agree.

Buy the dip bros are still out there so they're gonna wanna trap as many as possible by faking a recovery over and over then pounding it down further each time.

Expect Monday the Stock Market surges way up only to be way down from this week by end of week

I mean buy the dip is a legit strategy in normal times.

Buying the dip is prob a good idea if you won't need the money for like 4+ years, but it's not gonna bottom out for a while

IRS Office of Civil Rights and Compliance (OCRC) being slashed by 75%

It's not one of the most prominent departments, and when you read the description it's not terribly surprising that they would cut it especially deeply:

The Office of Civil Rights and Compliance (OCRC) ensures compliance with civil rights laws and policies, investigates complaints of discrimination, and promotes equal opportunity and access to programs and services, ensuring a fair and inclusive environment.

Got an email as work was ending today saying that everyone else needs to send an updated resume to prepare for the cuts to come. Something about them using the resumes we submit as part of their evaluation when deciding who makes the cut, and that if we didn't provide one they would use our work history with the IRS? It doesn't make much sense to me since I haven't worked anywhere else in the past 8~ years and they have my resume from 8 years ago if they care about what I did before.

I was under the impression that we would receive a metric that combines our length of service with our performance evaluations, so I fail to see how a new resume could provide anything they don't already have.

.

If we're going to give them the credit of intellect or cunning, then I would say that then publicizing the depth of one of the deepest cuts is past of a plot to scare more people into taking a voluntary separation when they make it available again. But that would be a remarkably shrewd and competent move from them which feels unlikely.

they do not care about how good of an employee you were slash are

my best friend got fired from FDA this week after having all 5s on his performance reviews and getting two promotions in the past three years

When will Trumps Read my lips, no new taxes moment happen?

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Ugh.

That was a different president on the campaign trail, not the goddamn erzhzhbf JUST STOP DERAILING. Go sit in the corner.

LordoftheMorons posted...

I think its more that some unions are very pro-tariff (even though Trumps tariffs are almost assuredly going to be *bad* for their members).

Trumpist economics is based on socialist protectionism so it makes sense. What dumb is why Democrats picked this part of socialism (easily one of the worst parts of it) to be okay with

Lopen posted...

I mean yes the tariffs will be bad but the stock market on a micro level has no basis in reality and is 95% manipulation at any given point

So bitcoin is equal to stocks

foolm0r0n posted...

So bitcoin is equal to stocks

Bitcoin is basically a penny stock (in terms of manipulation and price stability) yes.

Thorn posted...

also think he predicted interest rate cuts from the Fed and then like an hour later the Fed was like 'Uh, because of the tariffs and the threat of stagflation from them no can do"

My finance people said similar, they predict a covid style crash then dropped rates which will cause a temporary boom. If there's any logic to it, it's certainly that Trump wants to recreate that part of his 1st term since he legitimately believed it was a great economy.

The flaw is, like you said, the fed is not on board. We finally freed ourselves from the spiral of low rates.

Stocks have a use case in terms of representing fractional ownership of the company. The only issue with that is that except for the elite few it is near impossible to own enough of a given stock for it to functionally matter. So rather than a functional share of ownership you own the perceived value of that share of ownership which is that part that is very susceptible to being based on perceptions rather than reality.

But there is still enough there that people who are willing to do the research and actually look at the health of the underlying business can do very well by exploiting the gap between perceived values and the "actual" value as determined by more rigorous analysis.

But then that analysis gets publicized and everyone else flocks to make moves based on it which can shift the scales too far in the wrong direction :shrug:. So much future expectation gets baked into valuations that it seems really hard to trade based on real-time information.

dividends are also real but

Stocks have value at a macro level-- I'm specifically talking day to day and week to week movement. Like claims that "the Tariffs dropped the S&P 10%" is just like... not really understanding how the stock market works. The stock market tanked because market manipulators wanted to promote fear currently. Keep in mind it's also the case that the market was likely overbought via use of leverage so it's less that bad news is going to revert to back to where it was and rather be the catalyst to push the whole market back to where it should be after years of being overbought (ie it goes down more when it corrects, not bounces)

Long term stocks and indexes will eventually go to what their value should be because the company itself has tools to combat the manipulation in terms of dividends, share buyback, etc, and if the company doesn't actually go out of business eventually positions will need to be closed because enough legitimate positions will enter and exit that it'll naturally pull towards the proper valuation. But we're talking like decades.

In some sense Bitcoin does have macro value too but it's speculative to the level where it's a penny stock functionally because it's all theory as to whether the use case actually has practical application or it's just hype. You can make a lot of money on penny stocks too so it's not like shade towards bitcoin just a realistic representation of what's actually bought.

redrocket posted...

