Current Events > My brother cannot comprehend the Monty Hall problem.

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GATTJT 05/24/20 7:25:24 PM #1:	I try to explain it to him as best as I can but he just doesn't get it. For those unfamiliar: You're on a game show. The host gives you the option to choose between 3 doors, 2 of which have a goat, 1 has a car. After you choose, the host opens 1 door to reveal a goat, then gives you the option to switch. Is it better to switch or stay? The better option is to switch, because you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the car, so the other doors have a 2/3 chance between them to have the car. After opening 1 door, that chance goes into the door you didn't pick, because you still have a 1/3 chance of having the car. Easiest way to explain is to just increase the number of doors. 10 doors, 1 has a car, you have a 9/10 chance of choosing a goat. 8 other doors are opened to reveal goats. Do you now have 50% chance of having a car? Of course not, because you chose the door back when you had 10% chance. --- http://steamcommunity.com/id/gamerfanfan/wishlist <cite>GATTJT posted [p:939655150] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I try to explain it to him as best as I can but he just doesn't get it. For those unfamiliar: You're on a game show. The host gives you the option to choose between 3 doors, 2 of which have a goat, 1 has a car. After you choose, the host opens 1 door to reveal a goat, then gives you the option to switch. Is it better to switch or stay? The better option is to switch, because you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the car, so the other doors have a 2/3 chance between them to have the car. After opening 1 door, that chance goes into the door you didn't pick, because you still have a 1/3 chance of having the car. Easiest way to explain is to just increase the number of doors. 10 doors, 1 has a car, you have a 9/10 chance of choosing a goat. 8 other doors are opened to reveal goats. Do you now have 50% chance of having a car? Of course not, because you chose the door back when you had 10% chance. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
NeoShadowhen 05/24/20 7:30:05 PM #2:	I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program. <cite>NeoShadowhen posted [p:939655337] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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FL81 05/24/20 7:33:18 PM #4:	CE doesn't understand it either incoming 100 post topic --- Placeholder signature until ImgTC comes back online <cite>FL81 posted [p:939655477] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>CE doesn't understand it either incoming 100 post topic </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
JoeDangIt 05/24/20 7:34:00 PM #5:	NeoShadowhen posted... I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program. Mythbusters did it. <cite>JoeDangIt posted [p:939655517] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>NeoShadowhen posted... </cite> <quote>I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program.</quote>Mythbusters did it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Cheese_Crackers 05/24/20 7:34:33 PM #6:	FL81 posted... CE doesn't understand it either incoming 100 post topic Idk about this version of the problem, but it's equivalent to a certain problem with red and green balls being picked from a bag, and that caused a stir on here recently. --- Though the fear of death is a common one, the fear of life is a more rational one. <cite>Cheese_Crackers posted [p:939655555] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>FL81 posted... </cite> <quote>CE doesn't understand it either incoming 100 post topic</quote> Idk about this version of the problem, but it's equivalent to a certain problem with red and green balls being picked from a bag, and that caused a stir on here recently. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jeff AKA Snoopy 05/24/20 7:35:36 PM #7:	Mythbusters did it and showed it is better to switch. --- https://imgur.com/GWG5c3r <cite>Jeff AKA Snoopy posted [p:939655601] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Mythbusters did it and showed it is better to switch. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Jerry_Hellyeah 05/24/20 7:36:06 PM #8:	What you've gotta understand is that it depends on how you phrase it. The way you phrased it is too loose. Specificity is key here. --- This is a cool sig <cite>Jerry_Hellyeah posted [p:939655628] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>What you've gotta understand is that it depends on how you phrase it. The way you phrased it is too loose. Specificity is key here. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
