Current Events > Historian Who Predicted 9 of 10 Election Results Tells Biden Not to Give Up

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[deleted] 06/30/24 11:03:07 AM #4:	[deleted] <cite>[deleted] posted [p:981089030] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>[deleted]</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Humble_Novice 06/30/24 1:31:15 PM #1:	https://www.yahoo.com/news/historian-predicted-9-last-10-134450729.html WASHINGTON Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election. Lichtman, a professor at American University, rejected the growing chorus of political pundits and Democratic activists who have called on Biden, 81, to bow out of the presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last week against former President Donald Trump. The pivotal moment brought fresh questions about Bidens age and ability to serve a second term. Its a huge mistake. They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not, Lichtman said during an interview with CNN of calls to replace Biden. This is all foolhardy nonsense. Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or keys. The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or keys, to lose the White House. The keys range from whether a candidate is an incumbent president to the state of the economy and the presence of third-party hopefuls. Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performances and concerns over his age. When pressed about whether the questions surrounding Bidens age and mental acuity are fundamentally different than his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down. Debate performances can be overcome, he said. At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness. Lichtman has not made his final prediction for who will win the 2024 presidential election. <cite>Humble_Novice posted [p:981088874] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>https://www.yahoo.com/news/historian-predicted-9-last-10-134450729.html<quote>WASHINGTON Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly forecast the results of nine out of the 10 most recent presidential elections argued on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could cost Democrats the 2024 election.Lichtman, a professor at American University, rejected the growing chorus of political pundits and Democratic activists who have called on Biden, 81, to bow out of the presidential race after his disastrous debate performance last week against former President Donald Trump. The pivotal moment brought fresh questions about Bidens age and ability to serve a second term.Its a huge mistake. They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not, Lichtman said during an interview with CNN of calls to replace Biden. This is all foolhardy nonsense.Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half century, except for the race in 2000, using a series of 13 historical factors or keys.The system includes four factors based on politics, seven on performance, and two on candidate personality. Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those actors, or keys, to lose the White House.The keys range from whether a candidate is an incumbent president to the state of the economy and the presence of third-party hopefuls.Debate performance, however, is not one of the factors that determines the outcome of an election, he argued. Lichtman pointed to historical examples, including the 1984 election in which former President Ronald Reagan swept 49 states despite poor debate performances and concerns over his age.When pressed about whether the questions surrounding Bidens age and mental acuity are fundamentally different than his metrics as president, Lichtman doubled down.Debate performances can be overcome, he said. At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness.Lichtman has not made his final prediction for who will win the 2024 presidential election.</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ItsNotA2Mer 06/30/24 1:38:47 PM #2:	Biden isn't giving up. --- It is impossible to live in the past, difficult to live in the present, and a waste to live in the future. (He/Him). <cite>ItsNotA2Mer posted [p:981089013] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Biden isn't giving up. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Persona 06/30/24 1:39:25 PM #3:	which was the one he missed vitally important --- https://youtu.be/8S99iQH2Rvg?si=lYFVHxVW2Zj1Ah0p <cite>Persona posted [p:981089022] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>which was the one he missedvitally important </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BunkerBoy 06/30/24 1:40:39 PM #5:	Persona posted... which was the one he missed vitally important Bush v Gore <cite>BunkerBoy posted [p:981089041] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Persona posted... </cite><quote>which was the one he missedvitally important</quote>Bush v Gore </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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PowerMan5000000 06/30/24 1:42:52 PM #7:	So he predicted 2016? --- Have I now become your enemy by telling you the truth? Galatians 4:16 <cite>PowerMan5000000 posted [p:981089071] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>So he predicted 2016? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
