Current Events > US intelligence reports that Russia has given the order to attack Ukraine

(+) Yeah! (+)

IndorilGawain posted...

Are you under the impression that US troops would be fighting in Ukraine

Arms sales*

*Soldiers not included.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/0/2/AAZZemAAC89y.png

any time now

fohstick posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/0/0/2/AAZZemAAC89y.png

any time now

Have the 190,000 Russian troops left the border, yet?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60451955
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/2/2/AABJX0AAC8xm.jpg

Perthboy posted...

Arms sales*

*Soldiers not included.

Why do you continue to not shut the fuck up

Oh, also:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60454795

• Rebel-held regions ask Putin to recognise them as independent
• Russian no-fly-zone in effect over Sea of Azov
• Sharp rise in ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk
• Ukraine battles against stream of Russian disinformation

They got the order yesterday. Did they start yet?

Dat_Cracka_Jax posted...

They got the order yesterday. Did they start yet?

Putin held a meeting earlier today to recognize the breakaways.

The next step is casting Ukraine as an illegal occupier of the breakaways' territory to justify an invasion.

Also worth noting that the breakaways claim much more territory than they control, and Russia is going to cast Ukraine as illegally occupying the whole lot of it

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Putin is betting on Ukraine and the rest of the world just caving immediately, like what happened with Crimea.

Questionmarktarius posted...

Putin is betting on Ukraine and the rest of the world just caving immediately, like what happened with Crimea.

It's good bet and it'll keep happening.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Man. You and all the they keep saying any day now folks must feel pretty silly right now that Putin has ordered troops into the Ukraine.

@Perthboy lmao

Can I get a TLDR on this beef?

Why does the Putman want to invade Ukraine?

Looks like they invaded

Zonbei posted...

Man. You and all the they keep saying any day now folks must feel pretty silly right now that Putin has ordered troops into the Ukraine.

It's just Ukraine.

Lot of dipshits in here should delete their posts.

Shadow Don posted...

Lot of dipshits in here should delete their posts.

Okay, internet tough guy.

Why is Russia so evil

CADE FOSTER posted...

Why is Russia so evil

A former member of the KGB has placed himself as leader for life in Russia and has on multiple occasions lamented how the loss of the Soviet Union was a great tragedy, this isn't really surprising

Zonbei posted...

Man. You and all the they keep saying any day now folks must feel pretty silly right now that Putin has ordered troops into the Ukraine.

Anybody that thinks the Russian Military isn't strong enough to take Ukraine isn't someone you should be taking seriously anyway. This isn't the Russian military of 20 or even 10 years ago. It still has problems but it's competent.

People are always like "hurr durr Chechnya and Georgia", while forgetting that Russia won those conflicts. They have a large enough manpower and equipment advantage that they can get their noses bloodied several times and still win. Hell that's almost the entirety of Russian military history for that matter.

The any day now people also seem to misunderstand how logistics work. It takes time to muster and mobilize forces and then plan to supply them in theater for extended periods. Yes, this time can be used for brinkmanship and negotiating, but it takes awhile regardless even if the intention is to invade from the beginning.

ScazarMeltex posted...

Anybody that thinks the Russian Military isn't strong enough to take Ukraine isn't someone you should be taking seriously anyway. This isn't the Russian military of 20 or even 10 years ago. It still has problems but it's competent.

People are always like "hurr durr Chechnya and Georgia", while forgetting that Russia won those conflicts. They have a large enough manpower and equipment advantage that they can get their noses bloodied several times and still win. Hell that's almost the entirety of Russian military history for that matter.

I have you marked as Smart Int. Rel. so might as well so you a question:

What do you think is going you happen here? Am I off in expecting a Russian annex of Ukrain with no pushback from the west? Do you think Biden will make good with severe sanctions?

whitelytning posted...

I have you marked as Smart Int. Rel. so might as well so you a question:

What do you think is going you happen here? Am I off in expecting a Russian annex of Ukrain with no pushback from the west? Do you think Biden will make good with severe sanctions?

I know you asked the other poster, but heres my two cents. Putin wants a buffer state like the Soviet Union had Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the rest, so I dont think theyll formally annex all of Ukraine. They may occupy for a time until their puppets can trot out a loyal military. As an aside, this is why Belarus probably wont ever be formally annexed by Putin, even though it comes up every so often.

They want to link Russia to Crimea from the North, so they could annex everything to the Dnieper (the river Kiev is on) and have loyal stooges in rump Ukraine. However, this would leave the pro-West part of Ukraine isolated from the rest. If you look at electoral maps of Ukraine from 1990 to 2014, you see the country develop into the pro-West electorate and the pro-Russia electorate. Theyre going to rig elections going forward, but it would be easier with a loyal base (although they may not be as loyal after eight years of war).