How did you try and send it?

direct transfer

I THINK we had the same issue last year but I am squinting at any such communication from this government, especially when my return was accepted

AriaOfBolo posted...

direct transfer

Check with your bank.

I must have skimmed past that post Aria or I'd have asked you earlier. Does the letter you have include a notice number on the top right of the first page? It would typically begin with "LTR" or "CP".

And did your tax payment get scheduled by your preparation software or did you go to the irs.gov site and submit it yourself?

Most tax prep software is just awful and prone to issues so I would always recommend telling your software "I'm going to make the payment myself" or whatever the option is for NOT scheduling a payment through them. Doing shit through the preparation software is just adding more possible points of failure and makes it harder for us to diagnose the problem when something goes wrong.

I've got a letter number and that's it! (well, and an ACH)

makes sense, thank you both

Lopen posted...

Stocks have value at a macro level-- I'm specifically talking day to day and week to week movement. Like claims that "the Tariffs dropped the S&P 10%" is just like... not really understanding how the stock market works. The stock market tanked because market manipulators wanted to promote fear currently. Keep in mind it's also the case that the market was likely overbought via use of leverage so it's less that bad news is going to revert to back to where it was and rather be the catalyst to push the whole market back to where it should be after years of being overbought (ie it goes down more when it corrects, not bounces)

Reminds me of when a very similar 5% drop happened a year ago due to JPY carry trades, you were adamant it was NOT manipulation because it happened in 1 days instead of over a long period of time. But now a sharp drop in 1 day makes you convinced it is manipulation.

Lopen posted...

In some sense Bitcoin does have macro value too but it's speculative to the level where it's a penny stock functionally because it's all theory as to whether the use case actually has practical application or it's just hype. You can make a lot of money on penny stocks too so it's not like shade towards bitcoin just a realistic representation of what's actually bought.

Penny stocks are the same as trillion dollar stocks. The only difference is market cap.

Oh the Switch is being made in Vietnam. That explains why they are desperate enough to cancel orders.

The entire world agreed for Vietnam to be the new hub of cheap manufacturing. It's an incredible transformation not even 50 years after its communist warmonger era. The US benefited so much from losing that war.

But now it represents everything Trump want to destroy. Losing that war was Trump's biggest shame (the bone spurs thing isn't a big deal though) and he demands to reverse that history.

This is a huge reason why old people need to be banned from politics. They are still fighting wars from 60 years ago that everyone has moved on from, because it was part of their formative years.

Grassley is basically old enough to be Trumps dad

People call everything market manipulation. Maybe you define that really broadly, but the more important question is, what does your model predict?

100k plus at the protest in NYC today. Good to see.

Chapel Hill, NCs is nowhere near the size, obviously, but it was fairly packed.

foolm0r0n posted...

It's an incredible transformation not even 50 years after its communist warmonger era.

Are we calling intervening to stop a genocide in Cambodia communist warmongering now

LightningStrikes posted...

Are we calling intervening to stop a genocide in Cambodia communist warmongering now

Duh?

I was in Manhattan today, I think around the protest areas, but didn't know about it so I didn't see anything. Saw people with signs on the train tho

foolm0r0n posted...

I was in Manhattan today, I think around the protest areas, but didn't know about it so I didn't see anything. Saw people with signs on the train tho

Really? Huh. It filled 5th Ave from 42nd St to Madison Park (supposedly).

foolm0r0n posted...

Reminds me of when a very similar 5% drop happened a year ago due to JPY carry trades, you were adamant it was NOT manipulation because it happened in 1 days instead of over a long period of time. But now a sharp drop in 1 day makes you convinced it is manipulation.

Uhhh I never said it wasn't manipulation because of that. I said it wasn't manipulation because it didn't fit a narrative that was getting publicity. Market manipulation is done in response to news to fool people into thinking the news affects stocks and it's not just money games controlling everything.

HeroicCrono posted...

People call everything market manipulation. Maybe you define that really broadly, but the more important question is, what does your model predict?

That SPY drops to like $300 over the next year or two but does so in a slow bleed out with a bunch of panic shit like this where it drops 10% in two days and rebounds to catch as many dip buyers as possible over and over.

The point is less that the tariffs aren't bad for stocks (they are) but that the day to day price movement generally isn't due to actual news-- the news is just a front to drive the prices where they want. The prices are quite fake right now already due to gross overleveraging. Most of the gross market cap weirdness is in AI stocks which the media is hyping to high heaven-- coincidence? Not really. Basically .com bubble 2.0 on the horizon.

SaveEstelle posted...

