Current Events > Let's talk feelings: I feel like Trump is still going to win

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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 1:37:35 PM
#1:


So, I just want to talk about feelings, rather than facts. Because I think America has proven, feelings matter more than facts in terms of convincing people to make a decision. Obviously facts are what really matter in terms of affecting reality, but feelings are what people decide on. So not even what's morally or politically right, but more what you feel is going to happen based on the psyche of the nation. So while we can disagree, there's no need for any real intense arguments or accusations in this topic. That's what all the other topics are for, that's not what this one is about.

I feel like Trump is still going to win. Take for instance, Biden's campaign manager believes the polls are far closer than the huge lead Biden currently has. He believes it actually is under 10 points:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521151-biden-campaign-manager-race-is-far-closer-than-experts-say

If the Biden campaign manager is correct, could these far too positive polls actually be negative to Biden, making potential voters feel they don't have to get out? Maybe, maybe not.

I think in general, Trump is a far more powerful orator/manipulator/persuader than Biden. Biden has a very likeable prescence, when he talks he has a very trustworthy persona. But Trump feels more like "Okay I'm in charge and I know what to do". There's just a bit more power and confidence in his persona. Which I think is more powerful than the "likeable uncle/grandpa" vibe Biden has.

But I also still feel and predict the Trump win because of this: Trump's biggest problem at this point in the race in 2016 was the "Grab 'em by the p****" leaked tape.

Right now, his biggest problem is covid, the hundreds of thousands of deaths, and it even being so bad that it got to him and the whole White House. Lagging not far behind, was his below par debate performance.

However, Kamala Harris's campaign, who we can be assured was taking every precaution, also got covid. That takes a little steam out of the White House covid stuff.

But, talkin about feelings, there is this: As bad as 200,000 deaths and the President's family getting covid, I don't feel that looks as bad as "grab em by the p****". That leaked tape wasn't just him saying something bad, it put a visual in your head of him assaulting women. It was as bad as an October surprise can be. In fact it's the worst one ever.

Now factually, the hundreds of thousands of covid deaths are obviously much worse. But in terms of feelings, that number which is hard to visualize, is not as powerful as the image of Trump assaulting a woman. Trump still won then.

This, on top of the fact that RUssia collusion fell through, the impeachment couldn't get him removed.... I don't things feel good for the Democrats.

This final debate might not be important being so close to election, but if Trump has an even halfway decent performance better than last time, I think it's basically a guarantee he is going to win.

I know CE is mostly Biden leaning. That's fine. I'm not a Trump supporter. But this topic isn't really about which one we think is right morally/politically like all the other topics. This is purely about the feeling of who is going to win.
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#2
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 1:41:44 PM
#3:


Crash posted...
Trust your feelings; you know them to be true.
I can feel your anger... it gives you focus, makes you stronger
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#4
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 1:43:12 PM
#5:


-l___________l- posted...
Yes, I would definitely be wary of the polls etc., but at the same time mail-in voting is making it much easier for Democrats to vote. To me it feels like a toss-up; I definitely think Biden has a good chance of winning but so does Trump.
Yeah I'd agree with this, it feels more like a coinflip than ever. But I don't think it's just in the bag for Biden like a lot of the media is pushing currently
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Mezcla
10/17/20 1:43:31 PM
#6:


well then go out there and vote

quit your belly aching

DO SOMETHING


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Sig
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KStateKing17
10/17/20 1:44:25 PM
#7:


I'm not counting out Trump at all. I think Biden has a very good chance though. I don't predict the third party votes being as high as 2016, and I don't think Sanders and Harambe will take many votes either.

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The 17th King of the State of K
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 1:45:50 PM
#8:


Mezcla posted...
well then go out there and vote

quit your belly aching

DO SOMETHING
I'm not belly aching, I was just having fun thinking about this. This isn't a complaint or even a proper warning, more just me having fun feeling this out
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Antifar
10/17/20 1:46:43 PM
#9:


People still remember the pussy tape in addition to Trump's failure as president. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Additionally, a take that focuses on Trump's similarities to four years ago should reckon with the differences of his opponents. Biden is significantly more popular than Hillary, notwithstanding any October surprises against Trump.
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kin to all that throbs
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 1:52:48 PM
#10:


Antifar posted...
People still remember the pussy tape in addition to Trump's failure as president. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Additionally, a take that focuses on Trump's similarities to four years ago should reckon with the differences of his opponents. Biden is significantly more popular than Hillary, notwithstanding any October surprises against Trump.
Yes, but it's been diminished. You don't see the news talking about Access Hollywood, maybe once in a blue moon these days.

