Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 411: Presidential Election MMXX Rebirth

(+) Yeah! (+)

KamikazePotato posted...

I do, and I think this is something we're just going to fundamentally disagree on. I don't consider third-party votes to be a valid option for anyone legitimately concerned with a potential Trump presidency. If everyone who 3rd-party protest-voted against Hillary Clinton just...voted for Clinton, Trump might have been dead in the water eight years ago.

You've been tricked by liberals into thinking the left undecideds are the problem, but if the Libertarian 3rd party voters (ostensibly, Republicans) voted for Trump, he would have walked away with it.

(In fact, while fact-checking my numbers, I found multiple articles mentioning that Jill Stein voters caused Hillary's loss, meanwhile the numbers in their own articles show 4x as many Libertarian votes. It's a resilient talking point not supported by numbers, and I'm so over it.)

what you consider just expressing displeasure against the *blank*, is to me harmful rhetoric that some more neutral onlookers will be tempted to follow.

I mean how is this any different than when MAGA call the most conservative people you've ever seen in your life RINOs for saying they find Trump distasteful? "Only say good things about the party or you're helping the bad guys--which makes you a bad guy".

Over the past few years I've just grown very tired with the way that the left handles optics and rhetoric as a whole. It feels like watching them constantly shoot themselves in the foot.

I think what's actually happening is that you tend to BE around left leaning people more, and so when you see leftists grousing in a way you don't like, you assume that it's strictly a leftist thing. Just look at any right wing protest or speak to the ACTUAL don't tread on my right wing dudes--they are legitimately the most off-putting people you'll ever meet.

There is something to be said for Leftist infighting, but "I only like leftists who shut up and color" is not a coalition-building tactic, so can you really blame them for doing the same in return?

This is an issue common to everywhere with FPTP systems and ultimately the only solution is electoral reform. It will always be difficult until then as candidates will just keep chasing the tiny minority that are swing voters rather than even appealing to a broader section of the electorate.

Still think Trump has more to lose compared to last time than Biden. Biden is merely another four years older. Trump is also four years older, is no longer the incumbent, and is way more controversial than he was even back then. And Biden is still way less controversial than Hillary Clinton was in 2016, even if her controversies were dumb.

Seanchan posted...

Oh shit, he's running it back!

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/politics/george-santos-running-again/index.html

That's my district!

[sitcom laugh track]

no really that's my district please send help

---

Didn't watch SOTU but saw some live reactions and it sounded like a good speech and effective in countering the "Biden is old/senile/doesn't know where he is" shit with him being fired up throughout the speech and constantly riffing back at them when the GOP repeatedly interrupted him with their "liar" shit and other "muh civility" stuff.

The one misstep I heard of is what Tony mentioned - when he referred to undocumented immigrants as "illegals" but I think it was a genuine flub because he went off script to disarm them of their "Say Her Name!" (once more stealing slogans from the left, and black Americans in general) stuff they were trying to make a thing up to, and even, as he was walking to the podium. He later referred to immigrants as "migrants" so it definitely struck me as him messing up when he was speaking off the cuff. Not great, but I'm not going to tear down the whole speech over one moment like that when otherwise he was calling out the GOP on their bullshit and speaking about the accomplishments of the administration (of which there are many.)

I have the luxury of living in a deep blue state, so I get the benefit of protest voting to my heart's content.

I want them to wonder why, for even a split second, why they didn't get more votes. And maybe realize they are winning mostly off the back of "not-trump" and not "we agree with you."

If I lived in a swing state though I would begrudgingly vote Biden because he isn't a literal ghoul.

MalcolmMasher posted...

My amateur understanding is that the 6 years part is at least founded in truth? It's something like: if you enter the U.S. and claim that you're seeking asylum in the U.S., because staying in your home country would be dangerous for you, then by law the U.S. must give you a hearing in court to formally adjudicate your claim. And those courts have an enormous backlog.

This is correct. It's also why we need to change the law that doesn't allow people waiting for their court date to work in the US.

Literally millions of potential workers told to just sit on their hands for 6 years and live off whatever small amount they get from the government.

FFDragon posted...

I have the luxury of living in a deep blue state, so I get the benefit of protest voting to my heart's content.

