Current Events > The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast is out

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ElatedVenusaur 09/12/18 4:58:33 PM #1:	https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/ Basically, the Republicans are likely to lose 1-2 seats, as things stand, which would leave them in control of the Senate. It mostly has to do with the fact that the Senate seats that are up are, collectively, extremely favorable to Republicans(they only control 8 of the 35 up. The Dems or Dem-caucusing Independents control the other 27). So, check it out. Nate Silver and his team do great work. <cite>ElatedVenusaur posted [p:908616400] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/ Basically, the Republicans are likely to lose 1-2 seats, as things stand, which would leave them in control of the Senate. It mostly has to do with the fact that the Senate seats that are up are, collectively, extremely favorable to Republicans(they only control 8 of the 35 up. The Dems or Dem-caucusing Independents control the other 27). So, check it out. Nate Silver and his team do great work.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
lifeamovie 09/12/18 4:59:30 PM #2:	blue rain drop wheres that pepe meme --- What makes a man turn neutral? <cite>lifeamovie posted [p:908616458] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>blue rain drop wheres that pepe meme</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Bloodychess 09/12/18 5:00:09 PM #3:	ElatedVenusaur posted... Nate Silver and his team do great work. --- To err is human To arr is pirate <cite>Bloodychess posted [p:908616488] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>ElatedVenusaur posted...</cite> <quote>Nate Silver and his team do great work.</quote> </quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 09/12/18 5:01:23 PM #4:	Harry Enten said earlier today on twitter that he's starting to suspect Dems don't pick up any senate seats at all due to the relatively good poll numbers in certain key states that otherwise had seemed to be in play (e.g., Arizona, where Sinema has gone from beating McSally consistently to consistently being behind her) --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:908616561] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>Harry Enten said earlier today on twitter that he's starting to suspect Dems don't pick up any senate seats at all due to the relatively good poll numbers in certain key states that otherwise had seemed to be in play (e.g., Arizona, where Sinema has gone from beating McSally consistently to consistently being behind her)</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AlephZero 09/12/18 5:03:43 PM #5:	66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. --- "life is overrated" - Seiichi Omori 01001100 01010101 01000101 00100000 00110100 00110000 00110010 <cite>AlephZero posted [p:908616682] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 09/12/18 5:05:19 PM #6:	AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. seems super low to me too --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:908616763] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> seems super low to me too</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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darkprince45 09/12/18 5:15:15 PM #8:	The blue wave --- Cubs, Rockies, Grizzlies, Patriots. <cite>darkprince45 posted [p:908617293] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>The blue wave</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
ElatedVenusaur 09/12/18 5:15:42 PM #9:	Balrog0 posted... AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. seems super low to me too It may be the model is bullish on the prospects of Beto O'Rourke(TX) and Phil Bredesen(TN). There may also not be much polling data on certain vulnerable incumbent Democrats, and thus the model is weighting those races primarily based on other factors. In any case, now is when most voters start paying attention to races. <cite>ElatedVenusaur posted [p:908617319] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> seems super low to me too</quote> It may be the model is bullish on the prospects of Beto O'Rourke(TX) and Phil Bredesen(TN). There may also not be much polling data on certain vulnerable incumbent Democrats, and thus the model is weighting those races primarily based on other factors. In any case, now is when most voters start paying attention to races.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BignutzisBack 09/12/18 5:15:59 PM #10:	darkprince45 posted... The blue wave --- https://imgur.com/plA0Vg9 http://i.minus.com/iluvk8aR4mzC8.gif <cite>BignutzisBack posted [p:908617335] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>darkprince45 posted...</cite> <quote>The blue wave</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Balrog0 09/12/18 5:17:06 PM #11:	ElatedVenusaur posted... It may be the model is bullish on the prospects of Beto O'Rourke(TX) and Phil Bredesen(TN). There may also not be much polling data on certain vulnerable incumbent Democrats, and thus the model is weighting those races primarily based on other factors. In any case, now is when most voters start paying attention to races. for sure, they only now started releasing poll numbers in my state (not that it matters here, but yeah) --- But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. <cite>Balrog0 posted [p:908617396] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>ElatedVenusaur posted...</cite> <quote>It may be the model is bullish on the prospects of Beto O'Rourke(TX) and Phil Bredesen(TN). There may also not be much polling data on certain vulnerable incumbent Democrats, and thus the model is weighting those races primarily based on other factors. In any case, now is when most voters start paying attention to races.</quote> for sure, they only now started releasing poll numbers in my state (not that it matters here, but yeah)</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
