Board 8 > Tangy Tackles the Bracket!

(+) Yeah! (+)

Well here we go I'm going to attempt a bracket analysis. Any criticisms would be great.

My picks will be shown using this system up until division finals. Where each match will get a write up.

Standard Text - Losing Round 1
Italics - Losing Round 2
Bold - Losing Round 3
Bold/Underlined - Winning Round 3

Division 1

(1) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
(16) The Outer Worlds

(8) Halo: Reach
(9) Life is Strange

(5) Final Fantasy XV
(12) What Remains of Edith Finch

(4) Hollow Knight
(13) Tales of Berseria

The first half of Division 1 seems pretty open and shut, the only debatable match I can really see causing an issue is Hollow Knight vs. Berseria. I've noticed a lot of people being confused about its seeding and to me that's a huge sign that it's a great deal stronger than we think. Berseria's only claim to fame was Velvet barely beating James Sunderland, but I think that's because of match pics/bracket voting, which I don't think will apply here. I'm going Hollow Knight, but I could be wrong.

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Tag

Division 1 Part 2

(3) Monster Hunter: World
(14) Bravely Default: Flying Fairy

(6) Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
(11) Ni No Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch

(7) The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series
(10) Bastion

(2) Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
(15) The Legend of Heroes: Trails in the Sky SC

Monster Hunter vs. Sekiro is the first big Round 2 match and it's a tricky one. This match depends entirely on the strength of the Souls games as a whole and if Sekiro wins then it's going to spell out the rest of the bracket for us, but I don't think that'll happen. Monster Hunter has a much higher playrate and more casual appeal, so I think it's the safe pick. However I won't be surprised if it loses to Sekiro.

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Division 2 Part 1

(1) Mass Effect 2
(16) Resident Evil 7: biohazard

(8) Fallout 4
(9) VVVVVV

(5) Borderlands 2
(12) Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night

(4) Horizon Zero Dawn
(13) Fortnite

Division Two is probably the scariest Division in the whole bracket and this is only the first half. I don't even feel safe with ME2 > RE7. It should be fine, but ME is on the downswing while RE on the up. So I think it'll be a lot closer than most people think, but what's even scarier is the winner will likely be in the Division Finals so, I wouldn't blindly jump onto ME2 here, even if it probably is the right pick.

Alright now it's time to bash Fallout and Borderlands, both of these games are going to look horrible in both of their matches. I think Fallout 4 is pretty safe, It'll get antivoted to death, but VVVVVV isn't strong enough to topple it. Borderlands on the other hand has always been a fraud on this site and will remain to be one. All four of it's characters lost in 2013 and then in 2015 it lost pretty easily to EarthBound. Bloodstained will likely have Castlevania fans backing it and it did pretty good in GotY If you're looking for some one point upsets that not a lot of people are going for, this might be a good one

Oh yeah and Fortnite's not doing anything, its time in the sun is over and the only people who care about it anymore aren't even 'old enough to make an account', so I'm really not worried about them coming here in droves.

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Division 2 Part 2

(3) Resident Evil 2
(14) Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair

(6) DOOM
(11) INSIDE

(7) Fire Emblem: Awakening
(10) Deus Ex: Human Revolution

(2) Bloodborne
(15) Call of Duty: Black Ops

So initially I picked RE2 and just ran with it. Then I listened to The Show and it got me thinking about the potential of DOOM. And well yeah it checks a lot of the same boxes as RE2 and Doom Eternal is right around the corner. So it's definitely enough to second guess this match, but I like to think of it like this if it were the originals RE2 would take it right? Yeah that's the logic I'm running with

As far as Awakening goes, I think it should nudge out Bloodborne, but like with Sekiro, Bloodborne could just come out of nowhere with a ton of strength so I'd watch it. RE2 definitely takes down Awakening at least, it beat Three Houses in GotY so the weaker FE shouldn't pose a threat.


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BetrayedTangy posted...

So initially I picked RE2 and just ran with it. Then I listened to The Show and it got me thinking about the potential of DOOM. And well yeah it checks a lot of the same boxes as RE2 and Doom Eternal is right around the corner. So it's definitely enough to second guess this match, but I like to think of it like this if it were the originals RE2 would take it right? Yeah that's the logic I'm running with

You know what else is right around the corner? RE3.

