Current Events > The worst part about this Kavanaugh thing is that it re-energized the right

(+) Yeah! (+)

Alpha218 posted...

You say its the worst part like you arent on the right Coffee

Sorry, I don't ally with religious fundies and psychotic man children.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

You say its the worst part like you arent on the right Coffee

Sorry, I don't ally with religious fundies and psychotic man children.

You literally did when you kept kept defending Kavanaugh even when people repeatedly ripped holes in your arguments

Also Libertarian Party in the US leans right
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Alpha218 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

You say its the worst part like you arent on the right Coffee

Sorry, I don't ally with religious fundies and psychotic man children.

You literally did when you kept kept defending Kavanaugh even when people repeatedly ripped holes in your arguments

Also Libertarian Party in the US leans right

not once did I ever defend Kavanaugh as political views. I've made it very clear from the very beginning that I disagreed with him and thought he did not belong on the Supreme Court. All I defended was his right to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise. And as far as I'm concerned, they've done a very poor job of proving otherwise. I realize that's not politically expedient for Democrats, but that's how Justice works.
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And yes, I know it sounds crazy, but you actually can support the rights of an individual you disagree with. Huge shock.
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Until they get back to duck dynasty
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spudger posted...

Until they get back to duck dynasty

I never understood the draw to that show
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I honestly can't wait til Election night.

It's gonna be like Hillary all over again.
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Whatever happened to Deadliest Catch anyway
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Caution999 posted...

I honestly can't wait til Election night.

It's gonna be like Hillary all over again.

Thank God overconfidence in running away with an election never screwed anyone before.
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If conservaitves win because their party is energized so people go out and vote that's a good thing

It's lack of voting that's bad
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UnfairRepresent posted...

If conservaitves win because their party is energized so people go out and vote that's a good thing

It's lack of voting that's bad

Isn't a lack of voter interest one of the main reasons the ruling party tends to lose midterms
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Coffeebeanz posted...

Isn't a lack of voter interest one of the main reasons the ruling party tends to lose midterms

Pretty much

Its also why liberals tend to use despite most of the population agreeing with them

Old people are ore reliable to vote.

Young people are easily distracted
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Coffeebeanz posted...

Whatever happened to Deadliest Catch anyway

Still going strong
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Well yeah, nothing energizes the right more than defending a rapist.
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matteus70 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Whatever happened to Deadliest Catch anyway

Still going strong

I remember hearing about how one of the major captains actually died during filming or something. Talk about living up to a show's title.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

matteus70 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Whatever happened to Deadliest Catch anyway

Still going strong

I remember hearing about how one of the major captains actually died during filming or something. Talk about living up to a show's title.

Captain Phil had a stroke, ended up dying. Sig had a major heart attack but still fishing
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Antifar posted...

To what extent is it also
1) energizing Democrats
2) alienating more moderate voters?

Polls show that Kavanaugh is on the whole pretty unpopular; I'm not sure we should assume Republicans doing an unpopular thing will work wonders for them. To the extent that this effect won't dissipate if and when he is confirmed.

You know being accused of rape, gang rape, and leading a rape gang tends to do that to your reputation. Unless you are Bill Clinton then you make mad bank.
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Balrog0 posted...

Antifar posted...

To what extent is it also
1) energizing Democrats
2) alienating more moderate voters?

Polls show that Kavanaugh is on the whole pretty unpopular; I'm not sure we should assume Republicans doing an unpopular thing will work wonders for them. To the extent that this effect won't dissipate if and when he is confirmed.

This whole world is about Trump, and people who are dissatisfied with him aren't going to dislike him more for this now.

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Its definitely helping him with Republicans and other groups he did well with, like white dudes and such, though.

Yes, but the general electorate is mostly not Republicans
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Antifar posted...

Balrog0 posted...

Antifar posted...

To what extent is it also
1) energizing Democrats
2) alienating more moderate voters?

Polls show that Kavanaugh is on the whole pretty unpopular; I'm not sure we should assume Republicans doing an unpopular thing will work wonders for them. To the extent that this effect won't dissipate if and when he is confirmed.

This whole world is about Trump, and people who are dissatisfied with him aren't going to dislike him more for this now.

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-approval-rating-ibd-tip-poll/

Its definitely helping him with Republicans and other groups he did well with, like white dudes and such, though.

Yes, but the general electorate is mostly not Republicans

42% of the electorate doesn't vote. Republicans have, until recently, over-performed in terms of Likley Voters vs Registered Voters. That could be attributed to low enthusiasm among the GOP base. So energizing their base might be bad for electoral outcomes.

