Poll of the Day > My AI predicts these are the future prices of bitcoin

(+) Yeah! (+)

Starting right nowish, 4:15 - 4:30, for the next 3.75 hours, with 15 minute intervals.

I will see if it's close enough in the morning. I'm too lazy to set it back 4 hours ago, because that's not the way I coded it, and I don't feel like changing it.

9951.159
9956.894
9970.048
9988.161
10006.453
10021.005
10028.602
10029.345
10026.519
10022.837
10021.463
10023.227
10024.11
10022.17
10020.303

https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin
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There's no such thing as an assured investment...

Don't speculate unless you really know what you're doing.

VioletZer0 posted...

There's no such thing as an assured investment...

Don't speculate unless you really know what you're doing.

Ya, just look at what happened to Ethereum
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VioletZer0 posted...

There's no such thing as an assured investment...

Don't speculate unless you really know what you're doing.

I'm running the trading bot that I wrote myself, I've interacted with official blockchain servers, I know every fee and where every fee goes.

I don't get where you think I don't know what I'm doing. Anyway, it's not very close atm. This is my first test, and I'm not trusting it with a cent until I've simulated it working correctly.

I am not counting on it being able to predict the price accurately. My next plan is to have it try and predict the difference in value between other types of currencies. After that I'll find ways to simplify the data before feeding it to an AI.
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I'm sorry I didn't mean to imply that you don't know what you're doing...

That's just a generalized warning regarding speculation.

VioletZer0 posted...

I'm sorry I didn't mean to imply that you don't know what you're doing...

That's just a generalized warning regarding speculation.

Whoops, I'm in GFaqs argue mode. And coming down off caffeine. I need to remember to not be such a prick.

Yeah, I don't invest anything I can't afford to lose. I've been working on this for the better part of a year. I feel a bit like an alchemist. If anything I walk away knowing how to use Python and Neural networks, and that's going to look good on my resume, so not too much is on the line.
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Yellow posted...

If humans can do it, a neural network can do it.

Who said humans can do it... reliably?

I'm still not convinced on cryptocurrencies beyond speculative fun... at least in Australia where I live, there's still a lot of hurdles to actually being able to use it/realise gains, and that's before you get taxed as a capital asset. I did have some fragments of coins mined and have used it to buy software online (eg Displayfusion) but otherwise I don't put real money into it...
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After a little tweaking, it works a little better.

BitCoin at January 02, 2018 03:15:00 (am)
Current price: 13452
Predicted price: 13280.0
Actual future price: 13415
Error is 0.049328848597268805

It correctly predicted it would go down. Not as much as it thought, but it did.

Main caveat: it takes 40 minutes to predict the next 15 minutes. (That's why I only have this one example) I can optimize this better, though. I can also transform the data so values between 7000-13000 are much further apart, meaning it might guess more accurately in that range.

I also have a backup plan to have it only analyze price differences, as I only care about their prices relative to each other.

I also know why (certain) other projects have failed at this point. The reason why is incredibly stupid. :P

People use OHLC (open high low close) data. The close value is the same as the next open. People use both the columns in their training data, allowing the NN to "cheat" and just take the value from the day's close as the next "open".

I read a whole article explaining how machine learning couldn't predict the market, and they all had this exact problem, they just chucked the whole OHLC dataset in the algorithm, and concluded that it's an alchemist's task.

Anyone familiar with the market should know a little what I'm trying to say here.
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gloBal enemy posted...

Yellow posted...

If humans can do it, a neural network can do it.

Who said humans can do it... reliably?

I'm still not convinced on cryptocurrencies beyond speculative fun... at least in Australia where I live, there's still a lot of hurdles to actually being able to use it/realise gains, and that's before you get taxed as a capital asset. I did have some fragments of coins mined and have used it to buy software online (eg Displayfusion) but otherwise I don't put real money into it...

Frankly I don't understand "why" Bitcoin exists either. It's just "there".

It's absolutely not a long term investment though. No one knows what Bitcoin is going to do. If they make money, they got lucky.
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Yellow posted...

It's absolutely not a long term investment though. No one knows what Bitcoin is going to do. If they make money, they got lucky.

Someone told me it's really only good for people who already have money or got in on it way back in the day before it really became well known.

I say it's been known to wreck computers from what I hear and really costs more to mine than is worth it. But that's just based on stuff I've heard so I could be wrong.

Now you got people making games trying to hid bitcoin miners in them. What a time to be alive. lol

Remember when people were saying Enron was a sure thing

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God training takes such a long time. Too bad we don't have dedicated hardware yet. I figured out how to checkpoint and resume training, so there's that. I've read posts that recommend training for months.

So the datasets I'm using are just the plain OHLC datasets I downloaded. I could make one dataset that contains just the close data for each currency and train on that. That would give the AI the ability to cross analyze data, make connections between them. As it stands my NN seems to be very hit or miss, definitely not accurate enough to even bother running a simulation. This is exactly what I expected.

I've seen another AI dev post his AI stock recommendations on Reddit. It eventually started getting downvotes as his recommendations weren't good, so this isn't really an established science, even to those who know the most about AI.