s0nicfan 09/12/18 5:22:20 PM #12:	Balrog0 posted... AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. seems super low to me too Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest. --- "History Is Much Like An Endless Waltz. The Three Beats Of War, Peace And Revolution Continue On Forever." - Gundam Wing: Endless Waltz <cite>s0nicfan posted [p:908617645] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> seems super low to me too</quote> Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AlephZero 09/12/18 5:34:00 PM #13:	With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future. --- "life is overrated" - Seiichi Omori 01001100 01010101 01000101 00100000 00110100 00110000 00110010 <cite>AlephZero posted [p:908618271] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Zero_Destroyer 09/12/18 5:36:55 PM #14:	s0nicfan posted... Balrog0 posted... AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. seems super low to me too Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest. dems have an atrocious map to work with --- Enjoy movies and television? Check out my blog! I do reviews and analyses. http://fictionrantreview.wordpress.com/ (The Force Awakens spoiler review up!) <cite>Zero_Destroyer posted [p:908618427] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>s0nicfan posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> seems super low to me too</quote> Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest.</quote> dems have an atrocious map to work with</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MeowMix101 09/12/18 5:37:17 PM #15:	truthfully if accurate it paves way for 3rd party to take over the dems and after that a another 3rd party to replace Republicans the time for both sides to end hopefully is soon --- "If we open a quarrel between past and present, we shall find that we have lost the future." Winston Churchill <cite>MeowMix101 posted [p:908618450] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>truthfully if accurate it paves way for 3rd party to take over the dems and after that a another 3rd party to replace Republicans the time for both sides to end hopefully is soon</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Rad_Chad 09/12/18 5:37:31 PM #16:	the dnc is too fucking stupid to do anything but look up and drown during a storm hillary was so fucking hated trump actually won the election and they were floored by the outcome. they're like those people who just like an idea and then believe what they want regardless of how well it will go. trump would've lost to bernie, but he's not corrupt so donors weren't interested...... republicans will eventually turn on trump. it's not like all or maybe even most like him. the bushes, koch bros, etc. clearly don't like him --- Female body inspector and motorboating enthusiast. <cite>Rad_Chad posted [p:908618457] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>the dnc is too fucking stupid to do anything but look up and drown during a storm hillary was so fucking hated trump actually won the election and they were floored by the outcome. they're like those people who just like an idea and then believe what they want regardless of how well it will go. trump would've lost to bernie, but he's not corrupt so donors weren't interested...... republicans will eventually turn on trump. it's not like all or maybe even most like him. the bushes, koch bros, etc. clearly don't like him</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
s0nicfan 09/12/18 5:37:40 PM #17:	AlephZero posted... With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future. It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic. --- "History Is Much Like An Endless Waltz. The Three Beats Of War, Peace And Revolution Continue On Forever." - Gundam Wing: Endless Waltz <cite>s0nicfan posted [p:908618463] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future.</quote> It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
AlephZero 09/12/18 5:41:09 PM #18:	s0nicfan posted... AlephZero posted... With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future. It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic. In probability theory what someone "seems to think" based on their gut is effectively worthless information. --- "life is overrated" - Seiichi Omori 01001100 01010101 01000101 00100000 00110100 00110000 00110010 <cite>AlephZero posted [p:908618634] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>s0nicfan posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future.</quote> It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic.</quote> In probability theory what someone "seems to think" based on their gut is effectively worthless information.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
s0nicfan 09/12/18 5:41:53 PM #19:	AlephZero posted... s0nicfan posted... AlephZero posted... With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future. It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic. In probability theory what someone "seems to think" based on their gut is effectively worthless information. Then why did you say this: AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. --- "History Is Much Like An Endless Waltz. The Three Beats Of War, Peace And Revolution Continue On Forever." - Gundam Wing: Endless Waltz <cite>s0nicfan posted [p:908618677] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote><cite>s0nicfan posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>With independent events like elections whether or not something almost always happened in the past doesn't have any bearing on the probability of it happening in the future.</quote> It does if you're evaluating whether a reported percentage "seems low" or not, since your perception of what is low or high is altered by the historical relevance of that statistic.</quote> In probability theory what someone "seems to think" based on their gut is effectively worthless information.</quote> Then why did you say this: <cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote></quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWing 09/12/18 5:47:23 PM #20:	s0nicfan posted... Balrog0 posted... AlephZero posted... 66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought. seems super low to me too Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest. You're not taking the spread of seats that are up for grabs into account. The House will be the indicator of whether or not there's a wave because all seats are up. <cite>BWing posted [p:908618999] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>s0nicfan posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Balrog0 posted...