Current Events > I don't understand why so many people think Trump has an advantage over Biden

(+) Yeah! (+)

Im not crazy into the political space but I tend to quietly observe. There is a lot of talk that Trump has an advantage going into the 2024 election. I dont understand why. I think the only thing Ive seen referenced are polling numbers which I personally dont think are as accurate as they use to be. Im assuming younger people dont really participate in the polls because they dont respond to them in the first place. There is so much spam now a days that many people just block everything unknown.

Even if the polls are as accurate as your typical poll, I just look at the results around the country and think those results matter more than poll numbers. Republicans are losing seats left and right, especially in battle ground states. Biden is dominating in the primaries like expected even with the protest vote in Michigan.

Going in, Trump was expected to dominate like Biden did. Especially being a former president. That isnt really happening though. In fact, Haley just won in DC. Trump has been consistently taking far worse loses than Biden has. Trump also seems to be struggling with the independents which he MUST grab to win. This doesnt include all the cases that are going on and the ones that havent started yet. Not to mention the Republican Party in general is a shit show that cant even accomplish easy objectives for them.

Like I said, Im not some political expert. Not by a long shot. Even so, Im just looking around and I dont see how Biden is behind. It reminds me of the red wave talk in 2020 just for the Republican Party to flounder at every turn

People who haven't learned that polls are garbage aren't going to, so the result is what we see now. I'm very confident Trump hasn't gained more voters in the last 4 years and he has no real chance to win.

i feel like the opposite is worse, because if the suggestion is that biden is guaranteed to win people might be all why bother.

Fluttershy posted...

i feel like the opposite is worse, because if the suggestion is that biden is guaranteed to win people might be all why bother.

Hopefully that lesson has hit home after 2016.

i'm not optimistic. a lot of things have happened since 2016 that i should hope reasonable people look at and say wow, oh fuck, haha, never mind, i'm going to vote but it's like a gym membership. any excuse.

It's interesting that all the data, whether polls or betting sites or political analysts point to a close election with a slight advantage for Trump (as in a few percent). Yet the online discourse has become Trump has no chance or Biden is finished. It's going to be close, so fucking vote for Biden and stop trying to come up with fantastical reasons the election is already determined due to vibes or whatever.

Fluttershy posted...

i'm not optimistic. a lot of things have happened since 2016 that i should hope reasonable people look at and say wow, oh fuck, haha, never mind, i'm going to vote but it's like a gym membership. any excuse.

For sure, but one can hope

ssjevot posted...

It's interesting that all the data, whether polls or betting sites or political analysts point to a close election with a slight advantage for Trump (as in a few percent). Yet the online discourse has become Trump has no chance or Biden is finished. It's going to be close, so fucking vote for Biden and stop trying to come up with fantastical reasons the election is already determined due to vibes or whatever.

From what Ive heard the Dems are just going to steal it again so maybe it really isnt worth bothering.

/s