GATTJT 05/24/20 7:37:36 PM #9:	Jerry_Hellyeah posted... What you've gotta understand is that it depends on how you phrase it. The way you phrased it is too loose. Specificity is key here. What's ambiguous about the way I phrased it? --- http://steamcommunity.com/id/gamerfanfan/wishlist <cite>GATTJT posted [p:939655699] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Jerry_Hellyeah posted... </cite> <quote>What you've gotta understand is that it depends on how you phrase it. The way you phrased it is too loose. Specificity is key here.</quote>What's ambiguous about the way I phrased it? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ZTT888returning 05/24/20 7:43:18 PM #10:	Of course you switch. You instantly have a 50/50 chance and dont lose anything if you pick the second goat because you already have nothing. <cite>ZTT888returning posted [p:939655909] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Of course you switch. You instantly have a 50/50 chance and dont lose anything if you pick the second goat because you already have nothing. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Geiki Ganger 05/24/20 7:43:23 PM #11:	GATTJT posted... What's ambiguous about the way I phrased it? A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors. --- Nintendo 3DS Friend Code: 3368 - 1137 - 5460 http://i135.photobucket.com/albums/q155/Gamecubesupreme/sf7y9s.jpg <cite>Geiki Ganger posted [p:939655911] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>GATTJT posted... </cite> <quote>What's ambiguous about the way I phrased it?</quote> A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Sad_Face 05/24/20 7:44:07 PM #12:	Captain_Qwark posted... 1000 doors. You pick one. Host removes 998 wrong ones. Leaves one last one. Obviously better to switch to the last one than keep your first pick. Came in to post this extreme example. --- https://imgur.com/WmIB016 https://imgur.com/53FGj6K <cite>Sad_Face posted [p:939655944] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Captain_Qwark posted...</cite> <quote>1000 doors. You pick one. Host removes 998 wrong ones. Leaves one last one. Obviously better to switch to the last one than keep your first pick.</quote> Came in to post this extreme example.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Gakk86 05/24/20 7:45:25 PM #13:	I remember that show. I always wanted to punch Monty Hall in the mouth, he was just so fucking smug and condescending. What an asshole. --- All generalizations are false, including this one. <cite>Gakk86 posted [p:939655996] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I remember that show. I always wanted to punch Monty Hall in the mouth, he was just so fucking smug and condescending. What an asshole. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Frostshock 05/24/20 7:46:51 PM #14:	Geiki Ganger posted... A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors. Which is the somewhat unintuitive reason that swapping your case on Deal or No Deal doesn't give you an increased chance of winning. --- Got questions about schoolwork? Want to share answers, or discuss your studies? Come to Homework Helpers! http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/1060-homework-helpers <cite>Frostshock posted [p:939656057] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Geiki Ganger posted... </cite> <quote>A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors.</quote> Which is the somewhat unintuitive reason that swapping your case on Deal or No Deal doesn't give you an increased chance of winning. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Annihilated 05/24/20 7:49:09 PM #15:	I don't understand the point of this game. If you pick the goat, why would you stay? You have nothing to lose by switching because you either win a car or you just get a goat like you already have. <cite>Annihilated posted [p:939656141] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I don't understand the point of this game. If you pick the goat, why would you stay? You have nothing to lose by switching because you either win a car or you just get a goat like you already have. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
s0nicfan 05/24/20 7:52:14 PM #16:	Annihilated posted... I don't understand the point of this game. If you pick the goat, why would you stay? You have nothing to lose by switching because you either win a car or you just get a goat like you already have. The host reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. So you still don't know what is behind your door, but you do know that one of the other doors you didn't pick definitely has a goat behind it. --- "History Is Much Like An Endless Waltz. The Three Beats Of War, Peace And Revolution Continue On Forever." - Gundam Wing: Endless Waltz <cite>s0nicfan posted [p:939656251] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Annihilated posted... </cite> <quote>I don't understand the point of this game. If you pick the goat, why would you stay? You have nothing to lose by switching because you either win a car or you just get a goat like you already have.</quote> The host reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. So you still don't know what is behind your door, but you do know that one of the other doors you didn't pick definitely has a goat behind it. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Annihilated 05/24/20 7:53:43 PM #17:	s0nicfan posted... The host reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. So you still don't know what is behind your door, but you do know that one of the other doors you didn't pick definitely has a goat behind it. Oh I see, that makes more sense. It's been a while since I looked at this problem. The host knowledge does make all the difference. <cite>Annihilated posted [p:939656300] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>s0nicfan posted... </cite> <quote>The host reveals one of the two doors you didn't pick. So you still don't know what is behind your door, but you do know that one of the other doors you didn't pick definitely has a goat behind it.</quote> Oh I see, that makes more sense. It's been a while since I looked at this problem. The host knowledge does make all the difference. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Questionmarktarius 05/24/20 7:54:56 PM #18:	Do I get to keep the goat? <cite>Questionmarktarius posted [p:939656345] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Do I get to keep the goat? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
