Current Events > Taiwan says odds of war with China in next year is "very low"

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-odds-war-with-china-next-year-very-low-2021-10-20

TAIPEI, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The odds of war with China in the next year are "very low," a top Taiwanese security official told lawmakers on Wednesday, amid heightened tensions between Taipei and Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the island.

Taiwan has repeatedly said that it will defend itself if attacked, but wants to maintain the status quo with China even as it complains of repeated sorties by the Chinese air force in its air defence identification zone, or ADIZ.

"I think generally, within one year, the probability of war is very low," National Security Bureau Director-General Chen Ming-tong told a parliamentary defence committee meeting.

B-b-but CE told me we're right on the brink of a full scale war!

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China is our friend and not our enemy

CE blowing things out of proportion? Unusual

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China: Ok time to take back Taiwa-
Chinese soldier: (coughs)
China: Shit

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imagine getting your news from CEmen who don't leave their basements.

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I wonder what they'd say if Trump was still in office, or even Bush or Obama, because I would think all of the Republic of China's defensive plans from it's much larger mainland neighbor are based on the idea that the US will come to their aid and they just need to stave off a full on occupation until the Carrier Task Group shows up and starts throwing Hornets and Tomahawks.

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but TC, how could China go to war with Taiwan unless they're different countries???

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s0nicfan posted...

but TC, how could China go to war with Taiwan unless they're different countries???

Uh, what? They've been in a civil war for 70 years now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War

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oh wait just saw who the TC was,
another tankie.

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TrowaBarton7 posted...

Uh, what? They've been in a civil war for 70 years now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War

So how can the odds of war with China be "very low" if they're still in the middle of a civil war? Aren't they already at war then?

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s0nicfan posted...

So how can the odds of war with China be "very low" if they're still in the middle of a civil war? Aren't they already at war then?

You do know the Korean War is also still ongoing right? It's called a Frozen Conflict. Sort of like the Cold War except they're actually at war.

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Crazyman93 posted...

You do know the Korean War is also still ongoing right? It's called a Frozen Conflict. Sort of like the Cold War except they're actually at war.

You mean that ongoing conflict between the two internationally recognized countries of North and South Korea? So then this is like that, with the two countries of China and Taiwan being locked in frozen conflict?

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Crazyman93 posted...

I wonder what they'd say if Trump was still in office, or even Bush or Obama, because I would think all of the Republic of China's defensive plans from it's much larger mainland neighbor are based on the idea that the US will come to their aid and they just need to stave off a full on occupation until the Carrier Task Group shows up and starts throwing Hornets and Tomahawks.

There's no way the US or anyone else can stop China taking Taiwan if they want to take Taiwan. Unless you count 'nuclear apocalypse' as a viable method.

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s0nicfan posted...

You mean that ongoing conflict between the two internationally recognized countries of North and South Korea? So then this is like that, with the two countries of China and Taiwan being locked in frozen conflict?

In that the propaganda of both sides insists they are the sole power over the territory of both themselves and each other? Yes. But a frozen conflict can also include unrecognized states or partially recognized states. Such as say South Ossetia or Taiwan.

If you want to have a fight about Taiwan's status as a de facto independent country vs China's claim that it is a de jure part of their territory, then flat out say it. Your arguments are fucking stupid otherwise.

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Crazyman93 posted...

In that the propaganda of both sides insists they are the sole power over the territory of both themselves and each other? Yes. But a frozen conflict can also include unrecognized states or partially recognized states. Such as say South Ossetia or Taiwan.

If you want to have a fight about Taiwan's status as a de facto independent country vs China's claim that it is a de jure part of their territory, then flat out say it. Your arguments are fucking stupid otherwise.

The TC is a well known CCP shill that almost exclusively posts pro-china propaganda. Except in this case he was being lazy and didn't realize his topic sort of contradicts China's "we've always been one country" tagline. Don't bother trying to over-analyze my logic here. It's not that complicated.

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Ilishe posted...

There's no way the US or anyone else can stop China taking Taiwan if they want to take Taiwan. Unless you count 'nuclear apocalypse' as a viable method.

Taiwan's perfectly capable of making a defensive plan based off misinformation. Canada once had a defense plan that ammounted to "wait for the UK to come save us from America" for instance, meanwhile, the British Government's official stance was "yeah, we can't defend that border, good fucking luck.

And I'd also like to point out that Taiwan is not a recognized country by and large.

s0nicfan posted...

Don't bother trying to over-analyze my logic here. It's not that complicated.

You're right, it's simple and poor. If your logic holds, then in the 1860s the United States conquered a sovereign country.

