Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 441: Containing Politics Whether it Likes it or Not

(+) Yeah! (+)

Walz sure likes to give it to Trump:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1852405825643655251

Up to 18 million views for the Cheney Execution clip on that one tweet alone. Every network but Fox covering it extensively.

Great stuff to have to deal with 4 days out, I'm sure!

it was always going to be trump that destroyed trump, and good lord is it funny to watch

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Up to 18 million views for the Cheney Execution clip on that one tweet alone. Every network but Fox covering it extensively.

Great stuff to have to deal with 4 days out, I'm sure!

America when the guy who has always campaigned on destroying his enemies talks about destroying his enemies: *shocked Pikachu face*

I never thought the leopards would eat Liz Cheneys face!

Yeah I don't get it but if this is something that news will actually talk about well I'll take it.

Vance for the first time ever refused to take question after his rally speech this morning lol. Couldn't imagine why.

"but guys, clearly what Donald Trump MEANT was that Liz Cheney wouldn't be so pro-war if she was the one going to war. He just mentioned her having 9 barrels firing at her as colorful imagery to make his point! As usual the main stream media is just taking him out of context!"

-Literally republicans

.

The full quote:

"She's a radical war-hawk. Lets put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her, okay, let's see how she feels about it, y'know when the guns are trained on her face. Y'know they're all war-hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying oh gee will lets send ten thousand troops right into the mouth of the enemy. But she's a stupid person and I used to have, I'd have meetings with a lot of people and she always wanted to go to war with people".

So yeah, if you're squinting you can see that he was TRYING to make a point about people being less keen on war when they're the ones in the middle of it, but he's so damn stupid that he's unable to do it without essentially describing her being executed in a firing squad.

He'd never admit it publicly (for now), but I wonder if, in these moments, Vance faces any sort of existential dread that he's the dead weight of the ticket.

kevwaffles posted...

He'd never admit it publicly (for now), but I wonder if, in these moments, Vance faces any sort of existential dread that he's the dead weight of the ticket.

I think he's more worried how Daddy Thiel will react if they lose. Trump will absolutely blame him. His supporters might even call to Hang JD Vance for not refusing to certify the election. (Nevermind that he isn't the one to certify the election. Since when have facts mattered to MAGA?)

Honestly "let's send pro-war politicians to war" is a worst-person-you-know-just-made-a-great-point situation but Trump would absolutely not follow through with that even if it was what he meant.

Oh ho

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/video/trump-debt-growing-dan-alexander-ebof-digvid

he has a buffet of people to blame when he loses

vance, musk, hinchcliffe, mark robinson if he loses nc, laura loomer, the heritage foundation

just to name a few

Don't forget the Blacks and the Jews!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/1/10c2f18f.jpg

So what are the voting trends over time supposed to be like on election day? Last time Republicans got an early 'lead' because mail-in voters were mostly Dem, but I've heard that's different this time?

ivysnow posted...

he has a buffet of people to blame when he loses

vance, musk, hinchcliffe, mark robinson if he loses nc, laura loomer, the heritage foundation

just to name a few

It was all Creepy JDs fault, not me, not me. I ran the best campaign folks, the best, but they came and they told me oh Mr Trump youre going to win anyway you should pick JD Vance and he came along and he- he blew it. I should have left him to sit at home on the couch instead and you know what they say about him and couches I bet hed like that, I bet hed like that.

This is absolutely what Trump would say if he would actually concede which will never happen

KamikazePotato posted...

So what are the voting trends over time supposed to be like on election day? Last time Republicans got an early 'lead' because mail-in voters were mostly Dem, but I've heard that's different this time?

We don't know! Patterns are going to be all over the place on a state by state basis. Some states will have every single early vote counted before the polls close. Some states can't even start counting early votes until after the polls close.

Last time was also during COVID so trends there probably can't be trusted.

I think the old conventional wisdom was early in-person tended to lean R while mail-in leaned D but who even knows now. I think Rs probably still will show "early" leads if only because the big Dem strongholds are places where a lot of people live - and therefore the places that take longer to fully count but yeah idk.

And of course there's weird/dumb state-by-state differences on how/when counting is done.

https://bsky.app/profile/zachbussey.bsky.social/post/3l7vi3uctkp2r

:')

I'm not saying it's off topic, but Twitch rules are too stupid even for this topic.

They held out for as long as they could, but it looks like the Trump surrogates couldn't keep plugging their ears anymore.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/a6829618.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/07dcac0a.jpg

UshiromiyaEva posted...

They held out for as long as they could, but it looks like the Trump surrogates couldn't keep plugging their ears anymore.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/a/a6829618.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/07dcac0a.jpg

"Too many people weren't watching us."

