Current Events > Been predicting a Trump win the entire race

(+) Yeah! (+)

I had some hope he would get upended at the beginning of October, his bad debate and corona, but I'm just not feeling that today. Mainly, I remembered the "grab them by the *****" tape, and how in terms of optics that was way worse than either of his major issues this past month, yet he still won.

Otherwise, this entire election cycle, and honestly since 2016, I've held that Trump will win. 2016 was an eight year race. People keep saying this is the most important election ever, but sorry, it isn't, that was four years ago. I think a lot of those people saying that weren't paying as much attention then and are trying to make up for it now, but it is too late.

On top of that, Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary. People say he is less hated, which is true, but that's a result of him being weak. The greater their strengths, the greater their weaknesses. Hillary was like Trump, garnered a lot of hate, but a lot of support. No one is passionate about Biden in that same way. Basically none of his supporters have ay kind of deep love for him, nor do his detractors truly hate him, they see him more as a laughing stock compared to Hillary.

On top of that, these past few years of the Russian Collusion story falling apart, and him not being able to be removed for obstruction, and it just looks bad for that side. I think Trump has this.

That's my prediction. Of course, won't bother me if he doesn't. I voted today, and not for Trump.

I called it right in July 2016 last time. This one is down to the wire and I still don't know.

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K

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The Russian collusion story didn't fall apart at all. Republicans in the senate just decided not to do anything about it. The Republican senate intelligance report detailed that there were ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

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tommybel89 posted...

I called it right in July 2016 last time. This one is down to the wire and I still don't know.

Well, same thing happened to me last time, where I was saying Trump the whole time until the October surprise. After the pussy tape, I was like "He's lost it." but then at election day I was thinking he had it again, and low and behold he did. These October surprises always slip me up, it doesn't seem like they make a big difference.

One people bring up is the Comey laptop thing at the end of October 2016 saying that was a reason she lost, but honestly I don't think that made a difference at all. No Clinton supporters said to themselves "Well, I was gonna vote Clinton, but Comey said he's still looking at the laptop a week before the election, so I can't!"

I'll like if the election is like a football game and it comes down to the last vote and one or the other has to make a 50yd FG for the win.

I mean like what if it's like 49% - 49% and there is one last dude to cast a vote?

Or what if it ends in a tie and Trump and Biden has to share the job?

The White House will become the The Mad House.

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Irony posted...

K

It's not okay.

CableZL posted...

The Russian collusion story didn't fall apart at all. Republicans in the senate just decided not to do anything about it. The Republican senate intelligance report detailed that there were ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Yes, literally half the nation could see it, and still nothing happened. It did fall apart. After that, they proved Trump obstructed justice trying to hide it, yet we still couldn't remove him. In terms of optics, how it looks and feels, those were failures. Those things should have been the end of him. The pussy tape should have been the end. None of that could stop him, and he hasn't had anything as bad as those things during 2020, which is why I think he will still win.

The Russian dossier on Trump was a shaky play if this article is to be believed. In before "this isn't mainstream news!". Yeah, I get that. But why else did the collusion story vanish? The whole dang system and the high ups at both parties want him gone.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/how-russia-gate-transformed-from-taking-down-trump-to-stifling-dissent/235138/

I am not trying to be confrontational. I just think that independent media asks interesting questions that the mainstream glosses over.

Stay safe today folks!

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JimmyFraska posted...

Yes, literally half the nation could see it, and still nothing happened. It did fall apart. After that, they proved Trump obstructed justice trying to hide it, yet we still couldn't remove him. In terms of optics, how it looks and feels, those were failures. Those things should have been the end of him. The pussy tape should have been the end. None of that could stop him, and he hasn't had anything as bad as those things during 2020, which is why I think he will still win.

I think the big difference this time is that people know what a Trump presidency looks like now. So hopefully that's the difference.

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You've made the claim that Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary before, but it's not true. One need only look at their respective primary performances to know that.
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JimmyFraska posted...

Yes, literally half the nation could see it, and still nothing happened. It did fall apart. After that, they proved Trump obstructed justice trying to hide it, yet we still couldn't remove him. In terms of optics, how it looks and feels, those were failures. Those things should have been the end of him. The p**** tape should have been the end. None of that could stop him, and he hasn't had anything as bad as those things during 2020, which is why I think he will still win.

IMO, there's an important distinction between the story falling apart and the story having merit and people just deciding to do nothing about it. The former suggests the entire effort was a hoax.

Also, I would argue that Trump on tape lying about COVID-19 is pretty bad.

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tommybel89 posted...

I called it right in July 2016 last time. This one is down to the wire and I still don't know.

That's called a "lucky guess". The deciding factor was the Comey letter and you had no way of knowing about that back then.

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JimmyFraska posted...

I had some hope he would get upended at the beginning of October, his bad debate and corona, but I'm just not feeling that today. Mainly, I remembered the "grab them by the *****" tape, and how in terms of optics that was way worse than either of his major issues this past month, yet he still won.

You think the grab em tape was a worse issue than Covid? I mean, thats nearly a quarter million Americans dead vs Trump being Trump.

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The fact that nothing came of the Russia and subsequent investigations is a testiment to how corrupt the current republican party is.

Framing it in any other way is misleading.

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VitalGetPrank posted...

That's called a "lucky guess". The deciding factor was the Comey letter and you had no way of knowing about that back then.

