Board 8 > College Football Discussion Week 13 - Rivalry Edition

(+) Yeah! (+)

Miami remains a 100% obvious lock to be in if they beat Clemson there's not even a slight debate here.

ShatteredElysium posted...

The committee also hates UCF but that's been obvious for quite some time.

They have basically mirrored what they did for Western Michigan last year despite this year being weaker at the top and UCF being more impressive than Western Michigan were last year

Yeah this is never going to change though. What's worse for UCF is they blew the doors off of Memphis, but if Memphis beats them by just 1 in the AAC title game, they'll easily pass them.
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Leonhart4 posted...

Miami will jump Bama because they'll have beaten the top ranked team. Auburn just jumped from 6th to 2nd because of it.

No. It is not at all a fact. They hammered Miami. And given what the chairman just said anyone who says that "Miami is guaranteed in" is only using what should be logic instead of this committee...

I'm pretty sure Miami would be top 4. But like 70% so. You people saying 100% are living on a different planet with a different committee.
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Also, reminder that last year no 2 loss conference champion was able to jump a 1 loss team in the final rankings.

Unbeaten Alabama stayed at no 1.
1 loss Clemson jumped from 3 to 2 (jumping non champion 1 loss Ohio State)
1 loss Washington stayed static at 4
2 loss Penn State jumped from 7 to 5 (jumping 3 loss Wisconsin and 2 loss Michigan)
2 loss Oklahoma jumped from 9 to 7 (jumping 3 loss Wisconsin and 3 loss Colorado)

So it's unlikely Ohio State leap from 8 to 4 without Oklahoma losing (I.e. it's unlikely Ohio State jump Alabama) or without them killing Wisconsin.

Honestly I think the committee just wants to set up Clemson v. Alabama in round 1 if at all possible.
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I genuinely don't know what they would do in the event of an Oklahoma loss. Like I know people say we get in if that happens and the optics look bad if someone loses and gets in but Oklahoma beat us comfortably at our own ground.

I mean realistically Oklahoma and Ohio State are even-ish at that point and Oklahoma have the H2H tiebreaker.

I'm still pretty certain Ohio State jumps Alabama if they win. The circumstances this year are different. Penn State didn't jump Ohio State last year because Ohio State beat Oklahoma in OOC while Penn State lost to Pitt. This year, Alabama's the team that hasn't played anyone OOC (I refuse to believe Fresno State counts, despite the fact that they are ranked), and they ALSO don't have a championship. Ohio State would be champions with a better OOC schedule, which the committee has ALWAYS leaned towards rewarding.

ShatteredElysium posted...

I genuinely don't know what they would do in the event of an Oklahoma loss. Like I know people say we get in if that happens and the optics look bad if someone loses and gets in but Oklahoma beat us comfortably at our own ground.

I mean realistically Oklahoma and Ohio State are even-ish at that point and Oklahoma have the H2H tiebreaker.

Ohio State
Miami
TCU

Would be

SEC winner
Alabama
Miami

Fuck.... they might go with Clemson just to avoid what what you are talking about...

Has to be Oklahoma, right?

Iowa State is better than Iowa, and OSU would have lost to them at home.... how do you possibly put them in over Oklahoma?

Maybe in this case TCU gets in somehow, tht would avoid the OSU/OU problem.
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Paratroopa1 posted...

I'm still pretty certain Ohio State jumps Alabama if they win. The circumstances this year are different. Penn State didn't jump Ohio State last year because Ohio State beat Oklahoma in OOC while Penn State lost to Pitt. This year, Alabama's the team that hasn't played anyone OOC (I refuse to believe Fresno State counts, despite the fact that they are ranked), and they ALSO don't have a championship. Ohio State would be champions with a better OOC schedule, which the committee has ALWAYS leaned towards rewarding.

The only thing the committee could have done to personally more show you that OSU isn't jumping Bama would have been making Bama #3 I guess.....

There is literally 0 chance OSU jumps Bama.

Clemson-Bama Sugar
Auburn-Oklahoma in the Rose barring upsets....

Period
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Which puts Alabama in the odd scenario of being the most likely SEC team in. As the only way I can see them not getting in is if Wisconsin and Oklahoma both win?

Odds of Oklahoma loss - 37%
Odds of Wisconsin loss - 56%

Odds of Auburn win - 54%
Odds of Georgia win - 46%

(Unless you believe Ohio State can leap Alabama)

ShatteredElysium posted...

