Current Events > GOP tax bill will turn Texas and Georgia blue

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/opinion/sunday/republican-taxes-texas-blue.html

it's not a ridiculous hypothesis but we'll see! basically the author argues that the end of state tax deductions makes red states relatively more attractive to new college graduates (which they already were because of lower costs in general) which means places like Atlanta and Austin will become even bigger magnets for millenials than they are already
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No, Texas or Georgia (or Arizona for that matter) have very little chance of turning blue
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Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.
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I love how NY Times and the like are always coming up with theories like this to try and hide the fact that the democrat party is basically dead at this point, and they're just angry fools sitting there refusing to do anything, because they're more interested in their hatred of Trump than they are about making America great.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.

Texas is interesting in that it's actually really diverse. Texas has some of the biggest cities as well as some of the smallest cities. And Texas has been attracting the attention of silicion valley and many tech companies are building up in some of the places like Houston.

Honestly, Texas is in a prime state that could turn blue with the growth it has been seeing lately.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.

This isnt even close to true.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.

Trump has an approval of 41% there. It's not as red as Alabama, which Democrats just won in.
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Genocet_10-325 posted...

P4wn4g3 posted...

Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.

Trump has an approval of 41% there. It's not as red as Alabama, which Democrats just won in.

I really think the Democrats are overstating the importance of their Alabama win. It really only happened because the GOP ran an unelectable candidate with multiple campaign-crushing scandals (admittedly if the Republicans keep doing this, the Dems might stand a chance)
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Right, because the New York Times said so.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/18/podcasts/is-this-election-over.html

Is This Election Over?

The math is grim for Donald J. Trump: His rival, Hillary Clinton, has a 90 percent chance of winning the election, as of Monday afternoon.

Wait, sorry make that 91 percent, as of Monday night (and 92 percent as of Tuesday afternoon). It just keeps getting worse for him.
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Texas has been on track to turn blue within the next couple of decades, regardless of policies
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r4X0r posted...

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.

So does Russian Roulette.
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Getting sick of idiots posting dumb shit about polls without understanding how they work.

r4X0r posted...

Right, because the New York Times said so.

it is an op ed by a libertarian
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FL81 posted...

No, Texas or Georgia (or Arizona for that matter) have very little chance of turning blue

this, who ever seriously thinks Texas is turning Blue has got to be some of the most misinformed creatures on the planet
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r4X0r posted...

Right, because the New York Times said so.

"OPINION
The Republican Tax Bill Could Turn Texas Blue"

don't let their certainty fool you
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It's very hard to ignore that Clinton gained huge ground in Texas in 2016 compared to Obama by around 500k votes. With Trump's approval rating in the toilet here it's not unbelievable to suggest that, if Trump became unpopular enough, he'd lose the state.

FL81 posted...

I really think the Democrats are overstating the importance of their Alabama win. It really only happened because the GOP ran an unelectable candidate with multiple campaign-crushing scandals (admittedly if the Republicans keep doing this, the Dems might stand a chance)

The problem with this is that Jones won in a +30 area and polling prior to the scandal had Moore at around +10-ish. From what I gather, it was:

-Moore being unlikable in general
-Republicans performing poorly consistently since the 2016 election in special elections, even cases where they won (e.g. strong Trump districts going red narrowly)
-The scandals finally hitting him

Texas's demographic shifts are going to trend Texas to where it's on the map in the future in a way Alabama couldn't consistently be. There's electoral data to back that trend, the question really is "when?".

For consideration: Texas is as Red now as Michigan was Blue in 2012.
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CEs_EFG posted...

FL81 posted...

No, Texas or Georgia (or Arizona for that matter) have very little chance of turning blue

this, who ever seriously thinks Texas is turning Blue has got to be some of the most misinformed creatures on the planet

The only people who actually believe that are people who have never been to Texas. There's absolutely no chance of this ever happening. Texas isn't the same as other super Christian Republican states. That is still a thing here, but it's mostly about being gun loving hard working people. Democrats being anti-gun is reason enough alone that this will never happen. Texans love their guns and low taxes.
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however I want to add that Texas is ultimately irrelevant, if Trump is losing Texas then he's losing a lot of very important states by much larger margins. It's the difference between a clear defeat and a landslide.
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This article leans a bit too much on the "demography = destiny" theory a lot of liberals embraced following 2012: this idea that demographic shifts will inevitably secure Democratic electoral dominance. That may still come to pass. But too many Democrats (and I realize the author is not one) have been content to rely on that, rather than do the hard work of politics and winning people over.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Texas is the epitome of the US Republican state. You'd have to turn every other place in the world blue first then take them over by force to change anything.

