Board 8 > Board 8 National Football League League (B8NFLL) Season 11: Offseason Part II

(+) Yeah! (+)

Now down to four user teams who have yet to sign any rookies. Even if everyone sends me what they plan to do a minute from now, I am still going to use the full deadline so that free agency begins after the holiday season.
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I messaged Jablax and Smitty again. Tony did say to me a few days ago to message him the link and he'd respond.

Smitty I only know through Jablax so I only see him talk in group chat but hopefully he'll respond too. I did message him directly rather than group chat this time.

Safety bump

Merry Christmas
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Bah humbug
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Down to three user teams with no rookie signings
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Im eagerly awaiting your pre season predictions after free agency

I know my division is tough but I think I made a case to improve, and we didnt have that bad of a season last season either
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I am thinking second for me. Didn't really improve my team in the offseason and the Ravens are a better team on paper than me. Kinda baffling how they have underperformed in recent years and AI management might fix that.

I made some poor decisions in hindsight this offseason. I should have tendered CB McGuire higher as I forgot how well he performed. That would have freed up my higher 2nd pick. The QB Smith for WR Murdock trade looks bad too as I was able to draft a QB late and he isn't much better than my next QB up whilst my WR3 is going to be poor this year and I could have made the cap work. I don't know how productive Smith has been in the past as I know KCF values performance over rating.

I think going forward I'm relying on my defense to remain solid (I am basically returning the same defense and got a few bumps over last year) and then praying for some development from younger offensive players (and for Turner to not toss 20+ INTs again). Despite my team being young, given my cap situation and what I've done in recent years with draft picks (i.e. not have them), I don't think I am set up that well going forward. I don't think I'll be awful but I also don't think I'll be much more battling for lower playoff seeds for the foreseeable future

I wait until after the preseason to do my predictions.
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I had a dream that other users were running the draft, and they screwed up so spectacularly that I just simply quit B8NFLL. What a nightmare!
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On this sheet there's all the known OVRs of rookies so far for anyone who cares (on the S11 Draft tab). I don't typically add them to positions part until after their rookie season is complete mainly because it would be a pain in the ass but also because rookies tend to change a lot in rating I think

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16WZKE19Qs5P2FSdBlutpOGX-uHOwWz_65AaAvYFH270/edit#gid=713857929

Also there's the 2014 draft on this sheet with updated ratings in case anyone wants to compare between drafts. I'll probably merge the two together at some point.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HThHr6ylMK7G5-_umdYlMtf_sR9JrOn9ojv3HgaGncU/edit#gid=2134716470

You'll notice they are laid out differently. That's because going forward I plan on tracking their year on year rating rather than overwriting so we can see how they progressed. Wish I had done that last year. I guess I could roll back the spreadsheet...

Screw it, I'm going to add in the rating changes on that second spreadsheet now otherwise it will drive me crazy

Ok all done. Quick summary (Note these are based on projections not actual draft position)

1st rounders - Had a lot of players staying static but the ones who did rise seemed more prone to larger rises (+3 or more). Probably due more playing time than other rookies and also having a higher starting base so more likely to perform better? WR A.J Green was clearly the star with a +7 rise making him the only rookie to break 90 (91 rated, next highest rookie 89). G Gabe Jackson (80 > 86) and CB Stephon Gilmore (79 > 85) both got rises of +6.

2nd rounders - Had more risers than 1st rounders but most rises were smaller (+1-2) and there were also more who dropped in rating. I'd imagine this is because their starting rating put most as fringe starters so they got less playing time. K Graham Gano jumped 80 > 88 but the next biggest risers were OT Eric Fisher (78 > 81) and C Matt Paradis (81 > 84). CB David Amerson (77 > 73) suffered the most substantial drop of any rookie whilst DE Cameron Hayward (78 > 75) also suffered a large drop.

3rd rounders - A mixed bag. It had a lot of large risers G Eric Boling (76 > 84), MLB Christian Jones (75 > 80), MLB Zach Orr (75 > 80), TE Eric Ebron (79 > 84), SS Deone Buchanon (80 > 84) but also had the most decreases (7) with DE Da'Quan Bowers (75 > 72) suffering the worst.