</cite> <quote><cite>AlephZero posted...</cite> <quote>66% probability of Republicans holding the Senate is lower than I would have thought.</quote> seems super low to me too</quote> Doesn't the senate nearly always flip during midterms against the incumbent party? 66% seems too high, to be honest.</quote> You're not taking the spread of seats that are up for grabs into account. The House will be the indicator of whether or not there's a wave because all seats are up.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Zero_Destroyer 09/12/18 5:47:33 PM #21:	my overall impression of this is that it's too confident that Dems will hold certain seats like it calls nevada/florida as tossup, which is good, but somehow lists heitkamp as adv. dem even though she's distantly the most vulnerable dem --- Enjoy movies and television? Check out my blog! I do reviews and analyses. http://fictionrantreview.wordpress.com/ (The Force Awakens spoiler review up!) <cite>Zero_Destroyer posted [p:908619008] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>my overall impression of this is that it's too confident that Dems will hold certain seats like it calls nevada/florida as tossup, which is good, but somehow lists heitkamp as adv. dem even though she's distantly the most vulnerable dem</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Alpha218 09/12/18 5:51:32 PM #22:	Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November --- I'm Commander Shepard, and this is my favorite user on the Citadel. https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/1349-mario Now Playing: Rainbow 6: Siege, Skyrim, Okami <cite>Alpha218 posted [p:908619222] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
BWing 09/12/18 5:54:18 PM #23:	Alpha218 posted... Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November Senate was never part of anyone's "blue wave" description besides idiots who don't understand statistics or politics. 2020 will be the wave in the Senate if things keep going as they are going. <cite>BWing posted [p:908619369] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>Alpha218 posted...</cite> <quote>Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November</quote> Senate was never part of anyone's "blue wave" description besides idiots who don't understand statistics or politics. 2020 will be the wave in the Senate if things keep going as they are going.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
MelbuFrahma4 09/12/18 5:56:53 PM #24:	I never get how these polls work. Who tells strangers who they are going to vote for to get these numbers. --- "We'll never see Day-Lewis and Kubrick, or Kurosawa and Eastwood, but we have seen Bale and Nolan, a cinematic dream pairing come to life!" <cite>MelbuFrahma4 posted [p:908619484] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>I never get how these polls work. Who tells strangers who they are going to vote for to get these numbers.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
The Great Muta 22 09/12/18 6:05:50 PM #25:	BWing posted... Alpha218 posted... Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November Senate was never part of anyone's "blue wave" description besides idiots who don't understand statistics or politics. 2020 will be the wave in the Senate if things keep going as they are going. Oh come on, who let's silly things like facts get in the way of their shit posting? Yeah, this is about what I expected. Actually seems better for Dems than I thought it would be in some spots, but that's more to do with the weakness of specific Repubs who probably will still hold on in the end. I'm interested in seeing the Gubernatorial forecast eventually, as I have a strong feeling that's going to look real good for Dems --- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXezjbuzh14 <cite>The Great Muta 22 posted [p:908619952] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote><cite>BWing posted...</cite> <quote><cite>Alpha218 posted...</cite> <quote>Love all of the people in this topic that gleefully ignore the fact that the blue wave is supposed to happen in the House, where all of the seats are voted on every 2 years instead of the Senate which has 6 year terms (aka 33% voted on every 2 years, with the states in play heavily favoring the GOP at the moment) Hope reality doesnt hit you too hard in November</quote> Senate was never part of anyone's "blue wave" description besides idiots who don't understand statistics or politics. 2020 will be the wave in the Senate if things keep going as they are going.</quote> Oh come on, who let's silly things like facts get in the way of their shit posting? Yeah, this is about what I expected. Actually seems better for Dems than I thought it would be in some spots, but that's more to do with the weakness of specific Repubs who probably will still hold on in the end. I'm interested in seeing the Gubernatorial forecast eventually, as I have a strong feeling that's going to look real good for Dems</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
Doom_Art 09/13/18 3:35:35 PM #26:	I'm surprised with how the model shows Tennessee and Texas being so close. To the point where they're in "toss-up" or only "lean R" range Definitely a more generous outlook for Dems than I expected given the atrocious map they have to work with. --- Not removing this until Mega Man 64 is released on the Wii Virtual Console. Started on: 12/1/2009 https://imgur.com/mPvcy <cite>Doom_Art posted [p:908677009] in The FiveTh... [t:76995017]...</cite> <quote>I'm surprised with how the model shows Tennessee and Texas being so close. To the point where they're in "toss-up" or only "lean R" range Definitely a more generous outlook for Dems than I expected given the atrocious map they have to work with.</quote> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Current Events > The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast is out (+) Yeah! (+)

Current Events > The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast is out