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Division 3

(1) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
(16) Tekken 7

(8) The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds
(9) Bayonetta

(5) Marvel's Spider-Man
(12) Dead Space 2

(4) Minecraft
(13) Dota 2

(3) Undertale
(14) Octopath Traveler

(6) Shovel Knight
(11) Dragon's Dogma

(7) Devil May Cry V
(10) Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

(2) Super Mario Odyssey
(15) Mortal Kombat 11

I went ahead and just did the whole division here, since the first half is as simple as simple can be. The second half is when things get dicey.

Undertale is hard to pin down, but I'm using the 2018 contest to figure out R1 as they both had characters in it. Sans got 28% on Pac-Man and Primrose got 25% on Zero and Zero is waaaaayyyy strong than Pac. I know characters =/= games and all that jazz, but I think this might be a sign that Undertale is just going to get antivoted so hard Octopath will edge it out. Doesn't matter though, because I think Shovel Knight beats both regardless.

Also Tropical Freeze should beat DMC, it's very highly regarded and is considered one of the best DKC games right up there with 2, so this is a pretty safe upset I'd say

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scaryice posted...

You know what else is right around the corner? RE3.

It sure is, isn't it? That just gives me more faith in RE2, Capcom has really pulled together these past few years haven't they?

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Division 4 Part 1

(1) Grand Theft Auto V
(16) Baba is You

(8) Cuphead
(9) XCOM 2

(5) Persona 4 Golden
(12) FTL: Faster Than Light

(4) Red Dead Redemption
(13) Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective

This is probably my favorite division to talk about. There's so much going on and it has some of my personal favorites of the decade. Round 1 is pretty fun, Cuphead gets a winnable match and so does a game from the previous decade. But Round 2 is where they get crazy.

Everyone always says don't bet on GTA, but I think that leads to it getting underestimated and as much as I really want to see Cuphead take it down, it's just not going to happen. In 2015 I had Shovel Knight beating San Andreas and it wasn't even close. I'm not making that mistake again.

Going from underestimating to overestimating we have Persona 4. It's a great game and all, but I always feel like the board acts like its way stronger than it is. It really hasn't done anything that impressive, everyone likes pointing to 2015. But is blowing out 999 and getting 35% on TP really that good? No I don't think so, it'll be close but I think RDR is going to take it.

Which lead us to what's probably going to be one of the most interesting matches of the contest. GTAV vs. RDR. The Show talked a bit about this, but it could go either way. GTA has more natural strength and a higher playrate. Red Dead on the other hand has a lot more respect and is definitely closer to being a GameFAQs game. It really could go either way and this is one of those key matches I'm going to keep flipping on. Right now I have GTA, but I could very easily be sold on Red Dead.

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Dangerous game relying on other games releasing to decide matches.

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Division 4 Part 2

(3) Xenoblade Chronicles
(14) Splatoon 2

(6) Overwatch
(11) Death Stranding

(7) Dragon Age: Inquisition
(10) Ori and the Blind Forest

(2) Fire Emblem: Three Houses
(15) South Park: The Stick of Truth

Three Houses should dominate this half of the division. I really don't see anything being strong enough to take it down here. Xenoblade was pretty close to Awakening in 2015 and even if it has gotten a boost which is unlikely, I doubt it can reach Three Houses.

As far as the one point matches go, everyone's talked Overwatch vs. Death Stranding plenty, but I also think Dragon Age and Ori could turn out to be interesting. I don't claim to know a lot about the Dragon Age games, but I do know that Origins is the big Dragon Age game. Whereas Inquisition was just the one eligible for the contest, plus Ori has a sequel coming out and is pretty highly regarded in its own right. I'm still going Dragon Age right now, but I think it'll be closer than most people expect.

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Division 5 Part 1

(1) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt
(16) Assassin's Creed Odyssey

(8) Mass Effect 3
(9) Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty

(5) Stardew Valley
(12) Destiny

(4) Super Mario Galaxy 2
(13) Return of the Obra Dinn

(3) Fallout: New Vegas
(14) The Stanley Parable

(6) Dark Souls III
(11) Dishonored

(7) The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
(10) Nioh

(2) God of War
(15) The Talos Principle

The first half of this division is pretty easy. ME3 vs. SC2 is a solid debate, but I'll stick with ME3 for now. I don't really trust either of these to win tbh.