4th rounders - Again a mixed bad on rises/falls but overall a very successful round. It had 10 risers of 3 or more which matches the first round. TE Tim Wright (76 > 83), DT Sealver Siliga (75 > 82), CB Curtis Brown (73 > 79), C Weston Richburg (76 > 81), C Corey Linsley (75 > 80) were the most successful risers. DE Byron Carter (74 > 71) and OT David Quessenberry (75 > 72) suffered the biggest drops. The 1st round was the most successful in terms of starters but 4th round was probably the next up considering the value of a 4th round pick and the sheer number of large risers. I'd suspect it's partially due to the lower starting rating so any player stepping in to a successful unit or seeing major playing time saw large jumps.

5th rounders - The vast majority of this round suffered increases. Again I'd suspect it's due to the low starting rating making it easier to see small rookies bumps. There were a few standouts in P Jacob Schum (74 > 81), G Antoine Spoto (74 > 79), OLB Ray Jeffries (74 > 79), SS Kenny Vaccaro (76 > 80) and C Wesley Johnson (71 > 75). Not many people dropped in rating but of the ones that did OLB Michael Hoover (75 > 72) was the largest.

6th rounder - A round of small risers basically across the board without many standouts. Lower starting OVR making it easier to rise etc. SS Terrell Woods (74 > 78), DE Ron Snell (69 > 72) and DE Anthony Gilbert (71 > 74) were the only rises of 3 or more. The only drops were 1-2 and there were only 2 of them.

7th rounders - Similar pattern to the 6th with rises across the board although there were a few larger jumps. FS Shelton Kelly (70 > 77), WR Kevin Owen (68 > 73) and WR Kevin James (69 > 73) were all rises of +4 or more. There were also 5 players who jumped +3. DE Dontae Fisher (63 > 62) was the only person who dropped in rating.

I'm about 99% certain that Schum was a 7th rounder and that I erroneously put an 82 for Siliga.
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Those are based on their initial projections rather than where they were actually drafted because that's what I had available to me. This year I recorded draft positions but last year I didn't and I didn't feel like looking up the log and putting all that info in.

What I did notice is that some positions are far more prone to rises than others.

13 QBs drafted. 10 rose. 3 static
15 HBs drafted. 11 rose. 4 static
18 WRs drafted. 16 rose. 2 static
19 Gs drafted. 17 rose. 2 static.
10 Cs drafted. 10 rose.
8 TEs drafted. 7 rose. 1 static.

17 OTs drafted. 9 rose. 5 static. 3 fell.
18 DEs drafted. 10 rose. 4 static. 4 fell (but 3 of them -3)
19 OLBs drafted. 7 rose. 5 static. 7 fell.
21 CBs drafted. 7 rose. 8 static. 6 fell.

the reciever I traded to KCF had a good boost. I think it was a +5, think it was tavon austin
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He was a 4th rounder and jumped 76 > 79

KCF0107 posted...

I'm about 99% certain that Schum was a 7th rounder and that I erroneously put an 82 for Siliga.

Actually, Siliga was a 74 on the spreadsheet, so I don't know who you thought was Siliga and an 82.
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You didn't correct him?

My position comparisons sheet has him at 82 and those values are 100% copy pasted from your sheet. I could have sworn I also checked your sheet yesterday after you mentioned it and it said 82 but maybe not

Maybe you corrected it when you did contract renewals or the Vikings trades?

Also when I get home I think I'm going to look up those AI draft predictions from last season where it says who your best player of the draft was and KCF notes if it wasn't your top pick. Be interesting to see how they fared last season rating wise and maybe KCF can chip in if any of them had notable production differences

I'm sure playing time factors a lot into this but seems Madden had more misses than hits on what it said was the best pick if it wasn't the first pick.