AriaOfBolo posted...

https://bsky.app/profile/zachbussey.bsky.social/post/3l7vi3uctkp2r

:')

This seems.... awful.

I'd understand a tag if it was merely election shit or something, but "social political subjects like gender, race, sex, religion" just makes it seem like it's saying "Tag yourself if you're not cis".

...And unless Twitch has actually stamped out those hate raids, all this does is give those groups a clearer target for LGBTQ+ folks who don't want that kind of attention.

Also the whole "People's existence being inherently political" thing.

Dark_Young_Link posted...

Also the whole "People's existence being inherently political" thing.

Sounds eerily similar to what the early Fandom guidelines were for politics on GameFAQs!

Forceful_Dragon posted...

if you're squinting

No, it's incredibly obvious that he meant putting her in war in this case. It's fine to take it as a win for the media to be using to your advantage though. Your team uses spin and misinformation to try to win elections too.

I think it would make more sense to emphasize the many times he's explicitly called for the deaths of his enemies at the hands of his supports or national guard, and put into motions plans to execute on it. Or focus on the Epstein recordings for that matter. But I'm def not the target of 24 hour news cycle.

KamikazePotato posted...

Sounds eerily similar to what the early Fandom guidelines were for politics on GameFAQs!

my thoughts on amazon are indeed pretty similar to my thoughts on fandom

please extrapolate them for yourselves, I can't cuss on this internet

Dark_Young_Link posted...

just makes it seem like it's saying "Tag yourself if you're not cis".

yep!

Dark_Young_Link posted...

..And unless Twitch has actually stamped out those hate raids,

lol!

Arizona AG investigating whether to treat Trump's comment as a death threat.

https://twitter.com/MSNBC/status/1852425525999857819?t=KYTDCq-Bd_gWdRq_dknm0w&s=19

Elon lost his attempt to move his voter fraud case to Federal, going straight to PA court.

https://t.co/K9JbCbpveQ

Any idea on what time we'll get the first results on Tuesday?
I'd like to follow the news and results, but I don't want to get up too early and only see speculation (I'm Europe based).

I'd say around 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT.

at 8:01pm when 0.001% of east coast polls will be reporting in, Trump with a 400 vote lead will claim victory.

Bospsychopaat posted...

Any idea on what time we'll get the first results on Tuesday?
I'd like to follow the news and results, but I don't want to get up too early and only see speculation (I'm Europe based).

Here is a link to a map showing poll closing times state by state in Eastern Standard Time (GMT-5). It looks like the US and EU switch from daylight savings time to standard time one week apart this year but Election Day will be on standard time in both.

https://www.270towin.com/poll-closing-times

Typically, once polls close, in states where it's going to be a landslide, they will call it based on the exit polls.

I imagine Trump will declare himself the winner around noon eastern.

I mean they'll call things like South Carolina and Maryland a couple minutes after the polls close. Stuff like Virginia within the hour. Those don't mean anything though lol.

Unless it's a landslide, you're best bet is rongonto bed early, unless you were planning to stay up until 3 or 4 AM at least. I severely doubt we get the 4 day wait like last time.

Bospsychopaat posted...

Any idea on what time we'll get the first results on Tuesday?
I'd like to follow the news and results, but I don't want to get up too early and only see speculation (I'm Europe based).

First poll closings in the country are 6 PM ET (parts of Indiana and Kentucky.) After that it's mostly another bunch of poll closings every hour for 7 hours.

Significant-ish ones (all times Eastern):

6 PM - Parts of Indiana and Kentucky
7 PM - GA, VA, most of Florida
7:30 - NC, OH
8 PM - First really big chunk: PA, nearly all of MI, NH, ME
8:30 - Arkansas by itself
9 PM - Another big chunk - NY, WI, AZ, CO, MN
10 PM - NV, MT
11 PM - West Coast (CA/OR/WA) Lower 48 is done at this point.
Midnight - HI, most of Alaska
1 AM - Rest of Alaska

People will start to try and read tea leaves out of those 6 PM closings (but because it's only parts of those states and not the entirety I don't think they can/will actually call them at that point). If things are clearly leaning one way (like massive polling error) or the other we might know with that 7 PM drop, but I'd say it's that 8 PM one that will start to tell the story - even if only "really is that close" or "polls were wrong (in either direction)".

Thing is, if it's as close as it's been polling you wouldn't even really expect it to be called on Tuesday night or even Wednesday morning. That would only happen if one or the other appears to be running away with it. Maybe you get some calls (of close swing states) in the 1 AM-3 AM area but poll workers do eventually have to call it a day and sleep.

And I guess technically there's that small town in NH that has like a dozen voting eligible people that traditionally votes right at midnight and it immediately reports out so first results would "technically" be them I think.

