Current Events > Study claims that 4% of people sentenced to death are actually innocent

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PleaseClap
08/31/19 6:19:23 PM
#1:


https://www.newsweek.com/one-25-executed-us-innocent-study-claims-248889

How many are sentenced to death in the United States for crimes they did not commit?
A new study believes the figure is 1 in every 25or 4.1 percent.
The study, released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, "tells you that a surprising number of innocent people are sentenced to death," Samuel R. Gross, the lead author, said in an interview with Newsweek. "It tells you that a lot of them haven't been exonerated. Some of them no doubt have been executed."
Since 1973, 144 people on death row have been exonerated. As a percentage of all death sentences, that's just 1.6 percent. But if the innocence rate is 4.1 percent, more than twice the rate of exoneration, the study suggests what most people assumed but dreaded: An untold number of innocent people have been executed. Further, the majority of those wrongfully sentenced to death are likely to languish in prison and never be freed.
"I'm a little surprised it's this high," said Richard Dieter, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center, a nonprofit that works to educate the public about capital punishment. "I did not think the number would point to more than twice as high" as the number of cases that end in exonerations.
In all, the study, "Rate of False Conviction of Criminal Defendants Who Are Sentenced to Death," shows that more than half of the innocent people sentenced to death in the past 41 years are unaccounted for.
"Here's something which everybody said: 'You cannot do this, you can't find this out,'" said Gross, a law professor at the University of Michigan Law School. After all, a wrongful conviction is by definition an unknown error. Still, Gross has been studying wrongful criminal convictions for years, often alongside the study's co-author, Barbara O'Brien of Michigan State University College of Law. "We actually have a scientific estimate of the rate of innocence among people sentenced to death. That's exciting."
The study seeks to put to rest the conventional wisdom that wrongful criminal convictions are extremely rare. "[T]here is no shortage of lawyers and judges who assert confidently that the number of wrongful convictions is negligible," the authors write. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, for example, quoted a New York Times op-ed in a 2006 concurring opinion to claim that felony convictions have an "error rate .027 percentor, to put it another way, a success rate of 99.973 percent."
Gross said his study is "fundamentally inconsistent with statements like" Scalia's, which he called "a silly claim."



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Garioshi
08/31/19 6:19:45 PM
#2:


No shit.

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PleaseClap
08/31/19 6:19:55 PM
#3:


To approximate a number that has long been considered unknowable, the authors studied the subset of prisoners who, if wrongfully convicted, are most likely to be exonerated: those facing the threat of execution. Because the justice system goes to lengths not to execute innocent people, the cases of prisoners on death row receive far more scrutiny and go through many more appeals processes, raising the likelihood that any flaws in their convictions are found.
"The result is an exoneration rate that is far, far higher than for other [types of] cases, hundreds of times higher than for felons in general," Gross explained. "That means that it might be possible to use that very high exoneration rate as a good measure of the underlying rate of innocence, because it might come close to discovering all the cases that are there."
The study required some inventive math, however, because the highest predictor of being exonerated is not merely being sentenced to death but being currently under the threat of death. Many people sentenced to death ultimately have their sentences reduced to life in prison, at which point the criminal justice system stops focusing on their cases and their chances of being exonerated drops dramatically.
In order to find the innocence rate, the study had to determine the probability that someone sentenced to death would be exonerated if he or she remained under the threat of execution indefinitely. So Gross and O'Brien teamed up with biostatistician Chen Hu from the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine and applied "survival analysis," a technique generally used in medicine, to find the likelihood that someone on death row is innocent.
Gross explained their analysis by likening it to the mathematical process of determining the survival rate among a population with malaria. Because some people with malaria will receive treatment at various times, reducing the likelihood of succumbing to the diseasein the same way that being taken off death row reduces the likelihood of being exoneratedepidemiologists must be able to determine the death rate without counting the effects of the treatment on some people. When survival analysis is used to study the death penalty, the rate of those who are exonerated and survive death row is analogous to the rate of those who will die in the hypothetical malaria study.
The authors believe that 4.1 percent is the lower bound of the wrongful conviction rate for death sentences, because even the special attention given to people on death row will not catch every wrongful conviction. Many of these people have had their sentences reduced, meaning they are "not executed but also not found," as Dieter put it.
"It's a warning, an objective look at how we have been successful in finding some of these cases, but probably we're missing a lot," Dieter said of the study. "It raises the ultimate question of: Do we keep doing this?"


