Current Events > Any of you here don't see a path to victory for trump?

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GranTurismo
09/17/23 4:01:11 PM
#1:


Supposedly he is a lock to win the repub. nomination. But have heard others say that , how is it possible if it is the same final 2 that the outcome won't be different. Meaning, the same people who wouldn't votef for trump last election won't vote for him again....
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CE_gonna_CE
09/17/23 4:07:16 PM
#2:


Big Mac Heartattack

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wanderingshade
09/17/23 4:08:30 PM
#3:


Since Repubs think they might lose they're going to do all sorts of "Voting area in predom. Black area only open from 8am - 2pm" type of shit. And or "losing" mail votes.

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GranTurismo
09/17/23 4:08:39 PM
#4:


CE_gonna_CE posted...
Big Mac Heartattack
what?
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reincarnator07
09/17/23 4:08:50 PM
#5:


GranTurismo posted...
Supposedly he is a lock to win the repub. nomination. But have heard others say that , how is it possible if it is the same final 2 that the outcome won't be different. Meaning, the same people who wouldn't votef for trump last election won't vote for him again....
The difference is there's now 4 years of Biden's administration on record. Trump would have to make an argument to the effect of "Now you've seen 4 years of Biden, do you really want that instead of putting me back in?"

Of course that would rely on people forgetting just how disastrous Trump was and ignoring the achievements of Biden, but enlightened centrists have made stupid decisions previously.

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Euripides
09/17/23 4:09:09 PM
#6:


He's a lock for the nomination, but won't win the presidency unless there's a lot of cheating (which means he has a chance, because MAGA AG's will happily shit on the constitution to hand him the victory)

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CE_gonna_CE
09/17/23 4:09:40 PM
#7:


GranTurismo posted...
what?
Did I stutter

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Questionmarktarius
09/17/23 4:10:12 PM
#8:


CE_gonna_CE posted...
Big Mac Heartattack
what happens if that happens to both?
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CE_gonna_CE
09/17/23 4:11:25 PM
#9:


Questionmarktarius posted...
what happens if that happens to both?
Both

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Shadow_Don
09/17/23 4:12:52 PM
#10:


We should be extremely cautious to take it for granted after 2016, but I think trump is pretty fucked in the general. It's gross that so many Republicans are still going with trump but they need to win by razor thin margins if they were to win it at all and I think there are enough that either died of covid or were actually disgusted by jan 6. Him most likely being in jail by the election also matters.


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Lillymon
09/17/23 4:16:34 PM
#11:


There is a path to victory of course but it seems pretty narrow. His devoted supporters will obviously vote for him but that's never enough for victory. He's got to target moderates and independents too, so his path to victory depends on them looking at all the shit he's got himself into and being like "Yeah, I want to give him a second term".

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Tyranthraxus
09/17/23 4:22:26 PM
#12:


GranTurismo posted...
Supposedly he is a lock to win the repub. nomination. But have heard others say that , how is it possible if it is the same final 2 that the outcome won't be different. Meaning, the same people who wouldn't votef for trump last election won't vote for him again....
Based on historical trends losers tend to get even less votes than they did in the previous election for the same position and that's without 91 felony indictments.

GOP knows this which is why they've made moves on independent legislature and other means of ignoring election results.

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GranTurismo
09/17/23 7:42:44 PM
#13:


Tyranthraxus posted...
Based on historical trends losers tend to get even less votes than they did in the previous election for the same position and that's without 91 felony indictments.

GOP knows this which is why they've made moves on independent legislature and other means of ignoring election results.

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Smallville
09/18/23 9:17:49 AM
#14:


idk

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Sariana21
09/18/23 9:41:16 AM
#15:


Lillymon posted...
There is a path to victory of course but it seems pretty narrow. His devoted supporters will obviously vote for him but that's never enough for victory. He's got to target moderates and independents too, so his path to victory depends on them looking at all the shit he's got himself into and being like "Yeah, I want to give him a second term".
His path to victory the first time was pretty narrow.

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Tom_Joad
09/18/23 9:51:53 AM
#16:


Those who vote in primaries are a very, very small portion of the voting electorate.

And a very small portion of the GOP electorate as well.

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#17
Post #17 was unavailable or deleted.
GranTurismo
09/18/23 9:55:33 AM
#18:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

many many people are saying this
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bigblu89
09/18/23 10:07:43 AM
#19:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


I feel the same way becasue, and it's a sad reason, is that there's literally hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of Trump voters that have literally died in the 4 years since the last election, and millions of new voters aged 18-21 that weren't old enough to vote in 2020. And about 70% of voters under the age of 25 vote Democrat, it doesn't make for a good swing in Trump's favor.