No the guess was just based on the enthusiasm surrounding him and his giant crowds. Hillary had to drag people kicking and screaming to her small rallies. Today he's pulling in 5 arena sized crowds in 4 DIFFERENT STATES while Biden is chilling in Wilmington to do one rally.

That was my metric for last election. But this time with the high numbers of early votes, I don't know how many of those are Biden votes. And yet again, the Trump crowd is much more fervent than the Dem crowd.

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CableZL posted...

The Republican senate intelligance report detailed that there were ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Why is that a problem though? The U.S. has strong ties to countries like England, Saudi Arabia, and Israel as well. Is that collusion? The U.S. having ties to Russia sounds like a plus to me, not a minus.


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meralonne posted...

You think the grab em tape was a worse issue than Covid? I mean, thats nearly a quarter million Americans dead vs Trump being Trump.

Obviously 200,000 deaths are worse. But I'm not talking about morals or ethics or what is good or bad, I'm talking about perception. The tape, with the way Trump described it, literally gave you a visual of him sexually assaulting women.

It's hard for any one person to even imagine 200,000 people, 200,000 bodies. It's almost impossible without aid I'm sure, unless you have a very special brain. It's just too much. But the visual of Trump sexually assaulting women, even just one woman? That is more powerful than trying to imagine all the bodies in the world.

It's personal, disgusting, strong visual. But 200,000 dead bodies? Eh, we've all seen dead bodies in movies and in documentaries and pictures, and as I said that number is so big, we basically just end up imagining a bunch of dead people. The visual impact is not the same. And that directly goes to the emotional impact.

When I use my brain and logic, and when anyone does, obviously the 200,000 dead people are worse. But we aren't creatures who make decisions based on our logic, we make them based on emotion. That's why the pussy tape is more powerful.

COVxy posted...

The fact that nothing came of the Russia and subsequent investigations is a testiment to how corrupt the current republican party is.

Correct. And a testament to the fact that the Democrats, and by extension our system of government, failed to stop these corrupt people.

COVxy posted...

Framing it in any other way is misleading.

The way I framed it is not contradictory to what you said, and it's not misleading. I'm talking about how the average set of people who don't closely follow politics or news, would feel about the story just on face value.

The US has done simulation testing for the election jointly with Lockheed Martin and Israeli tech companies in the months leading up to this election. Some of the stuff they've toyed with is terrorist scenarios and also psychological manipulation and hacking of computers, traffic lights and polling stations. Oh and another fun thing in the playbook is to just blame the manipulation on Russia, Iran, and China.

That ain't scary at all.

https://www.mintpressnews.com/cybereason-israel-tech-firm-doomsday-election-simulations/263886/

It's a very long read, but there are enough passages in there that should give you the willies.

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VitalGetPrank posted...

That's called a "lucky guess". The deciding factor was the Comey letter and you had no way of knowing about that back then.

To quote my comment before yours here in the topic:

JimmyFraska posted...

One people bring up is the Comey laptop thing at the end of October 2016 saying that was a reason she lost, but honestly I don't think that made a difference at all. No Clinton supporters said to themselves "Well, I was gonna vote Clinton, but Comey said he's still looking at the laptop a week before the election, so I can't!"

There were literally zero Clinton supporters who decided to vote against her because of the Comey letter that close to election day. That's Republican propaganda.

EventualDecline posted...

Why is that a problem though? The U.S. has strong ties to countries like England, Saudi Arabia, and Israel as well. Is that collusion? The U.S. having ties to Russia sounds like a plus to me, not a minus.

Because it's currently not their side in power.

Some people rather us be rival enemies with them unless it's their side wanting to be friends.

Even they are willing to risk nuclear hellfire on everyone.


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tommybel89 posted...

The US has done simulation testing for the election jointly with Lockheed Martin and Israeli tech companies

Sounds like collusion, and collusion is pretty serious. Has anyone started an investigation?


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first Exit Polls in 3 minutes

Zikten posted...

first Exit Polls in 3 minutes

@Zikten you know the best place to follow that for immediate updates?

I'm just watching CNN on tv

they said 3 minutes but now they still haven't actually shown it

Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.

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EventualDecline posted...

Sounds like collusion, and collusion is pretty serious. Has anyone started an investigation?

It looks like in the link I provided, there's no mainstream mention of these things. But there is a link to the security firm that did the simulation test.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6548629-Operation-Blackout-Wrap-Up-Report-November-2019.html

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DarkRoast posted...

Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.

@DarkRoast Having a good night?

Antifar posted...

You've made the claim that Biden is a weaker candidate than Hillary before, but it's not true. One need only look at their respective primary performances to know that.

@Antifar What are your current opinions on Biden's strengths

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SevenTenths posted...

I'm holding to the prediction.

Another fun but LONG article. This election scenario (or conditions close to it) have been simulated and think tanked. The Wikipedia article for 'Transition Integrity Project' has article citations to NY Times, The Atlantic, Boston Globe, etc.

https://bit.ly/2I4Y2yt

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So, I highly suspect Nevada's mail ins will go Biden. That being said, I will still hold to there being another Trump term potentially by Supreme Court shenanigans regarding mail ins. Not saying that is right, but I think that's what will happen. This will definitely be the most contested election of all time.

But, my prediction in this topic was moreso regarding there being an obvious electorate win, so in that way, if people want to say I was wrong once Biden gets Nevada, I will concede to that and take it. Good game.