Current Events > Desantis vs Biden is going to be an absolute bloodbath

(+) Yeah! (+)

legendarylemur posted...

People underestimate how easy it is to actually win a 2nd term as long as you don't do something crazy like spread a deadly virus due to negligence.

The incumbent advantage isn't nearly as prevalent for presidents as it is for other political positions.

PiOverlord posted...

The incumbent advantage isn't nearly as prevalent for presidents as it is for other political positions.

Why do you think so?

"Only 10 U.S. presidents have been previously defeated in their quest for another term."

Historically, it's something that literally only happens once every 20 years on average (and it has been ~24 years since Bush lost to Clinton). We just had a losing incumbent, so yeah it's just not happening

If Desantis chooses to run he will absolutely win unless some amazing Democrat candidate comes out of nowhere.. And that's not going to happen.

legendarylemur posted...

Why do you think so?

"Only 10 U.S. presidents have been previously defeated in their quest for another term."

Historically, it's something that literally only happens once every 20 years on average (and it has been ~24 years since Bush lost to Clinton). We just had a losing incumbent, so yeah it's just not happening

We historically haven't had our voters of a particular party this ideologically fired up, polarized, and involved as we have recently.

The incumbent advantage is contingent on the voter base being disconnected and disinterested, and the opposition party not putting up much of a fight because they're biding time till the next cycle. None of that is true right now. Just like none of it was true in 2020. Republicans are frothing at the mouth and on the warpath, right now.

PiOverlord posted...

IN 2024, she will technically be eligible. You have to be 35 prior to being sworn in, and she'll be 35 before the election even.

Unless she magically turns at least 65-70 by 2024, she will have no chance.

Republicans seem to be winning anyway (even when they lose). They just keep putting candidates who are further to the right than the last and the Democrats respond with someone further to the right, redefining where the center is. Voters who lean Democratic put up with it merely because it's the less bad option.

gamer167 posted...

Hopefully Biden can keep it together until then. If he drops out and Kamala runs in his place the Democrats might as well not even bother and give the presidency to whoever tf the Republican candidate is.

I know people would like AOC to run, but I feel like they underestimate how much the status quo Dems in her own party would do to sabotage her. They wouldnt even give old man Bernie a shot because they where too worried about him coming for their own pockets.

Yeah and Bernie actually polled well for the general election.

AOC might not.

legendarylemur posted...

Why do you think so?

"Only 10 U.S. presidents have been previously defeated in their quest for another term."

Historically, it's something that literally only happens once every 20 years on average (and it has been ~24 years since Bush lost to Clinton). We just had a losing incumbent, so yeah it's just not happening

There have only been 45 distinct presidents. Not every single one of them has run for a 2nd term. 6 presidents chose not to run for re-election and a few died before they'd have a chance at re-election. We don't know how all of them would have done in re-election, but some surely were on track to lose. Even just 10/40 presidents losing is a significant percentage. It's not some "all but guaranteed" thing people keep thinking it is.

Edit: I'd also argue that it's really dumb to use an "on average" for one-term presidents as if presidents are "due" for one-term presidencies based on the time since the last one. Ignoring the contextual reasoning behind one-term presidents is a really flawed way of thinking. I mean, even winners shouldn't be looked at the same. Bush's re-election victory is far from Obama's. Bush was far from a safe incumbent, he was this close to losing in '04.

PiOverlord posted...

It's hard to imagine the Republicans winning the popular vote for quite some time, but that isn't the game we play. It's much easier to imagine the few swing states needed for the electoral college to vote that way.

Abortion bans in swing states are gonna be the end of so many Republican careers.

Tyranthraxus posted...

Abortion bans in swing states are gonna be the end of so many Republican careers.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-women-voter-registration-dobbs-20220822.html

Trump's ego won't let him stand by and just support the best GOP candidate in 2024. He's got legions of die hard supporters who probably won't even vote in the presidential election if he tries to get the GOP nomination and loses. He might be the best thing to happen to the democrats. I'm sure a ton of Republicans won't miss him too much if he unfortunately passes away in the next couple of years.

bknight posted...