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Now Fox News is crying, they really want a war with China

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Crazyman93 posted...

You're right, it's simple and poor. If your logic holds, then in the 1860s the United States conquered a sovereign country.

In your example China is the confederacy, you realize that right? Although I guess it lines up, what with the slave labor and all.

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Anyway, as far as I know, Taiwan exists as a part of 'China', but not the People's Republic of China.

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s0nicfan posted...

In your example China is the confederacy, you realize that right? Although I guess it lines up, what with the slave labor and all.

Sure, but the thing is, it doesn't really matter because the PRC is regarded as the winner of the Chinese Civil War. I'm all for saying "fuck China" but don't act like they have no right to rule the land they beat an ineffectual government out of, especially not when China's history is long periods of "everything is fine" followed by "fuck these guys" followed by a bunch of war followed by "everything is fine".

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It doesn't matter what articles TC posts, at the end of the day he's still a tankie
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Ilishe posted...

Anyway, as far as I know, Taiwan exists as a part of 'China', but not the People's Republic of China.

It's a complicated question, mostly in that the Republic of China, commonly called "Taiwan", also claims all of mainland China. Meanwhile, the PRC claims the islands that makeup Taiwan. And any attempted resolution to this will most likely just result in China going "fuck it, we have a military that could go toe to toe with the Russians or Americans, let's just take them over by force."

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TrowaBarton7 posted...

B-b-but CE told me we're right on the brink of a full scale war!

well yeah of course they wouldn't invade before they are capable of doing so

https://www.ft.com/content/212f44b9-a271-425b-a7cf-608d43d46288

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Amusingly, this situation bears a striking resemblance to the US rebellion from British rule. As the USA renounced and defeated the British in a civil war, so has the PRC done the same to the Republic of China (Taiwan). At this point they've been arguing about territory for 50 years. Like as if instead of retreating entirely the Brits had maintained control of Manhattan or something and still claimed sovereignty over the rest of the USA, while the USA claims that's ridiculous and includes the disputed land in its territory.

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Sackgurl posted...

well yeah of course they wouldn't invade before they are capable of doing so

https://www.ft.com/content/212f44b9-a271-425b-a7cf-608d43d46288

Your fucking article is behind a paywall.

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Crazyman93 posted...

Your f***ing article is behind a paywall.

here is another. though slightly older

https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade

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I mean, no shit its unlikely to happen within a year. A year is a relatively short amount of time, so war with anyone youre not currently at (active) war with is unlikely to happen within that timeframe.

That doesnt mean that China isnt a threat to Taiwan. Its literally just a token canned, non-committal political statement.

Sackgurl posted...

here is another. though slightly older

https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade

Interesting, though the big question on that, given the sheer size of the PLA, is "what's the lack of capability?" Either they have a lack of amphibious capability, or they're planning this based off the idea that America will intervene. Alternatively they want to do a blitzkrieg so there's very little resistance to them.

And to say the US wouldn't risk Armageddon over Taiwan, I'll leave you two thoughts: 1, regarding nuclear weapons, China has said they adhere to a "no first use policy". Whether you believe that or not is up to you. I'm willing to buy it since I don't think the PLA is probably the farthest behind of the Permanent UNSC members in terms of nuclear tech, but if their second strike capability is bad they may risk lying. 2, in the 1910s no one thought we'd plunge into a giant, heavily destructive war, over a tiny piss ant country. And then some Serbian shot some noble and all hell broke loose.

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Crazyman93 posted...

Interesting, though the big question on that, given the sheer size of the PLA, is "what's the lack of capability?"

i can't answer that question.

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Sackgurl posted...

i can't answer that question.

Neither can I. Maybe the DIA or CIA can, but I doubt they'll talk too much about it if they can. If China threw even 50% of their forces at Taiwan, they'd steam roll it, wouldn't be a huge boon to them to do it, but they probably could. I think they're avoiding anything that could lead to them tangling with the US before they're ready to do so. It's also the reason they're among the first to tell North Korea "hey, assholes, cut the shit out..." since they've made a promise to defend that tiny stretch of land.

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If I had to guess, itd probably just be because itd be a rough naval fight for a territory with almost no natural resources and Im sure the resultant possibility of going to war or burning bridges with other international players is a concern that makes it not really worth it.

Taiwan knows John Cena and Lebron James would destroy them if they tried to fight China.

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Kami_no_Kami posted...

If I had to guess, itd probably just be because itd be a rough naval fight for a territory with almost no natural resources and Im sure the resultant possibility of going to war or burning bridges with other international players is a concern that makes it not really worth it.

Probably yes, would the island make a good naval base, but I'm not sure how much strategic value it would have.

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