Current Events > Record voter turnout in Texas might allow Biden to win the state

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 10:17:37 AM
#51:


Taharqa_ posted...



Those 214 red counties have a population that is roughly equivalent to that of Harris County, 4.7 million people. Texas has become an urban state, despite how many of us like to think of ourselves. The tide is turning here, that's why the GOP has ramped up their voter suppression efforts.


classic republicans trying to suppress the voter turnout

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Zack_Attackv1
10/14/20 10:20:04 AM
#52:


*continues humming the theme to Bonanza*
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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 10:21:51 AM
#53:


Skype posted...
Isn't Texas generally a low-voting state? Turn out may reflect a flip if that's the case.


Yes. Percentages have been very low for a long time.

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Shadowplay
10/14/20 10:22:53 AM
#54:


Endgame posted...
Anyone delusional enough to think Texas is turning blue this decade, let alone for Biden, should not be allowed to talk.

About ANYTHING.
You realize that Biden has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump does of Pennsylvania?

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Poop2
10/14/20 10:23:41 AM
#55:


MFBKBass5 posted...
Yesterday was the LARGEST first day of early voting on record,
beautiful

TURN TEXAS BLUE!
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NinjaWarrior455
10/14/20 10:28:10 AM
#56:


Hopefully all these people continue to raise hell once Trump and co are out of office. The fight doesn't end once Biden is in the WH.

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Boombam99
10/14/20 10:32:35 AM
#57:


I just wanna see the look on Republicans faces the day Texas goes blue, whether thats this year, 4 years, 8 whenever. It will be glorious.
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JBaLLEN66
10/14/20 10:33:23 AM
#58:


NinjaWarrior455 posted...
Hopefully all these people continue to raise hell once Trump and co are out of office. The fight doesn't end once Biden is in the WH.

I fear more of Trump's lame duck period than anything tbh

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LightHawKnight
10/14/20 10:39:07 AM
#59:


NinjaWarrior455 posted...
Hopefully all these people continue to raise hell once Trump and co are out of office. The fight doesn't end once Biden is in the WH.

Specially since Biden isn't that great either.

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Phantom_Nook
10/14/20 10:41:26 AM
#60:


I'll believe it when I see it.
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modena
10/14/20 10:42:18 AM
#61:


I sure hope we turn blue and legalize marijuana.The traffic around here yesterday was horrible from people voting.

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RchHomieQuanChi
10/14/20 10:43:20 AM
#62:


modena posted...
I sure hope we turn blue and legalize marijuana.The traffic around here yesterday was horrible from people voting.

I hear you brother

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Doom_Art
10/14/20 10:45:51 AM
#63:


Blue Texas is a beautiful dream

I don't see it happening this cycle but it will definitely be closer than it's been in a long time

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Alpha218
10/14/20 10:47:50 AM
#64:


thebatz posted...
hank hill is rolling in his propane
Hank Hill wouldnt vote for Donald Trump

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Jabodie
10/14/20 10:53:15 AM
#65:


I'd be pretty happy if Texas flipped, but that's more of a long term goal in my mind. Guys like Beto have been working hard in the state to turn things around, and shooting for the longshot every cycle may eventually make it a reality.

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Tyranthraxus
10/14/20 10:55:17 AM
#66:


Most websites are reporting that Georgia is a battleground state. If georgia goes blue, that means we will have swapped out two previously considered "safe" red Senate seats for blue ones. Both Senate seats were on the ballot this year.

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creativerealms
10/14/20 11:15:06 AM
#67:


I don't see Texas turning blue as great as that epuld be to see.

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creativerealms
10/14/20 11:16:06 AM
#68:


Alpha218 posted...
Hank Hill wouldnt vote for Donald Trump
He probably wrote in Jeb.

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 11:28:48 AM
#69:


creativerealms posted...
He probably wrote in Jeb.


lmao accurate

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harley2280
10/14/20 11:33:40 AM
#70:


creativerealms posted...
Alpha218 posted...
Hank Hill wouldnt vote for Donald Trump
He probably wrote in Jeb.

Nah. Hank takes voting too serious for that.