Also, if it was, it wouldn't be very useful, as not everyone can make money off the stock market. You have to have the edge over other people as you're competing with them, not cooperating. As such, I would probably never release my algorithm, unless it doesn't work, and I wanted to impress some job recruiter. That goes absolutely for an investment that's based on nothing, like cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies values are based 100% on investor faith, and therefore are 100% not a cooperative game.

Tl Dr, any effective crypto-prediction algorithm would, interestingly, immediately stop working if it was released to the public. Therefore there is probably no public example of a working algorithm anywhere on the internet. That's good, because I hate using other people's code.

Crypto-currencies being based entirely based off human faith and emotions makes me want to find a dataset that has human emotions over time in it. A possible start to that might be going to the r/Stocks post and downloading every post. It might be worth investigating who has the most influence over Bitcoin (who owns the most Bitcoin), where they get their news from, what influences their decisions.

There is an estimated 17,868,662.5 Bitcoin * $10,000 average value, for a total of $178,686,625,000 of Bitcoin owned by people.

https://www.btcnn.com/who-owns-most-bitcoins/

Chinese Bitcoin mining farms supposedly own 81 percent of all Bitcoin. I should train a model using their news outlets as an input. I need some outside influence information to let my ai do its work.
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Are you doing this for a project? For fun? To actually make money?
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gloBal enemy posted...

Are you doing this for a project? For fun? To actually make money?

To make money.

I hate my job so much I just contemplate other ways to make money all day.
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Yellow posted...

gloBal enemy posted...

Are you doing this for a project? For fun? To actually make money?

To make money.

I hate my job so much I just contemplate other ways to make money all day.

What do you do?
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I slice deli meats.

I actually don't have an excuse as to why I don't have a better job.
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Well good on you for at least using your spare time for something productive. Hope it pays off.

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He bought?

Dump it.
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Miroku_of_Nite1 posted...

He bought?

Dump it.

huh?

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gloBal enemy posted...

Miroku_of_Nite1 posted...

He bought?

Dump it.

huh?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KV5QlSgq7lg" data-time="
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Yellow posted...

If humans can do it, a neural network can do it.

Not really, no. If that were true the world would look very different right now.

I've found that long-term memory NNs don't take into account long-term "inflation" very well. Aka, a currency that was $5 a year ago, worth $100 today, completely throws off everything the NN knows about the currency, causing it to predict a random value between $5 and $100. This is because it's predicting absolute values, with no sense of relativity. In our minds, the pattern may carry over, but in this NN 200 is a different dimension than 20.

The goal here is not to predict the exact values, it's to predict the value relative to the previous value.

The solution might be to generate a dataset that has the values in differences by percentage points. instead of

100, 100, 200, 150

it could be

n/a, 100%, 200%, 75%

This would eliminate the factor of inflation. It makes me think that a any proper NN should always be used to predict relative values, never absolute ones. That makes more sense, a real human always thinks in relative terms.

Sardanapallus posted...

Yellow posted...

If humans can do it, a neural network can do it.

Not really, no. If that were true the world would look very different right now.

And if it is possible the world will possibly look very different in the future.
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idk, man, the only safe investment is guns and canned food.


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Is it bad that I'm constantly thinking of ways to turn an AI into a sentient being? It does all kinds of things that people do, it just doesn't know how to self adjust, and no one knows how to tie it together, on top if taking a bit more than a computer nerd to understand how a human actually calculates the next thought it's going to have.

Also, computers are impressively shitty at emulating neurons. I'm emulating 160 neurons. It takes an hour to guess anything. The human brain has 100 billion neurons. I might give writing a new library a shot at some point, but it's likely entirely new hardware will be needed. It might take an AI itself to design this software/hardware.

I want all of you to understand that anything in the news you hear about revolutionary new AI that learned its own language and plotted to take over the world, on top of becoming a nazi, is total bullshit. The technology is not here yet. Cleverbot is nothing more than a glorified search engine, and everything Google comes up with is as well. I've seen their processing units, they're only marginally better than GPUs.
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Yellow posted...

Is it bad that I'm constantly thinking of ways to turn an AI into a sentient being? It does all kinds of things that people do, it just doesn't know how to self adjust, and no one knows how to tie it together, on top if taking a bit more than a computer nerd to understand how a human actually calculates the next thought it's going to have.

Also, computers are impressively shitty at emulating neurons. I'm emulating 160 neurons. It takes an hour to guess anything. The human brain has 100 billion neurons. I might give writing a new library a shot at some point, but it's likely entirely new hardware will be needed. It might take an AI itself to design this software/hardware.

I want all of you to understand that anything in the news you hear about revolutionary new AI that learned its own language and plotted to take over the world, on top of becoming a nazi, is total bullshit. The technology is not here yet. Cleverbot is nothing more than a glorified search engine, and everything Google comes up with is as well. I've seen their processing units, they're only marginally better than GPUs.

Enough of your liheral drivel. Go do something productive like clean the roaches out of your AC.

TBH you lost me in your comments but you sound smart enough... so why are you working as a deli meat slicer?

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