I want them to wonder why, for even a split second, why they didn't get more votes. And maybe realize they are winning mostly off the back of "not-trump" and not "we agree with you."

If I lived in a swing state though I would begrudgingly vote Biden because he isn't a literal ghoul.

Can I ask for clarification: youre protesting that the Democrats have moved too far left, correct? You dont like how communists like Bernie Sanders and AOC are controlling the party?

Or is it that you think the Dems are too moderate and centrist, and they need to start pushing further left to help people instead of corporations?

I just cant tell, and I sure hope the party interprets your protest correctly, because there are voters protesting the Dems for BOTH of those reasons.

Yeah this is the thing I think a lot of people forget when complaining about progressive parties in more progressive spaces, that there are usually also people on the other end of the spectrum doing the same thing. Which is another reason a form of proportional representation is necessary, because these big tent parties cant hold. It always descends into infighting whoever is in charge.

Espeon posted...

Or is it that you think the Dems are too moderate and centrist, and they need to start pushing further left to help people instead of corporations?

this one

I fear a world where people think US dems are currently too far left when in any other country they would be the far right.

FFDragon posted...

this one

I fear a world where people think US dems are currently too far left when in any other country they would be the far right.

Ive got bad news for you about the political leanings of the American populous.

look at least they're barely scraping over 50% dem

trump has yet to win the popular vote

that's like... something

FFDragon posted...

I want them to wonder why, for even a split second, why they didn't get more votes. And maybe realize they are winning mostly off the back of "not-trump" and not "we agree with you."

Meanwhile Republicans will see that things are 'closer' and be like "We don't have to worry about remaining competitive! We can keep on our path, and keep our cult voting for us while doing nothing to appeal to moderate democrats."

Republican presidential candidates have only won the popular vote in 1 of the last 8 elections.

Over my lifetime they have only won the popular vote twice.

In my local area we had a mayor who spent a bunch of money stopping a cold weather shelter for the homeless being built, and councillors who tried to put a pool in an estuary that was important for wildlife. Our community managed to rally together and oust them. Always remember to pay attention to the little things.

Also, not to sound like a broken record, but getting local politicians to show their stuff is how you grow your way to national politics. You're never going to get a serious presidential candidate who doesn't have a track record (on the left anyway...)

JeffreyRaze posted...

You're never going to get a serious presidential candidate who doesn't have a track record (on the left anyway...)

A non-celebrity, even a rich one, could never pull off what 2016 Trump did regardless of party. I would not fully discount the possibility of a celebrity Democrat presidential nominee.

Its a bit hard to say where the Democrats would be in other countries because they are so broad, but most global comparisons I have seen tend to put them around the global centre. Twenty years ago they would have been to the right of nearly every mainstream conservative party but they have shifted left. Despite that, the party right is still there, it is a very broad alliance which is difficult to compare globally.

What we can all agree on that these studies also show, however, is that the Republicans are easily one of the furthest right major parties in a democracy.

LightningStrikes posted...

one of the furthest right major parties in a democracy.

Depending on how the next election goes, we might have to revise that last word!

At the risk of reviving the conversation from last night, I think there's some interesting information here about the State of the Union.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/08/politics/cnn-poll-biden-sotu-speech-reaction/index.html

More than 6 in 10 Americans who watched President Joe Bidens State of the Union address had a positive reaction to the speech, according to a CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, with a smaller 35% reacting very positively.

That pattern of widespread but tempered positivity mirrors the reception for Bidens speeches in previous years. Last year, 72% of viewers reacted positively, with 34% saying their reaction was very positive the lowest very positive number in CNNs polling dating back to 1998. In 2022, 71% had a positive reaction, with 41% saying their reaction was very positive.

As in the past two years, Democratic speech watchers reactions to Biden were almost universally positive, with about two-thirds of independents who tuned in offering a positive reaction. Roughly three-quarters of Republicans who watched this years address offered a negative review, up from about 6 in 10 for Bidens past two State of the Union addresses.

Polarization continues.

Americans who watched on Thursday said, 62% to 38%, that the policies Biden proposed will move the US in the right direction, rather than the wrong direction. In a survey conducted before the speech, just 45% of those same people said Bidens policies would move the US in the right direction.