Which puts Alabama in the odd scenario of being the most likely SEC team in. As the only way I can see them not getting in is if Wisconsin wins?

Odds of Wisconsin loss - 56%
Odds of Auburn win - 54%
Odds of Georgia win - 46%

(Unless you believe Ohio State can leap Alabama)

It's like Miss St the first year of the playoff. I remember saying that Miss St. would be better off losing to Bama, because if they win out they would be guaranteed to get in and not have to play a Conference Title game. And that's exactly what happened... but then they blew the most important Egg Bowl there has ever been....
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ShatteredElysium posted...

I genuinely don't know what they would do in the event of an Oklahoma loss. Like I know people say we get in if that happens and the optics look bad if someone loses and gets in but Oklahoma beat us comfortably at our own ground.

I mean realistically Oklahoma and Ohio State are even-ish at that point and Oklahoma have the H2H tiebreaker.

Yeah, I guess we'd see how much the committee values head-to-head in that scenario.
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LeonhartFour posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

I genuinely don't know what they would do in the event of an Oklahoma loss. Like I know people say we get in if that happens and the optics look bad if someone loses and gets in but Oklahoma beat us comfortably at our own ground.

I mean realistically Oklahoma and Ohio State are even-ish at that point and Oklahoma have the H2H tiebreaker.

Yeah, I guess we'd see how much the committee values head-to-head in that scenario.

Almost hope it happens just so we can Finally nail down something, ANYTHING from the committee.

Also, clearly they value head to head, otherwise Auburn would be #1 since their resume murders Clemson...
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I think the committee values being conference champs more than people think they do

The Ohio State vs Penn State situation from last year was more of an exception than the rule

Auburn having 2 losses is the only thing keeping them from being #1, really.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Auburn having 2 losses is the only thing keeping them from being #1, really.

It's who they lost to.

2 losses Auburn is STILL by far the best resume in America. They blow Clemson out of the fucking water.

But they lost to them.
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I mean basically we know:

SEC Champ is in
ACC Champ is in
Oklahoma are in with a win
Wisconsin are in with a win

So you have 1-2 slots to fill with the following if Oklahoma or Wisconsin lose (in order of what I think they would be ranked)

1 loss Alabama
2 loss Clemson
2 loss Oklahoma
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2 loss Ohio State
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3 loss Auburn
1 loss Wisconsin
2 loss Georgia
2 loss Miami
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2 loss TCU
2 loss USC
3 loss Stanford

Anyone below the first dashed line has zero chance going off my order as there's no way for them to make top 4. But the distinction is there as I can see why someone could argue them in.

Anyone below the second dashed line also has no chance but put in that line as I don't think anyone could argue for any of those teams to make it (i.e. they would all be losing this week).

The rest are below the third line because I believe they have no chance but I also think they would leap some teams between the the first and second line but have no idea where I'd actually place them in that cluster.

Nah, if they don't have that Miss. State loss, they're #1 probably.

plus the committee has this odd affection for Clemson so they basically act like the loss to Syracuse never happened
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It would be shocking to me if Miami losing still ended up above TCU with a win

Paratroopa1 posted...

It would be shocking to me if Miami losing still ended up above TCU with a win

Oh I agree, I just don't know where I'd put TCU at that point. I guess just below Ohio State. It just looks odd since they would share losses with Oklahoma and have the most recent win out of that triangle. But you have to punish them for not having as many high ranking wins as Oklahoma and Ohio State right?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

apparently this thing gives USC better odds than Alabama of making the playoffs if Clemson/TCU/Auburn/Ohio State win this weekend

what a weird matchine
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Here's what makes it weirder

Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, UCF win

Ohio State - 39%
Alabama - 33%
USC - 26%
Wisconsin - 1%
UCF - <1%

Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma, Ohio State, USC, Memphis win (I.e. only UCF match flipped)

Ohio State - 44%
Alabama - 27%
USC - 26%
Wisconsin - 2%

I mean I know it's probably due to some sort of SOS algorithm but I honestly cannot see the UCF result impacting the committees decision at all since neither Memphis or UCF played any of the playoff contending teams

The only connection I can see is that UCF played Maryland, but that is such a tenuous connection that I can't understand why it would change anything. I think that's just a mistake in the algorithm

There are some reports floating around that Jeff Brohm (Purdue's coach) is going to accept the Tennessee job.

let's see how angry the fans get this time
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Maybe algorithms are just bull****.
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This has probably been said already, but the ACC, SEC and Big Ten championship games are basically quarterfinals. Alabama is 95% in if TCU wins. The other 5% is for TCU or USC, but they'd have to completely curbstomp their opponent.
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jcgamer107 posted...