I'm sure a ton of Republicans won't miss him too much if he unfortunately passes away in the next couple of years.

Dubya and Mittens would probably throw a parade tbqh.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


I dont think he will, I think hes sick of the legal attacks at this point and just wants to live his last few years in peace while scamming dumb reds out of more money by holding local appearances

Swing voters decide elections and actual moderates are still pretty salty about the roe v wade overturning that was very much so undemocratically forced upon us.

If it wasn't for that, I think Repubs would stand a chance (Biden has the charisma of a wet dishrag and a lot of people for better or worse, blame the undeniable recession we have going on rn on him) but that alone is going to fuck them over and they kinda have it coming.

Let's keep it real here: I have never met someone who is feverishly prolife other than hardcore evangelicals and evangelicals have been brainwashed to hate Dems so much they would vote Repub no matter what, so it boggles my mind why they would bother catering to them at all. Makes more sense to pretend they'll do anything about it, complain dems are standing in their way, and not lose the moderate vote while moral posturing is all it would take to keep hardcore evangelicals in their pocket.

MajesticFerret posted...

Let's keep it real here: I have never met someone who is feverishly prolife other than hardcore evangelicals and evangelicals have been brainwashed to hate Dems so much they would vote Repub no matter what, so it boggles my mind why they would bother catering to them at all. Makes more sense to pretend they'll do anything about it, complain dems are standing in their way, and not lose the moderate vote while moral posturing is all it would take to keep hardcore evangelicals in their pocket

Elected officials know how to play that game.

The problem is that they put those same evangelicals on the Supreme Court. Those people don't have to give a shit about re-election, and are free to disregard all political sense and just go full on ideologue

Got to blame the Democrats stupidity of picking unlikable candidates. No one wanted Hillary in 2008 why the fuck did they think people would want her in 2016?

Maninstagnate posted...

Got to blame the Democrats stupidity of picking unlikable candidates. No one wanted Hillary in 2008 why the fuck did they think people would want her in 2016?

she won the popular vote though

DoesntMatter posted...

she won the popular vote though

And they would have won the electoral vote too if they picked someone even marginally more likeable and decent at campaigning.

Sweeping safe, major Democrat population centers for the popular vote doesn't win the game.

DoesntMatter posted...

she won the popular vote though

Democrats and left leaning people need to realize that the popular vote doesn't matter. Trump's defeat in 2020 set the stage for state legislatures to decide who gets their state's electoral votes regardless of how their state votes.

MrAntisocial posted...

Democrats and left leaning people need to realize that the popular vote doesn't matter. Trump's defeat in 2020 set the stage for state legislatures to decide who gets their state's electoral votes regardless of how their state votes.

oh don't get me wrong, i understand full well that the popular vote doesn't matter, but saying that "no one wanted Hillary" when she won the popular vote is disingenuous at best

2024 tagline: "exactly the same as 2016 and 2020 folks! Whoever wins, we lose."

DoesntMatter posted...

oh don't get me wrong, i understand full well that the popular vote doesn't matter, but saying that "no one wanted Hillary" when she won the popular vote is disingenuous at best

It might be fair to say that the people whose votes actually matter didn't want her

VigorouslySwish posted...

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-women-voter-registration-dobbs-20220822.html

MajesticFerret posted...

Swing voters decide elections and actual moderates are still pretty salty about the roe v wade overturning that was very much so undemocratically forced upon us.

It's already having an effect on Florida.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/clarissajanlim/florida-primary-elections-abortion-rights

Women are out for blood RN.

If you got an R next to your name you better start very vocally supporting abortion rights to have a chance.

BlackBlueButts posted...

Why would people vote against their own self interests like that?

Delusions of being the exception, or thinking they can change the aspects that go against their interests. The Log Cabin Party is a great example. It's older than almost everyone on this board, yet despite all that experience, it consists entirely of shocked Pikachu.

Biden has zero charisma and is barely more likable than Hillary. He really shows that we need an age limit on elected officials. No one should be even considering running at 70+ years old, let alone freaking 80.

Still... as much as I don't like him, with Roe v Wade and what has recently unfolded, there's not much of a choice. God I hope he doesn't run.