Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 377: Nonconsent of the Governed

(+) Yeah! (+)

Bye bye Cuomo you ass

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Responding to this here I guess...

Leafeon13N posted...

Can we stop buying into vaccine misinformation here.

The vaccines in no way allowed the delta variant to spread more easily in the population. Breakthrough infections, as in being able to test positive for the virus, are still relatively rare. They are still heavily disproportionate to cases in the unvaccinated population.

Here in California at least 80% of cases are among the unvaccinated with a majority of the population in the vaccinated group.

First of all, 20% cases from vaccinated individuals is pretty significant. Last I checked the vast majority of breakthrough cases are the Delta variant, and people became alarmed because they could see them rise in a relatively short span of time.

Second, you're taking what I said out of context from a population genetics perspective. It doesn't "spread faster" as in some magic superspreader event. It spreads faster relative to COVID-19 in vaccinated individuals giving it a competitive advantage which allows the Delta variant to gradually make up a greater percentage of the overall COVID population. This is why we've seen breakthrough cases ramp up gradually over the past few months - this is the Delta variant spreading. There is some data starting to suggest that Delta is overtaking COVID-19 as the main variant. And Delta has a few competitive advantages (for example, it's more infectious so it does actually "just spread faster" in a literal sense) but a major factor here is that it can better bypass immunity to covid, including from vaccinations. This is not "vaccine misinformation" this is just how basic natural selection works.

None of this is to say vaccines are bad! I didn't think I had to spell this out. The vaccines did their job by stopping COVID-19. Delta is different. The hypothetical is just me baselessly speculating to get across that normal COVID-19 could retain some advantage without vaccines. That's still a worse scenario because COVID-19 is spreading! There's a bunch of different scenarios that are worse! Vaccines are good, they prevent that, they have prevented other variants from forming, they are still effective against Delta, just less so. Vaccines did not "cause" Delta but it's dumb to deny the fact that it's spreading better because it can bypass some immunities.

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And with the flu shot, a mutation is literally enough to completely bypass it. Technically that applies to ask classic vaccines, but not all diseases are capable of mutating.
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If we didn't have vaccines we'd just have more cases of the delta variant right now.

We'd have a hell of a lot more people sick. The more contagious variant is going to gain a foothold regardless of vaccines.

We'd have more chances for more mutations.

kevwaffles posted...

And with the flu shot, a mutation is literally enough to completely bypass it. Technically that applies to ask classic vaccines, but not all diseases are capable of mutating.

You are literally the worst. Get a damn flu shot. Yearly. Everyone should.

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Vaccines did not "cause" Delta but it's dumb to deny the fact that it's spreading better because it can bypass some immunities.

This is not a fact.

it's spreading because it's more contagious

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Leafeon13N posted...

You are literally the worst. Get a damn flu shot. Yearly. Everyone should.

My track record for getting the flu is literally worse with the flu shot than without. But yeah I'm the worst for not wanting to pay for that privilege.
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kevwaffles posted...

My track record for getting the flu is literally worse with the flu shot than without. But yeah I'm the worst for not wanting to pay for that privilege.

The smallest of smallest sample sizes/anecdotal evidence.

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kevwaffles posted...

Edit: And before you put more words in people's mouth, no I'm not saying I got sick from the flu shot.

I'm not the one spewing dumb/wrong information here, why would I do that.

You got a strain of the flu that beat the years flu shot(The shot is changed yearly) or had a breakthrough infection, it happens. The flu shot gave you no protection from that particular strain and you got sick. How sick you got had nothing to do with your vaccine.

You attempting to extrapolate that to a blanket effectiveness of the vaccine is just you thinking you are somehow smarter than the doctors/scientists/whatever that work on this shit yearly so that hundreds of thousands of people dont die every year.

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Oh God I want to prioritize the flu shots for at risk groups. I'm such a fucking monster.
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You are inconsiderate and naive. If you want to take that as being a monster, be my guest.

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And to be clear, these vaccines typically don't work as well(Or at all, in some cases) for those high risk groups. People in normal/low risk have to be the ones to protect the high risk in any scenario.

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To clarify on the mutations, viruses are not smart, mutation is not somehow smart. They do not mutate for the purpose of beating vaccinations, they mutate -randomly-. The greatest chance for them to beat the vaccines is for the virus to have the most chances to mutate. The greatest way to reduce mutation is to reduce cases, which these vaccines do.

Without vaccination, the viruses would have more chances to mutate. The greatest threat to vaccine effectiveness is in fact more cases, not a prevalence of vaccinated population.

This might not be true in a world where herd immunity is possible, but we know that reinfection from "natural" immunity is very much possible, particularly with these variants. Delta didn't form because of vaccinated populations, Delta variant has gained a foothold because it was significantly more contagious(and spread like wildfire in unvaccinated areas).

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I get the flu shot yearly. A few years back I got the flu, and it was an absolutely miserable 16 or so hours. If I was an idiot who didnt get the flu shot it would have been a LOT worse.

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Leafeon13N posted...

This is not a fact.