So I'm not sure what your point is in saying this. Do you want to elaborate? I feel like if you look at that link, and specifically the numbers it reports, this rejoinder is kind of meaningless.
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some other meaningful numbers that aren't partisan:

He also made gains among those with a high school education, 54% of whom back him now, compared with 42% last month. And among those at the lower end of the income spectrum, with his approval climbing 13 points to 38% among adults with annual household incomes below $30,000.

Perhaps also reflecting the fallout from the Kavanaugh drama, Trump's support among men jumped 9 points to 49%.

Trump's net favorability improved somewhat this month as well, although it's still well in negative territory. It went from -19 last month (36% favorable, 55% unfavorable), to -16 (38% favorable, 54% unfavorable).

The broader IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index shows Trump gaining almost 7% to 43.1. That's higher than his 41.3 average for this index which includes questions regarding leadership, favorability and approval since he took office.

Also consider the distribution of Democrats vs Republicans and then look at the Senate map
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No the worst thing is an innocent mans life, family, career, & reputation was ruined
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Balrog0 posted...

So I'm not sure what your point is in saying this. Do you want to elaborate?

That the gains made by Republican enthusiasm in these polls are in absolute terms, but whatever benefit this may have for the GOP is dampened if not erased by the way in which Kavanaugh's presence motivates Democrats/alienates moderates. The full data is more complicated than the "this is great for Republicans narrative"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

But one hint comes from polls that publish both registered- and likely-voter results; the difference between these numbers is a good measure of the enthusiasm gap or turnout gap. Currently, were showing that likely voter polls are only about 0.4 percentage better for Republicans than registered-voter polls. Thats much smaller than the typical gap between likely- and registered-voter polls, which usually favors Republicans by anywhere from 1 to 6 percentage points in midterm years, reflecting that Democrats tend to rely on minority and young voters who dont always turn out at the midterms. It is, however, slightly improved for Republicans from the numbers we were seeing earlier this year, when there wasnt any gap at all on average between registered- and likely-voter polls. To complicate matters, Republicans are generally doing worse in district-level polls than youd expect them to do in generic ballot polls, even though district polls are almost always conducted among likely voters. One possibility is that Kavanaugh is helping with Republican base turnout, but also hurting the GOP among swing voters with a high propensity to turn out, such as suburban women.

Overall, Im inclined to conclude theres actually something there for Republicans that their position has genuinely improved from where it was a week ago (although, not necessarily as compared to where it was a month ago). But Im also wary of the idea that this is necessarily a turning point, since it wouldnt take much a couple of good generic ballot polls for Democrats, plus a handful of good state-level results in places like North Dakota to reverse the GOP gains in our forecast. There is truth in the idea that Republicans have had a decent week of polling, but it can also be exaggerated by cherry-picking data thats consistent with a particular narrative.

Finally, it should go without saying that this is still a dynamic situation, and it doesnt necessarily follow that the party that wins the battle over Kavanaugh will benefit electorally. The opposite could prove true. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted earlier this week found that more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was confirmed but also, more voters would be angry than enthusiastic if Kavanaugh was not confirmed. Whichever party doesnt get its way on Kavanaugh will have more reason to feel aggrieved and perhaps more motivation to turn out to vote.

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Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

You say its the worst part like you arent on the right Coffee

Sorry, I don't ally with religious fundies and psychotic man children.

You literally did when you kept kept defending Kavanaugh even when people repeatedly ripped holes in your arguments

Also Libertarian Party in the US leans right

not once did I ever defend Kavanaugh as political views. I've made it very clear from the very beginning that I disagreed with him and thought he did not belong on the Supreme Court. All I defended was his right to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise. And as far as I'm concerned, they've done a very poor job of proving otherwise. I realize that's not politically expedient for Democrats, but that's how Justice works.

Its funny how you get attacked from both the libs and conservatives on this site claiming you are the opposite.
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Antifar posted...

That the gains made by Republican enthusiasm in these polls are in absolute terms, but whatever benefit this may have for the GOP is dampened if not erased by the way in which Kavanaugh's presence motivates Democrats/alienates moderates

Meanwhile, the Democrats' advantage on the "generic ballot" question has all but disappeared. This asks only registered voters whether they'd prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats or Republicans after the midterm elections in November.

The latest poll shows that 45% say they'd prefer Democrats in control, while 43% say they want the GOP to retain control of Congress.

This is a huge swing from last month, which had the Democrats up by 11 points over Republicans (50% to 39%).