HighSeraph 06/30/24 1:43:42 PM #8:	BunkerBoy posted... Bush v Gore Tbf that one involved scotus nonsense --- She/Her She rings like a bell through the night <cite>HighSeraph posted [p:981089084] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>BunkerBoy posted... </cite><quote>Bush v Gore</quote>Tbf that one involved scotus nonsense </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BunkerBoy 06/30/24 1:45:04 PM #9:	PowerMan5000000 posted... So he predicted 2016? Yeah https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House <cite>BunkerBoy posted [p:981089099] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>PowerMan5000000 posted... </cite><quote>So he predicted 2016?</quote>Yeah https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SAlYAN 06/30/24 1:45:42 PM #10:	Persona posted... which was the one he missed vitally important Bush/Gore --- Doesn't take a lot of brains to be a good fighter. <cite>SAlYAN posted [p:981089109] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Persona posted... </cite><quote>which was the one he missedvitally important</quote>Bush/Gore </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Anteaterking 06/30/24 1:47:52 PM #11:	Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly when he predicted it for Donald Trump, he released a book and paper ahead of the election in 2016 which explicitly stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote;[27][28][29][1][2][3] Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but Trump won the Electoral College and was elected president. Lichtman switched to predicting the election winner after 2016. --- http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b136/Anteaterking/scan00021.jpg <cite>Anteaterking posted [p:981089145] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly when he predicted it for Donald Trump, he released a book and paper ahead of the election in 2016 which explicitly stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote;[27][28][29][1][2][3] Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but Trump won the Electoral College and was elected president. Lichtman switched to predicting the election winner after 2016. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Westernwolf4 06/30/24 2:03:06 PM #12:	I hate to contradict the analysis of a professor from my Alma mater, but his take seems kind of silly to me. Questions about the age of this candidate are not new-people have been talking about this since before Biden was elected to a first term. It is not the norm for people to be voting for a candidate who will be closer to 90 than 80 when his term is over. It is not normal for that person to be running against a twice impeached felon who states he wants to be a dictator on the first day. And I have been a politics junkie for four decades-Bidens debate performance was certainly not normal. It may be the worst I have ever seen. To be clear: I think Biden has done a good job as President. I like him, and I will vote for him (or anyone) over Trump. But to act like the Democrats are just suddenly and unreasonably concerned is a really dumb take. Anyone with any political acumen at all knew Bidens candidacy would be in trouble if he came out of the debate looking like a feeble old man, and that is exactly what happened. I am voting blue always. Everyone should. The GOP is nothing more than an engine for bad faith and corruption. But for this professor to act like the Democrats are unreasonably concerned is incredibly naive at best. --- An opinion does not turn into a fact simply because the person holding it feels strongly about it. <cite>Westernwolf4 posted [p:981089397] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>I hate to contradict the analysis of a professor from my Alma mater, but his take seems kind of silly to me. Questions about the age of this candidate are not new-people have been talking about this since before Biden was elected to a first term. It is not the norm for people to be voting for a candidate who will be closer to 90 than 80 when his term is over. It is not normal for that person to be running against a twice impeached felon who states he wants to be a dictator on the first day. And I have been a politics junkie for four decades-Bidens debate performance was certainly not normal. It may be the worst I have ever seen.To be clear: I think Biden has done a good job as President. I like him, and I will vote for him (or anyone) over Trump. But to act like the Democrats are just suddenly and unreasonably concerned is a really dumb take. Anyone with any political acumen at all knew Bidens candidacy would be in trouble if he came out of the debate looking like a feeble old man, and that is exactly what happened.I am voting blue always. Everyone should. The GOP is nothing more than an engine for bad faith and corruption. But for this professor to act like the Democrats are unreasonably concerned is incredibly naive at best. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Gritty 06/30/24 2:08:45 PM #14:	Persona posted... which was the one he missed vitally important Its not, but jack yourself off a little bit more <cite>Gritty posted [p:981089492] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Persona posted... </cite><quote>which was the one he missedvitally important</quote>Its not, but jack yourself off a little bit more</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
saspa 06/30/24 2:19:46 PM #15:	Weird. When I saw that 9 out of ten figure I immediately thought Gore vs Bush. Turns out that was the one. Wonder why. Could have been the whole recount thing. --- http://i.imgur.com/0UFI0T9.jpg <cite>saspa posted [p:981089684] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Weird. When I saw that 9 out of ten figure I immediately thought Gore vs Bush. Turns out that was the one. Wonder why. Could have been the whole recount thing. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mearcstapa 06/30/24 2:20:11 PM #16:	The game has changed, and results no longer follow from conventional wisdom. The only way we're not getting the nightmare outcome at this point is if Trump's arterial plaques finally do their fucking job and fast. --- after years of waiting nothing came <cite>Mearcstapa posted [p:981089690] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>The game has changed, and results no longer follow from conventional wisdom.The only way we're not getting the nightmare outcome at this point is if Trump's arterial plaques finally do their fucking job and fast. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SpawnShadow 06/30/24 2:35:14 PM #17:	Bowing out now would only guarantee that Trump steamrolls whoever the Democrats replace Biden with, even if they managed to get Jesus as their replacement candidate. That said, because of how much the Republicans have rigged the entire political system and dominated the media over the course of the last 50 years or so, and especially in recent years, I'm not confident at all that Trump will lose, even if the Democrats do everything right. --- I don't want to live on this planet anymore. <cite>SpawnShadow posted [p:981089912] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Bowing out now would only guarantee that Trump steamrolls whoever the Democrats replace Biden with, even if they managed to get Jesus as their replacement candidate.That said, because of how much the Republicans have rigged the entire political system and dominated the media over the course of the last 50 years or so, and especially in recent years, I'm not confident at all that Trump will lose, even if the Democrats do everything right. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheHoldSteady 06/30/24 2:40:06 PM #18:	SpawnShadow posted... Bowing out now would only guarantee that Trump steamrolls whoever the Democrats replace Biden with, even if they managed to get Jesus as their replacement candidate. That said, because of how much the Republicans have rigged the entire political system and dominated the media over the course of the last 50 years or so, and especially in recent years, I'm not confident at all that Trump will lose, even if the Democrats do everything right. "You know, that Jesus guy, he's not as nice as he came across in the Bible, let me tell ya" "Jesus is WOKE?! Controversy over claims about the Eunuchs arise after 2000 years!" --- If she said we partied, then I'm pretty sure we partied. I really don't remember. I remember we departed from our bodies. <cite>TheHoldSteady posted [p:981089982] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>SpawnShadow posted... </cite><quote>Bowing out now would only guarantee that Trump steamrolls whoever the Democrats replace Biden with, even if they managed to get Jesus as their replacement candidate.That said, because of how much the Republicans have rigged the entire political system and dominated the media over the course of the last 50 years or so, and especially in recent years, I'm not confident at all that Trump will lose, even if the Democrats do everything right.</quote>"You know, that Jesus guy, he's not as nice as he came across in the Bible, let me tell ya""Jesus is WOKE?! Controversy over claims about the Eunuchs arise after 2000 years!" </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Mearcstapa 06/30/24 2:51:12 PM #19:	TheHoldSteady posted... "Jesus is WOKE?! https://newrepublic.com/post/174950/christianity-today-editor-evangelicals-call-jesus-liberal-weak Moore told NPR in an interview released Tuesday that multiple pastors had told him they would quote the Sermon on the Mount, specifically the part that says to turn the other cheek, when preaching. Someone would come up after the service and ask, Where did you get those liberal talking points? What was alarming to me is that in most of these scenarios, when the pastor would say, Im literally quoting Jesus Christ, the response would not be, I apologize. The response would be, Yes, but that doesnt work anymore. Thats weak, Moore said. When we get to the point where the teachings of Jesus himself are seen as subversive to us, then were in a crisis. --- after years of waiting nothing came <cite>Mearcstapa posted [p:981090108] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>TheHoldSteady posted... </cite><quote>"Jesus is WOKE?!</quote>https://newrepublic.com/post/174950/christianity-today-editor-evangelicals-call-jesus-liberal-weak<quote>Moore told NPR in an interview released Tuesday that multiple pastors had told him they would quote the Sermon on the Mount, specifically the part that says to turn the other cheek, when preaching. Someone would come up after the service and ask, Where did you get those liberal talking points?What was alarming to me is that in most of these scenarios, when the pastor would say, Im literally quoting Jesus Christ, the response would not be, I apologize. The response would be, Yes, but that doesnt work anymore. Thats weak, Moore said. When we get to the point where the teachings of Jesus himself are seen as subversive to us, then were in a crisis.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
TheHoldSteady 06/30/24 2:53:31 PM #20:	Mearcstapa posted... https://newrepublic.com/post/174950/christianity-today-editor-evangelicals-call-jesus-liberal-weak They'll all be outraged when they realize their figurehead for political conservatism was executed for being radically left to the political system of his time. --- If she said we partied, then I'm pretty sure we partied. I really don't remember. I remember we departed from our bodies. <cite>TheHoldSteady posted [p:981090144] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Mearcstapa posted... </cite><quote>https://newrepublic.com/post/174950/christianity-today-editor-evangelicals-call-jesus-liberal-weak</quote>They'll all be outraged when they realize their figurehead for political conservatism was executed for being radically left to the political system of his time. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
littlebro07 06/30/24 5:42:51 PM #21:	Imagine Trump wins but gets a Democrat controlled house and senate --- https://i.imgtc.com/MGGa6Os.gif <cite>littlebro07 posted [p:981092185] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Imagine Trump wins but gets a Democrat controlled house and senate </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