I don't think Texas will turn blue, that being said I wouldn't take a bet for it to remain red either.
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berlyman101
10/14/20 11:44:42 AM
#71:


Alpha218 posted...
Hank Hill wouldnt vote for Donald Trump

against Hillary? I don't think we know that.

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Hop103
10/14/20 11:44:50 AM
#72:


Grasping for straws, aren't you?

He's not winning, since Trump is still alive.
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creativerealms
10/14/20 11:45:54 AM
#73:


berlyman101 posted...
against Hillary? I don't think we know that.
I believe Mike Judge said Hank wouldn't vote for ether.

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Tyranthraxus
10/14/20 11:46:36 AM
#74:


harley2280 posted...
Nah. Hank takes voting too serious for that.

I don't think Texas will turn blue, that being said I wouldn't take a bet for it to remain red either.
Hank would never vote for Trump. Trump likes his steaks well done with ketchup and that's pretty much an unforgivable sin to Hank.

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SquirtleSkwad
10/14/20 11:47:55 AM
#75:


ShineboxPhil posted...
hank hill is rolling in his propane
Hank Hill would kick Trump's ass.

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soulunison2
10/14/20 11:49:10 AM
#76:


If anything hank probably spends an entire episode with the cognitive dissonance that the American way of democracy is obsolete and votes third party
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UnfairRepresent
10/14/20 11:50:20 AM
#77:


I'm sorry people but you're setting yourselves up for a disappointment

Texas is not turning blue.
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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 11:53:08 AM
#78:


Tyranthraxus posted...
Hank would never vote for Trump. Trump likes his steaks well done with ketchup and that's pretty much an unforgivable sin to Hank.


are yall really arguing if a fictional character is voting for trump or not?

never change CE

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The Trent
10/14/20 11:53:52 AM
#79:


godzilla would vote for bernie
burn it all down

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 11:53:54 AM
#80:


UnfairRepresent posted...
I'm sorry people but you're setting yourselves up for a disappointment

Texas is not turning blue.


cool story bro very enlightening post its almost like you havent read through the topic before posting a useless thought with zero insight

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UnfairRepresent
10/14/20 11:54:51 AM
#81:


I've been posting throughout the topic

But your dumb reply just reinforces the point
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TheGoldenEel
10/14/20 11:56:03 AM
#82:


FiveThirtyEight has Biden with almost a 1 in 3 chance of winning texas

dont count it out tbh

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/texas/

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Doom_Art
10/14/20 11:58:16 AM
#83:


TheGoldenEel posted...
FiveThirtyEight has Biden with almost a 1 in 3 chance of winning texas
To put it in other terms

Biden has as good a chance at winning Texas as Trump had at winning the presidency in 2016.

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MFBKBass5
10/14/20 11:59:07 AM
#84:


UnfairRepresent posted...
I've been posting throughout the topic

But your dumb reply just reinforces the point


pretty easy to post without reading through the topic like youve been doing

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SodomInsane
10/14/20 12:03:44 PM
#85:


I still dont get where they get these numbers for polls. Like are they asking random people on street if they voting for Trump? Who openly admits that to strangers and risk being labeled a racist.

Its even worse if they do phone calls like who picks up phone for numbers they dont know.

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Solar_Crimson
10/14/20 12:04:24 PM
#86:


Taharqa_ posted...



Those 214 red counties have a population that is roughly equivalent to that of Harris County, 4.7 million people. Texas has become an urban state, despite how many of us like to think of ourselves. The tide is turning here, that's why the GOP has ramped up their voter suppression efforts.
Yeah, that's honestly disgusting.

And yet, they'll get away with it because no one wants to hold them accountable.

Phantom_Nook posted...
I'll believe it when I see it.
This, TBH.

Texas going blue and giving Biden a landslide victory would be worth it for the meltdowns alone, but I don't have much faith that Texas actually will go blue this time.

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Tyranthraxus
10/14/20 12:07:34 PM
#87:


SodomInsane posted...
I still dont get where they get these numbers for polls. Like are they asking random people on street if they voting for Trump? Who openly admits that to strangers and risk being labeled a racist.

Its even worse if they do phone calls like who picks up phone for numbers they dont know.
The research methods are publicly available. Usually they do random cold calls.