Seems like a very high percentage to me

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TheVipaGTS
08/31/19 6:19:57 PM
#4:


4% is way too fuckin high.
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-Cipher-
08/31/19 6:20:15 PM
#5:


that's just the ones that were proven innocent
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MabusIncarnate
08/31/19 6:20:45 PM
#6:


Wasn't there a Kevin Spacey movie about this, and anti-capital punishment activists?

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hockeybub89
08/31/19 6:20:56 PM
#7:


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Crepes
08/31/19 6:21:38 PM
#8:


In a country with the highest incarceration rates per capita in the world is this really a surprise?
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Antifar
08/31/19 6:22:35 PM
#9:


-Cipher- posted...
that's just the ones that were proven innocent

Well, no, if you look at their methodology that's not how they did this.

Still, I think this study is damning of death penalty proponents.
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Paragon21XX
08/31/19 6:34:52 PM
#10:


How many of those were convicted in the past 20 years and later exonerated, after modern day forensics came into play in capital trials?
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WilliamPorygon
08/31/19 6:36:17 PM
#11:


Well that's what happens when you have a system that's based on trying to get a conviction 100% of the time instead of trying to find the truth.
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Annihilated
08/31/19 6:40:22 PM
#12:


Antifar posted...
-Cipher- posted...
that's just the ones that were proven innocent

Well, no, if you look at their methodology that's not how they did this.

Still, I think this study is damning of death penalty proponents.


No it's not. It does not mention any comparison to non death convictions. It could be a lot less.
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ChocoboMogALT
08/31/19 6:41:37 PM
#13:


Paragon21XX posted...
How many of those were convicted in the past 20 years and later exonerated, after modern day forensics came into play in capital trials?
Plenty of modern convictions are based on flimsy assumptions that modern foresics are infallible. People hear "partial prints" or "trace DNA" and think it's open and shut when the truth is those are just supporting pieces. People also accept police statements as gospel, even when they conflict with facts.

Shows like CSI and NCIS have has a notable impact on jury convictions, even though they are fiction. Then there are shows like Cops which are literally police propaganda.

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ChocoboMogALT
08/31/19 6:42:38 PM
#14:


Annihilated posted...
No it's not. It does not mention any comparison to non death convictions. It could be a lot less.
Is it ok to execute innocent people?

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hockeybub89
08/31/19 6:42:45 PM
#15:


Giving a government the power to kill is all the argument against the death penalty you need.
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Annihilated
08/31/19 6:43:44 PM
#16:


ChocoboMogALT posted...
Annihilated posted...
No it's not. It does not mention any comparison to non death convictions. It could be a lot less.
Is it ok to execute innocent people?


Is it more okay to incarcerate innocent people?
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The_Ivory_Man
08/31/19 6:44:25 PM
#17:


Don't know why people are suprised about this.

And it should be dealt with.

WilliamPorygon posted...
Well that's what happens when you have a system that's based on trying to get a conviction 100% of the time instead of trying to find the truth.


Is this about Japan? Rounded up they do have a 100% conviction rate.
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Total_Lost2
08/31/19 6:49:22 PM
#18:


MabusIncarnate posted...
Wasn't there a Kevin Spacey movie about this, and anti-capital punishment activists?


The Life of David Gale
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ChocoboMogALT
08/31/19 6:49:34 PM
#19:


Annihilated posted...
Is it more okay to incarcerate innocent people?
I think it's more ok to incarcerate them than execute them, absolutely. We do hold people for trial. When wrongful convictions are overturned, there is usually some form of compensation.

Would you rather be wrongfully covicted and executed or sentenced to life in prison?