dj1200 05/24/20 7:57:09 PM #19:	Just show him a youtube video that breaks it down. --- "It was so ridiculous and I have so many feelings about it." -Virtual Energies <cite>dj1200 posted [p:939656424] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Just show him a youtube video that breaks it down. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Tenlaar 05/24/20 7:58:00 PM #20:	The wikipedia entry has it broken down into charts and visual representations. <cite>Tenlaar posted [p:939656451] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>The wikipedia entry has it broken down into charts and visual representations. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DrizztLink 05/24/20 7:59:02 PM #21:	https://youtu.be/QGxyIQzLeUc&t=1m50s --- http://guidesmedia.ign.com/guides/9846/images/slowpoke.gif https://imgur.com/M8h2ATe https://imgur.com/6ezFwG1 <cite>DrizztLink posted [p:939656503] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>https://youtu.be/QGxyIQzLeUc&t=1m50s </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Pogo_Marimo 05/24/20 8:01:56 PM #22:	It's extremely simple to test. You can literally just write down every solution for the three doors and add up the probability of success. It comes out to 66% if you switch, 33% if you don't. It doesn't need to be tested though, we already know the answer with mathematical certainty. --- I presume my time here in my darkblack dragondark steel-obliterating solitude has come to its end as well. http://www.last.fm/user/Pogo92 <cite>Pogo_Marimo posted [p:939656641] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>It's extremely simple to test. You can literally just write down every solution for the three doors and add up the probability of success. It comes out to 66% if you switch, 33% if you don't. It doesn't need to be tested though, we already know the answer with mathematical certainty. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DevsBro 05/24/20 8:04:17 PM #23:	NeoShadowhen posted... I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program. I tested it myself with a simple program that ran the test 1000 times each way (switching and not switching), and it checks out. I realized before I was even done programming that it checks out, because of the logic I used. Basically, I found that you win if you guess right the first time and don't switch xor you don't guess right the first time and you do switch. That simple logical statement made the simulation trivial but I ran it anyway, and sure enough around 667 switches and 333 non-switches were wins. I forget the exact numbers since it was years ago now. --- 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 <cite>DevsBro posted [p:939656743] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>NeoShadowhen posted... </cite> <quote>I understand the argument. Has it been tested? Seems like it would be wildly easy to program.</quote>I tested it myself with a simple program that ran the test 1000 times each way (switching and not switching), and it checks out. I realized before I was even done programming that it checks out, because of the logic I used. Basically, I found that you win if you guess right the first time and don't switch xor you don't guess right the first time and you do switch. That simple logical statement made the simulation trivial but I ran it anyway, and sure enough around 667 switches and 333 non-switches were wins. I forget the exact numbers since it was years ago now. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Questionmarktarius 05/24/20 8:04:46 PM #24:	Pogo_Marimo posted... It doesn't need to be tested though, we already know the answer with mathematical certainty. Schoolkids don't need to be tested on mathematical certainties either, but we do it anyway. <cite>Questionmarktarius posted [p:939656766] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Pogo_Marimo posted... </cite> <quote>It doesn't need to be tested though, we already know the answer with mathematical certainty.</quote>Schoolkids don't need to be tested on mathematical certainties either, but we do it anyway. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DevsBro 05/24/20 8:08:34 PM #25:	Also, kind of a trivia thing but Monty Hall's show actually doesn't work the way the Monty Hall problem does. --- 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 <cite>DevsBro posted [p:939656955] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Also, kind of a trivia thing but Monty Hall's show actually doesn't work the way the Monty Hall problem does. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
