Current Events > Coin Toss Probability - Always 50%?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Discuss. Having an argument about Conditional Probability with a friend now. Lol
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unless theres a physical attribute that skews the probability of landing on a particular side then id say its always 50/50
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50/50 the first coin flip. Not the second.
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it's always 50/50

it's either heads, or it isnt
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first toss is 50%
then later tosses after the first depending on which landed would have their probability changed.
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not exactly, but close enough most of the time. a virtual coin would have the computer RNG issue. a physical one has several -- inconsistent flipping motion, uneven weight balance, even the incredibly unlikely event of ending on edge.
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A coin toss is second only to a dice roll in being the quintessential independent event.

Yes it's always 50%.
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I imagine it's the thing of "what are the odds of getting tails on the second toss if you first get heads," or something in that vein?
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It's a 51% chance on whichever side it started on before flipping.
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An individual coin toss is always 50%, yes.

So if the question is "What is the probability of getting heads?", it'll always be 50%.

But if the posed question is "What is the probability of getting heads 3 times in a row?", then it won't be 50%.
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it's possible to land on the side so it's not 50/50
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The edge.
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Foppe posted...

The edge.

I was going to say this. There is a small chance it'll land on the edge. But then it would probably just fall over onto a side.
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what about the possibility that a huge demon eviscerates it with its laser eye before it lands. hate how math books never consider this
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We're not doing your homework for you!
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Sariana21 posted...

We're not doing your homework for you!

Lol
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The weight differs from each side of the coin; the heads side weighs a little more, so it's more like 50.00000000000000000000000000000000001 to 49.999999999999999999999999999999999 in favor of heads
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Muffinz0rz posted...

the heads side weighs a little more

Which means it's more likely to be on the bottom. Tails is the more likely result by a minuscule factor.
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Depends on which side weighs more. If they are equal then yes the probability is always 50/50.
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I feel like this would be a good con.

Find someone that doesn't realize each flip is independent or they're just superstitious and then flip it until it hits head 5 times in a row, then try to get them to give you positive odds on a wager.
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Just a simple toss? Yes. It's either heads or tails. I've never seen a coin stay on it's side. For it to land heads 6/9 times is a different chance.
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Casino dice are the only truly fair dice.
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There's nothing 50:50 about a coin toss.

Maybe a coin spin would be more accurate.
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SpinKirby posted...

There's nothing 50:50 about a coin toss.

Maybe a coin spin would be more accurate.

I think it's been argued that a coin toss cannot be biased but a coin spin can.
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Powerful Firas Zahabi talked about this on JRE yesterday.
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I suck at math
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COVxy posted...

SpinKirby posted...

There's nothing 50:50 about a coin toss.

Maybe a coin spin would be more accurate.

I think it's been argued that a coin toss cannot be biased but a coin spin can.

Damn, well fuck me then.

I'm talking about practicing coin flipping.
Like getting to know your own finger strength would give you consistent results, but I'm pretty sure nobody does that, unless they coin flip and bet on that regularly.
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For all intents and purposes, the chances of getting a heads on a single coin flip are 50%
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SpinKirby posted...

COVxy posted...

SpinKirby posted...

There's nothing 50:50 about a coin toss.

Maybe a coin spin would be more accurate.

I think it's been argued that a coin toss cannot be biased but a coin spin can.

Damn, well fuck me then.

I'm talking about practicing coin flipping.
Like getting to know your own finger strength would give you consistent results, but I'm pretty sure nobody does that, unless they coin flip and bet on that regularly.

Two-face's secret revealed.

I'd run
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philsov posted...

Muffinz0rz posted...

the heads side weighs a little more

Which means it's more likely to be on the bottom. Tails is the more likely result by a minuscule factor.

right, my bad
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Fenrimis posted...

50/50 the first coin flip. Not the second.

If the two coin flips are independent events, then yes, the second flip would also be 50/50.
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