Bills' First - CB Desmond Trufant (81 > 81)
Bills' Best - QB Derek Carr (81 > 83)

Chiefs' First - SS Andrew Sendejo (85 > 85)
Chiefs' Best - CB David Amerson (77 > 73)

Falcons' First - OLB Pernell McPhee (80 > 82)
Falcons' Best - HB Alfred Morris (80 > 80)

49ers' First - G Trai Turner (84 > 87)
49ers' Best - QB Bryce Rivers (79 > 80)

Giants' First - G David Decastro (82 > 83)
Giants' Best - QB Landry Jones (78 > 79)

Jets' First - C Maurkice Pouncey (85 > 87)
Jets' Best - QB Mike Glennon (79 > 81)

Panthers' First - G Danny Watkins (75 > 77)
Panthers' Best - QB Ernie Smith (74 > 74)

Raiders' First - MLB Lavonte David (81 > 82)
Raiders' Best - QB Blake Bortles (80 > 81)

Wildcats' First - DE Robert Quinn (83 > 83)
Wildcats' Best - DT Tyson Alualu (80 > 79)

KCF however was pretty money with a lot of his predictions of who would do well in his 3 picks he liked in each round

1st Round
WR Julio Jones (87 > 89)
HB Mark Ingram (86 > 86) - I believe he got injured very early, possibly even preseason
DT Michael Brockers (80 > 82)

2nd Round
MLB Chris Borland (79 > 82)
FS Ha-ha Clinton Dix (81 > 81)
WR Julian Edelman (80 > 81)

3rd Round
C Travis Frederick (79 > 81)
SS Deone Buchanon (80 > 84)
TE Eric Ebron (79 > 84)

4th Round
OLB Avery Williamson (76 > 79)
SS Kenny Vaccarro (76 > 80)
C Bryan Stork (75 > 77)

5th Round
WR Chris Hogan (75 > 76)
HB Kenjon Barner (74 > 76)
MLB Rob Thomas (72 > 72)

6th Round
HB Dri Archer (70 > 72)
MLB Sam Krause (70 > 71)
DT Chris Watters (72 > 72)

7th Round
P Jacob Schum (74 > 81)
SS Jermaine O'Leske (71 > 74)
SS Charles Ogden (70 > 70)

Good lord, looking at my draft history I knew it was bad but I didn't realize it was this bad.

During my reign, the Steelers have had:

5 1st Round Picks
1 is a starter
1 is a high OVR backup
1 was cut
2 were traded away (1 trade was a reluctant trade of an elite starter and returned 2 starters)

7 2nd Round Picks
2 are starters (with 1 being a rookie)
4 are backups (1 rookie)
1 was traded away

7 3rd Round Picks
1 is a starter
2 are backups (both rookies)
3 were traded away (1 borderline starter as WR3)
1 was lost in RFA (and was a starter)

6 4th Round Picks
1 is a starter
4 are backups (2 rookies)
1 was traded away

3 5th Round Picks
2 are backups (1 rookie)
1 was not resigned after 2nd contract (after a few years of on and off starts at WR3)

4 6th Round Picks
1 is a special teamer
2 were not resigned after rookie deal
1 was not signed as a rookie

5 7th Round Picks
2 are backups (1 rookie, 1 on 2nd contract)
2 were not resigned after rookie year
1 was not signed as a rookie

So out of 37 picks I have yielded 5 current starters (6 if you are generous and include special teams) and 4 more who started but were traded/RFA'ed/not resigned after 2 contracts.

If you discount rookies I have 4 current starters (5 with special teams) and 8 backups from 29 picks.

If you want to go off pure ratings. I have produced 10 players of 80+, 5 players of 85+ and 2 of 90+ from 29 picks (including rookies would not be very fair). Plus 1 pick went on to break 80 after I traded him but very likely would not have done had he stayed with me.

Actually a better screenshot of my management style

Likely starting composition of the Steelers (in my 6th season)

6 were drafted
6 were inherited
8 acquired via trade
3 acquired in RFA
3 acquired in FA

bump
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Bumpers
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I assume no response from Jablax yet? I did poke him on Facebook 2 days ago

No response yet
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Just spoken to him. He says he will do it when he gets to a wifi spot. He's apparently in El Salvador now which I assume has worse wifi than Guatemala as he specifically said 'safe' wifi. Rather him than me!