FaultyGourry 05/24/20 8:20:07 PM #26:	Basically people don't get the problem because it's usually worded incorrectly and/or very poorly, leading to an assumption that the door reveal is based upon opening one of the doors with a goat only, not opening one randomly and that door just happening to have a goat behind it by chance. When people are thinking about the problem, they're thinking about it based on the problem itself, not the situation the problem is based on. --- You can tell a lot about a man by how he strangles you. "Hypocrisy does not invalidate a point." - S. Rose. https://imgur.com/ZA4vp0y <cite>FaultyGourry posted [p:939657416] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Basically people don't get the problem because it's usually worded incorrectly and/or very poorly, leading to an assumption that the door reveal is based upon opening one of the doors with a goat only, not opening one randomly and that door just happening to have a goat behind it by chance. When people are thinking about the problem, they're thinking about it based on the problem itself, not the situation the problem is based on. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
realnifty1 05/24/20 9:22:01 PM #27:	Another fun explanation is it to invert it. Do you think you have a better chance of picking the door with the prize, or a better chance of picking a door without a prize? Switching is like picking a door without a prize. <cite>realnifty1 posted [p:939659811] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Another fun explanation is it to invert it. Do you think you have a better chance of picking the door with the prize, or a better chance of picking a door without a prize? Switching is like picking a door without a prize. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bad_Mojo 05/24/20 9:26:27 PM #28:	I don't get it. I'm HORRIBLE at math, but I 100% understand this issue. It is always better to switch if they show and eliminate it down to 2 choices --- https://i.imgtc.com/hQ5SuG6.gif https://i.imgtc.com/QrhAq36.gif https://i.imgtc.com/Yjov9DU.gif <cite>Bad_Mojo posted [p:939659996] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I don't get it. I'm HORRIBLE at math, but I 100% understand this issue. It is always better to switch if they show and eliminate it down to 2 choices </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
OrangeCrush980 05/24/20 9:28:45 PM #29:	GATTJT posted... Easiest way to explain is to just increase the number of doors. 10 doors, 1 has a car, you have a 9/10 chance of choosing a goat. 8 other doors are opened to reveal goats. Do you now have 50% chance of having a car? Or it's like if 1 door had a gas mask and the other 9 doors had nothing. --- Congrats to azuarc for winning the Game of the Decade 2 Guru challenge! <cite>OrangeCrush980 posted [p:939660097] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>GATTJT posted...</cite> <quote>Easiest way to explain is to just increase the number of doors. 10 doors, 1 has a car, you have a 9/10 chance of choosing a goat. 8 other doors are opened to reveal goats. Do you now have 50% chance of having a car?</quote> Or it's like if 1 door had a gas mask and the other 9 doors had nothing.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
FrankGoreHOF 05/24/20 9:30:56 PM #30:	Captain_Qwark posted... Just make the numbers bigger and he'll probably understand 1000 doors. You pick one. Host removes 998 wrong ones. Leaves one last one. Obviously better to switch to the last one than keep your first pick. This is the best way to teach people who have trouble understanding it, in my experience. You arent switching to just one other door, you're switching to two other conceptual possibilities. Hence why you win 2/3 when swapping --- #FrankGoreHOF <cite>FrankGoreHOF posted [p:939660177] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Captain_Qwark posted... </cite> <quote>Just make the numbers bigger and he'll probably understand 1000 doors. You pick one. Host removes 998 wrong ones. Leaves one last one. Obviously better to switch to the last one than keep your first pick.</quote>This is the best way to teach people who have trouble understanding it, in my experience. You arent switching to just one other door, you're switching to two other conceptual possibilities. Hence why you win 2/3 when swapping </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
el_cheato 05/24/20 9:32:21 PM #31:	We had to program this problem for one of my classes in college. Then we got to increase the amount of doors to a couple thousand to really demonstrate how much better it is to switch. --- I guess <cite>el_cheato posted [p:939660228] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>We had to program this problem for one of my classes in college. Then we got to increase the amount of doors to a couple thousand to really demonstrate how much better it is to switch. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bad_Mojo 05/24/20 9:36:56 PM #32:	el_cheato posted... We had to program this problem for one of my classes in college. Then we got to increase the amount of doors to a couple thousand to really demonstrate how much better it is to switch. Weak college, tbh. You should understand that in middle school. And again, this is coming from someone that is terrible at math --- https://i.imgtc.com/hQ5SuG6.gif https://i.imgtc.com/QrhAq36.gif https://i.imgtc.com/Yjov9DU.gif <cite>Bad_Mojo posted [p:939660407] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>el_cheato posted... </cite> <quote>We had to program this problem for one of my classes in college. Then we got to increase the amount of doors to a couple thousand to really demonstrate how much better it is to switch.</quote> Weak college, tbh. You should understand that in middle school. And again, this is coming from someone that is terrible at math </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