Virginia is unlikely to be called within an hour because they don't like calling it for the Democrat while the Republican has a lead in the actual votes counted, and the Republican almost always holds a lead in Virginia until like 85%+ of precincts are counted because the last precincts to be counted are heavily Democratic and much larger than average by population. If you see Trump up 65/35 early on in Virginia, don't be alarmed.

The above is all with the caveat that these trends could change due to vote counting procedures changing, such as if Northern Virginia figures out how to count votes faster.

This to me sounds like we should get some sleep unless something wild happens.

Last time Virginia was called at 7:30.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Republicans have been yelling about how Towns turnout is incredibly high at like 93% as a sign of their inevitable GA victory.

....It has a population of 12k and had the same turnout last time. They see this chart with all the red at the top, and get the exact same gut reaction as when people show them voting maps of the Midwest that are mostly red because it's fucking cows and trees.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/c907987d.jpg

In fact, all of the half dozen high turnout Republican bastion in GA they have been hyping up at the top of that chart total up to less than 50k votes, and had the same turnout before. Literally the first llittle blue lines overtake the full red chunk.

The party just seems completely unable to understand vote cannibilization because of how 2020 went, they think early votes means new votes, when pretty much all the data we have so far in states that record it indicates that almost all of the Republican early votes are from prior voters.

Ya, people don't understand how little georgia is besides atlanta. Atlanta is also one of the largest metros in the country, I believe top 5 or 6.

Final Selzer Iowa poll releasing 7PM eastern tomorrow.

We can't assume anything regardless of what the poll reads, even though it's considered one of the most important polls of the election cycle, but everyone is going to be talking about it regardless so vibes will be off the charts if it's anything below +5 Trump or above +8 Trump.

Last poll from them was only +4 Trump, but it shifted further in his favor for the final drop in 2020 to near perfect accuracy.

I think Virginia was a little better about it in 2022 and 2023, but yeah I remember getting a sinking feeling in 2020 when I saw Virginia going hard for Trump at first, even with several precincts reporting in much bluer counties. It was just that the reddest precincts in those specific counties reported almost instantly and the bluer ones took forever.

Also, I don't like mentioning personal anecdotes with much specificity, but I'm pretty confident now of someone in my family fully turning away from Trump now. Unfortunately I see them still voting for Cao and Anderson (Cao won't matter much, Kaine will easily win, but Anderson vs. Vindman is pretty important), but at the very least they can't reconcile Trump's comments on Cheney, along with the "protect women whether they like it or not" remark. They are also horrified by the promise of putting RFK Jr. in charge of public health.

We won't until until after the election just how much damage Trump has done to himself in the suburbs with both his comments and those whom surround him, regardless of whether he wins or loses. There is absolute zero doubt he's bleeding hard there nationwide. Main question is how much that effects the downballot.

I wonder if the Democrats can ever break through in rural areas. After a decade of increasing urban/rural political divides worldwide that seems like it might be reversing in many places.

Bospsychopaat posted...

Any idea on what time we'll get the first results on Tuesday?
I'd like to follow the news and results, but I don't want to get up too early and only see speculation (I'm Europe based).

https://youtube.com/shorts/Owh3I-eu3GE?si=tfrfkFjUPDhqUs-c

AriaOfBolo posted...

https://youtube.com/shorts/Owh3I-eu3GE?si=tfrfkFjUPDhqUs-c

Frankly I'm ecstatic that almost no circumstances where Nevada matters this cycle exist, because dear fucking Lord it felt like I was losing my mind.

I mean it didn't matter last time either in the end, but it COULD have.

LightningStrikes posted...

I wonder if the Democrats can ever break through in rural areas.

They will be the new conservative party so it will just happen naturally

Also yeah you're not getting a conclusive election result on the night of, or even the day after. Just go to sleep.

LightningStrikes posted...

I wonder if the Democrats can ever break through in rural areas. After a decade of increasing urban/rural political divides worldwide that seems like it might be reversing in many places.

I feel like the Dems have given up on it entirely. Similarly, the Republicans (with the exception of Donald Trump) have all but given up on cities. American politics runs almost entirely through the suburbs.

Yeah unless it's a complete blowout, I'm not expecting PA to complete its tally until eod Wednesday at the earliest

And a blowout is possible! Nate Cohn just released an article talking about how terrified Pollsters are of underestimating Trump, both for there credibility or even potentially for their livelihood, after underestimating him in the last elections. The statement he made that stood out more than any other: If they got a response back from PA that resulted in Harris +7, they simply wouldn't even release the poll. That one of the biggest pollsters in the nation would admit that is pretty wild.