Ultimately, I think theyll annex the land linking current Russia to Crimea or get special military concessions for it, leaving Ukraine pretty close to what it is now. New Ukraine will be run like Russia, with opposition getting arrested or banned and loyal oligarchs installed (Putins early reign involved bending the Russian oligarchs to his will or replacing them like Khodorkovsky was).

I cant speak to sanctions, but I hope theyre strong. The announcement of no Swift banning isnt the best sign, but well see.

https://twitter.com/potus/status/1495911308625125380?s=21

https://youtu.be/o861Ka9TtT4

whitelytning posted...

I have you marked as Smart Int. Rel. so might as well so you a question:

What do you think is going you happen here? Am I off in expecting a Russian annex of Ukrain with no pushback from the west? Do you think Biden will make good with severe sanctions?

White Eagle posted...

I know you asked the other poster, but heres my two cents. Putin wants a buffer state like the Soviet Union had Poland, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the rest, so I dont think theyll formally annex all of Ukraine. They may occupy for a time until their puppets can trot out a loyal military. As an aside, this is why Belarus probably wont ever be formally annexed by Putin, even though it comes up every so often.

They want to link Russia to Crimea from the North, so they could annex everything to the Dnieper (the river Kiev is on) and have loyal stooges in rump Ukraine. However, this would leave the pro-West part of Ukraine isolated from the rest. If you look at electoral maps of Ukraine from 1990 to 2014, you see the country develop into the pro-West electorate and the pro-Russia electorate. Theyre going to rig elections going forward, but it would be easier with a loyal base (although they may not be as loyal after eight years of war).

Ultimately, I think theyll annex the land linking current Russia to Crimea or get special military concessions for it, leaving Ukraine pretty close to what it is now. New Ukraine will be run like Russia, with opposition getting arrested or banned and loyal oligarchs installed (Putins early reign involved bending the Russian oligarchs to his will or replacing them like Khodorkovsky was).

I cant speak to sanctions, but I hope theyre strong. The announcement of no Swift banning isnt the best sign, but well see.

I tend to agree with the second quote I posted, but I'm still not 100% sure. Buffer states aren't quite as valuable to have as they once were in the era of drone strikes and ICBMs. Especially in the face of Western Europe allowing Russia to do whatever they want for the most part, they don't really need a buffer state to defend from an invasion.

From a real politick standpoint though there are advantages to annexing enough to link to Crimea to Russia and establishing a puppet buffer state of Ukraine. With a Ukrainian run government all the repression is handled by Ukrainians. It's not some foreign occupier oppressing you so you are less likely to have to deal with insurgents fighting a foreign occupation. Instead you'll have smaller rebel groups, whom no one will blink at you massacring because they are rebels. Plus the Russians essentially get control of the pipelines through their puppet regime.

I think a lot of it depends on how things go with how Russia ends up "invading". There are three strategies available to them.

A full on invasion and occupation, which costs the most in terms of equipment, manpower, and damage to the infrastructure that Russia ostensibly wants to control. That I tend to think is most likely to lead to a puppet regime. You put in place some bootlicking Ukrainians, annex the parts you want, and then leave the puppet to clean up the mess from the war and occupation. Then help them rebuild under the guise of being a good neighbor now that your issues have been settled.

Or they could continue the strategy they have been using since they took South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 08 and are currently using in Ukraine. Prop up rebel groups, then recognize the region as "independent states" and send in troops to "restore order". Then eventually they have an election where they "vote" to join Russia. That version takes the longest amount of time and worked ok when dealing with Georgia since it wasn't directly causing problems for Europe, but eventually Europe will probably attempt to stop it. This probably ends up with Russia annexing part and then propping up a puppet in the rest.

The third option is to basically follow option 2 but put a bit of work into also destabilizing Ukraine's government to the point where it collapses under the weight of Russian interference and civilian outrage over said Government's inability to protect them, then use that as an excuse to invade and "restore order" without having to worry about organized resistance from the Ukrainian military. This is the scenario I think that most likely leads to a full annexation.

I think that regardless of what happens the US sanctions will be strong, Europe's will be initially but Europe is currently very heavily reliant on Russian Oil and Natural Gas that they could refuse to sell. So they may have to ease over time. The problem there is that Russia itself is heavily reliant on those exports and without another market to move them in would then be cutting off it's nose to spite it's face. That would basically put Russia and Europe in a game of chicken of who can survive without the resources or the money you get from selling it the longest.

If Russia is allowed to take Ukraine China def will take Taiwan you def cannot allow Ukraine to fall