FrankGoreHOF 05/24/20 9:45:12 PM #33:	Bad_Mojo posted... Weak college, tbh. You should understand that in middle school. And again, this is coming from someone that is terrible at math You learned programming in middle school? Sounda like a dope ass school --- #FrankGoreHOF <cite>FrankGoreHOF posted [p:939660763] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Bad_Mojo posted... </cite> <quote>Weak college, tbh. You should understand that in middle school. And again, this is coming from someone that is terrible at math</quote>You learned programming in middle school? Sounda like a dope ass school </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
SH_expert44 05/24/20 9:46:10 PM #34:	If you DO win the goat, did you actually get to keep it? --- https://imgur.com/iQep35u https://imgur.com/nhHkg9L https://imgur.com/A3kur0P https://imgur.com/Hj9RrC6 <cite>SH_expert44 posted [p:939660791] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>If you DO win the goat, did you actually get to keep it? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
DevsBro 05/24/20 9:47:07 PM #35:	FrankGoreHOF posted... You learned programming in middle school? Sounda like a dope ass school He must go to school in some first world country like Europe. --- 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 <cite>DevsBro posted [p:939660820] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>FrankGoreHOF posted... </cite> <quote>You learned programming in middle school? Sounda like a dope ass school</quote>He must go to school in some first world country like Europe. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ChocoboMogALT 05/24/20 9:53:31 PM #36:	Geiki Ganger posted... A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors. Doesn't matter. --- "We live in a country Hasire.." ~ yosouf06 REVOLVER STAKE! http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v717/ChocoboMog123/AltEisenRChocoboMog.png <cite>ChocoboMogALT posted [p:939661064] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Geiki Ganger posted... </cite> <quote>A key fact you left out is that the host always knows what is behind all three doors.</quote>Doesn't matter. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Cheese_Crackers 05/24/20 9:55:37 PM #37:	Bad_Mojo posted... I don't get it. I'm HORRIBLE at math, but I 100% understand this issue. It is always better to switch if they show and eliminate it down to 2 choices Then youre not horrible at math. The type of reasoning that it takes to realize why switching is better is mathematical reasoning and its way more important in math than arithmetic is. --- Though the fear of death is a common one, the fear of life is a more rational one. <cite>Cheese_Crackers posted [p:939661148] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Bad_Mojo posted... </cite> <quote>I don't get it. I'm HORRIBLE at math, but I 100% understand this issue. It is always better to switch if they show and eliminate it down to 2 choices</quote> Then youre not horrible at math. The type of reasoning that it takes to realize why switching is better is mathematical reasoning and its way more important in math than arithmetic is. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
tiornys 05/24/20 9:57:45 PM #38:	ChocoboMogALT posted... Doesn't matter. It can matter. Specifically, if it is possible for the host to randomly open the door that the car is behind, then the odds for switching are actually 50% if a goat was revealed (and 100% if the car was revealed). <cite>tiornys posted [p:939661251] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>ChocoboMogALT posted... </cite> <quote>Doesn't matter.</quote>It can matter. Specifically, if it is possible for the host to randomly open the door that the car is behind, then the odds for switching are actually 50% if a goat was revealed (and 100% if the car was revealed). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bad_Mojo 05/24/20 9:59:02 PM #39:	Cheese_Crackers posted... Then youre not horrible at math. The type of reasoning that it takes to realize why switching is better is mathematical reasoning and its way more important in math than arithmetic is. No, I very much am. I couldn't tell you what 8x7 is right now. I never passed Algebra, got a D in Pre-Algebra, and then another D in Applied Pr-Algebra But I very easily understand this whole Monty Hall problem. It's like, how could you not? --- https://i.imgtc.com/hQ5SuG6.gif https://i.imgtc.com/QrhAq36.gif https://i.imgtc.com/Yjov9DU.gif <cite>Bad_Mojo posted [p:939661301] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Cheese_Crackers posted... </cite> <quote>Then youre not horrible at math. The type of reasoning that it takes to realize why switching is better is mathematical reasoning and its way more important in math than arithmetic is.