Or you could just let a nearby blue state get destroyed in a hurricane and then have all the refugees left for dead come in and swing the vote
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Antifar posted...

This article leans a bit too much on the "demography = destiny" theory a lot of liberals embraced following 2012: this idea that demographic shifts will inevitably secure Democratic electoral dominance. That may still come to pass. But too many Democrats (and I realize the author is not one) have been content to rely on that than do the hard work of politics.

Honestly. Texas is a probably a strong state that could switch blue if the tech industry continues to grow there. But I wouldn't expect the switch to happen for the next few elections.
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Howl posted...

The only people who actually believe that are people who have never been to Texas. There's absolutely no chance of this ever happening. Texas isn't the same as other super Christian Republican states. That is still a thing here, but it's mostly about being gun loving hard working people. Democrats being anti-gun is reason enough alone that this will never happen. Texans love their guns and low taxes.

I live in Texas.

Like I said, Dems on a weak year made an 8% gain in the state in 2016.
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Trump only got 52.2% of the vote in Texas. It finally turning blue is not unfeasible. Though I dread it happening, the whining down here would be unbearable.

FL81 posted...

It really only happened because the GOP ran an unelectable candidate with multiple campaign-crushing scandals

And yet he still got almost 50% of the vote.
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r4X0r posted...

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win

And? Do you understand how percentages work?

Antifar posted...

This article leans a bit too much on the "demography = destiny" theory a lot of liberals embraced following 2012

yeah, I strongly agree with you there
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Zero_Destroyer posted...

Howl posted...

The only people who actually believe that are people who have never been to Texas. There's absolutely no chance of this ever happening. Texas isn't the same as other super Christian Republican states. That is still a thing here, but it's mostly about being gun loving hard working people. Democrats being anti-gun is reason enough alone that this will never happen. Texans love their guns and low taxes.

I live in Texas.

Like I said, Dems on a weak year made an 8% gain in the state in 2016.

Trump won the state by 9% lol.
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Howl posted...

Trump won the state by 9% lol.

anything under a 10% margin is considered winnable in my political experience, though that is the very upper bound and considers incredibly bad candidates so depending on how bad you think Trump was that might still be a good response lol
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Zero_Destroyer posted...

Howl posted...

The only people who actually believe that are people who have never been to Texas. There's absolutely no chance of this ever happening. Texas isn't the same as other super Christian Republican states. That is still a thing here, but it's mostly about being gun loving hard working people. Democrats being anti-gun is reason enough alone that this will never happen. Texans love their guns and low taxes.

I live in Texas.

Like I said, Dems on a weak year made an 8% gain in the state in 2016.

https://www.270towin.com/states/Texas

Yeah blue does seem to keep gaining ground in Texas

Howl posted...

Zero_Destroyer posted...

Howl posted...

The only people who actually believe that are people who have never been to Texas. There's absolutely no chance of this ever happening. Texas isn't the same as other super Christian Republican states. That is still a thing here, but it's mostly about being gun loving hard working people. Democrats being anti-gun is reason enough alone that this will never happen. Texans love their guns and low taxes.

I live in Texas.

Like I said, Dems on a weak year made an 8% gain in the state in 2016.

Trump won the state by 9% lol.

And Romney won Texas by 16% in 2012. Not saying it's turning blue any time soon (like 2020/2024 soon) but it is trending that way.

Balrog0 posted...

/opinion/

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The only way Texas and Georgia turn blue is if they hold their breath too long.

not that I doubt it could happen, I feel like people have been saying Texas is gonna turn blue every election year forever
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Howl posted...

Trump won the state by 9% lol.

Obama won Michigan by 10% in 2012.
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Unknown5uspect posted...

And Romney won Texas by 16% in 2012. Not saying it's turning blue any time soon (like 2020/2024 soon) but it is trending that way.

i don't think these people understand trends
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prince_leo posted...

not that I doubt it could happen, I feel like people have been saying Texas is gonna turn blue every election year forever

it literally won't happen in a single election. It'll be a solid battleground for multiple elections before it flips assuming it flips at all.