My initial reaction to R3 was Galaxy 2 > Witcher 3. Then I remembered Geralt butchering Rosalina in 2018 and then remembered Galaxy 2 losing to Mass Effect. So yeah SMG2 is going to die in R3 pretty easily. Now for the fun half

New Vegas vs. Dark Souls III is probably the toughest of these Round 2 Souls matches. I've bet against the franchise up until this point so I'll stick with it and go Fallout. It's got the much higher playrate and the franchise has some much stronger history on here than DS does, but DS3 could take the upset.

Other than that GoW trounces everything else and Isaac likely beats Nioh

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BetrayedTangy posted...

Berseria's only claim to fame was Velvet barely beating James Sunderland

Velvet exceeded 60% in that match, even though Sunderland was nowhere near the weakest character in 2018's field. Also, Hollow Knight looked godawful in 2017's GotY voting, though that's got the asterisk of being a non-contest poll, and it's likely improved quite a bit since.

BetrayedTangy posted...

I don't even feel safe with ME2 > RE7. It should be fine, but ME is on the downswing while RE on the up. So I think it'll be a lot closer than most people think, but what's even scarier is the winner will likely be in the Division Finals so, I wouldn't blindly jump onto ME2 here, even if it probably is the right pick.

RE2make absolutely ate RE7's lunch. There's a reason the latter's only a 16-seed, so while it might look respectable, it's not going to get anywhere near an actual upset.

BetrayedTangy posted...

But is blowing out 999 and getting 35% on TP really that good?

Yes, it is, at least by Division 4 standards. GTAV is the only other game that might be stronger based on raw numbers, but it's also GTA. At the very least, there's no reason to have so much confidence RDR will take their Round 2 match.

BetrayedTangy posted...

but I also think Dragon Age and Ori could turn out to be interesting.

Dragon Age is pretty firmly within GameFAQs's wheelhouse, whereas Ori just isn't. Inquisition would have to see a record collapse from its decent 2014 GotY showing to make this a debatable match, which I feel pretty confident won't happen.

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MetalmindStats posted...

Velvet exceeded 60% in that match, even though Sunderland was nowhere near the weakest character in 2018's field. Also, Hollow Knight looked godawful in 2017's GotY voting, though that's got the asterisk of being a non-contest poll, and it's likely improved quite a bit since.

Oh wow she sure did din't she? I really must have misrembered that match. I'll likely jump back to Berseria at some point

MetalmindStats posted...

Yes, it is, at least by Division 4 standards. GTAV is the only other game that might be stronger based on raw numbers, but it's also GTA. At the very least, there's no reason to have so much confidence RDR will take their Round 2 match.

Eh it's not so much confidence on RDR as it is lack of confidence in Persona 4. Even Skies of Arcadia got 27% on TP that contest and tbh I think both are pretty close in strenghth overall, but I wouldn't definitely give the edge to RDR.

On the other two yeah I'm mostly agree, I just think both RE7 and Ori have been completely written off, even if they are the heavy underdogs in their matches.


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Division 6

(1) Persona 5
(16) Heavy Rain

(8) Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag
(9) Civilization V

(5) Sonic Mania
(12) Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA

(4) Super Meat Boy
(13) Slay the Spire

(3) Portal 2
(14) Tomb Raider

(6) Kingdom Hearts III
(11) Disco Elysium

(7) Animal Crossing: New Leaf
(10) Street Fighter V

(2) Red Dead Redemption 2
(15) Dying Light

As mentioned before I have very little faith in Persona doing anything major in these contests. That said if any can pull it off it's Persona 5, it became a pretty mainstream game to the point of getting Joker into Smash which is pretty damn impressive in its own right. It's pretty much a lock for division finals here, I think Sonic Mania will put some good numbers in on it, but not enough to make me worry about it.