So it's not any better at causing breakthrough cases than COVID-19? I don't understand what your problem is.

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RaidenGarai posted...

I get the flu shot yearly. A few years back I got the flu, and it was an absolutely miserable 16 or so hours. If I was an idiot who didnt get the flu shot it would have been a LOT worse.

The flu shot is an innoculation cocktail of 3-4 different strains. Unlike the mRNA based vaccine for Covid, if you get the flu after the flu shot the overwhelming odds are it's a different strain you're completely unprotected from.
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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

So it's not any better at causing breakthrough cases than COVID-19? I don't understand what your problem is.

It would spread better without immunities. Saying it is spreading better because we have immunities is completely wrong.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

So it's not any better at causing breakthrough cases than COVID-19? I don't understand what your problem is.

What you're saying has literally nothing to do with the vaccine, so he's probably questioning why you're bringing up the vaccine at all when you're trying to make your argument, because all it does is come off like you're arguing the vaccine in some way aids delta spreading.

Delta would be more contagious than previous variations with or without the vaccine. If more people had gotten vaccinated more quickly, we could have possibly avoided Delta. If more people get vaccinated quickly now, we can likely avoid other variations.

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red13n posted...

It would spread better without immunities. Saying it is spreading better because we have immunities is completely wrong.

Again, I was comparing to normal Covid-19 and how Delta had been able to overtake it. And that's not what I meant. If we have zero immunities then we'd have more cases of ALL variants and the original and therefore Delta might no longer be the most prevalent. Didn't think that needed spelled put either.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Again, I was comparing to normal Covid-19 and how Delta had been able to overtake it. And that's not what I meant. If we have zero immunities then we'd have more cases of ALL variants and the original and therefore Delta might no longer be the most prevalent. Didn't think that needed spelled put either.

This is the part that is wrong. We'd just have more Delta if we didn't have vaccines.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

If we have zero immunities then we'd have more cases of ALL variants and the original and therefore Delta might no longer be the most prevalent. Didn't think that needed spelled put either

Your logic kinda falls apart, here. For this to be true, it'd have to mean Delta exists because vaccines blocked the others, and therefore it mutated in response, which is not what happens. Delta becomes the most prevalent either way because it's the most contagious.

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red13n posted...

This is the part that is wrong. We'd just have more Delta if we didn't have vaccines.

HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

If we have zero immunities then we'd have more cases of ALL variants

Bruh
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StealThisSheen posted...

Your logic kinda falls apart, here. For this to be true, it'd have to mean Delta exists because vaccines blocked the others, and therefore it mutated in response, which is not what happens. Delta becomes the most prevalent either way because it's the most contagious.

Bro I literally started this whole thing saying the exact opposite. You are both willfully misunderstanding me at this point. I regret even mentioning an offhand hypothetical.

If we had NO IMMUNITY that would mean normal-ass COVID would spread WAY more. If normal COVID spreads more, it could get to the point where Delta is not a major concern, even with it being more infectious, because there would already be so much of the others around. Hence speaking in RELATIVE terms. Obviously this is very far removed from what actually happened.

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To assign arbitrary numbers to demonstrate what you're saying:

No vaccine: 10,000,000 new cases per day, 1,000,000 of those are Delta

With vaccine: 100,000 new cases per day, 90,000 of those are Delta

The percentage of Delta cases compared to all Covid cases goes up, but total cases are still clearly going down based on those numbers.
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There's a news van at the elementary school right by my parents' house. It's doing a news story on "breakout of cases in the classroom".

I'm slated to teach a packed class of college students in just over a week... this is gonna be such a fucking mess.

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kevwaffles posted...

To assign arbitrary numbers to demonstrate what you're saying:

No vaccine: 10,000,000 new cases per day, 1,000,000 of those are Delta

With vaccine: 100,000 new cases per day, 90,000 of those are Delta

The percentage of Delta cases compared to all Covid cases goes up, but total cases are still clearly going down based on those numbers.

Let's say these numbers are accurate.

It is doing harm to be pedantic about it and phrase anything in a way that will discourage people from getting the vaccine regardless of how technically correct you are when you preface it.

The only headline should be "vaccines are fantastic and cases are significantly low among vaccinated" instead of "vaccine has resulted in a higher percentage of new delta variant cases"

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

Let's say these numbers are accurate.

It is doing harm to be pedantic about it and phrase anything in a way that will discourage people from getting the vaccine regardless of how technically correct you are when you preface it.

The only headline should be "vaccines are fantastic and cases are significantly low among vaccinated" instead of "vaccine has resulted in a higher percentage of new delta variant cases"

I mean, sure?

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

It is doing harm to be pedantic about it and phrase anything in a way that will discourage people from getting the vaccine regardless of how technically correct you are when you preface it.

I'm definitely not trying to do this so sorry if it came across that way. and I was in fact piggybacking off a pedantic and technical post and had hoped that people would take that into context. But I should know better than to throw out half-formed hypotheticals on a very touchy subject.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Bro I literally started this whole thing saying the exact opposite. You are both willfully misunderstanding me at this point. I regret even mentioning an offhand hypothetical.