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GranTurismo
09/18/23 10:08:54 AM
#20:


bigblu89 posted...
I feel the same way becasue, and it's a sad reason, is that there's literally hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of Trump voters that have literally died in the 4 years since the last election, and millions of new voters aged 18-21 that weren't old enough to vote in 2020. And about 70% of voters under the age of 25 vote Democrat, it doesn't make for a good swing in Trump's favor.
is that number correct, 70 perc. of under 25?
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COVxy
09/18/23 10:12:09 AM
#21:


Biden barely won in 2020. With Biden's approval ratings and the GOP's tactics, anybody who doesn't think Trump has a fairly good chance of winning is delusional.

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Devilanse333
09/18/23 10:14:23 AM
#22:


Theres always a path to victory for him. I just think with all thats happened his odds are way low. Expect the all time heavyweight champion ridiculous campaign shenanigans from him when the election gets to full steam.

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:14:31 AM
#23:


COVxy posted...
Biden barely won in 2020. With Biden's approval ratings and the GOP's tactics, anybody who doesn't think Trump has a fairly good chance of winning is delusional.
Winners don't cheat.

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LightHawKnight
09/18/23 10:14:36 AM
#24:


So why do people think republicans are not going to cheat up the ass to win the election?

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bigblu89
09/18/23 10:16:07 AM
#25:


GranTurismo posted...
is that number correct, 70 perc. of under 25?

This is from the NY Times, so take it with a grain, but:

Tufts Universitys Tisch College of Civic Life, perhaps the most assiduous tracker of young voters, estimated on that 27 percent of 18-to-29 voters cast ballots in midterm elections and that 63 percent of them voted for Democrats in House of Representatives elections.

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Questionmarktarius
09/18/23 10:19:33 AM
#26:


In presidential elections the "are you better off now?" question always matters. Or it might not, since Biden's era has been strangely status-quo outside of the rhetoric.
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TheHorus
09/18/23 10:21:47 AM
#27:


LightHawKnight posted...
So why do people think republicans are not going to cheat up the ass to win the election?
Because that's what the Kremlin cronies are going to do again. Just like Brexit.
https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-documents-show-putin-wanted-sow-chaos-us-supporting-trump-2021-7

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:21:55 AM
#28:


Biden really ought to pull the lever that says "cheaper cas prices" right now, he's not doing himself any favors here

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mercurydude
09/18/23 10:23:46 AM
#29:


If conditions were exactly the same as they were last time around, he wouldn't stand a chance, but republicans will try to cheat in every way they can to help him... and they've also learned what did and didn't work the last time they were cheating to try to help him.

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CableZL
09/18/23 10:26:03 AM
#30:


There are a few issues Trump has:
  • After January 6th, his voting base shrank pretty heavily
  • After 4 criminal indictments, he may have gained support with Republicans, but lost more support among Democrats and Independents.
  • The demographic he is strongest with is the older generation that is dying off.
  • The demographic he is weakest with is Gen Z, which is adding millions more voting age individuals yearly.
  • Also he's dumb as fuck


There are still Republicans out there who want nothing to do with Trump, but so much of the Republican party is clinging onto him that there's no way they can get rid of him.

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DarthAragorn
09/18/23 10:26:56 AM
#31:


American voters are very very stupid is the thing

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:27:11 AM
#32:


CableZL posted...
* The demographic he is strongest with is the older generation that is dying off.

A lot of them from a disease he initially downplayed.

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Questionmarktarius
09/18/23 10:29:23 AM
#33:


DarthAragorn posted...
American voters are very very stupid is the thing
This is why Article 2 itself didn't bother with a popular vote.
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COVxy
09/18/23 10:29:25 AM
#34:


CableZL posted...
There are a few issues Trump has:
* After January 6th, his voting base shrank pretty heavily
* After 4 criminal indictments, he may have gained support with Republicans, but lost more support among Democrats and Independents.
* The demographic he is strongest with is the older generation that is dying off.
* The demographic he is weakest with is Gen Z, which is adding millions more voting age individuals yearly.
* Also he's dumb as fuck

There are still Republicans out there who want nothing to do with Trump, but so much of the Republican party is clinging onto him that there's no way they can get rid of him.

Current prospective polling has Trump and Biden neck and neck in popular vote.

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masterpug53
09/18/23 10:34:08 AM
#35:


In a normal election I would be worried about voters having the collective memory of an earthworm. However, while that may still be true, Trump, his cult, and the active politicians most loyal to him are doing absolutely everything in their power to constantly remind the American public how horrible and incompetent they are. The conservative-dominated SCOTUS have shined the world's biggest spotlight on themselves for years to come, and the slim majority of looneys running the asylum in the House are also being very publicly visible in their antics, which diminishes the likelihood that independents / low-info voters just give Biden a blanket blame for all the crap happening under his administration.