Biden is more popular, only because he is less polarizing than Hillary. But by that same coin, he is actually much weaker than her. Like Trump, Hillary had a very strong personality, and did things that made people either love her or hate her. Biden is a nice guy, but he rides the fence. Very few people absolutely love Biden, and very few have vehement hatred of him. And IMO being a woman was a stronger asset than Biden being an old white guy.

Hillary was the stronger candidate, even having more people that hated her. As I said, more like Trump in that way. So you kinda have to think on, is having a weaker nuetral candidate that people hate less, better than having a strong candidate people hate more?
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Antifar
10/17/20 1:57:55 PM
#11:


JimmyFraska posted...
Hillary was the stronger candidate, even having more people that hated her.

This is a very strange definition of strong. The amount of people who disliked Hillary and viewed her unfavorably (even among Democrats) is very much a factor in the people who chose not to vote for her. That Biden doesn't generate antipathy in the same was is only in his favor.

In the aftermath of the pussy tape in 2016, Clinton's polling average peaked at 45.8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

The pussy tape may have put people off from Trump, but they still weren't set on Hillary. Comparatively, Biden is at 52.4 on the same date four years later (five days closer to the election)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

There are fewer undecided voters in large part because people don't mind Biden.
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kin to all that throbs
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 2:06:26 PM
#12:


I think in general, the greater your strength, the greater your weakness. That's how it works for Trump and Hillary. So like I said, Biden has less weakness but by that also less strength. We'll see what pans out, I think it's not as good for him. Because basically the Dems are relying on people hating Trump rather than having a great candidate. There's not another Barack available unfortunately. In terms of persuasion, he was another master.
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Relient_K
10/17/20 2:08:49 PM
#13:


I'm concerned that his cheating will be successful. Theres been so much of it, a lot of which will not be caught or stopped.

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We all ate the biscuits, Fighter. We can all see through time. [ER]
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monkmith
10/17/20 2:09:23 PM
#14:


i feel like trumps going to win because he's actively packing the SC and his party is setting up voter fraud situations so he can contest ballots in states he loses and have the SC throw them out.

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Taarsidath-an halsaam.
Quando il gioco e finito, il re e il pedone vanno nella stessa scatola
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UnholyMudcrab
10/17/20 2:11:17 PM
#15:


The only way Trump wins at this point is by severe cheating or by an unprecedented polling error.
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 2:13:18 PM
#16:


What if he doesn't cheat though? What if Biden's campaign manager is right, that the voting is close within single digits? If the Biden campaign manager is correct, it doesn't sound to me like he would need to cheat to win
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Machete
10/17/20 2:13:50 PM
#17:


What's "feelings," tc?
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Who can @ Mention me? -Nobody-
"the final thing that set the mods off was a picture of two lions having sex." -boxington
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 2:15:12 PM
#18:


Machete posted...
What's "feelings," tc?
I guess I'm referring to like, instinct, or your gut. What is your gut telling you. Not necessarily about how you feel personally, but about how you feel about what everyone else will do
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Relient_K
10/17/20 2:15:43 PM
#19:


JimmyFraska posted...
What if he doesn't cheat though? What if Biden's campaign manager is right, that the voting is close within single digits? If the Biden campaign manager is correct, it doesn't sound to me like he would need to cheat to win

He literally is cheating and has been caught cheating in various ways over the past several weeks. Voter suppression is cheating. Sending invalid ballots to democratic voters is cheating. Destroying the post office during a pandemic so that those who are smart enough to vote that way cant is cheating.

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We all ate the biscuits, Fighter. We can all see through time. [ER]
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Broseph_Stalin
10/17/20 2:17:46 PM
#20:


JimmyFraska posted...
He believes it actually is under 10 points:

wow great news for Trump!!!!!
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Endgame
10/17/20 2:26:45 PM
#21:


Of course you do.

