Current Events > If something with a 25 percent chance happens 4 times.

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AzurexNightmare
12/08/20 3:35:16 AM
#1:


If it doesn't happen the first 3 times it will ONE HUNDRED PERCENT happen on the fourth try.

Who has seen this dumb shit being said on the internet LMAO

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Wii_Shaker
12/08/20 3:38:50 AM
#2:


No. The odds are that each time there is a 25% chance it will happen.

Even if the odds are in your favor, nothing is guaranteed.

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Lost_All_Senses
12/08/20 3:40:29 AM
#3:


I believe people believe anything now

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#4
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Middle hope
12/08/20 3:41:50 AM
#5:


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Lokison
12/08/20 3:45:02 AM
#6:


AzurexNightmare posted...
If it doesn't happen the first 3 times it will ONE HUNDRED PERCENT happen on the fourth try.

Who has seen this dumb shit being said on the internet LMAO
My brother used to spout that crap about WoW. "You have a 20% chance, so one out of every 5 hits will do x". No, RNG doesnt work like that.

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TrueSephir0th
12/08/20 3:47:04 AM
#7:


bullshit
everything is a 50/50 chance
it either will or wont
thats it
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Medussa
12/08/20 3:47:42 AM
#8:


our education system is criminally negligent.

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gunplagirl
12/08/20 3:48:25 AM
#9:


TrueSephir0th posted...
bullshit
everything is a 50/50 chance
it either will or wont
thats it
Nah it's 33.33%
Either it can or can't happen
And then either it will or it won't

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TrueSephir0th
12/08/20 3:49:28 AM
#10:


the possibilities are 1 and 2
50/50

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Nazanir
12/08/20 3:56:35 AM
#11:


TrueSephir0th posted...
bullshit
everything is a 50/50 chance
it either will or wont
thats it
Guess I will win the lottery then with my next ticket by that logic.

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#12
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Jabodie
12/08/20 3:57:48 AM
#13:


Everyday I'm thankful I'm alive. It was a 50/50 shot I would die every day of my life.

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TrueSephir0th
12/08/20 3:58:53 AM
#14:


BettyB0op08 posted...
Actually that's 100% and 0%. Because there's only one thing that will happen. We just don't know which until it happens.
i like that even more

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IXI_Fission_IXI
12/08/20 4:00:25 AM
#15:


Has no one here played XCOM?
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Jabodie
12/08/20 4:02:39 AM
#16:


IXI_Fission_IXI posted...
Has no one here played XCOM?
Well XCOM 2 cheats in the player's favor. Idk about the others though.

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Frogles
12/08/20 4:03:10 AM
#17:


Lokison posted...
My brother used to spout that crap about WoW. "You have a 20% chance, so one out of every 5 hits will do x". No, RNG doesnt work like that.

maybe it did in that game? i know league of legends handles critical hits that way so it could actually be true for a number of other video games.


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Questionmarktarius
12/08/20 4:10:14 AM
#18:


Frogles posted...
i know league of legends handles critical hits that way so it could actually be true for a number of other video games.
That's a 20% rate, or occurrence. Deterministic instead of probabilistic.
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Eevee-Trainer
12/08/20 4:17:10 AM
#19:


Frogles posted...
maybe it did in that game? i know league of legends handles critical hits that way so it could actually be true for a number of other video games.
I know Legend of Zelda (the first one) one would assume enemy drops are random altogether. While the chance is random, what is dropped is not: it depends on the "group" the enemy falls into and how many kills you've gotten mod 10.



But yeah, "1 in X chance" only means it will happen 1 time in X tries, on average, as we consider infinitely many identical trials and all that.

Though I also feel like whenever people say "X times will do it," a good chunk are just implying "on average" as well, but maybe I'm biased and am the only one assuming that.

(We could also get into a discussion of how most RNG isn't *truly* random in games but I imagine that would be pedantic.)

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Nazanir
12/08/20 5:14:00 AM
#20:


IXI_Fission_IXI posted...
Has no one here played XCOM?
That's even worse, if you have a 95% chance to hit, you have a 100% chance to miss.

I don't think that game understands percentages.

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