Board 8 > So how long do these viral outbreak things generally last

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Me and my fiance are getting married in August and wanted to take our Honeymoon after, but with everything going on now were unsure if we should be travelling across Europe. What do people more well informed then me think?

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No way of knowing. Depends on a ton of things, including government response (which will vary by country), whether its seasonal (still unknown), how well distancing measures work, etc. A vaccine is at least a year (probably more like 1.5 years) out.

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Probably will be fine in August. Might be a good time to get tickets too, so win win.

But yeah, no way of knowing for sure. It took about two-three months for Chinese cases to die down.

We don't know for sure, yet, but it's probable that by August new cases will have declined depending on how the virus reacts to the warmer temperatures among other factors. For the swine flu in 2009, August was the point cases went notably down. Even so, I would reccommend being cautious and maintaining good hygine.

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Six to eight months is generally how long epidemics trend for. So yeah, August to October.

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colliding posted...

Probably will be fine in August. Might be a good time to get tickets too, so win win.

But yeah, no way of knowing for sure. It took about two-three months for Chinese cases to die down.

That was with draconian government intervention. A few other countries have gotten it under control much more humanely, but this is far from guaranteed (and currently Trump is absolutely not doing everything that needs to be done; as of a day or two ago only ~2000 tests had been run).

We also dont know that it will be seasonal; some viruses are, others arent. I guess theres some indication that it dies quicker on surfaces are higher temperatures, but its still spreading in places like Australia where its summer. Its definitely possible that it spreads less efficiently in the heat and that it could be stopped when combined with control measures even if it wouldnt on its own, but we just dont know yet.

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