Black Flag vs. Civ 5 is also sort of debated, but I feel safe with Black Flag. Assassin's Creed has showed way more strength here than Civ even if the franchise is dying off. In fact Altair and Ezio crushed Ratchet and Tails respectively in 2013. I'm sure the franchise has fallen since then, but there's no way it reaches Civ's level.

Portal 2 also has a pretty solid path, the only wild card here is Animal Crossing. It could win or lose both rounds 1 & 2. The only real data we have is it getting SFF'd by Super Mario World so uh yeah not very definitive. It should handle SFV fine I'm going to go with RDR2 in R2 tho. I think it garners a lot more respect, as well as bracket voting. Whereas AC is sort of relying on a New Horizons boost which I think I don't think is enough. Then again it is Nintendo so who knows.

Also lol at Kingdom Hearts III

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Division 7

(1) Dark Souls
(16) Hotline Miami

(8) Rocket League
(9) Dragon Ball FighterZ

(5) Yakuza 0
(12) The Witness

(4) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain
(13) Dead Cells

(3) Batman: Arkham City
(14) Xenoblade Chronicles 2

(6) BioShock Infinite
(11) Terraria

(7) Diablo III
(10) Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward

(2) The Last of Us
(15) Crusader Kings II

Dark Souls strongest competitor before TLoU is MGSV which it already beat in 2015 and that was right after MGSV came out I'm expecting a 60- 40 here at least.

Oh hey Batman and The Last of Us were in the same division in 2015. 39% on MMX vs. 40% on KHII. TLoU is the easy pick here, not only were its numbers better, but it was way more influential and has a highly anticipated sequel coming up. Also Diablo III gets really lucky here, so good on it I guess.

Now take what I'm about to say with a grain of salt, but I would love to see Rocket League obliterate most this division. It's got a very high playrate, it's a legitimately fun game with very few haters and is a very silly anti pick. I'm calling it now if this contest sees any crazy rallies or big upsets it's going to be Rocket League. I almost want to take it over Dark Souls and I probably would if it had more time to pick up steam like L-Block did. For now I'll leave it where it is

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Division 8

(1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
(16) Subnautica

(8) Fate / Grand Order
(9) Journey

(5) Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn
(12) Crypt of the Necrodancer

(4) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End
(13) Mario Kart 8

(3) Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver
(14) Night in the Woods

(6) Celeste
(11) Rayman Legends

(7) Divinity: Original Sin II
(10) Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft

(2) NieR: Automata
(15) Bayonetta 2

Skyrim absolutely dominates this entire division. It literally beat Metroid Prime and everything here is pretty weak, except maybe Pokemon, but I'll get into that here in a bit.

First off Journey and Celeste should have no issue winning their first matches. In fact I think Fate vs. Journey is going to be hilarious as it's literally opposing ideals. It's games as $$$ vs. games as art, so I'm expecting a blowout. Celeste I also think wins due to the games as art argument. Rayman Legends is a really solid platformer, but Celeste is more relevant and has received way more acclaim.

Mario Kart should be able to win the first two rounds, it could be super weak, It's got a huge playrate and its opponents both have their flaws. UC4 is likely the 3rd weakest in its franchise and FFXIV despite being Final Fantasy is still an MMO and a very expensive one at that, most people on here simply don't have the time to be playing an MMO, so I think Mario Kart can cruise past it.

Divinity vs. Hearthstone seems tough since Hearthstone is the casual option. However most PC gamers are going to vote Divinity, since it's apparently really good. Plus it likely gets bracket votes and Blizzard antivotes, so yeah it shouldn't be too difficult.

Ok now for Pokemon vs. NieR. This is tough, because it depends entirely on Pokemon's strength. On one hand Pokemon's received a lot of heat lately and has fallen a ton since 2013, but on the other HGSS is what many consider to be the last good one, hence it being the only inclusion here. NieR on the other hand is essentially a weaker Persona 5, it's an obscure game that managed to hit the mainstream and garnered a lot of praise, plus 2B looked great in 2018. She beat Ness and pulled almost 42% on Bowser. NieR also has the seeding and likely the bracket advantage too, hell even my personal bias wants me to pick NieR. The only thing stopping me is my gut however, it's sitting there screaming Pokemon at me, I'm picking NieR for now, but I might easily be steered in the opposite direction.

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