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:34:17 AM
#36:


Imagine living in a country where the election priorities are person > party > policy, in that order.
lmao what the actual fuck

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CableZL
09/18/23 10:35:03 AM
#37:


COVxy posted...
Current prospective polling has Trump and Biden neck and neck in popular vote.

Yeah, but that doesn't address the fact the demographic he's strongest with is dying off and the demographic he's weakest with is growing.

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Southernfatman
09/18/23 10:35:49 AM
#38:


Never underestimate:
-The stupidity, gullibility, apathy, and fickleness of the average American.
-The cult like fanaticism of the Republican party. Even those who hate Trump hate Democrats/liberals even more and would rather have Trump as president than a Democrat.
-The propaganda machine of the media that props up the fascists
-Democrat ineptness
-Republican cheating and Democrats' lack of a spine and reluctance to put up a fight.

His chances might be lower, but the left should never act like a victory is a sure thing. That's what helped get us Trump in the first place. The last election wasn't exactly a landslide either.

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COVxy
09/18/23 10:36:54 AM
#39:


CableZL posted...
Yeah, but that doesn't address the fact the demographic he's strongest with is dying off and the demographic he's weakest with is growing.

Typically democrats need to crush the popular vote to get anywhere near electoral college wins due to gerrymandering.

2020 being an extremely close race and the current polling completely contradicts the narrative you are trying to spin.

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#40
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LightHawKnight
09/18/23 10:38:41 AM
#41:


Avirosb posted...
A lot of them from a disease he initially downplayed.

He stopped downplaying it when?

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CableZL
09/18/23 10:40:48 AM
#42:


COVxy posted...
Typically democrats need to crush the popular vote to get anywhere near electoral college wins due to gerrymandering.

2020 being an extremely close race and the current polling completely contradicts the narrative you are trying to spin

Gerrymandering would affect US House representation, but not a presidential election. Presidential elections are a collection of state-wide popular vote contests with a few exceptions. Also, can you post the polls you're referencing? I'm not doubting what you're saying in regard to polls being close. I'm just curious about the sampling.

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:40:52 AM
#43:


LightHawKnight posted...
He stopped downplaying it when?
When he wanted to take credit for the vaccine from a very jealous person against the fake chinese hoax.
Look, the man is complex, okay? The duality of Donald.

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Sariana21
09/18/23 10:42:06 AM
#44:


Southernfatman posted...
Never underestimate:
-The stupidity, gullibility, apathy, and fickleness of the average American.
You forgot racism.

-The cult like fanaticism of the Republican party. Even those who hate Trump hate Democrats/liberals even more and would rather have Trump as president than a Democrat.
So much this.

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GranTurismo
09/18/23 10:44:35 AM
#45:


Questionmarktarius posted...
This is why Article 2 itself didn't bother with a popular vote.
Yeah the writers of the Constitution didn't think very highly of most Americans did they?
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COVxy
09/18/23 10:47:07 AM
#46:


CableZL posted...
Gerrymandering would affect US House representation, but not a presidential election. Presidential elections are a collection of state-wide popular vote contests with a few exceptions. Also, can you post the polls you're referencing? I'm not doubting what you're saying in regard to polls being close. I'm just curious about the sampling.

It would be impossible for the popular vote and electoral college votes to be in discord if what you are saying is true. Gerrymandering was the wrong term to use though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/13/2024-election-biden-trump-in-statistical-tie-in-new-poll.html

They've been pretty stabily neck and neck across many polls with no indication of it really changing.

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DarthAragorn
09/18/23 10:47:14 AM
#47:


GranTurismo posted...
Yeah the writers of the Constitution didn't think very highly of most Americans did they?
They didn't, but mostly because most Americans were poor, women, or black.

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Southernfatman
09/18/23 10:47:44 AM
#48:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


This too.

Sariana21 posted...
You forgot racism.

Yeah, I did. That too.

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Avirosb
09/18/23 10:49:10 AM
#49:


DarthAragorn posted...
They didn't, but mostly because most Americans were poor, women, or black.
The latter were property so they likely didn't even consider them.

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Questionmarktarius
09/18/23 10:51:13 AM
#50:


GranTurismo posted...
Yeah the writers of the Constitution didn't think very highly of most Americans did they?
Not particularly, no. That's why the house has two-year terms and they're all elected at once, why the senate had long overlapping terms and were appointed by state legislatures, and why the president was elected by a handful of people also appointed by the states.

The constitution was engineered around stability and caution, and avoiding fads. Then, the populists screwed it all up around 1900 or so. The president wasn't even supposed to be particularly important - just a warm body to show up as a figurehead, and a safety-valve against a zeitgeist congress.
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