Board 8 > The Show EP 9 - Tifa Shocks Seph, GotY Announcement, Time to Retire Link? w/ KP

(+) Yeah! (+)

At least we'll always have those Ten Minutes Of Heaven.
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I don't know if you do a post contest The Show but if you do and I manage to hold on to 1st place, I'd be happy to come on

Ten Minutes in the Sacred Realm

(That would actually be a good name for a short Zelda podcast.)
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The Mario/Samus rematch is only the third match this contest where the registered user bonus actually changed the result of the match. Samus would have won by 448 votes if we went strictly by the raw votes, but Mario won by 467 votes with the registered users. This means Mario ends up winning by 19 votes.

This match is one of the largest splits between registered/anonymous users so far. Mario did almost 7% better with registered users compared to anonymous users. In the first Mario/Samus match, the difference was only about 3% between registered/anonymous users. This makes me think that the Samus rally on the Metroid subreddit actually had a noticeable impact on the match.
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@KamikazePotato

In the post above this one, I posted an analysis of the Mario/Samus rematch. My conclusion is that the result of the first match is more accurate and wouldn't have changed much in a rematch. I would recommend using the first match in any adjusted X-Stats you plan on doing.

The Cloud/Crono rematch is also somewhat tainted by the rally too. Going off the anonymous user results in the Cloud/Crono rematch suggests Cloud was probably a huge favorite among the rallied votes. I could see the rally inflating Cloud's percentage by about half a percent. It makes sense that the Samus rally would help Cloud more than Crono since Cloud is more recognizable due to being in Smash.
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So the Samus votes were all Metroid subreddit based, no one went wild for her on the hentai boards?


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Ngamer64 posted...

So the Samus votes were all Metroid subreddit based, no one went wild for her on the hentai boards?

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77285966/913871231

That's the user who normally posts the hentai rallies and he was busy that day, so he couldn't post them. Nanis has also posted some hentai rallies for Zelda in an earlier match against Mario, but he didn't show up to post hentai rallies for Samus.
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KamikazePotato posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

squexa posted...

So about retiring Link...

Give it another half an hour.

And that's all she wrote.

Still worth it!
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ShatteredElysium posted...

I don't know if you do a post contest The Show but if you do and I manage to hold on to 1st place, I'd be happy to come on

We do, we'll see how the schedule looks for next week and keep you in mind.

HEY I didn't see anyone mention it but did you notice that we have rotating pics for this matchup (and hopefully all others going forward)? Great job by SB for making that happen, hopefully we can do the same but maybe a round or two earlier next time, to help limit the unfair pic complaints.


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There are 4 rotating pics each for Link and Zelda today (and also rotating backgrounds). There were rotating pics (2 each) for the winner's semifinals as well. I'm guessing all days with only one match running will have them.

Now that I've finally listened to the rest, there's two things I wanted to say (besides the standard compliments - speaking of which, keep on keepin' on!):

For one, I personally wasn't all that surprised by Mario/Samus, due mainly to the breakdown of hierarchies this contest, and Samus otherwise looking better than Mario. My Analysis Crew guest write-up for their first match explains my logic further in depth.

Also, while late-contest wonkiness absolutely happens, 1997 vs. 2001 isn't the best match to prove it, due to 1997's vastly disadvantageous match picture.

I meant to comment in the last topic that it is tragic that my first ever shoutout on The Show ended up being a case of mistaken identity! (I know haloiscoolisbak copped to being the culprit, but for the record, I thought that the Legends and Losers brackets would be wild, and I had no confidence in my ability to predict them. Still, I never dreamed some of these upsets would happen.)

I must strenuously disagree with the idea that Link should be taken out before having an All-Fictional-Character Contest. Indeed, I think removing Link neutralizes what has always been the strongest argument in favor of such a contest, that Link is so overwhelmingly strong, so clearly beyond the reach of the characters hes trounced time and again, that we simply must expand the field to see if Batman/Vader/Spiderman/Goku/Whoever can take a crack at him. (This was probably the best argument for multi-ways too.) It is far from clear that a Linkless bracket two and a half years from now will be so predictable that we will need an extra infusion of excitement in the form of non video game characters. The battle for supremacy between Mario, Samus, and Zelda will be wild enough. (Add Cloud or Snake if youre more bullish on their chances, subtract Zelda if you think she falls off a cliff, maybe add Pikachu if you think he gets another huge boost). In a bracket with Link, there is a much more compelling case for introducing heavy hitters who can draw upon reserves of nostalgia which new game characters cannot.

If Link were taken out of a regular character battle, you could accurately describe him as Champion Emeritus. But he has never won an All-Fictional Character Contest, and I think equating the two does a disservice to the revolutionary potential of expanding the field. This may come off as a mere semantic matter, but I am not trying to be obtuse, and I would agree in considering Link the favorite in such a contest. I would just like to see one pure EVERYONE IS HERE! contest before we decide this new class of character is just as doomed as Cloud, Mario, and the rest and remove Link.

It is true that Link could still face the champion of the bracket in a separate Grand Finals match, but the only way he would face a non-VG character there is if one won the entire bracket. We would miss all kinds of wacky arguments, like whether or not Link overperformed on Darth Vader due to SoulCaliber SFF and whether or not that meant Batman still had a shot. We might also see a bonus poll, but I'm not sure people necessarily vote the same way in bonus polls that they would in actual contest matches. We could end up without any real stats gauging Links direct strength against non-VG characters, which I would consider a pity.
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Probably my favorite line from this episode was from KP: "If you throw out all the GameFAQs votes on the contest on gamefaqs.com, he wins!"

I also got a kick out of the discussion on pic sabotage.