</quote> No, I very much am. I couldn't tell you what 8x7 is right now. I never passed Algebra, got a D in Pre-Algebra, and then another D in Applied Pr-Algebra But I very easily understand this whole Monty Hall problem. It's like, how could you not? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Damn_Underscore 05/24/20 10:03:35 PM #40:	One way of understanding it is, imagine if there were one million boxes and you pick one. Then 999,998 are removed and the only ones left are the one you selected and another one. Which one is more likely to be the winning box? --- Shenmue II = best game of all time Shenmue = 2nd best game of all time <cite>Damn_Underscore posted [p:939661459] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>One way of understanding it is, imagine if there were one million boxes and you pick one. Then 999,998 are removed and the only ones left are the one you selected and another one. Which one is more likely to be the winning box?</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ChocoboMogALT 05/24/20 10:04:26 PM #41:	tiornys posted... It can matter. Specifically, if it is possible for the host to randomly open the door that the car is behind, then the odds for switching are actually 50% if a goat was revealed (and 100% if the car was revealed). That was going to be my point. If the host reveals the car, you switch to the car (presumably you're allowed), if the host reveals the goat,you switch as the problem is solved above (I think it's 66%). --- "We live in a country Hasire.." ~ yosouf06 REVOLVER STAKE! http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v717/ChocoboMog123/AltEisenRChocoboMog.png <cite>ChocoboMogALT posted [p:939661492] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>tiornys posted... </cite> <quote>It can matter. Specifically, if it is possible for the host to randomly open the door that the car is behind, then the odds for switching are actually 50% if a goat was revealed (and 100% if the car was revealed).</quote>That was going to be my point. If the host reveals the car, you switch to the car (presumably you're allowed), if the host reveals the goat,you switch as the problem is solved above (I think it's 66%). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bad_Mojo 05/24/20 10:05:56 PM #42:	ChocoboMogALT posted... If the host reveals the car The host will never reveal the car first --- https://i.imgtc.com/hQ5SuG6.gif https://i.imgtc.com/QrhAq36.gif https://i.imgtc.com/Yjov9DU.gif <cite>Bad_Mojo posted [p:939661556] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>ChocoboMogALT posted... </cite> <quote>If the host reveals the car</quote> The host will never reveal the car first </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MrFingers07 05/24/20 10:07:42 PM #43:	https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0 I just googled it. Interesting --- :D Brawlin' Mains: R.O.B., Lucario, Pikachu, Wolf <cite>MrFingers07 posted [p:939661639] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>https://youtu.be/4Lb-6rxZxx0 I just googled it. Interesting </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
tiornys 05/24/20 10:08:30 PM #44:	ChocoboMogALT posted... That was going to be my point. If the host reveals the car, you switch to the car (presumably you're allowed), if the host reveals the goat,you switch as the problem is solved above (I think it's 66%). No, because the reason the odds are 66% as the problem is generally presented is because the host can't (or doesn't ever) reveal the car, which basically pushes the 1/3 * 100% portion of the odds into the goat + switch scenario. To put it another way, take that scenario with 1 million boxes. If you pick one, and then 999,998 are taken away, and it's possible to take away the prize, where do you think the prize is most likely to be? <cite>tiornys posted [p:939661672] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>ChocoboMogALT posted... </cite> <quote>That was going to be my point. If the host reveals the car, you switch to the car (presumably you're allowed), if the host reveals the goat,you switch as the problem is solved above (I think it's 66%).</quote>No, because the reason the odds are 66% as the problem is generally presented is because the host can't (or doesn't ever) reveal the car, which basically pushes the 1/3 * 100% portion of the odds into the goat + switch scenario. To put it another way, take that scenario with 1 million boxes. If you pick one, and then 999,998 are taken away, and it's possible to take away the prize, where do you think the prize is most likely to be? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
dave_is_slick 05/24/20 10:15:05 PM #45:	Damn_Underscore posted... One way of understanding it is, imagine if there were one million boxes and you pick one. Then 999,998 are removed and the only ones left are the one you selected and another one. Which one is more likely to be the winning box? I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do. --- The most relaxing version of Aquatic Ambiance I've ever heard: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl61y1XM7sM <cite>dave_is_slick posted [p:939661925] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>Damn_Underscore posted... </cite> <quote>One way of understanding it is, imagine if there were one million boxes and you pick one. Then 999,998 are removed and the only ones left are the one you selected and another one. Which one is more likely to be the winning box?</quote>I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