Trump is doing what worked for him in 2016. AND cheating.

Democrats are doing what DIDN'T work for them in 2016. Now with who is perhaps the worst major party nominee in the history of the nation.

Everyone who voted for Biden over Bernie in the primaries voted for Trump.
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I may not agree with what you have to say, but I will fight to the death for my right to fight you to the death. -Stephen Colbert
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#22
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monkmith
10/17/20 2:30:18 PM
#23:


Endgame posted...
Of course you do.

Trump is doing what worked for him in 2016. AND cheating.

Democrats are doing what DIDN'T work for them in 2016. Now with who is perhaps the worst major party nominee in the history of the nation.

Everyone who voted for Biden over Bernie in the primaries voted for Trump.
its cute you think biden is more polarizing a politician then bernie is.

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Taarsidath-an halsaam.
Quando il gioco e finito, il re e il pedone vanno nella stessa scatola
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Fenrimis
10/17/20 2:31:18 PM
#24:


I understand what you're stating TC. I felt after impeachment there was a strong chance that he was gonna get reelected but I thought the COVID handling was poor on his part. Not the actual measures to curb COVID but more-so how he was talking about it. I also felt as someone that is super law and order that he did a poor job of addressing the riots initially - he preaches action but felt his actions were delayed initially.

I'm really feeling 50/50 right now. I thought Hillary was gonna win in a landslide like it was all we ever heard about on TV or the news which mirrors how its going right now.

And as for my personal life my friends that liked Obama like Trump but my parents who are occasionally racist HATE trump with vitrol in their heart. Everything feels flipped on TV vs my personal life. I'm just waiting for my PS5 tbh fuck the election.

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Wave.
PSN: WaveyyyA
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Damn_Underscore
10/17/20 2:33:35 PM
#25:


Talking about feelings, as time goes on it feels more and more likely that Biden will win by a decent margin TBH. Unless Trump has something he's waiting to pull out of his butt on November 1st or something, but that seems like wishful thinking from Trump supporters.

Early voting is already happening and is at about 20% of the total vote from 2016, two weeks before election day.

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Shenmue II = best game of all time
Shenmue = 2nd best game of all time
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 2:33:39 PM
#26:


Fenrimis posted...
I understand what you're stating TC. I felt after impeachment it was strong chance that he was gonna get reelected but I thought the COVID handling was poor on his part. Not the actual measures to curb COVID but more-so how he was talking about it. I also felt as someone that is super law and order I felt that he did a poor job of addressing the riots initially - he preaches action but felt his actions were delayed initially.

I'm really feeling 50/50 right now. I thought Hillary was gonna win in a landslide like it was all we ever heard about on TV or the news which mirrors how its going right now.

And as for my personal life my friends that liked Obama like Trump but my parents who are occasionally racist HATE trump with vitrol in their heart. Everything feels flipped on TV vs my personal life. I'm just waiting for my PS5 tbh fuck the election.
Thanks for your comment. Yeah, as strange as it is, in terms of winning the election, Covid was the best thing that's happened to the Dems the last few years, because it is tied closely with science and healthcare, two of Trump's weakest places.

If covid had never happened, I don't think there'd be any chance for them.
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Damn_Underscore
10/17/20 2:34:21 PM
#27:


Endgame posted...
Everyone who voted for Biden over Bernie in the primaries voted for Trump.

wat

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Shenmue II = best game of all time
Shenmue = 2nd best game of all time
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UnholyMudcrab
10/17/20 2:43:22 PM
#28:


Fenrimis posted...
my friends that liked Obama like Trump

No they don't
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RchHomieQuanChi
10/17/20 2:50:37 PM
#29:


Even Mitch McConnell thinks Trump is gonna lose and voter turnout is much better than when Hillary ran.

I'm not gonna try to get my hopes up too much but I'm pretty sure it's over.

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I have nothing else to say
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Intro2Logic
10/17/20 2:56:09 PM
#30:


Endgame posted...

Bet your account or shut the fuck up


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Have you tried thinking rationally?
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JimmyFraska
10/17/20 3:03:22 PM
#31:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
No they don't
But they did vote for Obama, and then voted for Trump. Those people aren't hard to find, there's a large number of them. What's your opinion on that?
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