This has probably been said already, but the ACC, SEC and Big Ten championship games are basically quarterfinals. Alabama is 95% in if TCU wins. The other 5% is for TCU or USC, but they'd have to completely curbstomp their opponent.

The Big 10 is a quarterfinal with OSU as a proxy for Bama...
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OSU will jump Bama if they win, 100%.
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jcgamer107 posted...

OSU will jump Bama if they win, 100%.

0%
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Good counterpoint
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let's compromise and say 50%
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LeonhartFour posted...

let's compromise and say 50%

Let's compromise and say 5% if OSU wins by 41 points.
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https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/ap-source-oregon-st-hires-former-beavers-qb-smith-as-coach-112917

eh, I'll take it

about as decent of an option as we could hope for
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and now Brohm has supposedly backed out

next target is the NC State coach looks like
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LeonhartFour posted...

and now Brohm has supposedly backed out

next target is the NC State coach looks like

I'm
Sorry dude...
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eh this is exactly how every coaching search has gone since Kiffin left (well except for the rioting when Schiano was hired)

Dooley and Jones were like the fifth choices and that seems to be how far down we're going to go again. Big names don't want this job anymore.
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Hey sometimes your head coach of the future is someone totally unexpected.

Dabo Swinney was like the QBs coach under Tommy Bowden before he took Clemson over.
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I'm not saying it might not work out for the best in the end

just expect more internet rage whenever someone finally does accept the job at this point
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OSU is PROBABLY in if they win.

Bama still hasnt beaten ANYONE.

Mississippi State losing to Ole Miss means their strongest win is over LSU which LOLOLOL
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Mississippi State losing to Ole Miss means their strongest win is over LSU which LOLOLOL

Yeah well at least they BEAT LSU, unlike Auburn...
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LSU is a good win. But yeah, it's their only good one.
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LSU would be a top 10 quality win without that weird loss to Troy, but yeah.
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Eddv posted...

OSU is PROBABLY in if they win.

Bama still hasnt beaten ANYONE.

Mississippi State losing to Ole Miss means their strongest win is over LSU which LOLOLOL

No one agrees with this except OSU
Homers. No one agrees with this who matters except Herbstreit (who is also an OSU homer)
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Most people think the Big Ten championship game winner is in, dude.

It'd be pretty funny if the unnecessary Big XII championship game they just added ended up costing them a spot.
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jcgamer107 posted...

Most people think the Big Ten championship game winner is in, dude.

It'd be pretty funny if the unnecessary Big XII championship game they just added ended up costing them a spot.

They do not.

Both here and Reddit (who is up in arms over it) and ESPN, all agree that OSU is fucked by the vast majority of people. Which makes sense. They totally are. The Horn Frogs need to win for OSU to make it.

Just because Auburn is in with 2 doesn't mean anyone else will be. A 2 loss team isn't making it over 1 loss Bama unless they beat Bama...
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I know these people say margin of victory doesn't matter, but for Ohio State it really really does this week. They can't just beat Wisconsin, they need to destroy them to have a shot.
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SmartMuffin posted...

I know these people say margin of victory doesn't matter, but for Ohio State it really really does this week. They can't just beat Wisconsin, they need to destroy them to have a shot.

I'll say it again. 41.5+ points.
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I mean they won 59-0 last time they absolutely had to win to get in
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LeonhartFour posted...

LSU would be a top 10 quality win without that weird loss to Troy, but yeah.

Yeah but a lot of teams would be top 10 without weird losses

If I don't get to write off Washington's loss to Arizona State in which they missed two less-than-30-yard field goals and lost by 6, Alabama sure as hell doesn't get to write off LSU losing to Troy

https://twitter.com/Lane_Kiffin/status/936028243177754624
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Huh, looks like Herm Edwards is seriously considering the Arizona State job. I didn't figure he'd ever get back into coaching, but I guess he wants to get out of ESPN ahead of the rumored next wave of layoffs.
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