Current Events > Housing Market Topic

(+) Yeah! (+)

Who else is a pent-up buyer, waiting for the right time?

I just can't come up with the right balance of forces that I think will actually occur. Unemployment is still low, theres still a huge gap between jobs and labor meaning unemployment will remain low and wage inflation will remain high. As long as those factors exist, inflation will remain. Now interest rates are rising which brings down that jobs excess and productivity with should bring those factors down. We're basically going to enter a period of stagflation. Heres the kicker, boomers are retiring and theres not enough workforce to replace them. And these are all kinds of jobs including skilled labor. That one factor alone might be the biggest factor and JPow might never get unemployment to his target unless he absolutely suffocates the economy. There are currently about TWICE as many job openings as there were 6 years ago when things were booming.

As long as people are working, wage inflation is happening, they will keep spending, inflation will continue, and it will create a demand driven price floor for housing. On the flip-side, boomers are retired and the labor force is shrinking, there may be less volume of people overall wanting houses, that drop in demand will pop the bubble, especially in combination with very high mortgage rates.

I think as we go into Q1 and Q2, the long-term outlook will look poorer than it is now and that will drive up bond yields and keep mortgage rates high.

Overall I think there is a bubble that will burst, but as with all things real estate, that burst will occur over the span of several years, not months.

Your guys' thoughts?

https://fortune.com/2022/12/07/housing-market-forecast-home-prices-2023-housing-crash-prediction/amp/

tl;dr theyre expecting a 20 percent drop which would bring us to February 2021 level prices. Wont happen until 2024 at this rate though.

I need rates to dip below 4% again damn it

Got our mortgage in 2019 at 4.75%, was higher than average due to being a 0 down no PMI loan and missed out on refinancing

need them to hurry up and crash. had enough for a downpayment for a while now and ALMOST pulled the trigger during covid, but chickened out over job uncertainty.

good news is im now promoted but bad news is i waited too long and all the prices are through the roof AND interest is up

but im so done sharing walls with shit ass neighbors that ill probably do something stupid this summer and buy when theyre still like 7% and just refi when this alleged crash happens

littlebro07 posted...

I need rates to dip below 4% again damn it

Got our mortgage in 2019 at 4.75%, was higher than average due to being a 0 down no PMI loan and missed out on refinancing

Bro ur fucking up in multiple topics

Canada housing market in shambles

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Spent 318 on mine in November of 2021. Highest value on Zillow and other sites was in the range of 360 -370 or so. I'm only under water if it "crashes" more than 15% of that range, assuming any of those projections were accurate at all. Was appraised at 325 at the time of purchase though so I'm assuming they were accurate

Tag

I pulled the trigger and bought in November, was the only offer and got it below asking price. 6.25% interest rate sucks tho, need to refi when the rates go down

I've been of the opinion that prices will overall stay the same or go down slightly, but with interest rates rising youre still paying about the same total. Idk if I'd call that a bubble bursting.

That is good though since it allows for more folks to afford the initial buy in I suppose and stops corporations from buying out everything, but the best way to combat it imo is to address the issue that there aren't as many new homes being built to make the two types of housing markets compete against eachother.

The government would have to subsidize that in some way in order to make it affordable to people while keeping out the deep pockets of corporations. That's a pretty big undertaking though.

ugh

I'm planning to buy a home within the next few months. The market in my state wasn't ever crazy so I don't expect prices to drop much when the crash happens.

But it's proving to be somewhat difficulty because I'm a single individual and most houses in my area are very large with more excess space and rooms then I'll know what to do with.

And most places otherwise are a good 50-60 min drive away from my work place.

Prismsblade posted...

I'm planning to buy a home within the next few months. The market in my state wasn't ever crazy so I don't expect prices to drop much when the crash happens.

But it's proving to be somewhat difficulty because I'm a single individual and most houses in my area are very large with more excess space and rooms then I'll know what to do with.

And most places otherwise are a good 50-60 min drive away from my work place.

interest rates are pretty high right now too