Following the speech, 31% of those who watched said they have a lot of confidence in Bidens ability to carry out his duties as president, 28% that they have some confidence, and 41% that they have no real confidence. Thats a slight uptick from a survey conducted in the days before the speech, when 25% of those same people expressed a lot of confidence in his ability, 27% some confidence, and 48% none at all.

Much of Bidens improvement on this score came among political independents who watched the speech. Before the speech, 51% of independents expressed at least some confidence in Bidens ability to carry out his duties, and that rose to 68% among the same group of independents after the speech. Perceptions of Bidens ability to carry out the duties of the presidency did not change significantly among either Democrats or Republicans who tuned in.

At least there's positive trends correlated with the speech though.

Oh also found this little gem at the bottom of the article.

Roughly half of speech watchers, 53%, also said that the level of US support Biden proposes offering to Israel is about right, with 28% saying hes proposing too much support, and 20% not enough. And a similar 49% of those who tuned in said Bidens proposed levels of US aid for Ukraine are about right, with 34% saying Bidens proposed level of Ukraine aid is too much, and 16% that its not enough.

Pain.

A 42% plurality of speech watchers younger than 45 said that Bidens proposals offer too much support to Israel, an opinion shared by just 22% of viewers age 45 and older. Theres a more modest age divide on Bidens proposed level of aid to Ukraine.

Older voters fucking love Israel I guess.

KamikazePotato posted...

Much of Bidens improvement on this score came among political independents who watched the speech. Before the speech, 51% of independents expressed at least some confidence in Bidens ability to carry out his duties, and that rose to 68% among the same group of independents after the speech.

Republicans are mostly lost but if this helps kill the "biden is senile" bullshit among everyone else that'd be great. Encouraging that it seems to have made a healthy impact on independents.

Ten years ago I'd say that at least depends on what constitutes a major party in countries not tied down to a 2 party system.

Now Rs chased away all their own more (relatively) moderate politicians. But also those parties in other countries have gained more ground. So, whatever

Edit: This is in regards to Rs being the most conservative major party. Typed slow I guess

KamikazePotato posted...

Older voters fucking love Israel I guess.

I'd say the average voter's knowledge of the Israel-Palestine conflict is this:

-Israel was attacked on October 7th by a Hamas Terrorist attack
-Israel and the US are allies

And, that's it.

kevwaffles posted...

Ten years ago I'd say that at least depends on what constitutes a major party in countries not tied down to a 2 party system.

Now Rs chased away all their own more (relatively) moderate politicians. But also those parties in other countries have gained more ground. So, whatever

Edit: This is in regards to Rs being the most conservative major party. Typed slow I guess

Yeah what you describe definitely made it easier to write without qualifiers haha. There are some countries where actual Neo Nazis have representation, albeit usually not much of it. But as far as parties which can lead a government go? Its basically them, Indias BJP, Turkeys AKP, and Hungarys Fidesz.

Which is an amazing unintentional segue into this:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/08/politics/donald-trump-viktor-orban-meeting/index.html

Orbn meeting Trump in Florida today. Not meeting Biden funnily enough!

Dancedreamer posted...

I'd say the average voter's knowledge of the Israel-Palestine conflict is this:

-Israel was attacked on October 7th by a Hamas Terrorist attack
-Israel and the US are allies

And, that's it.

I would add that there's been a ton of propaganda over the past 20 years (and probably earlier but I wasn't politically conscious then) about how the Israel-Palestine conflict is just soooo complicated don't even try to understand it it's impossible for you to understand.

It's really not that complicated but either as a result of this propaganda or as a result of just general political ignorance, most people in the US really truly don't know much more than what you've said, and as a result end up backing Israel 100%, practically by default.

tbh the DNP's general response since Oct 7 has *shocked* me, in a good way. It's also been a tragically awful response but I fully expected it to be 100x worse.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1766129382525911106

Trump managed to post bond in the Carroll defamation case. $91.6m.