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UnfairRepresent
08/31/19 6:53:08 PM
#20:


I've literally never heard a pragmatic rational argument in favor of the Death Penalty.

And I've been listening out for one intently for over 20 years.

All I ever hear is emotional rhetoric. "These are bad people! They deserve to die! Wouldn't you want to kill someone who raped your daughter!" no actual reason or logic.
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Annihilated
08/31/19 6:53:37 PM
#21:


ChocoboMogALT posted...
Annihilated posted...
Is it more okay to incarcerate innocent people?
I think it's more ok to incarcerate them than execute them, absolutely. We do hold people for trial. When wrongful convictions are overturned, there is usually some form of compensation.

Would you rather be wrongfully covicted and executed or sentenced to life in prison?


I'd rather be executed, easily. It's far more humane than serving multiple lifetimes in prison. You still get the opportunity to appeal, which pretty much all inmates do anyway, but at that point your odds are already close to zero. Fix the legal process, and then we can talk about punishment.
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Zikten
08/31/19 6:54:35 PM
#22:


this is why I oppose the death penalty.
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Antifar
08/31/19 6:59:42 PM
#23:


Annihilated posted...
No it's not. It does not mention any comparison to non death convictions. It could be a lot less.

Whether it's less than non-death convictions doesn't seem particularly important; the point is that the error rate is entirely too high for sentencing people to death.
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ForsakenHermit
08/31/19 7:01:01 PM
#24:


As someone who believes that the death penalty should be restricted to cases of genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes, crimes against humanity, crimes against peace, terrorism related mass murder, and treason/sedition in war time I think it's a mistake to pursue it for simple murder and other more base level crimes.
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PleaseClap
08/31/19 8:12:15 PM
#25:


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IHeartRadiation
08/31/19 8:12:52 PM
#26:


Zikten posted...
this is why I oppose the death penalty.
I was more of a "spending the rest of your life rotting in a max security prison is worse than being put to sleep like someone's old dog" but this is a very good reason also.

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TheGleamEyes
08/31/19 8:19:05 PM
#27:


Topic could also have been viewed as: 96% of people sentenced to death are actually guilty.

96% is an A(+) grade.
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ClockworkHare
08/31/19 8:26:55 PM
#28:


ChocoboMogALT posted...
Annihilated posted...
Is it more okay to incarcerate innocent people?
I think it's more ok to incarcerate them than execute them, absolutely. We do hold people for trial. When wrongful convictions are overturned, there is usually some form of compensation.

No. They usually DON'T. That's actually one of the number one controversies related to false allegations. The accused victims typically get no compensation for false imprisonment, loss of livelihood, and ruined reputations.

Not everyone falsely accused has been lucky enough to have their exoneration stories hit the news and sympathetically received. A very minuscule fraction of them do...mere drops in a corrupted bucket.
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RunAwayCaterpie
08/31/19 8:36:33 PM
#29:


TheGleamEyes posted...
96% is an A(+) grade.
It depends on the teacher. It might be an A.

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Prismsblade
08/31/19 8:41:15 PM
#30:


UnfairRepresent posted...
I've literally never heard a pragmatic rational argument in favor of the Death Penalty.

And I've been listening out for one intently for over 20 years.

All I ever hear is emotional rhetoric. "These are bad people! They deserve to die! Wouldn't you want to kill someone who raped your daughter!" no actual reason or logic.

In our system your punished accordingly depending on the severity of your crime. The highest form of which being the death panalty.

The argument though is weather or not most would consider life in prison>death panalty or vise versa. Which is not the case honestly if you ask most people and criminals themselves so while you can argue its subjective if most people would rather choose life then death is almost objectively the worse of the two.
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Irony
08/31/19 8:42:19 PM
#31:


So 1 person
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WaterGod469
08/31/19 8:51:23 PM
#32:


WilliamPorygon posted...
Well that's what happens when you have a system that's based on trying to get a conviction 100% of the time instead of trying to find the truth.