If we had NO IMMUNITY that would mean normal-ass COVID would spread WAY more. If normal COVID spreads more, it could get to the point where Delta is not a major concern, even with it being more infectious, because there would already be so much of the others around. Hence speaking in RELATIVE terms. Obviously this is very far removed from what actually happened.

All I'm saying is when you word an argument like this, literally all it does is give ammo to arguments like "Well then see we'd have more of the less bad one and less of the more bad one if we weren't vaccinated. Vaccines made it worse!" and we really, really need to avoid that.

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I mean, this is the contest board. I'm sure we all remember early contests where people would say "Mario is catching up" when the percentage gap closed but the vote gap got larger. It's kind of like that.

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In other news, remember that stock Rand Paul's wife bought that he didn't disclose for like 16 months and it looked really, really bad?

It's literally the only stock in an individual company they've purchased in a decade.

So yes, it's exactly how it looks.

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I have an update on this that plum asked for:

plum posted | #461 last topic

These headlines are often clickbait because senators trade stocks all the time. I would want to see if it was part of a larger stock purchase etc

https://twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/1425977681850638337

That was the only time in 10 years that Paul or his wife purchased shares in an individual stock.

CNBC reports...

Gilead is the first and only individual stock that the lawmaker has reported he or his wife buying or selling during his 10 years in the Senate.

Edit: dammit beat. i'll leave it cuz it has the link though

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xp1337 posted...

Edit: dammit beat. i'll leave it cuz it has the link though

You complete me

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Also, my eyes have glazed over most of this vaccine fight being had here, but in COVID news SCOTUS refused to take up a challenge against Indiana University's vaccine mandate.

7th Circuit had previously upheld the mandate (because SCOTUS already okayed states mandating vaccines back in 1905) but it got challenged to SCOTUS anyway. The kicker? It was Barrett who was responsible for handling it and she rejected the challenge.

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StealThisSheen posted...

All I'm saying is when you word an argument like this, literally all it does is give ammo to arguments like "Well then see we'd have more of the less bad one and less of the more bad one if we weren't vaccinated. Vaccines made it worse!" and we really, really need to avoid that.

I mean I'll cop to communicating poorly but misinformation is also given ammo when people are too afraid of what the opposition will think to frankly discuss things so, I dunno. It's nuanced.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I mean I'll cop to communicating poorly but misinformation is also given ammo when people are too afraid of what the opposition will think to frankly discuss things so, I dunno. It's nuanced.

You spouted the same nonsense that has been driving the anti-vaxxer narrative this last week.

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Not the exactly same, red. But we've covered the pedantry of the argument so I think we can all move on now.

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It is pretty close. It also holds no significant purpose unless you want to delve into it and show that its wrong and vaccinations are good.

Less vaccinations will results in more cases, more deaths, more mutations, and less effective vaccines.

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Which has been sufficiently covered now. So now that we're on the same page we can turn the page.

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red13n posted...

It is pretty close. It also holds no significant purpose unless you want to delve into it and show that its wrong and vaccinations are good.

Literally did that and you ignored it. Glad to put this topic to rest though.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

Literally did that and you ignored it. Glad to put this topic to rest though.

No, you didn't. You always had this weird qualifier that would be almost there but also make it horribly wrong.

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I know this is weird coming from me

But holy crap drop it already

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StealThisSheen posted...

I know this is weird coming from me

But holy crap drop it already

I was willing to let it be but he added some dumb comment like I was ignoring him which I was not. If you want something dropped don't add qualifiers, just drop it.

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To be more clear, everyone knows I have absolutely no problem arguing all day. But if you want to drop something I'll respectfully drop it. But if you want to drop it, that is your choice and you need to leave it at that, not add some dumb high and mighty comment because my brain will absolutely take that as you not dropping it.

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red13n posted...

To be more clear, everyone knows I have absolutely no problem arguing all day. But if you want to drop something I'll respectfully drop it. But if you want to drop it, that is your choice and you need to leave it at that, not add some dumb high and mighty comment because my brain will absolutely take that as you not dropping it.

Red you literally did that two fucking times in a row (now four times) before I did it once (now twice). I'm allowed to retort, get the hell over yourself. I get it, we're both brain poisoned, let's just agree to go touch grass.

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Thats my point. You know I'm hardheaded. I'm not dropping it unless its dropped unconditionally. Its not my will to drop it(I never drop anything, I'm stubborn as fuck), but I'll respect yours. But if you want to drop it, drop it.

Anyway, we're good.

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Bop it

Twist it

Pull it

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When did the delta variant first emerge? I have tried googling and am getting different answers. I have gotten December 2020, January 2021 and April 2021

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crazyisgood posted...

When did the delta variant first emerge? I have tried googling and am getting different answers. I have gotten December 2020, January 2021 and April 2021

December in India

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StealThisSheen posted...

I know this is weird coming from me

But holy crap drop it already

coming from you, this is quite weird, yes >_>

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