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UnfairRepresent
10/14/20 12:09:01 PM
#88:


SodomInsane posted...
I still dont get where they get these numbers for polls. Like are they asking random people on street if they voting for Trump? Who openly admits that to strangers and risk being labeled a racist.

Its even worse if they do phone calls like who picks up phone for numbers they dont know.

All (credible) polling sources explain their methodolgy in detail.
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SodomInsane
10/14/20 12:09:16 PM
#89:


Tyranthraxus posted...
The research methods are publicly available. Usually they do random cold calls.

Oh so they rely on people picking up the phone from strange numbers that doesn't seem reliable.

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TheGoldenEel
10/14/20 12:12:04 PM
#90:


SodomInsane posted...
Oh so they rely on people picking up the phone from strange numbers that doesn't seem reliable.
Hmm, some guy on gamefaqs vs people who do this for a living

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Tyranthraxus
10/14/20 12:12:32 PM
#91:


SodomInsane posted...
Oh so they rely on people picking up the phone from strange numbers that doesn't seem reliable.
They're not and that's why they should be ignored in all cases. The vote of the only thing that matters.

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SodomInsane
10/14/20 12:15:07 PM
#92:


TheGoldenEel posted...
Hmm, some guy on gamefaqs vs people who do this for a living

I don't get why you thinking my point isn't valid. A lot of people wouldn't pick up a number they don't know. Its why contact tracing got fucked a couple months ago.

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CableZL
10/14/20 12:22:16 PM
#93:


Honestly, I think there's a very low chance that Trump will lose Texas. I think Biden will win, but... I don't think Texas is going blue for the presidency this year.

We'll see what happens, though.

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SodomInsane
10/14/20 12:31:28 PM
#94:


CableZL posted...
Honestly, I think there's a very low chance that Trump will lose Texas. I think Biden will win, but... I don't think Texas is going blue for the presidency this year.

We'll see what happens, though.

Same Biden will win election. I think it is more wishful thinking from media and people. Just like when people thought Trump and many connected to that super spreading event would die or end up in ICU and that didn't happen.

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JBaLLEN66
10/14/20 12:36:15 PM
#95:


SodomInsane posted...
Same Biden will win election. I think it is more wishful thinking from media and people. Just like when people thought Trump and many connected to that super spreading event would die or end up in ICU and that didn't happen.

why would they die?

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TwigsthePnoDude
10/14/20 12:38:30 PM
#96:


You do realize that most of these people generally voted on election day before hand.

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SodomInsane
10/14/20 1:25:14 PM
#97:


JBaLLEN66 posted...
why would they die?

Dont know. All the people who were rooting for it are gone now that Trump is out hospital.

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harley2280
10/14/20 1:35:54 PM
#98:


TwigsthePnoDude posted...
You do realize that most of these people generally voted on election day before hand.

*Citation needed.
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Gobstoppers12
10/14/20 1:44:56 PM
#99:


Machete posted...
Gobstoppers will claim, if it is a dead tie, donald trump won with 700% of the vote. That is how that user thinks.
Please don't lie about me. Or, if you do, at least have the courtesy to use an @

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Zanzenburger
10/14/20 2:20:57 PM
#100:


SodomInsane posted...
Oh so they rely on people picking up the phone from strange numbers that doesn't seem reliable.
I teach statistics and regularly do statistical analysis.

Polling through calls have proven to be the most reliable method of polling based on time, money, and number of responses. Emails and mailings have low response rates, though they are cheaper than calling. In-person polls are more reliable, but are expensive and time-consuming. Calling is a good in-between and generally is used in combination with other methods.

You would be surprised how many people answer unknown phone numbers. Most credible polls get anywhere from 8% to 30% response rates.

The actual sample size of your sample doesn't really matter as long as it meets a certain threshold for the type of analysis you are using. More important than the size is the sampling method. You want as pure of a random sample as you can get under the circumstances.

Even with a low response rate, you can build in error calculations as well as tests of normality and power analysis to determine the strength of the sample you do have. This helps to see if your sample is representative enough of the total population to continue woth analysis, recruit some more, or restart from scratch.

TLDR: People do actually still respond to phone polls, and there are statistical tests and sampling techniques to account for low response rates.

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