The company in question, Chubb, is one where he had appointed the CEO to his trade advisory committee as president. He was right up against the deadline (the judge in the case denied his motion to buy more time, pointing out his actions were very clearly stalling) where if he didn't post bond then Carroll could start collecting the judgment - end of day Monday was the time limit (since the clock expired over the weekend it gets the following business day.)

As for the $450m+ civil fraud judgment, he has until March 25th to post bond unless an appeals court cuts him a break - which has not happened so far.

Lara Trump officially co-chair of the RNC.

I hope they raid the coffers and pilfer them for everything just as they do everything else they touch.

literal crime family

Can't wait for the RNC to pay that 450m bond.

Dont they have less than $10M at the moment?

Dancedreamer posted...

I'd say the average voter's knowledge of the Israel-Palestine conflict is this:

-Israel was attacked on October 7th by a Hamas Terrorist attack
-Israel and the US are allies

And, that's it.

This is too deep.

I'd wager it leans closer to "that is the place from the bible".

And a lot of racist/xenophobic stuff.

https://theintercept.com/2024/03/07/aaron-bushnell-fbi-anarchism-extremist/

The GOP standing up for those unfairly attacked in Biden's State of the Union.

lead pipes

The AG of Kansas everyone:

https://twitter.com/aidan_smx/status/1765953717776376147

"benefits that may be entirely speculative"

I mean of course they dont want lead pipes replaced. Theyll have less future GOP voters if people have water without lead in it

Not that this comes to a surprise to anyone here, but in the SOTU rebuttal by Senator Britt she straight-up told a lie that's honestly pretty audacious in how completely and totally she misrepresents it.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/katie-britt-biden-border-policies-anecdote/index.html

She told an anecdote where she portrayed it as her visiting an American woman from Texas who told her how she had been sex trafficked by cartels since she was a child. Britt goes on to imply that this happened in America and was the fault of Biden's immigration policy.

The reality when an independent journalist (god forbid the major media organizations could track this down - CNN only picking this up like a full 24 hours after that one journalist did the work, and when I checked a few hours ago none of them had) tracked down her story:

• It happened during the George W Bush administration
• It took place in Mexico
• The victim was Mexican (this last point shouldn't matter but we all know to the GOP and their fear-mongering it does and that's why they framed it as if she was an American.)

Thorn posted...

It happened during the George W Bush administration

Who? Everybody knows that after Clinton left office we had 16 years of Obama ruining America, followed immediately by Biden taking over as dictator in 2016. That much time in power means literally everything bad in the world is the Democrats' fault.

At this point the very fact of the matter that Trump first gained ground in the Republican Party through vocal opposition to Bush-era foreign policy means Bush might as well be a Democrat.

... not really, no

I was not serious tbf.

Conservative grifters appear to have latched onto a new target, that being....

Uh....

Is this note correct?

....Southerner women, for not being feminine enough?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/25731870.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/0a0752af.jpg

...Bold strategy, Cotton.

Republicans, lose the women vote challenge speedrun

tbqh at this point any woman who was going to vote republican in november wasn't going to be dissuaded by anything the party could possibly do

The rule remains true: anytime a conservative on Twitter is complaining about some woman being unattractive, you can scroll down to the attached picture and see the most beautiful human ever captured on film

the incel-ification of the american right wing

I did not see Bombshell.

Not that there was ever any doubt, but Biden and Trump both mathematically clinched the nominations after last night's primaries.

I also see, and I worry I am jinxing it by pointing this out, but Bidens polling average has improved by 3% in the last month, bringing him about level with Trump. Still a long way to go but so far it seems that the wait for the campaign rhetoric has been borne out.

LightningStrikes posted...

I also see, and I worry I am jinxing it by pointing this out, but Bidens polling average has improved by 3% in the last month, bringing him about level with Trump. Still a long way to go but so far it seems that the wait for the campaign rhetoric has been borne out.

People like the idea of voting for Trump until they're forced to treat him as Trump and not a nebulous Generic Republican.

Dude started campaigning long in advance for heaven's sake!

The thing about the Generic Republican is that in theory its true, they would be ahead. Ive said this before but it really does bear repeating: sitting governments are getting hammered all over the world because of global economic conditions that the US is also subject to. The reason Biden and the Democrats have held up as well as they have is because the Republican party is full of lunatics.