Played Phoenix Wright recently?
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Crazyman93
08/31/19 8:52:50 PM
#33:


So that means 96% are guilty and deserve it.
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Crepes
08/31/19 10:59:47 PM
#34:


Crazyman93 posted...
So that means 96% are guilty and deserve it.


Yeah. As a nation we (well you as I'm a Brit) have to decide if 4% of people placed on death road being innocent is an acceptable price to pay for something that's been categorically proven to NOT reduce crimes resorting in said people being placed on death road in the first place!
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mooreandrew58
08/31/19 11:44:34 PM
#35:


ChocoboMogALT posted...
Paragon21XX posted...
How many of those were convicted in the past 20 years and later exonerated, after modern day forensics came into play in capital trials?
Plenty of modern convictions are based on flimsy assumptions that modern foresics are infallible. People hear "partial prints" or "trace DNA" and think it's open and shut when the truth is those are just supporting pieces. People also accept police statements as gospel, even when they conflict with facts.

Shows like CSI and NCIS have has a notable impact on jury convictions, even though they are fiction. Then there are shows like Cops which are literally police propaganda.


When i was in jury duty the DA did give a lecure about CSI and law and order being fiction and not factual when it came to how shit actually works.

I support the death penalty but feel it should only be applied if the person is 100% without a doubt guilty.
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#36
Post #36 was unavailable or deleted.
pikachupwnage
08/31/19 11:48:14 PM
#37:


ChocoboMogALT posted...
I think it's more ok to incarcerate them than execute them, absolutely. We do hold people for trial. When wrongful convictions are overturned, there is usually some form of compensation.

Would you rather be wrongfully covicted and executed or sentenced to life in prison?


I would rather die

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PleaseClap
09/01/19 5:39:51 PM
#38:


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PMarth2002
09/01/19 5:50:41 PM
#39:


I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.
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divot1338
09/01/19 5:56:16 PM
#40:


And the 4% figure is for a class of convictions where the justice system goes to extraordinary lengths to ensure accuracy.

What does that say about the rest of the justice system?
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hockeybub89
09/01/19 5:57:08 PM
#41:


PMarth2002 posted...
I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.

The easiest solution is to not have the death penalty
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Annihilated
09/01/19 6:02:03 PM
#42:


hockeybub89 posted...
PMarth2002 posted...
I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.

The easiest solution is to not have the death penalty


And the easiest way to fix conviction rates is to not have a prison.
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creativerealms
09/01/19 6:02:44 PM
#43:


I'm glad it's that low but I wish it was zero.
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hockeybub89
09/01/19 6:03:06 PM
#44:


Annihilated posted...
hockeybub89 posted...
PMarth2002 posted...
I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.

The easiest solution is to not have the death penalty


And the easiest way to fix conviction rates is to not have a prison.

Uh that's not easy or feasible.
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Shablagoo
09/01/19 6:04:31 PM
#45:


Conservatives: let God sort them out
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creativerealms
09/01/19 6:04:47 PM
#46:


Annihilated posted...
hockeybub89 posted...
PMarth2002 posted...
I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.

The easiest solution is to not have the death penalty


And the easiest way to fix conviction rates is to not have a prison.

With a false conviction/arrest there is always the chance the person will be fond innocent and released. However if the person is given the death penalty and then found innocent? No going back from that.
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Annihilated
09/01/19 6:05:44 PM
#47:


hockeybub89 posted...
Annihilated posted...
hockeybub89 posted...
PMarth2002 posted...
I'm pro-death penalty, but i would support some serious reform to try and bring that number down. Its unacceptable.

The easiest solution is to not have the death penalty


And the easiest way to fix conviction rates is to not have a prison.

Uh that's not easy or feasible.


Oh, it has to be feasible now?
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PleaseClap
09/01/19 6:06:36 PM
#48:


Annihilated posted...
And the easiest way to fix conviction rates is to not have a prison.
This was not a good rebuttal

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Antifar
09/01/19 6:07:35 PM
#49:


creativerealms posted...
I'm glad it's that low but I wish it was zero.

It does not strike me as low!
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MudKip_Master
09/01/19 6:09:22 PM
#50:


Could be.
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