tiornys 05/24/20 10:16:18 PM #46:	dave_is_slick posted... I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do. It's because you're not acting on the information that you've been indirectly given by the actions of the more knowledgable host. <cite>tiornys posted [p:939661967] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>dave_is_slick posted... </cite> <quote>I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do.</quote>It's because you're not acting on the information that you've been indirectly given by the actions of the more knowledgable host. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
dave_is_slick 05/24/20 10:17:46 PM #47:	tiornys posted... It's because you're not acting on the information that you've been indirectly given by the actions of the more knowledgable host. And that knowledge is? --- The most relaxing version of Aquatic Ambiance I've ever heard: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl61y1XM7sM <cite>dave_is_slick posted [p:939662038] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>tiornys posted... </cite> <quote>It's because you're not acting on the information that you've been indirectly given by the actions of the more knowledgable host.</quote>And that knowledge is? </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MrFingers07 05/24/20 10:20:25 PM #48:	dave_is_slick posted... I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do. I didn't get it either until i googled it and saw a video on it. I just find it easier to learn/digest information easier with videos than written down. Check post 43 --- :D Brawlin' Mains: R.O.B., Lucario, Pikachu, Wolf <cite>MrFingers07 posted [p:939662155] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>dave_is_slick posted... </cite> <quote>I guess this is just a problem I'll never truly get because I still don't see, even after all these explanations, why holding onto your pick when it's only two options left, is the "wrong" thing to do.</quote>I didn't get it either until i googled it and saw a video on it. I just find it easier to learn/digest information easier with videos than written down. Check post 43 </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
VideoboysaysCube 05/24/20 10:21:46 PM #49:	I think this depends on whether the host has knowledge. Consider: -host has no knowledge -you pick a door -host picks a random door, happens to be a goat At this point, your odds are going to be 50/50, whether you switch or not. But if the host picked a door because he knew it was a goat, then it makes sense to switch, because he's actually eliminate a bad choice instead of making a random pick. --- This sentence has five words. This sentence has eight words. Only one sentence in this signature is true. <cite>VideoboysaysCube posted [p:939662207] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>I think this depends on whether the host has knowledge. Consider: -host has no knowledge -you pick a door -host picks a random door, happens to be a goat At this point, your odds are going to be 50/50, whether you switch or not. But if the host picked a door because he knew it was a goat, then it makes sense to switch, because he's actually eliminate a bad choice instead of making a random pick. </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
tiornys 05/24/20 10:22:15 PM #50:	dave_is_slick posted... And that knowledge is? That the door he opened never had the car. Basically there are two scenarios. 1: your initial guess hit the car. In this case the host can open either of the other doors and you don't actually gain information, and if you switch you lose. 2: your initial guess missed the car. In this case the host must open the remaining door with a goat, and if you switch you win. Scenario 1 happens 1 time in 3, scenario 2 happens 2 times in 3. If you're in scenario 2, the host is indirectly telling you where the car is (because he has no choice about which door he opens). <cite>tiornys posted [p:939662226] in My brother... [t:78716621]...</cite> <quote>dave_is_slick posted... </cite> <quote>And that knowledge is?</quote>That the door he opened never had the car. Basically there are two scenarios. 1: your initial guess hit the car. In this case the host can open either of the other doors and you don't actually gain information, and if you switch you lose. 2: your initial guess missed the car. In this case the host must open the remaining door with a goat, and if you switch you win. Scenario 1 happens 1 time in 3, scenario 2 happens 2 times in 3. If you're in scenario 2, the host is indirectly telling you where the car is (because he has no choice about which door he opens). </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > My brother cannot comprehend the Monty Hall problem. (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > My brother cannot comprehend the Monty Hall problem.