Democratic voters are increasing in number, regardless. If only millenials voted, literally almost every state would be blue.
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prince_leo posted...

not that I doubt it could happen, I feel like people have been saying Texas is gonna turn blue every election year forever

people have been saying it will turn blue eventually. The data has been trending that way, and no serious person thought it would happen in recent elections, just noticing the gap is closing
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The only way Texas and Georgia turn blue is if they hold their breath too long.

You know how Hispanic surpassed Black as largest minority a few years ago?

They didn't go to Montana.
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DevsBro posted...

The only way Texas and Georgia turn blue is if they hold their breath too long.

You know how Hispanic surpassed Black as largest minority a few years ago?

They didn't go to Montana.

LOL. poor native americans just got stuck with those psychos.

Man, making a bet on Texas staying red is the safest bet ever. You guys been to Texas? Those fuckers are proud of their racism. Everything is "bigger" in Texas, especially egos, grandstanding, flags, dick comparisons, and nationalism. The only exceptions are Austin and El Paso. Austin is a bit of a freak of nature considering its seated in primo racist territory. Anyway. I'm a born Houstoner. Go Astros and all that shit. Remember the Alamo. God, the Texas mantra makes me want to gag. There's a reason why it will stay red, it's the same reason why Utah will keep voting for Mormon politicians.
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It is blue in a lot of urban centers already. Not just Austin. I do think some people get a little too invested into the demographic picture though - Hispanics in Texas usually trend much more conservative than in places like Cali. Down the line, yes, it will likely turn into a toss up state. Partly because of how much out of state migration it gets.
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masticatingman posted...

It is blue in a lot of urban centers already. I do think some people get a little too invested into the demographic picture though - Hispanics in Texas usually trend much more conservative than in places like Cali. Down the line, yes, it will likely turn into a toss up state. Partly because of how much out of state migration it gets.

they vote conservative only for so long as conservatives don't deport their families.
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Tyranthraxus posted...

masticatingman posted...

It is blue in a lot of urban centers already. I do think some people get a little too invested into the demographic picture though - Hispanics in Texas usually trend much more conservative than in places like Cali. Down the line, yes, it will likely turn into a toss up state. Partly because of how much out of state migration it gets.

they vote conservative only for so long as conservatives don't deport their families.

Most Hispanics have been in Texas for generations.
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so the argument against the trending political change (data) is just pointing out Texas stereotypes?
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Fin_Dawg_004 posted...

so the argument against the trending political change (data) is just pointing out Texas stereotypes?

These so called "stereotypes" are facts of living there. You either conform or you're the enemy. I would fucking know. But sure don't take it from the people in this topic familiar with the state.
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P4wn4g3 posted...

I would fucking know. But sure don't take it from the people in this topic familiar with the state.

lol
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P4wn4g3 posted...

Man, making a bet on Texas staying red is the safest bet ever. You guys been to Texas? Those fuckers are proud of their racism. Everything is "bigger" in Texas, especially egos, grandstanding, flags, dick comparisons, and nationalism. The only exceptions are Austin and El Paso. Austin is a bit of a freak of nature considering its seated in primo racist territory. Anyway. I'm a born Houstoner. Go Astros and all that shit. Remember the Alamo. God, the Texas mantra makes me want to gag. There's a reason why it will stay red, it's the same reason why Utah will keep voting for Mormon politicians.

If anything, Houston is proof of why Texas will turn blue. Houston is about as liberal as you can get. Hell, when was the last time they even elected a Republican mayor?
I'm born and raised right outside of Houston, the only red parts of Texas are the empty fields.
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Cowboys fan huh?
How about them stereotypes.
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BLAKUboy posted...

If anything, Houston is proof of why Texas will turn blue. Houston is about as liberal as you can get. Hell, when was the last time they even elected a Republican mayor?
I'm born and raised right outside of Houston, the only red parts of Texas are the empty fields.

and houston, austin, and dallas are also the fastest growing areas in the state. But nope, we all apparently ride horses to work and all wear cowboy hats
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BLAKUboy posted...

the only red parts of Texas are the empty fields.

Texas has a lot of those, tho
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Well TX attracted me here from CA, and I'm red-ish. Not sure how this fits into the statistic though
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