Really? Huh. It filled 5th Ave from 42nd St to Madison Park (supposedly).

I was around Bryant Park but I guess on the wrong side of it

Lopen posted...

Uhhh I never said it wasn't manipulation because of that. I said it wasn't manipulation because it didn't fit a narrative that was getting publicity. Market manipulation is done in response to news to fool people into thinking the news affects stocks and it's not just money games controlling everything.

I mean the only reason you knew about it was because of the carry trade narrative that was going around wallstreetbets and such. No normal people thought about it very much.

This crash and the tariffs in general are unavoidable if you're a participant of the US economy. No narrative required (though obviously there are many narratives kicking off)

I wouldn't say day to day price movement is based on actual "news" per se, but prices are always "fake" and always grossly overleveraged because that's how we get growth under capitalism and that's what pretty much everyone with capital (and everyone without who actually wants to eat food) wants. The stock market is the real-life equivalent of CHIM and always has been in that it's a feedback loop of material effect, and metaphysical belief in capital. When one of those fails or surges, the other pretty much inevitably does the same. I've no doubt that plenty of rich people have shorts and unsustainable investments and are jumping while they can, but you can't separate the economics from the politics just by saying "they" want the stock market to move in a particular way.

On a somewhat related note, my US-based paycheck has lost roughly 10% of its take home value in the UK since I started this job just over two months ago. I get paid weekly through PayPal and the dollar is haemorrhaging 1% of its value to the pound almost every week when exchanging. I can't stand a lot of crypto culture on principle, but I'm genuinely considering putting my earnings past a certain threshold through them in some form, once I figure out how to not potentially be an idiot and get my ass cooked for tax evasion. I'm already losing a decent chunk on PayPal exchange rate commission as is.

foolm0r0n posted...

was going around wallstreetbets and such

It wasn't posted on wallstreetbets until after it happened p sure. I knew beforehand because debt leverage interests me. I don't really go to wallstreetbets except to see reactions to movement after it happens. They basically never call anything at a time you can make any money off of it.

DRP 2.0 is on the table for Treasury now as well. Saw my email earlier while working some overtime and I was gonna type it out, but someone else on reddit already did:

https://www.reddit.com/r/fednews/comments/1jsgbri/drp_20_for_irs_offered_today/

Pretty much exactly like you'd expect. Nobody in my unit took DRP when it was offered the first time but I have the impression that several will jump on it this week. If enough take the DRP 2.0 or the VERA then my chances improve.

Lopen posted...

That SPY drops to like $300 over the next year or two but does so in a slow bleed out with a bunch of panic shit like this where it drops 10% in two days and rebounds to catch as many dip buyers as possible over and over.

The point is less that the tariffs aren't bad for stocks (they are) but that the day to day price movement generally isn't due to actual news-- the news is just a front to drive the prices where they want. The prices are quite fake right now already due to gross overleveraging. Most of the gross market cap weirdness is in AI stocks which the media is hyping to high heaven-- coincidence? Not really. Basically .com bubble 2.0 on the horizon.

News and market manipulation are both things people attribute market movements to after the fact. If your point is that news doesn't drive price movements that much, sure, but I'm not sure why you need market manipulation to explain that.

HeroicCrono posted...

If your point is that news doesn't drive price movements that much, sure, but I'm not sure why you need market manipulation to explain that.

My point is it does but there's no consistency in how it does. It used to always be "buy the rumor sell the (good) news" but eventually people got wise to it so now it's basically random.

So you need to be looking at the news catalysts and expecting it to move, but also where the item is valued relative to what it should be, how long it has been so, and how many people are expecting the move. It's only news as a front, but they don't want people actually making money on news.

This whole tangent was because "Trump tariffs are crashing the stock market" my point is the stock market was chomping at the bit to be crashed and any remotely negative news catalyst would have worked similarly.

Tbf thats not wrong, given all the federal funding that the Biden Administration gave to bolster the pre-pandemic economy. Considering Obamas administration was criticised for not doing enough to help the economy after the Great Recession (which is what led Bernie Sanders to challenge Hillary Clinton in the first place), its understandable that Biden would throw caution to the wind entirely.

I think the Republicans have been so into attributing market drops to Democrats that it feels natural to do the same to them. It's not a good indicator. But for the tariffs, you know there are going to be problems even without looking at the stock market.

Absolutely

I'm not aiming to downplay the actual negative significance of tariffs on real economy just expressing general annoyance about people yelling about the stock market like it's remotely based on anything in reality and isn't just a casino that's loosely based on a true story.

Also fwiw the last time a POTUS had a nonconsecutive second term the economy was apparently in recession the whole time because of his and his second predecessors policies.