Yo: If you want to pic sabotage Mario, give Samus a cool picture charging up her shot and give Mario FLUDD. If she can't get it done then, it's not happening.
KP: And if you want to do the opposite, give Mario his sprite and give Samus your favorite picture from Other M: Flashback Samus, Baby Samus, Samus on the ground crying over Adam, take your pick.
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Listened to the episode while I was at work, so no running commentary. Great episode as usual though, everyone.
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Thanks for the support guys. Always means a lot!
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This is true, I'd be down for keeping Link in the main bracket in an All Fictional scenario. For the same reason I'd want to see the new characters mixed in throughout instead of stuck on their own side, Male/Female style.


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Here's something I posted in the Stats Topic:

LusterSoldier posted...

Link vs. Zelda
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 5787 (62.18%)
Zelda - 3520 (37.82%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 6825 (66.06%)
Zelda - 3507 (33.94%)

Zelda does almost 4% better with registered users, but that's because of the Zelda bandwagon near the start of the match. If we ignored the first 12 hours of votes, Link would have gotten 66.52% on Zelda instead. That suggests the Zelda bandwagon was strong enough to inflate her performance by about 3%.

Removing the first 12 hours of votes also gives Link 65.38% with registered users and 68.14% with anonymous users, which is only slightly less than a 3% difference instead.

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Ngamer64 posted...

For the same reason I'd want to see the new characters mixed in throughout instead of stuck on their own side, Male/Female style.

I agree 100%.
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hylianknight3 posted...

Ngamer64 posted...

For the same reason I'd want to see the new characters mixed in throughout instead of stuck on their own side, Male/Female style.

I agree 100%.

Yep, definitely agreed on this. I wouldn't even be interested in an all-fictional character battle if the characters originating from other mediums were segregated from the video game-originating characters. Also, even though he would just dominate everyone else, I'll reluctantly concede that Link deserves to be in the first all-fictional field.

KP I have no recollection of recommending Persona 3 FES to you but I will gladly take the credit, happy I have changed your life for the better (or worse?)

thanks to KP and Leon for putting so much work into the X-Stats, hearing KP talk about how much thought goes into them gives me a new outlook on how arbitrary and weird assembling them is. you guys get it pretty close to right every year and I have no idea how you do that.
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a lot of luck
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ZenOfThunder posted...

you guys get it pretty close to right every year and I have no idea how you do that.

This is how it looks:


This is how it really is:
http://www.nicedarts.com/iStock_000004700542XSmall.jpg
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I mean, that pretty much describes all Engineering work.

Cloud managed to complete his salty runback against Mario that first started 16 years ago. It took us about 16 years to get another 1v1 Cloud/Mario match, and they also haven't faced each other in 4-ways or 3-ways either. Cloud pulled off his salty runback by out-rallying Mario. Here were the rallies that I spotted for both characters.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5d7oi/cloud_vs_mario_on_gamefaqs_best_character_contest/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5mcg4/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasyVII/comments/a5m7a5/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FFRecordKeeper/comments/a5m2ko/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/

https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/a5lym2/mario_vs_cloud_on_gamefaqs_vote_now/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperMarioOdyssey/comments/a5lktb/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Mario/comments/a5lgyw/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/

While the rally on the gaming subreddit was a neutral rally, it was clearly going to favor Mario a lot more than Cloud. The most successful Mario rally was on the Mario subreddit, where it reached the number 1 spot on the subreddit at one point.

Ulti also attempted to rally for Cloud on Twitch by donating money to a streamer who really loves FFVII in exchange for a shout out to his subscribers to go vote for Cloud. The effect of the shout out produced a small spike for Cloud for about 15 minutes, confirming that Twitch rallying is fairly ineffective.

I estimated there were about 800 rallied votes, with about 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. At the 12 hour point in the match before most of the rallying started, Mario had 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is still slightly over a 5% difference.
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I wish we had actually gotten PGCN involved here...
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I'm thankful for KP doing the final X-stats but I'm doubly thankful that he was on last weeks show so we wouldn't have to hear his repetitive complaining/ranting about Mario on the last 1-2 shows
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Number 10, hot off the presses!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77299396


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LusterSoldier posted...

Cloud managed to complete his salty runback against Mario that first started 16 years ago. It took us about 16 years to get another 1v1 Cloud/Mario match, and they also haven't faced each other in 4-ways or 3-ways either. Cloud pulled off his salty runback by out-rallying Mario. Here were the rallies that I spotted for both characters.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5d7oi/cloud_vs_mario_on_gamefaqs_best_character_contest/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasy/comments/a5mcg4/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FinalFantasyVII/comments/a5m7a5/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/
https://www.reddit.com/r/FFRecordKeeper/comments/a5m2ko/cloud_needs_your_help_in_the_gamefaqs_character/

https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/a5lym2/mario_vs_cloud_on_gamefaqs_vote_now/
https://www.reddit.com/r/SuperMarioOdyssey/comments/a5lktb/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/
https://www.reddit.com/r/Mario/comments/a5lgyw/mario_is_losing_in_the_gamefaqs_character_battle/

While the rally on the gaming subreddit was a neutral rally, it was clearly going to favor Mario a lot more than Cloud. The most successful Mario rally was on the Mario subreddit, where it reached the number 1 spot on the subreddit at one point.

Ulti also attempted to rally for Cloud on Twitch by donating money to a streamer who really loves FFVII in exchange for a shout out to his subscribers to go vote for Cloud. The effect of the shout out produced a small spike for Cloud for about 15 minutes, confirming that Twitch rallying is fairly ineffective.

I estimated there were about 800 rallied votes, with about 600 for Cloud and 200 for Mario. At the 12 hour point in the match before most of the rallying started, Mario had 51.91% with registered users and 46.63% with anonymous users, which is still slightly over a 5% difference.

What I'm reading here is that rallies cost me $1000. Thanks B8!

I don't actually care