I don't think you're being careful in either reading or reasoning about this. Any other thoughts?
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Not surprisingly, Republicans have grown more emphatic about keeping control. Support for a GOP Congress among registered Republicans climbed from 86% last month to 92% this month.

But independents shifted toward the GOP as well, with 37% backing a GOP Congress, up from 30% last month. Support among independents for a Democratic Congress dropped from 49% last month to 41% in October.

The IBD/TIPP Poll did find that Democrats have a slight advantage when it comes to enthusiasm about the election. Eighty three percent say they are very or extremely interested in the midterms, compared with 74% for Republicans, and 72% for independents.

like I expect this from some users but short, glib responses that clearly didn't read the source material is kind of disappointing from you @Antifar
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The worst part is the DNC lack of respect for our due process and tried to make it guilty until proven innocent.

It's sickening what the DNC has done. They treated Kavy like crap.
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My thoughts are that that is one poll; here's one that shows the opposite happening:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/409727-poll-democrats-lead-by-5-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats have expanded their lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot to 5 percentage points as the midterm campaign enters its final month, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Economist/YouGov poll showed that 45 percent of voters said they support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

The poll showed Democrats with a slightly larger lead than an Economist/YouGov survey from a month ago, when the GOP trailed by just 2 percentage points.

I also think that the surge of enthusiasm may dissipate if and when Kavanaugh gets confirmed.
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Zodd3224 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

Coffeebeanz posted...

Alpha218 posted...

You say its the worst part like you arent on the right Coffee

Sorry, I don't ally with religious fundies and psychotic man children.

You literally did when you kept kept defending Kavanaugh even when people repeatedly ripped holes in your arguments

Also Libertarian Party in the US leans right

not once did I ever defend Kavanaugh as political views. I've made it very clear from the very beginning that I disagreed with him and thought he did not belong on the Supreme Court. All I defended was his right to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise. And as far as I'm concerned, they've done a very poor job of proving otherwise. I realize that's not politically expedient for Democrats, but that's how Justice works.

Its funny how you get attacked from both the libs and conservatives on this site claiming you are the opposite.

I don't understand how arguing for objectivity and fairness can be considered in any way political, so it's been kind of an eye opener to me.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

I don't understand how arguing for objectivity and fairness can be considered in any way political, so it's been kind of an eye opener to me.

Most people lack logic & reasoning, they are blinded by their emotions.

We're going to need the Vulcans to save us.
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Balrog0 posted...

Also consider the distribution of Democrats vs Republicans and then look at the Senate map

Democrats were never going to win the Senate though. If they are able to only lose a net one or two seats after the midterms it's absolutely a victory when you consider back in 2016 it looked like they could lose upwards of 5+ seats. They would have had to have a perfect night and win all the toss ups to even take a +1 margin, let alone keep an even split.

And with how fast paced the news cycle is we need to see how things shake out this last month before getting a definitive idea on how the final results will shake out. Obviously the Kavanaugh hearings were going to motivate the Republican base, but considering the very likelihood he gets approved(something that really was never in doubt), we still have an entire month of news cycles to temper the motivation and rage from both sides.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

I don't understand how arguing for objectivity and fairness can be considered in any way political, so it's been kind of an eye opener to me.

SIDES, SIDES, SIDES! You have to pick a side, you have to pick a side, everyone must pick a side because there has to be constant in-fighting amongst the human race.
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HypnoCoosh posted...

The worst part is the DNC lack of respect for our due process and tried to make it guilty until proven innocent.

It's sickening what the DNC has done. They treated Kavy like crap.

Kavanaugh was a shit option for reasons well before the allegations. You'd think a conspiracy theorist like yourself wouldn't be so supportive of a man who directly was involved in crafting and implementing the PATRIOT Act, yet I suppose much like your hero Alex Jones you've just gone completely partisan. Shameful, really.
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The Great Muta 22 posted...

If they are able to only lose a net one or two seats after the midterms it's absolutely a victory when you consider back in 2016 it looked like they could lose upwards of 5+ seats.

That's not a victory, it's just a less severe defeat
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Antifar posted...

My thoughts are that that is one poll; here's one that shows the opposite happening:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/409727-poll-democrats-lead-by-5-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats have expanded their lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot to 5 percentage points as the midterm campaign enters its final month, according to a poll released Wednesday.

The Economist/YouGov poll showed that 45 percent of voters said they support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

The poll showed Democrats with a slightly larger lead than an Economist/YouGov survey from a month ago, when the GOP trailed by just 2 percentage points.