HighSeraph 06/30/24 5:45:27 PM #22:	littlebro07 posted... Imagine Trump wins but gets a Democrat controlled house and senate That's actually the best outcome in the event of a Trump victory --- She/Her She rings like a bell through the night <cite>HighSeraph posted [p:981092219] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>littlebro07 posted... </cite><quote>Imagine Trump wins but gets a Democrat controlled house and senate</quote>That's actually the best outcome in the event of a Trump victory </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
littlebro07 06/30/24 5:47:24 PM #23:	HighSeraph posted... That's actually the best outcome in the event of a Trump victory The Democrats could fix literally every issue in the country by naming the bills after Trump, he loves being credited for stuff so hell sign all of them into law --- https://i.imgtc.com/MGGa6Os.gif <cite>littlebro07 posted [p:981092245] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>HighSeraph posted... </cite><quote>That's actually the best outcome in the event of a Trump victory</quote>The Democrats could fix literally every issue in the country by naming the bills after Trump, he loves being credited for stuff so hell sign all of them into law </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mad_Cow46 06/30/24 5:50:06 PM #25:	littlebro07 posted... The Democrats could fix literally every issue in the country by naming the bills after Trump, he loves being credited for stuff so hell sign all of them into law and yet democrats cant fix anything and just make it worse having the majority in the senate and a shadow majority in the house. --- During the 2020 election cycle, Zaslav donated over $240,000 to Democratic politicians and PACs 2546 <cite>Mad_Cow46 posted [p:981092280] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>littlebro07 posted... </cite><quote>The Democrats could fix literally every issue in the country by naming the bills after Trump, he loves being credited for stuff so hell sign all of them into law </quote>and yet democrats cant fix anything and just make it worse having the majority in the senate and a shadow majority in the house. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
littlebro07 06/30/24 5:52:05 PM #26:	[LFAQs-redacted-quote] Probably wouldnt be enough of a majority in either chamber to impeach SCOTUS or Trump, just enough to save us from Project 2025 for a couple years --- https://i.imgtc.com/MGGa6Os.gif <cite>littlebro07 posted [p:981092311] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote><cite>[LFAQs-redacted-quote]</cite> Probably wouldnt be enough of a majority in either chamber to impeach SCOTUS or Trump, just enough to save us from Project 2025 for a couple years </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Starks 06/30/24 5:53:52 PM #27:	The model assumes debates do nothing and aren't scandals unto themselves. --- Paid for by StarksPAC, a registered 501(c)(4) <cite>Starks posted [p:981092330] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>The model assumes debates do nothing and aren't scandals unto themselves. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Diceheist 06/30/24 5:54:13 PM #28:	Persona posted... which was the one he missed vitally important It's actually up in the air. He predicted that Gore would beat Bush. When Gore then didn't beat Bush, he backpeddled and said his predictions were only about the popular vote, which Gore did win. He then predicted that Trump would beat Hillary. Trump did win the election, but obviously got annihilated in the popular vote. So whether you think he's been predicting the electoral vote winner or the popular vote winner, he either got 2000 or 2016 wrong. --- Day I lost CE access: TBA <cite>Diceheist posted [p:981092337] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Persona posted...</cite><quote>which was the one he missedvitally important </quote>It's actually up in the air.He predicted that Gore would beat Bush. When Gore then didn't beat Bush, he backpeddled and said his predictions were only about the popular vote, which Gore did win.He then predicted that Trump would beat Hillary. Trump did win the election, but obviously got annihilated in the popular vote.So whether you think he's been predicting the electoral vote winner or the popular vote winner, he either got 2000 or 2016 wrong. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
CARRRNE_ASADA 06/30/24 5:54:59 PM #29:	Mearcstapa posted... The game has changed, and results no longer follow from conventional wisdom. The only way we're not getting the nightmare outcome at this point is if Trump's arterial plaques finally do their fucking job and fast. Trump seems too fine (at least apparently) for a 77 year old who eats mc donalds. Hell you DONT SEE 70 year olds as big as he is. --- SEXY SEXY! <cite>CARRRNE_ASADA posted [p:981092347] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Mearcstapa posted... </cite><quote>The game has changed, and results no longer follow from conventional wisdom.The only way we're not getting the nightmare outcome at this point is if Trump's arterial plaques finally do their fucking job and fast.</quote>Trump seems too fine (at least apparently) for a 77 year old who eats mc donalds. Hell you DONT SEE 70 year olds as big as he is. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
superbot400 06/30/24 5:56:00 PM #30:	Any Democrat who pressure Biden to quit is a idiot, doesnt understand poltics. --- http://spinsulin.freeforums.org/the-fantastic-four-respect-thread-t4436.html, my huge ass respect thread. You won't see it. <cite>superbot400 posted [p:981092362] in Historian ... [t:80800756]...</cite> <quote>Any Democrat who pressure Biden to quit is a idiot, doesnt understand poltics. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > Historian Who Predicted 9 of 10 Election Results Tells Biden Not to Give Up (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > Historian Who Predicted 9 of 10 Election Results Tells Biden Not to Give Up