I dunno, seems like highly selective and motivated reasoning to me! These numbers don't even support your original theory of why this would be bad for Republicans. In fact, they don't even report their generic ballot numbers correctly (it was 3% at 44 vs 41 last time vs 5% at 45 vs 40 this time, which is well within the margin of error in a way that the IBDD polls numbers aren't, for instance)

Seems like the most charitable interpretation of that is no significant changes rather than 'this is the opposite case'

The 538 link is good, and it says this is good for the GOP.
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UnholyMudcrab posted...

The Great Muta 22 posted...

If they are able to only lose a net one or two seats after the midterms it's absolutely a victory when you consider back in 2016 it looked like they could lose upwards of 5+ seats.

That's not a victory, it's just a less severe defeat

Well, yeah, obviously. But if you told me back in 2016 that Democrats would only lose 2 Senate seats in a year where they are facing one of the worst maps a political party has ever faced in the midterms, I'd take that every single time.
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I don't think this is all that hard.

I disagree with Kavanaugh's political beliefs and find them antithetical to the Constitution. Do I think he should I be on the SCOTUS? No.

That has no bearing on the fact that his treatment by the media in particular was one of presumed guilt. He was publicly shamed and humiliated without enough solid evidence to warrant it. Even if he wasn't taken to trial, he was branded with a scarlet letter that there is a very real possibility he does not deserve.That's not how America should be.

When the Trevor Noahs and Stephen Colberts of the world lambaste the man for actions they objectively can't state for certain he did, that's the antithesis of the American ethos. Your political views should always be separate from your assumptions of innocence or guilt.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

I don't think this is all that hard.

That has no bearing on the fact that his treatment by the media in particular was one of presumed guilt. He was publicly shamed and humiliated without enough solid evidence to warrant it. Even if he wasn't taken to trial, he was branded with a scarlet letter that there is a very real possibility he does not deserve.That's not how America should be.

the antithesis of the American ethos. Your political views should always be separate from your assumptions of innocence or guilt.

I too long for a world such as this to live in.

Sadly it is nearly impossible with all the lines being drawn nowadays.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

I don't think this is all that hard.

I disagree with Kavanaugh's political beliefs and find them antithetical to the Constitution. Do I think he should I be on the SCOTUS? No.

That has no bearing on the fact that his treatment by the media in particular was one of presumed guilt. He was publicly shamed and humiliated without enough solid evidence to warrant it. Even if he wasn't taken to trial, he was branded with a scarlet letter that there is a very real possibility he does not deserve.That's not how America should be.

When the Trevor Noahs and Stephen Colberts of the world lambaste the man for actions they objectively can't state for certain he did, that's the antithesis of the American ethos. Your political views should always be separate from your assumptions of innocence or guilt.

Why can't you grasp the simple fact that people are allowed to formulate opinions based on what they personally view and feel? It doesn't make them wrong or evil to do so, it's quite naturally a part of being human. Human's don't operate without bias, it's something we all have. It does not confirm nor deny the allegations are true if a person decides, based on what THEY have read and witnesses, that they feel he is guilty.

Humans aren't emotionless robots who take in all information and spit back an objective truth. That is quite literally impossible.
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The Great Muta 22 posted...

Humans aren't emotionless robots who take in all information and spit back an objective truth. That is quite literally impossible.

That's what we need to educate the public in and learn to be more Vulcan like.

Logic, Reasoning, Facts, Ability to view all sides of a problem

over

Emotions, Feelings, Self Gratification.
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Why can't you grasp the simple fact that people are allowed to formulate opinions based on what they personally view and feel? It doesn't make them wrong or evil to do so, it's quite naturally a part of being human. Human's don't operate without bias, it's something we all have. It does not confirm nor deny the allegations are true if a person decides, based on what THEY have read and witnesses, that they feel he is guilty.

Because people choose to read and believe what fits their personal beliefs. They will reject information that is contrary to their preformed bias. To assume criminality based on these biases is fundamentally wrong.
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Coffeebeanz posted...

That has no bearing on the fact that his treatment by the media in particular was one of presumed guilt. He was publicly shamed and humiliated without enough solid evidence to warrant it. Even if he wasn't taken to trial, he was branded with a scarlet letter that there is a very real possibility he does not deserve.That's not how America should be.

I mean you keep saying this.

What about Ford? What does she deserve? To have her voice silenced in a democracy where everyone else gets to speak? To be called a liar and paid democratic shill on national TV by the people actually running the government and not just media journalists? Why is it that you only rush to Kavanaugh's defense and never argue that the congress men are treating Ford poorly.

Can you not agree that it's worse for the government to smear shit over a civilian than it is for the Media to smear shit over a successful circuit judge? Can you not agree punching down at Ford makes it harder for women to come forward with these accusations in general?

And I mean maybe you already agree with these things but I still never see you going to bat for anyone except Kavanaugh.
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What about Ford? What does she deserve? To have her voice silenced in a democracy where everyone else gets to speak? To be called a liar and paid democratic shill on national TV by the people actually running the government and not just media journalists? Why is it that you only rush to Kavanaugh's defense and never argue that the congress men are treating Ford poorly.

I did rush to her defense. Significantly. Maybe you missed it.

In the topic that mentioned when Trump mocked Ford at a rally, I not only called it unacceptable, I called it grounds for impeachment.

I also spent an entire topic arguing that potential rape victims should never EVER be criticized unless their claims are objectively proven to be false, because it's hard enough to get the courage to come forward as it is. We should not be de-incentivizing it by saying you can be mocked for it.
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KamenRiderBlade posted...

The Great Muta 22 posted...

Humans aren't emotionless robots who take in all information and spit back an objective truth. That is quite literally impossible.

That's why we need to educate the public in and learn to be more Vulcan like.

Logic, Reasoning, Facts, Ability to view all sides of a problem

over

Emotions, Feelings, Self Gratification.

It'd be nice in theory, but it also is an impossible goal. You'd be fundamentally going against what it means to be human.

Coffeebeanz posted...

Because people choose to read and believe what fits their personal beliefs. They will reject information that is contrary to their preformed bias. To assume criminality based on these biases is fundamentally wrong .Extending that to late night television grandstanding is just... not acceptable.

It's also wrong to assume that any one person can live their life where they completely remove their own biases in everything and look at every subject matter objectively. The law itself is, in theory anyway, supposed to remove such biases. But an individual? Impossible. I have biases that influence my decisions. As do you. As does every single person walking the Earth.

And it's absolutely acceptable for late night show hosts to formulate their own opinion based on what they have seen and how they feel about a subject matter. No one is forced to agree with them. They are making a claim on their own platform. To try and censor such is far more not acceptable.
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I have biases that influence my decisions. As do you. As does every single person walking the Earth.

Of course. But nobody should allow their bias to be so strong that they can say, with a straight face and without doubt, that someone is guilty of a crime for which there is objective doubt.
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Well okay then I missed that.
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It's not even the correct "right"... It's stupid neocons and nazis. The worst members of that entire political slant.
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Tyranthraxus posted...

Well okay then I missed that.

No problem. I just want to make it clear - Ford shouldn't be mocked or punished for a claim she can't prove. That is fundamentally wrong. Worse, it sends the wrong message that you always have to be 100% sure you can prove something before you make the accusation. That's totally inappropriate.

In this case, I think the most appropriate conclusion is to treat both Ford and Kavanaugh with respect and dignity - at least as far as this accusation goes.
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Tyranthraxus posted...

To have her voice silenced in a democracy where everyone else gets to speak?

She got speak, speak so loudly that the entire world heard her.

To be called a liar and paid democratic shill on national TV by the people actually running the government and not just media journalists?

Government Officials are people and have opinions of their own too!

Why is it that you only rush to Kavanaugh's defense and never argue that the congress men are treating Ford poorly.

So what do you expect the Congressmen to do? Expect to treat Kavanaugh as Guilty until Proven innocent by her allegations? We live in a society that presumes "Innocent until Proven Guilty". That's the standard we should treat everybody with, regardless of personal feelings about said person.

Can you not agree that it's worse for the government to smear shit over a civilian than it is for the Media to smear shit over a successful circuit judge?

She could've taken this issue up many times with the authorities long before he became even a circuit judge, why did she come out now after so many years? The timing is awfully conspicuous. Her testimony isn't even consistent.

Can you not agree punching down at Ford makes it harder for women to come forward with these accusations in general?

And false accusations ruins lives needlessly and hurts the cases for real victims of sexual assault.

And I mean maybe you already agree with these things but I still never see you going to bat for anyone except Kavanaugh

She goes to bat for countless people.
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The Great Muta 22 posted...

And it's absolutely acceptable for late night show hosts to formulate their own opinion based on what they have seen and how they feel about a subject matter. No one is forced to agree with them. They are making a claim on their own platform. To try and censor such is far more not acceptable.

This isn't China, Big celebrities don't just go missing because they say something inappropriate that the ruling party doesn't like.
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